Monday, March 14, 2016

Baden-Wurttemberg Coalition Woes

Once the smoke had cleared with the election on Sunday down in Baden-Wurttemberg, it's left some problems on the table for the Greens to mount a 50-percent control deal with partners building a coalition government.

You see....since the AfD Party got near 15-percent of the vote....there's a very short list of partnerships possible for the Greens who won the state election with 30.3-percent.

There are only two partnerships possible....which even journalists now really will become a harsh situation for the Greens to build this coalition.

Partnership A: Greens and the CDU.'s been hinted now that for the CDU to partner up....they want Kretchschmann (head of the Greens in B-W) out.  They want an alternate name from the Green Party in the state.  Kretschschmann has been around for roughly ten years and a major player in state politics.  He enjoys the news media attention and has no intention of retiring at this point (especially after a major win in the state).

Partnership B: Greens, SPD and FDP.  Rulke, the chief candidate for the party during this election....kinda said in a firm way on Sunday evening....that they had no interest in a partnership with the Greens.  The head authority of the FDP in the state said this morning that conversations with the Greens would occur, but nothing more than conversations.

An alternate deal?  None, unless the Greens sat down with the AfD.....which will not happen (so they say).

If the Greens can't negotiate with partnership A or B?  Well, the number two winner (after around four to six weeks of effort) would be offered a chance to build a coalition. If you count the votes....the CDU could partner up with the SPD and FDP, and have just enough votes to run the government.  The odds of this event?  It depends on how much effort that FDP wants to dump into this episode, or if Kretschschmann wants to retire and be replaced as head of the Green Party in B-W.

A screwed up deal?  Yeah.  No one could have forecasted how the AfD decent showing of 15-percent would have forced some extreme political chaos into coalition-government building.  Even if the Greens got knocked out of coalition-building....would the SPD come to agree with some deal with the CDU?  Maybe....maybe not.

Could all of this lead to another state election in 90 days? theory.....yes.  If no coalition can be built, that's the rules of the game.

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