Monday, March 14, 2016

Fall Election in Berlin State

Sometime this fall....Berlin will hold it's state election.  Some observations over direction and the 2011 results.

Berlin has several significant political successes and failures.  The BER (the new airport) is a disaster topic for the SPD (they ran most of the control over this screw-up).  The current anarchist episode?  Centered in the eastern area of town and probably involves roughly 2,000 residents who are in continual turmoil with the cops....with the SPD defending the troublesome crowd.  The refugee crisis?  In full bloom, and both the CDU and SPD with a heavy burden.  The reuse of the two airports?  A major discussion which no one wants to handle.  Lack of affordable public housing......another heavy topic.

The 2011 election:

SPD, 28-percent
CDU, 23.4-percent
Greens, 17.6-percent
Linke Party, 11.6-percent
Pirates, 8,9-percent

If the Sachsen trend were to hold, then the Linke Party will be lucky to keep in the range of six or seven percent.

Both the CDU and SPD probably will lose five points the newly formed AfD.

The Greens only saw some success with Baden-Wurttemberg, so it's hard to say they will maintain this 17 point win with nothing to really show for the past five years.

So, my forecast will be:  (note, no science or actual polling data but a guess on trends and the use of the 2011 data).

SPD, 23-percent
CDU, 18-percent
Greens, 13-percent
Linke Party, 8-percent
Pirates, 8.9-percent
AfD, 17-percent
The rest will go to minor parties of no consequence.

If AfD did cross the line with more than 20-percent, it'd put some difficult problems up for a coalition building process for the SPD.

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