Thursday, March 17, 2016

Harsh Realities

Frank-Jurgen Weise of the German Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF)......had an interview yesterday....Focus picked up the piece.

Somewhere in the middle of this chat, he kinda admits that with the current number of immigrants....roughly 660,000 are entitled to stay.  Then he also admits....two-thirds probably have skills or education required for employment and might easily catch a job via their local jobs office.

Course, you would ask.....so of the 200,000 people left over....what happens?

Well....to fit into the integration gimmick, what Weise is suggesting is more integration (word-speak for job-training).  That means funding, and probably twelve to twenty-four months of some type of craftsman training.

Would the German government be stupid enough to train hundreds or thousands into a skill or craft that isn't highly usable?  Well.....yeah.

Weise also admits that at best.....only fifteen percent of this overall 660,000 group are well qualified.  So might the other eighty-five percent of the group require craftsman training as well?  Well....yeah.

The curious thing here is that German craftsman training operations or schools.....are built to handle a certain number of students.  They might be able to entice a former instructor who has retired to come back for a year or two, and maybe they could bulk up to handle some extra students....but half-a-million extra students?

At some point, I suspect that the Bundestag will agree to some type of ramp-up for commercialized schools and instructors.  They will hand the money (probably in the range of several billion Euro) over to the states, and the states will auction off a hundred students here and a hundred students there....to be trained in some last-minute assembled class.  Twelve to twenty-four months later....certify the student and dump them as finished.  Who hires them?  Unknown.  Depending on what part of the country you live in....you might find 5-percent unemployment or 15-percent unemployment.  Go figure how this would work.

With the way that things work in Germany.....there is social help up to a certain point.  They will give you enough money for a bare-essentials apartment, and enough money for food.  Beyond that....social welfare is fairly careful about their money.  If some immigrant fell into this 'pit', it would be helpful for a couple of months but after six months of this and continued unemployment....I think most would ask about their future in Germany.  A robust German economy, with job growth....is absolutely necessary for any of this immigration business to succeed.

Then you come to this final topic.....what happens in 2016?  More immigrants?  Another 1.1 million people arriving?

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