About a week ago, I noticed a commentary on social media in Germany that talked to the idea of what Russia will be like in 2032 (a decade in the future). It's been on my mind for the past week. I tend to see eight things:
1. Western banking to exist in some way within Russia in 2032? No. I think as Russia fails on its bond payments (trying to pay in Rubles)....the banks will send a unified message....they simply won't conduct business with Russia. Maybe the Chinese banks will....but I doubt that this really helps matters in the long run.
2. By the end of 2022....I would suspect near 400,000 Russians (the IT crowd, the science crowd, the Oligarch people with money still existing, the engineer crowd) will have left. Contact will exist with the ones who remained, and the trend for 2023 ought to be in the same number. If you had the non-college crowd in the mix....it wouldn't matter. But with the brightest mostly taking the bulk of this.....it's a problem for the professions that you really need. By 2032, it wouldn't shock me if around two-percent of the total population exited.
3. Russia military merchandise crapping out? If you had a brand, and demonstrations showed it to be crappy.....how would you market it?
4. I think Bitcoin will be more popular in Russia by 2032, than the Ruble itself.
5. At some point, some Ukrainian 'revenge' matter will come up....where some apartment building in Moscow will be blown up, or some natural gas pipeline blown....leading to more war enthusiasm on the part of Russians. But after a while, some Russians will believe the 'revenge' matter is just Kremlin-tricks.
6. A great portion of Russian society will dissolve away their beliefs or trust in the 'news'.....giving up and refusing to believe much of anything other than sports scores.
7. At some point (I expect by 2024)....some classified Kremlin document will appear in social media to suggest that 50,000 men just disappeared in the war period. On paper, they existed....but when the war ceased...no one seemed to know anything about the guys. There will be countless investigations by family members which will lead nowhere.
8. Oil and natural gas flow to Europe will crap out by the end of 2022, and this crazy idea of the China connection working? Where's the extra pipes? You are looking at five to eight years....where a massive China-Russia pipeline has to be envisioned and put into place. Without the Euro income, and trying to survive this period of 'waiting'? It's not a practical matter.
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