Monday, March 14, 2016

The Sachsen and Pfalz Coalitions?

On the topic of Sunday election results and the other two states in coalition's a tough route.

In the Pfalz, for the SPD to emerge as a government controller.....they need one of two groups to coalition-build around.

Pfalz group A: SPD, and the CDU.  So far, it doesn't look that well on this relationship.  The SPD may be required to give into a number of points that the CDU desires.

Pfalz group B: SPD, Green Party and FDP.  If the FDP says a flat "no"....then it's a harsh reality for the SPD while winning....with the AfD in a comfortable but marginal 12.6-percent....there's no way out for a coalition then.

For the CDU?  Even if the SPD stepped to the side....there's not enough seats with the Greens and FDP, for a CDU coalition.  Partnering with the AfD?  It'll never happen.

Potential for another state-election in four months?  Some people this morning suggest the scenario is not that weird, and it might happen.

As for the Sachsen situation?

The CDU is the clear winner....but they have only two partnerships possible:

A. CDU-Linke Party.  It's never been done before and it's hard to imagine how the two would overcome their political differences.

B. CDU-Green Party-SPD.  The SPD might play hardball and say 'no'.

A Linke Party-SPD-Green coalition as game-plan two?  No, there's not enough seats for this coalition to work.  So in effect, the AfD effect is fairly dramatic.  Either the CDU works out some weird deal with the Linke Party, or a fairly weak government with the CDU-Greens-SPD ends up as a solution.

In some ways, this election created a series of stumbling blocks on coalition building and a very weak way ahead (for five years).

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