Today is day 56 of the Russian-Ukraine war.
I have this theory....that almost every day....some group of Russian authorities have a teleconference with Putin and they bring up economic issues brewing....unemployment, and massive chaos for existing business operations.
Everyday.....he pushes them back.
I suspect by day 100....if the war hasn't ended.....some folks will suggest that various members of the military need to go, and in the midst of this.....Putin gets put on the list as well.
What has to happen at that point? I would suggest seven things:
1. Putin and the entire top level have to be put out. They probably don't want to accept this, but there's not much of a positive trend to come up....unless they go somewhere.
2. War crimes have to be openly discussed. Maybe you can get by with forty-odd Russian officers went off to life in prison.
3. Russia has to write down some agreement to pay for damages done (probably limiting it to 10-billion Euro a year) but going on for 20-odd years.
4. Some discussion has to start about how to get the 100k to 200k IT workers to come back to Russia. You can't go forward without them in the big picture.
5. Some discussion to start over oil and natural gas sales lost to Europe. Presently, the trend could be stalled to some degree....losing around a quarter to half of the sales. But if we get to the end of 2022....I'm betting on most all oil and natural gas (along with coal) sales to be a lost cause, and those Chinese sales? Well....it might take three years to get that back on line.
6. Finally, someone will have to bring up the hundred-year tradition of propaganda existing in Russia.....with how you rectify this for the future. I'm not suggesting a truth-commission.....but something has to be put on the table to give a different view of reality.
I'm suggesting at some point....mid-summer (July probably) where the crap has hit the fan and a hundred days of a military operation has brought serious losses to the Russian image.
The seven-day war.....going to a hundred? That's not easily branded and sold to the Russian public.
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