Monday, March 14, 2016

How Screwed Up is It Really?

There's an interesting Focus article today (in German of course), which draws your attention and makes you sit and ponder.

Imagine sitting in some shoe store, and your youthful clerk who handles all the accounting and data....tells you on Monday that you have 1,500 pairs of shoes in the store, and without any deliveries or Wednesday he tells you that you have 1,290 pairs of shoes in the store.  Naturally, you'd ask questions because without deliveries or can't lose shoes.

So in this case....the Federal Office For Migration and Refugees (BAMF)....the wiz-kids who are supposed to bean-count and track all refugees, asylum seekers, and immigrants in Germany has noted that 1.1 million peopled came into Germany in 2015.

A few weeks ago....the Linke Party in the Bundestag came to ask some questions and demanded some public information.  I personally.....have this odd feeling that someone within the BAMF told a friend of theirs connected to the Linke Party about some unusual data, and the big guys of the Linke Party thought it might be nice to open up this info for public consumption.

So BAMF came up and noted that for 2015....there were only 600,000 arrivals who now are counted.

Naturally, you'd did they come to the 1.1 million number and how do they now come to the 600,000 number?'s a state of confusion.  Focus tries to put it into the right prospective.  Of the 1.25 million people who were living at the end of 2015 as refugees.....about half of them (627k) were already there in 2014 (by the end of that year).  BAMF simply throws them onto 2015 numbers.  A guy working for a grocery store operation or Mercedes part depot.....wouldn't do it that way....but BAMF does.

BAMF also hints on that some simply crossed the border into Germany, registered, then disappeared.  In fact, a lot of kids are on that list for some odd reason, if you read through various newspapers of Germany since December.

The other problem is that some refugees, asylum seekers, and immigrants.....have packed up and left.....going back home.  How many?  No one is sure because they aren't deregistering.

Somewhere in this numbers process.....there are roughly 300,000 who crossed over and registered....but never went to the second step, which means they signed paperwork for asylum.

Now, a smart guy would look at this.  A whole bunch of political turmoil.  Tons of money being spent left and right by cities, villages, counties, and states in Germany (free money, as we Americans would say....coming from the federal government of Berlin)....which is paying for something.  But if this ten to fifteen-odd billion....was about 600,000 refugees and not 1.1 million (for 2015).....what does this say about accuracy and transparency for this 'crisis'?  Or is it even a 'crisis'?

You have to imagine Chancellor Merkel sitting there in some meeting, and trying hard to get the BAMF guy to swear to a number.  And he just won't do that.  So she'll eventually sure of this database can he be?  He'll probably just grin and say that it's just numbers, and that will be the moment that Merkel collapses her head down onto the table and someone calls for a one-hour pause in the meeting.

Could AfD's entire emerging about fraudulent numbers and fake refugee databases?  Well....yeah.  What's this say about democracy?  Could you watch an entire government go through fake turmoil and AfD to arrive to save the country.....from a fake refugee crisis?  Could two or three accounting solutions and a simple visa change fix this whole crisis in a matter of 90 days?  Could you avoid paying Turkey six billion Euro for a fake crisis?

It's silly to suggest this.  But it seems like some mature adults need to stand up and just say enough....there can't be 1,500 pairs of shoes in a store on one day and 1,250 pairs of shoes on another day....without sales or delivery of new shoes.....unless of course, the inventory guy is crazy.

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