1. EU discussion on oil embargo for Russia? Moving forward, as reported by N-TV this morning. If you look over the whole of the EU....at the beginning of 2022....around one-quarter of the oil imports came from Russia. I personally have my doubts that the embargo talks will go far....unless you suddenly had an Iranian presence at the table....with them selling tons of oil.
2. I noticed via Tagesspiegel am Sonntag....a interview with a noted Bulgarian political scientist (Ivan Krastev). In blunt language.....he sees no change in leadership for Russia. There's no coup coming up this year or internal revolt.
I'd agree....unless food shortages showed up and there's just not that element in play.
3. This social media news story that doesn't go away? The story goes that Russian riot police...on more than one occasion....have refused orders to deploy into Ukraine as a 'unit'.
BS-factor? I'd give it a '8'. It has been picked up by various UK news outlets....I've yet to see it in the German new sector.
4. Odds of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania's Prime Minister Manuela Schwesig (SPD) resigning?
Well...this gets interesting. The state election in this German state was eight months ago, and Schwesig's effort carried the party to a 'win'. In recent weeks? It's been brought up over and over....how supportive she was with Russia over the past decade.
There are a number of SPD folks who fall into this category (the Ostpolitik crowd) and it's hard to predict where this goes. If she were to resign....the SPD remains in power and an internal party mechanism would resolve the leadership crisis for the state.
5. There's still more chatter going on for a speed limit 'change' (temp-deal) within Germany. Poll suggests around 57-percent of Germans now believe it's a good idea....at least for a period of time (no one says what this period should be). Around 33-percent of Germans say 'NO'.
The Green Party is pushing hard on this discussion...with the FDP generally opposing a change for the time being.
There's supposed to be a temp gas drop for June/July/August. My prediction is that a speed limit situation will occur for the autobahns....as the full tax comes back in September.....if the war continues.
The chatter right now? 130 kilometers per hour on the autobahns.....90 kilometers per hour on secondary roads, and 30 kilometers per hour in cities. If you drive within Mainz these days.....the full city is now a 30-zone.
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