Sunday, March 6, 2016

Vote in Seven Days

Three German state elections occur next Sunday (seven days away).  Based on polling, general observations, and just a 'wild-guess'....I will predict the following:

Rhineland Pfalz:  The CDU pulls out some marginal win (31-percent), with the SPD close at 30-percent.  The FDP will make a borderline five-percent vote, and the Linke Party will fail to cross the five-percent point.....meaning that the Linke will not be in the state assembly for the next five years.  The Greens will barely get 7-percent.  The AfD will get cross the line with 10-percent.  The rest will be marginal parties of no significance.  The CDU is stuck....the only coalition possibility is the SPD.

Baden-Wurttemberg: The CDU will get a dismal 27-percent.  The Greens will pull out a decent win with 33-percent.  The SPD will be amazed at the low count of 10-percent.  The shocker will be the AfD coming up with 12-percent.....ahead of the SPD.  Neither the Linke Party or FDP will be able to cross the 5-percent point, so they are out of the assembly.  This all equals a fairly weird coalition deal where the Greens must accept the CDU as a partner (no other choice).

Saxony-Anhalt: The Linke Party will put on a good show and be happy with a 22-percent vote.  The CDU will be the winner with 29-percent.  The FDP and Green Party will both slide barely across the five-percent point.  The SPD will be happy enough with a 17-percent win.  The big success of the day for AfD will be in Saxony where they will get a 19-percent win.  The coalition?  How the CDU can partner with the Linke party? Impossible.  So, it'll be a CDU-SPD-FDP coalition.....perhaps even adding the Greens if the votes aren't enough.

A decent voting deal for the AfD.  A bad day for the SPD.  A lot of votes for marginalized and minor parties with no real effect.  And the news media stuck trying to explain the CDU pain and suffering because of immigration woes.  And then.....six months until folks get hyped up over the next state election period in Germany.

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