Tuesday, March 22, 2016

Hessen Numbers Examined

The statistical guys did a fair amount of analysis over the Hessen city voting (three weeks ago), and came to some surprising conclusion.  This was prior to the three state elections of two weeks ago.

If you compare 2011 voting to 2016 voting.....there was this swing of people going to the AfD (the anti-immigration party).  Naturally, you'd assume it was mostly disenchanted CDU voters.  Well....no.

The data shows that barely eight-percent of the 2011 CDU voters flipped over to the AfD.  Most disenchanted CDU voters went to the FDP instead (16.4 percent).  In some ways, it's a positive because the typical FDP position is not that far off from the CDU position, and to be honest....on the immigration issue....there's barely much difference between the two.

But, here's the shocker.....on the SPD....21.8 percent of 2011 voters flipped over in 2016, and voted AfD.  That's a fair jump.

Should this trend worry the national SPD folks?  I'm guessing they are sitting in some conference room and debating the trend.  They'd like to believe that it's really all disenchanted CDU voters going this direction.  If they were in a national election and lost 21.8 percent to the AfD, some would just hand in their cards and retire.

Not that this really changes any positions on the Merkel vision for immigration, but it probably will put significant pressure on results coming out of this EU-Turkey deal, and hopes that the migration numbers decrease.

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