The New Russia Strategy?

 Well....in the past couple of days....various military analysts have looked at the retreat of the Russian forces in the north, the re-consolidation efforts, and the likely new strategy.  

What's generally said is that based on massive losses in this Kiev 'front' and the idea of taking the city....there was too much lost in the effort, and they weren't hopeful of any pay-back at the end of a 'take-Kiev' battle.  

Somehow (without much commenting from Putin)....the Kiev war is ended.  

Events now?  Whatever was existing (manpower, equipment, supplies) upon the end of this retreat to the Russian border....is being re-focused in some way.  Units that were depleted on equipment and soldiers....are being reworked into new cohesive units.  

Yeah, there is an accounting taking place, and some commanders are probably forced to admit they lost some portion of their vehicles (tanks, tankers, APCs, trucks) and manpower (KIA, desertions, wounded, missing).  

So what is developing is this new idea....just get the control established over the two eastern districts of Ukraine, and say it was enough.  Then write a peace treaty text and get it signed.  

All of this might have been mildly acceptable by the leadership of Ukraine....up until the 'butchering' situation in the two Ukrainian cities NW of Kiev.  There's going to be some payback going on, and the effort to take these two eastern districts....probably four times the size of Long Island....will be a mess.

The disadvantages?  

1.  Resupply efforts?  Nowhere near Belarus, so it's entirely a Russian resupply situation to keep them going.

2.  You've expended a fair number of armor vehicles....what exactly is left, and will the Ukrainians continue the tank-missile and Stinger routine?

3.  The 60,000 reservists being brought onto the scene....are they really prepared for the warfare being conducted?

4.  If you've lost x-number of fuel tankers, and resorting to barrels on trucks as your fuel transfer strategy....is that a four-star strategy or crap?

5.  The conscripts who survived the Kiev situation....are they hyped-up for the new adventure?

6.  Same guys who fouled-up the resupply efforts in the northern effort....playing a key role on the eastern front?

I don't see this eastern front strategy doing much except writing a text for Putin to end the mess in 30 days.  In his mind....there now has to be some territory 'won' and a end to the military operation.  

If he loses half the 60,000 reservists in April/May (killed, wounded, missing, captured, deserted)?  He'd likely call upon more reservists for June/July.  

For the Kremlin elite, there's just not much to be optimistic about.