Trying To Discuss Russia Economic Issues

 In the past two weeks, I've probably watched forty different economic analysts cover the short-term and long-term landscape for Russia.  Some made sense....some didn't.

The problem here?  If you say the term 'short-term'....it's probably going to develop into three versions: the next six weeks....the next six months....the next twelve months.

If you say the term 'long-term'?  Well....you are probably now talking about the period of 2023, the period until 2027 (next five years) and the next decade (until 2032).

Agriculturally, Russia ought to be putting enough food on the table or into the grocery operations....to make the average Russian happy.  As much as the average American is paying more for the grocery goods....the Russian is probably going to pay 30-percent more over the course of 2022 for their grocery items.

If you were used to French, German or Italian wines?  Well....you (as a Russian) won't be happy.

If you had some affection for McDonalds?  Maybe they substitute some Russian-made Big-Ivan-burger and almost make you happy.

I have five humble beliefs for the remainder of 2022: 

1.  The average Russian will grumble a good bit, but they won't 'suffer'.  

2.  The China market will be able to supply most of their normal needs.

3.  The upper-wealth folks who used to lounge each July in Greece?  They will grumble to a great extent.

4.  The Instagram crowd in Russia who had a real occupation/real income?  Royally screwed, and their income opportunities drop like a rock.  It's hard to see where they land in 2022.  

5.  The Oligarch community will probably start to disappear within Russia (probably one-third of them), and end in places like Thailand, South Africa or Turkey.  They won't say much or publicly grumble....simply existing to hope that one day....things change. 

Long term?  If natural, oil and coal sales lessen....there's going to be some serious long term implications.  I doubt if Putin understands that, or even worries about it.  The next level down in the Kremlin?  Probably thinking the same as Putin.  

The current Russian Finance Minister? Siluanov?  He's been there since 2011, and will be 59 this month.  He's probably shaking his head and will probably lean toward retirement by the end of 2022.