We are approximately seven months away from the state election in Meckenburg-Vorpommern. So a few observations about this area and the 2011 election.
It's an area of former DDR....along the northeast coast, with Rostock as a central city. It is the least densely populated state of Germany. Total population: 1.6 million. Eighty percent of the region is not affiliated with any church.
In 2011, the SPD did well with 35-percent of the vote. The CDU captured 23-percent. The Linke Party got 18-percent. The Green Party, 8.4-percent. The NPD, 6-percent.
Presently, no one says much over the AfD, or how much the CDU/SPD parties have lost in the past year. My humble guess is that the AfD has at least 15-percent of the vote,and the SPD might be lucky this time around to get 25-percent of the state vote.
If the Sachsen episode repeats....then the Linke Party will likely lost six to eight of their previous total, and be lucky to cross the line with ten-percent.
Would NPD members cross the line and give their votes over to the AfD? Maybe. I think if that scenario came through.....you'd be viewing a 20-percent or better figure.