Paperwork submission? By the end of June....it's done, and I would suggest a period of no more than 72 hours for NATO to approve their paperwork.
For the rest of 2022? I would suggest three things:
1. Before the end of 2022....some major exercise will be conducted with the US, and probably three members of NATO (Germany probably will be a player) on Sweden/Finland territory. It'll be more of a demo than a true exercise....that the US could bring in something like two fighter wings, and five-thousand troops in a five-day period. Use of Alaska-based folks who are trained and used to harsh environments? More than likely.
2. Some Russian naval 'show' will occur, If you figure numbers....it'll be fewer than eight. Some type of landing 'show' will be conducted on Kaliningrad, but it'll be fewer than 2,000 that land on the beach. For Russian naval commanders? It's a lot of pressure to hope your vessel doesn't have a engine failure, or some weird explosive event.
3. Some Russian espionage ring will be busted in Finland/Sweden, with forty-odd characters arrested (some are citizens, some are non-citizens). The amount of propaganda on regular Swedes and Finns will go up in a dramatic sense after this event....with people asking who is to be trusted.
If none of this Ukraine business was going on....then none of this drastic change in Sweden/Finland would occur.
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