Covid-Rage Episode

 In my local region...over the weekend, in Nauheim....cops got called.  From what the public TV folks report....an incident occurred at a beverage shop.

What the authorities say....an encounter occurred with the beverage shop clerk and a customer (guy in his 30s). The clerk advised the customer on social distancing.  No one says what exactly the customer did wrong, but that simple advice on the distancing apparently set the customer off.

I've often commented about Covid-19 frustrations and how so many Germans have a bit of frustration built up.

The customer set into a fit of rage....hit the clerk, knocking him back, and set off toward the exit.  On the way out....with a knife out at this point....he stabbed some year-old customer at the door.  Serious wound but the customer survived.

Authorities didn't have much of a problem tracking him down to his residence....but that encounter with the police also led to more physical violence.

Charges?  At least three or four minimal....probably attempted-murder in the mix and violent assault on the policeman.  He might be looking at 15-plus years for this encounter and hostility over the social distance 'warning'.  

One can make the comment that a lot of people are building up their stress levels, and it doesn't take much to set them off.  

This Covid-Hotel-Holiday Discussion in Germany

 Hotels in Germany, since 2 November....have been shutdown.  Officially, tourism right now in the country is stalled-out and most Germans would remark that they don't expect anything to happen until mid-spring (say April-May timeframe).

Last week, both state and federal government folks met and finished off some details....basically saying a Christmas season would occur (like you need the government to sanction this)....but the federal folks hyped that the idea of opening hotels for a limited period (for relatives to travel and be in the local area of their parents or children) was out.  Several state said 'no'....the hotels would be open in their states.

Today, out of Berlin....Chancellor Merkel went back to harsh criticism of opening hotels, and doubling down.  

You see.....as much as the federal government perceives they are in charge, the sixteen states of Germany have proven they exist and have the power to counter Merkel and the federal apparatus.

It's a stupid topic to use as an example, but the hotel topic is proving Merkel to be limited in power.

How many folks would actually travel around the country, into hotel-friendly states?  Unknown.  No one....even from the travel industry, can state a number.  It might be 1,000 customers only.  It might be 10,000.  It might even go up to 250,000 German travelers.

If you were one of these people....could you even go out and eat at a restaurant?  No.  Restaurants and pubs are still on the closure list.  You could go and do a pick-up at some restaurant....bringing the food back to the hotel.  Or you could simply go to the home of relatives you are visiting....eating off their table (making the most sense).

The week after the holidays....if the virus infections hype-up?  Well....the Chancellor and crew will say it was the stupid fault of the state governments in allowing travel.  If the numbers don't hype-up....the state governments will knock the Chancellor and crew for the criticism.

The hotel response to all of this?  Most are in some economic spiral and are counting the weeks of survival left, before they have to permanently close.  The more successful places will survive....the smaller hotels which needed the summer and ski seasons to thrive....are problem hard-hit right now.  Opening for a lousy ten-day period doesn't really mean much.  You might be sitting there as a manager in Heidelberg with a 70-room hotel, and this Christmas open-season deal might only mean 20 of the rooms rented for a week.  

It's a crazy discussion to be on the plate and considered a top-ten topic for the week.

The 'Bad-Boy' Story

 A discussion has started up within the Interior Ministry (led by Seehofer, CSU) that centers on 'bad-boys', deportation, and Syria.  ARD (public TV, Channel One) tells the basic story to this.

The police will openly admit that some of the increased crime (mostly drugs, to a lesser degree assault)...leads back to migrants, asylum-seekers, and immigrants from the past six years.  Note here....the term 'some'.  

It's a highly divided issue, with various explanations built into the issue.  Crime generally increased after the Wall came down, and ease of access into Germany became a noted issue.  

So there's this group of immigrants that the Interior Ministry have put on the list....that ought to be deported.  Some are from African countries....some from the Middle East....some from Eastern Europe.  

The topic comes up today because the Interior Ministry is viewing the idea of qualifying Syria as 'safe'.  In simple terms, they suggest the civil war is over, and that folks on the 'bad-boy' list could then be forced back into Syria (if that was their home of record).

In two weeks, there will be this meeting where the safety factor is discussed.  

The Foreign Ministry in disagreement (led by Mass, SPD)?  Well, yeah....that's part of this big picture as well.  They don't view Syria as 'safe'.

How many folks are on this deportation list, who might be Syrian?  Unknown.  This odd lacking bit of information was obvious in the news report.  If we were only talking about six Syrian guys....it wouldn't be a big deal.  If this were 300?  It might be a sizeable topic to discuss.

The fact that it's almost all males on this list?  It's best not to bring this topic up.  It's hard to find any Syrian female who gets on such a list.  

What generally happens to get on the bad-boy list?  If you squeezed this topic enough....you'd find that most all of the folks (not just Syrian)....arrived in Germany and found this wonderful open society....that allowed drug distribution/sales to occur, and alcohol was freely marketed with no limitations.  So they tried various drugs and got into a habit.  Then they got into casual and increased alcohol situations.  They went into stupid situations....got doped up or drunk....sometimes assaulting people at random, and triggering chaos.  

The odds that Syria would even want these people back?  I would suggest this is one issue by itself and barely mentioned in Berlin.  If I were Assad of Syria....there's zero chance that I'd take the dopers back.

But here's the real issue at hand....2021 is an election year, and this stupid grouping of deportees is just standing there.  Keeping the 'problem-children' in Germany doesn't make sense unless you were going to house them in prisons. The general public looks at the crime reports in newspapers, and typically ask....is this a German, or a migrant who committed the crime?  Some news groups hide this fact, when telling a crime story....which just infuriates Germans even more.

It's a mess that needs resolution, but it's hard to see where this will come from, or how it'll work in the end.  

This Little 'Frankfurt' Story

 About three days after the American election ended....this story started up.  The basic story goes this way:

1.  The CIA ran some ultra-secret server farm in Frankfurt (you are never told where).

2.  Illegal server activity connected to the election occurred from this server farm.

3.  The Pentagon ordered Delta Force to go into the server-farm facility, recover the servers, and return them to US soil.

4.  Guards at the facility (we are never told whether these are German, American, French or whatever) put up a defense.  Numerous rounds are fired (maybe five...maybe a hundred....maybe 500).  Five Delta Force members are killed.  But the Delta team recover the drives....drive out to the airport, and return them to US soil.

BS meter:  On a scale of one to ten....it's a '11'.

Presently, I would guess that a quarter-million Americans believe the story, and are continually asking about the 'secret drives'....which are leading to some bogus election business.

Maybe in the 1970s....you could have seen an operation like this occur.  Today?  No....German cops would have gotten called....social media action would have started up...with 500 locals aware of the event within 30 minutes, and 25,000 locals chatting about it by the 3rd hour.

Firefight....CIA thugs fighting Delta Force?  It sounds like a good script for a 2-star German Sunday night public-TV cop movie.

It just amazes me how far this bogus story has gone.  Even around Frankfurt now....some folks are asking the question....was there a firefight that they missed?  Was there some 3,000 round 'battle' that occurred, with dead bodies all over the place?  

I'd like to step into the middle of this....to suggest two Russian mafia guys were just accidentally at the entrance of the server facility (smoking cigarettes' and consuming vodka), and were taken by Delta Force back to the US....thinking that the Russians were part of the facility guard deal.  

I'd also suggest that some top secret Australian undercover team (out of Hamburg) also participated in the action.  They were set as decoys in the Frankfurt area....acting drunk and getting police attention on them...rather than the firefight itself at the facility.  Those members were secretly awarded medals for heroic but fake drunkenness.  The eight Australians returned to Brisbane....deeply shamed by the fact that it was fake drunkenness....not real drunkenness. 

By next week, I expect the Frankfurt story to consume at least 15 false facts, and include two French tourists who observed the whole firefight.  

TV Tax Chaos on the Way

 About four months ago in Germany....things were all set for the TV/Media monthly 'tax-free' to go up by 86 Euro-cents (to a total of 18.36 Euro).  

There was a path for the fee to go through (the Bundestag, the public TV 'governors', and the sixteen German states).

Well....one state (Saxony-Anhalt) stood up in the past couple of days (via the CDU and AfD Party in majority) and said NO.  Twelve other states said it was all fine with them.

The day for the flip?  On paper, it still says 1 January 2021.

To be honest here, the public TV 'empire' actually wanted a bigger chunk of money per month (they were talking 19.24 Euro a month).  That request was turned down flat, and they were encouraged to find cuts.

The essential problem here?  The Basic Law/Constitution....says that there is to be state agreement (not a majority or super-majority, but absolute agreement....16 out of 16).

What seems to be driving this one state's feelings?  They generally hint that ten years ago....it was laid out that ARD/ZDF and the radio folks....needed to reorganize and develop a downsized operation.  For ten years....nothing has occurred.  A decade wasted in their mind....so why bother raising the monthly fee?

Is this the only problem....one state?  No, not exactly.  Twelve states have passed this.  Saxony-Anhalt basically says they will not cooperate.  This leaves three states who haven't met to vote on this topic yet.  The three?  Mecklenburg, Lower Saxony, and the Pfalz.  The odds that these three might side with Saxony-Anhalt?  Well....this would take a serious twist or two and put the ARD/ZDF/public radio folks in a pickle.

The reorganization idea?  There are probably over 300 ideas on the table.

German public opinion?  It goes in various directions.  From the 15-to-25 year old group....the vast majority will admit they watch less than an hour a month.  My son (nearing 30) would admit he hasn't watched an hour of German public TV in sixteen years.  I can probably find at least half-a-million Germans in the same category.

The necessity for two major news networks to exist between ARD and ZDF?  Just another issue.

The necessity to bid on major sports contracts, with public TV money?  Another issue.

I give plus points on the radio network, and the choice of music formats (HR3 is probably one of the best stations for background music that I've heard in fifty years).  I also give plus points to the radio folks for traffic jam info and weather reports.  

What may happen here?  You might find three or four of these states sitting on the vote and making a deal....show a reorganizational plan and downsize the news teams by 50-percent, to happen over six to eight years....then we'll give you the 86-cent raise on the fee.  The end result?  Somewhere down the line....the fee drops by one-third.

The public TV guys disgruntled over this game?  More or less.  But Amazon streaming, along with Sky-TV and Netflix....are killing the market-share with 15-to-30 year old Germans.  There are probably 100k German teenagers begging for their Christmas gift 'stash' to include a year's subscription to Disney online and Netflix.  

No to the Big Three

 A news group poll was done this past week....asking the question of accepting the new potential Chancellor at the end of 2021, with choices of:

1. Habeck, Green Party

2. Soder, CSU-CDU Party

3. Scholz, SPD Party

The curious outcome of this poll?  Roughly one out of three Germans said NO to all three.  They weren't excited or pumped-up.

A problem?  There's about ten months of time to go, with the possibility that Soder won't get to the party nomination (Merz might be the winner).  

The odds on Habeck and the Greens getting the majority of votes?  Based on trends of the past twenty years....the lead party (from the six) probably won't get more than 35-percent of the vote.  Right now, the Greens are trending toward 20 to 24 percent, and with the right amount of topics....they might surge at the final month to around 30 percent. 

This Covid-19 resolution, and economic recovery needs to be underway by the fall....for the Greens to reach a majority.  

Berlin Story

 ARD (German public TV, Channel One) lays out an interesting story over crime in Berlin, and the 'gangs' this morning.

A 'peace-talks' occurred in the past week in Berlin.  A mediator (retired boxing champ and German-Arab) was brought into a situation with two crime clans....one being Arab-related and other Chechen.  After a fair amount of discussion....the two clans settled differences and declared peace. 

The Chechen presence?  Twenty years ago....they were non-existent in Germany as part of the criminal enterprise.

At some point, the Arab gangs needed muscle to establish a presence....so they went to what I'd call 'service-providers'....the Chechen guys.  For seven years, the Chechen fell into a line of work that included guns, and serious threats on the competition.  

Somewhere along the way, the Chechen guys figured out the various methods of profiting, and established their own crime clan operation.

By the news report....the Chechens are now established in eastern and northern Germany.

A problem now?  Most gangs up until this point....had a limit on war-like operations.  The Chechens apparently don't have this limit.  So the German police, if you follow the news discussion here...now see this development as a major problem.  They marginally held their own with the Arab gangs of the past decade, but this situation is a whole new ball game.  

The Head of the Vaccine Line Issue

 It's a topic that you could have predicted.....a long discussion has started up in Germany over who gets to be first in line for the vaccine....once it's delivered.  N-TV did a great piece this morning, and explained the argument.

The first suggestion was that older folks and people with secondary issues (COPD, diabetes, etc) would be first in line.  Sanctioned by the Standing Vaccination Commission, the German Ethics Council and the National Science Academy.

The second suggestion is that medical people and care workers (meaning at hospitals and retirement homes).  This suggestion threw in essential workers.....police, firefighters and teachers.  With this suggestion....the number of people went beyond what was in the first delivery of the vaccine.

It probably ought to be pointed out here....no one is completely sure about it actually preventing Covid-19.  The suggestion is there, but it's like the flu vaccine chatter....you get superior protection but it's not absolute.  

Is this a long debate?  No....they got two weeks roughly to come to some conclusion, and I would suggest that medical staff personnel and care workers are the first in line, following by the elderly, and three weeks later....they get to the firefights, teachers, and police.  

This 15-hour a day operation at the vaccination centers?  Kinda surprising.  You would think that with a dozen folks per shift, and a couple of folks to just stamp your records or take your data....they could get three times the goal of 1,000 per day.  

So the final question....where do German politicians fit into the priority of things?  Are they essential or non-essential?

BER Chatter

 With BER (the new Berlin airport) open....the smoke has settled to some degree (roughly eight years late in opening), a new discussion has started up this week.....flipping it from city/state-owned, to a private enterprise.  RBB discussed this to some degree.  

Most all airports (certainly not all), are privately owned and run.  BER was originally planned in this fashion, and the bid-process screwed up that idea entirely.

The situation currently?  No one is expecting profitability for BER to occur in 2021, and if you read over most business journalists from the past year (in the Covid-era)....they are skeptical that even in 2022 will get BER to a profit point.

This discussion started up.....why not sell off shares of the airport, to stock-holders?

Current leadership of Berlin-City supporting this? NO.  They can see that the period ahead for the next year will be crappy, and without any profit.  But they also can see two years in the future....expecting a serious return to travel to occur, and this airport would deliver significant profit to the city.

The Billion Euro Program Idea

This week, the Chancellor's cabinet committee (federal side of the government) decided that a massive effort has to be conducted to oppose right-wing extremism and racism.  ARD, public TV, gave a brief description of the 'package'.

They've written up 89 projects, which will require one billion Euro over a four-year period.  

The general idea?  Each project will make the public more aware of racism, work toward prevention of right-wing situation, and half discrimination.  

How the billion will be spent...isn't really laid out.  One might view this general list of things, and just sense that a lot of this will be TV commercials, leaflets, student programs, and 'gifted-out' projects for major cities.

Is the current situation in Germany this demanding of such action?  If you were around in the 1980s and tried to make comparisons to today....it's not the same place.  Migration, immigration and asylum have taken place to a great extent over the past forty-odd years.  

Eleven-million folks in Germany....out of the 83-million in population....are non-Germans (Turks make up around 13-percent of that group).

Over 143k Indians currently reside in Germany.

It is, without any doubt...a multi-culty landscape, and one can imagine that a quarter of the non-immigrant population (Germans) just view this in a negative way.

The idea that the billion Euro programs will have an affect?  Well....to do nothing, would not be an option.  I might agree that half of this funding will just flush down some toilet as PR money (posters on some billboards throughout cities like Frankfurt or Hamburg).  

So this becomes a quest to just convince Germans that there is a right-wing/racism problem, and to correct it in some way.  The fact that some migrants are racist in ways against other migrants/immigrants?  It's best not to bring this topic.  

If the one-billion Euro programs fail?  You'd wake up in five years to say that at least you tried to correct public opinion.  

As for left-extremism?  That's for another day, and probably another billion Euro program to correct as well.

Covid-19 and Ski Resorts?

 German ski areas not to open?  There is this discussion going on....because of Covid-19.

ARD, public TV (Channel One) laid out the basic facts.  There are five fundamental issues/facts on the table:

1.  Chancellor Merkel wants all European ski areas closed (not just Germany) for this season.

2.  Austria says....in a blunt way....they will be open.

3.  Italy is sticking to some plan where no ski area will open until 10 January.  After that, there is some hint of them opening up.  Logic here?  Unknown.

4.  The Swiss?  They are pretty fired-up to open the resorts.

5.  Finally, the French.  They said all ski resorts can be open, but the lifts to take you up to a point to ski?  They will be shut-down.  So you'd be going up to some French ski resort hotel....paying a fair sum to just hang around to drink heavily and buy expensive stuff at local stores.....while not skiing. 

What'll happen now?  Anyone's guess.  If you crapped out the German ski season?  The resorts would be demanding the government cover the cost, which would go into a minimum of a billion Euro.  I'm guessing that the Finance Minister would go nuts over that idea.

If you allowed them all to open?  You'd probably get a huge surge for a month or two....of more Covid-19.  

Guests Discussion

 About once a week, I see some comical (but serious) discussion break out among journalists, virus experts, and politicians in Germany over some Covid-19 matter.  

So after this weeks Chancellor meeting with the sixteen state Premier-Presidents....this one topic lay on the table.....Christmas with relatives 'visiting'.

They didn't say anything against the matter, although this max of ten people in the house is one of the rules that they all agreed upon.  

But this one issue is being dragged out.  If you have relatives (say your brother/his wife) who live in Hamburg, and want to spend it with you in Heidelberg....but you don't have any room for them to stay in your house....the normal custom is to check into a hotel locally.  Hotels right now?  Shut down.  

The topic of discussion (at least here in Hessen)...starting around mid-December, allow the hotels to open and guests to flow in.

The Chancellor's team?  Absolutely against the idea.

People being told NOT to tourist-travel, as part of this open-hotel idea?  The authorities are pretty determined that this angle to hotels opening can't be used.  It's strictly visiting relatives.

Abuse coming?  No doubt.  Some guy will show up in Hamburg with his girlfriend, and be asked if he is visiting relatives.  'Absolutely' will be the answer, then seven days later....someone in the hotel reports that the guy and the girlfriend seem to be downtown a lot, on shopping tours.  Police then asking him to name the relatives in the area....will then be his downfall.  

Problems with this whole idea?  Restaurants, bars and pubs are shut-down.  Other than take-out, that's about the only way you can eat.  So either you eat with the relatives during that week-long stay, or you do fast food/pizza for the period.

Hotels?  They aren't saying much, and frankly....if you had 180-room hotel, and only 18 rooms taken up during this holiday period....it doesn't really make a lot of sense to open.  

All sixteen states heading toward one single answer?  No, and that's another obvious problem.  

Greta Opposing Black Friday?

 Well....yeah.

N-TV had a piece today....which centered on Greta Thunberg getting hyped up and negative about Black Friday shopping.

The Greta kids on trying to halt such shopping?  Normally, on every Friday, the Greta-kids in Germany run a strike-program and walk out of classes at noon.

So in some major cities....they showed up strike at shopping districts in Germany.

The chief quote from Greta: "Overconsumption is destroying current and future living conditions and the planet itself.  Don't buy stuff you don't need."

The problem with this action?  I would suggest three issues:

1.  Storefronts in Germany have suffered greatly in 2020, and some are on the marginal end of bankruptcy.  Having some know-nothing 14-year old kids striking and preventing business with a down-and-out store....is not that brilliant.

2.  Once you bring up this stupid topic of 'don't buy stuff you don't need'....why can't I suggest that most 14/15 year old kids don't need 120 Euro Nike shoes, or a 300-Euro cellphone, or some 35-Euro a month cellphone plan?  

If my kid brought up this topic.....I would move real quick to downsize their 'stuff' situation.

3.  Finally, a lot of Germans are at the limits of their patience with Covid-19.  It's been a miserable year....bars are shut down.....social life is non-existent.  The last thing you really want to hear is some 14-year kid trying to give you Greta-hype and then blocking your entry into a store.  This could easily flip into a violent situation with some German adults finally lecturing the kids in a way that they've never seen before.

More to come over the month of December?  More than likely.  

Final Report on the Hanau 'Attack (Feb 2020)

 The authorities finished the final report over this attack in Hanau from earlier in the year.  I essayed a piece or two about this.

Basically, the German guy (age 43) went out and killed nine locals (immigrants) in the Hanau area.  Then he killed his mother and himself.

What the authorities say in the end....this was fairly unbalanced (paranoid schizophrenic).  His condition also layered itself with the problem being racist as well.

In the end, with the guy dead....you are kinda wondering if for the past decade or two....all this mental issue stuff was publicly seen/noted, and if he should have been locked up in a facility if he was that much of a threat.   

German Bars and Clubs Closed on Silvester (New Years Eve)?

 Yes.

NO restaurants, pubs, bars, clubs, disco operations, or cafes open.

Probably the first time since December 1944, that you find this type of situation developing in Germany.

What'll likely happen?  

I would offer the humble suggestion that various grocery operations and beverage shops will go into overdrive the two or three days prior....with a tremendous amount of booze and beer being sold.  

So out of car trunks, people will gather on the streets....in public settings, to be chased off by the police.  But they will gather in parks and public settings....consuming booze and beer in public on the evening of the 31st, and most all attempts to ban-control the situation will fail.

The police might have orders to be tough on this, but I also suspect that they will just shake their head....it's a ban order that you can really pursue unless you had ten times the number of police on duty for the evening.

My advice?  If you are part of the crowd, I'd probably go out the week prior to Christmas and start building my party-on-the-street stock from local beverage shops.  

Your Limits of Patience?

 With the German government meeting concluded last night....the general expectations for merchants and stores for the Christmas season is marginal.  There are a set number of customers you can allow into a store.  If you are a smaller shop, there's no doubt that some control guy will be at the door and monitor who enters....meaning there's a line to be in the street, in the midst of 0 C to 5 C (probable December temperatures).

For a bigger electronic shop (like Saturn)?  I'd also expect some guy there at the door, and counting flow in and out.  

For a grocery operation in Christmas week?  I'd expect a guy controlling inflow of customers there as well.

So the question is....in the midst of December....with snowflakes falling and a minus-3 C situation....just how long are you willing to stand and wait for a chance to enter?  Are you a 20-minute guy?  A 40-minute guy?  Might you be even a 70-minute guy?

I thought about that last night while watching the federal and state folks do their big chat on how the ban rules would work in the Christmas season.

Some folks, in past Christmas seasons.....might have spent 20 man-hours over the December period....Christmas-shopping.  If you stopped the flow into stores, and suggested you had to go and spend three hours today on a 7-hour shopping experience....out in the bitter cold?  I probably wouldn't do it.

So I kinda expect three things to happen:

1.  A lot of people will log on, and buy via on-line services.  This means local shops don't make the normal anticipated profits.

2.  A lot of people will simply log on, and buy gift cards.

3.  A few more people than normal....will end up with serious pneumonia situations...because they lingered in the misty rain for 80 minutes....waiting to bargain-shop in a particular shop, while the temperature was bumping against 1 to 2 degrees C.  

Maybe it's a test of endurance or just a test of stupidity (you really wanted to see what pneumonia felt like).  It'll be a season that folks will remember for decades. 

'Black-Friday' in Germany

 I can safely say that up to the late 1990s....'Black-Friday' didn't exist in Germany.  Maybe around the American military community and within the BX-empire....it was marginally done.

In the past decade, it's taken root and grown to a great extent.  Around the 2016 period....you began to see signs in windows, discounted rates at electronic shops, and advertising leaflets geared toward the concept.

The past week?  It's gone turbo.

Just about every shop in Frankfurt, Mainz and Wiesbaden has some Black-Friday sales going on.

Thursday operations?  Since there is no Thanksgiving in Germany....it's mostly a day that the shops get prepared and geared to massive sales starting tomorrow morning.  

German Kids on Strike?

 I know it sounds amusing, but HR (our public TV network) laid out this 7-line story here in the AM today.  

Because of the ban-rules and standards set in Frankfurt....school kids (student council of the city) held a meeting and voted up a strike for Monday, at the city health department.

What's it all about?  Well, the kids believe that the situation has reached the level where alternating classes (half the kids on this day, and the other half on the next day) would attend.  They want the health department to sanction this.

Part of this logic is that buses and trains....at least in the minds of the kids.....are the big worry to the virus.  So if you had lesser kids going to school, it'd be a lesser threat.

How many participants to expect in this strike?  Unknown, and left out of the story.  I would take a wild guess here and just assume a minimum of 500 kids, and maybe even getting up to several thousand.  Would they practice social distancing at this strike?  Might be an interesting question.

I would offer this humble opinion.  Over the past ten months, I think most German teachers would readily agree that the whole situation has screwed up kids advancing academically.  This period from August to June of 2021?  It might be the most worthless school year since 1945.

I wish the kid strikers luck, and I'd bundle up for the Monday strike (local temperatures have been around five degrees C for day-time highs the past week in the region.  

Monday UPDATE:  Police say around 300 kids were in strike mode there in Frankfurt.  Temperature locally?  Near 1 to 2 C....so it was a bit chilly out there.

The December Routine: Merkel Meets With State Leaders

 So the meeting between Chancellor Merkel and the sixteen Premier Presidents concluded last night (between 9 and 10).  What can be said is that this went on for 8 to 9 hours (via a virtual meeting).  I can't imagine handling a virtual meeting, with 16 participants, but somehow....it did.

This is probably the last ban rule meeting for 2020.  There might be another as 2021 arrives....where more ban rules go into effect.

The chief changes or non-changes?  I'll reference them from ARD public TV news.

1.  This idea of bringing more school buses into the mix....to lessen contact?  It means a heck of a lot extra money.  The federal folks said 'no'....they'd likely not cover that cost.  How many extra buses were in the mix.....literally thousands, if the plan was implemented.

2.  Federal ban on fireworks for New Years Eve?  No...this was argued a good bit but failed to be agreed upon.  So each state makes it's own rules.  For Hessen (my state), it'll be a city by city decision.  

3.  Bars, pubs, restaurants, and recreational facilities will remain closed (unless you are picking up food/carrying out) until 20 December.  Some review will occur the week prior, and there is a slight chance they might allow an opening.  Don't go expecting much, unless the infection rate drops by 50 percent (just won't happen).

4. More limited customer situation in stores, with per-square-meter rule going into effect.  800 square meter store or less.....1 customer per 10 square meter of sales area.  Killing customer visits for Christmas?  It'll be a challenge.  Audits and fines being done?  Yeah, more than likely.

5.  Masks now required in parking lots in front of stores?  Yes.

6.  From the 23rd of December to the 1st of January, you can have 10 guests over at your house.  If an 11th guy wanders in?  Well, you'd be in violation and the cops could be called by a neighbor.  Don't go laughing....there will be people having 15 to 20 guests, and neighbors will eyeball each single person entering, and get great enjoyment out of reporting you for a violation.

7.  More seating limits will be put on railway operations.  In the end, it'll make rush-hour a very miserable experience.  

8.  Federal aid will flow in December (17 billion Euro for the month is figured up) for companies in dire financial situations. 

9.  Sport ban rules remain in effect, with no changes.

10. Most states (not all) will begin Christmas holidays on the 19th of December (meaning schools are out and limited government office hours).

11. The idea of shutting down the border for the Christmas period?  It didn't seem to go anywhere.  

So that's it....a fairly robust ban-rule package already existed, and this was just the icing-on-the-cake.  Miserability index?  Maxing near a ten, with Germans just shaking their heads over how bad 2020 has been.

The only real relief here is this vaccine business starting up in approximately three weeks.  Maybe by mid-summer, you might have the vast majority of Germans vaccinated. But as one virus 'guru' commented this past week....we're just an 'inch' away from the next new Covid-mess arriving on our doorstep, and repeating this exercise in five to ten years.  

My Local Vaccination Center?

 Today, the local Wiesbaden authorities announced the point for the city (293,000 residents)....for the Covid-19 vaccination.

It's to be the Rhein Main Congress Center (RMCC).

The RMCC is the mega events center built on the grounds of the old Congress Center....which lay between the train-station and the downtown shopping area.  Around five years ago, they tore down the old Center, and this new modern structure was put up.

The advantages of the Center?  You can drive into the underground parking area with ease (probably more than enough room for 1,000-plus cars).  The expo hall big enough for a couple of thousand.  Heated facility. 

So you can drive in.  Park your car.  Walk to the big hall.  Then sign in and wait in comfort (while it's possibly snowing outside).  Even if it's a 70-miute wait for your turn....it's all in comfort.  Doing social distancing?  You could easily pack 500 people into giant circles within the structure. 

Cost of this?  Well....it belongs to the city, so I doubt that they are paying anything.  

Anything odd about this?  Well...since they completed it (over two years ago)....it's marginally been used.  In a twelve month period, it's probably got no more than 30 days of use out of it.  Making any pay-back off the investment?  Probably just enough to pay the operations budget.

Their numbers plan?  1,500 per week (remember, it's the first shot, and two weeks later....a booster).  You can do the math, but with 293k....it'll take up most of the next ten months.  

The other two vaccination possibilities?  They don't require the special coolers, but they won't be delivered for another two months minimum.  Some folks think that by March....these options will exist with local doctors or pharmacy units.  If this were true....virtually all vaccinations would be wrapped up by May.  

The Doom Quote

 The Wednesday meeting with the Chancellor and the sixteen state Premier-Presidents has started up.  

Key comments here at the beginning?  Well...one of the more quotes that you sit and ponder upon.

The Bavarian Premier-President (Soder, CSU)....stood up and said: "We mustn't lose any time. The death rate is currently as high as if a plane would crash every day (in Germany)".

Deaths reported for past 24 hours (up to 6 PM last night) over Covid-19?  377.

Back in 2018, for the entire year....954,874 Germans died (from all things).  Roughly 50.5 percent were women, while 49.5 percent were men. Don't ask why the slight difference is.  The population of Germany is around 83-million....so it's slightly more than one-percent a year.

Did Soder just throw a fair amount of dramatics or 'doom' into the middle of this?  

For 2018, 3,275 Germans died in car accidents.  445 Germans died in bicycle accidents for 2018, just for reference.  Somewhere around 9k Germans died in 2018 from suicide.

The news crowd know that Soder is one of the top two candidates for the CDU Chancellor 'game' in 2021....so virtually anything he says...is amplified.  If bars or pubs were open....thousands of Germans would sit there and openly criticize Soder for being overly dramatic.  Luckily for him...they are all shut-down due to Covid concerns.  

In some way, Soder has a point, that across Germany....a 'planeload' of passengers die daily from Covid-19.  But in terms of 2018....a small planeload of Germans died daily from suicide. 

Perhaps it's just a public thing, and politicians are kinda like soccer or football coaches....they need the 'team' to be hyped-up and onboard with the strategy.  In some ways, it's part of the game.  But it's the fact that we've been 'coached' so much in 2020....that our acceptance of coaching has hit some maximum peak at this point.  

Knowing our luck....by 10 PM tonight....a second politician will counter Soder's comment....saying that for an entire week, it's like a super-cruise-boat sinking with everyone lost.   

The Germans, Biden, and the Scorecard

When the smoke clears on 14 December, then the relationship between Germany and future-President Biden begins.  I use 14 December because it's the Electoral College day, and once the 270 number has been achieved....then it's 100-percent settled. 

So with the jovial nature of the Germans presently....how exactly does the scorecard work for the next four years?

1.  The rejoining of the US into WHO?  For some reason, this seems to be a top ten issue in the changeover and the arrival of Biden.  If you bring this up with most working-class Germans....they aren't really hyped up or care about the discussion.  Most can't cite much about the WHO, except they know it's about science or medical stuff.  

2.  The NATO frustration and the 2-percent problem.  Well....all of these transfers or movements of US troops (out of Germany) will halt.  Everyone will talk about a new found relationship with the US in NATO, but lack any evidence beyond just saying that.  

The 2-percent spending plan required?  I suspect a meeting of NATO will occur by early summer, and this topic comes up.  Basically....everyone is in serious debt issues and financial chaos with Covid-19.  So I imagine that a change will occur, with 2-percent tossed out, and a 1.2-percent inserted.  

3.  The US-Russia Missile treaty problem.  Basically....unless Putin sees a reason to sit down and go over a deal...it won't happen.  There's nothing for the US to offer, unless it said that it'd vacate Europe and remove troops from Germany.  Odds of this?  Probably a 10-percent chance.  So the missile issue will just remain.

4.  The US trade tariffs.  They end immediately and everyone will super-positive...until several companies come to President Biden and say that unfair situations are going on.  Biden will bring up the crapped-out TTIP deal and the Germans will just say it's a fine thing to work on.....smiling as they know for four years....it'll go nowhere.

5.  Middle-East relations.  The Saudi and Israel view of things have changed over the past four years.  Both view Turkey and Iran as problems.  Unless Biden has some 'magic-stick', there's likely to be no change on this issue.  But the Germans can say anything happening....is better than nothing happening.

A logical guy saying 'anything' and 'nothing' is basically the same thing?  Don't ask, it's not worth the discussion. 

6.  Global Warming.  Basically, in a matter of minutes after taking the oath of office, the exit out of the Paris Treaty will be undone, and the Germans will rejoice over this.  A month later, some German journalist will point out that come 2024....if Biden or his Democratic successor fails to get votes....another Trump-like guy will arrive and the Paris Treaty will dumped again.  

Folks will laugh over the hint, but find that it's mostly correct in the end.

7.  Joint relations between Germany and the Biden-administration.  This will progress for around eight months....then the fall election occurs in Germany.  The odds of a Green Party Chancellor being around, with the Linke Party and SPD Party as 'partners'?  More or less a fair possibility.  Different stances will take place, and the relationship will go to a different level (don't get the idea that it'll be that positive between the US and Germany in this type of scenario).

8.  The Nord natural gas pipeline deal?  The Germans will ask for a meeting and want the whole Trump directive dumped, with no strings attached.  The US will ask for a major conference....at one of those upscale locations in Germany, and linger for two weeks talking about everything except the natural gas pipeline.  The Germans will finally say 'enough'....just halt the Trump standing point, and that goes away.  

Discussion about this change via nightly public news?  It'll be some five-star story with ten different experts trying to describe a 5-line story over a 30 minute period.  The odd thing is that no Russian analyst will be involved in the chatter.  

9.  Things now being 'in order'?  This will be emphasized over and over by intellectual Germans....using public forums on TV....that things are now non-chaotic, and flow like a mountain stream.

Along about six to eight months into this 'era'....some Germans will begin to notice that seven to ten days will pass on public TV with one single mention of President Biden or the US government.  The previous four years with two or three mentions nightly?  Gone.  

Some older German will eventually appear and state the obvious....things are now of a non-consequential standing with the US.  It's not negative or positive....it's just that there's really nothing much to get hyped-up about.  

Biden then referred to as a 'no-thrills' President?  Yeah, and that's be the theme until President Harris arrives on the scene.

10.  Finally, Covid.  It shouldn't really matter about what each country does with Covid, or the individual vaccine mandates, or the treatment approach by each country.  But somewhere in the first month or two, I expect the US and Germany to have Covid-experts to meet jointly, and announce a joint path ahead.

Germans will stand there and ask....if it was already screwed up trying to have cities and states in Germany....agree with the Chancellor, why the hell would you go and create some fake agenda like this and pronounce some joint Covid 'package'.  The politicians from Germany will just grin and say it makes for good PR....beyond that....it's all fake. 

In the end, it's neither positive or negative on this new dynamic.  It's just a new tone, and journalists telling you that they feel better....so you should too.  

Solar Chatter

 About a 30 minute drive NE of Berlin, you will come to the town of Werneuchen (maybe 8,000 residents total).  This week, it became known for something....being the largest solar 'farm' in Germany (200 hectares, roughly 500 acres).

RBB did a decent report on the town and this achievement...worth reading.

Total number of solar panels?  Well...465,000.  Yeah....enough to power a town of roughly 50,000 homes.

Turning the on-button?  It'll happen at the very end of 2020, and start collecting power.

No environmental fuss over the project?  Apparently....not.  Most of the wind-generator projects are all being scrutinized and challenged in court....the solar projects, less so.

Court Case Involving the US Military

 I'll reference this back to SWR (public TV for the Pfalz region), and it's a fairly long story, but I'll keep it simple.

Going back four years ago (Obama era), some German hyped up that the Americans controlled the drones used in various Middle Eastern missions....out of a base in the Pfalz area, and these were used for 'attacks'.

So the court action started up. A discussion occurred where the question had to be asked....can Germany allow drone-control out of the Pfalz region or Germany itself?  Shouldn't international law prevent such an action?  Could Germany shut down such an action?

The Federal Administrative Court (Leipzig) has the case now. 

The previous court action?  They basically said that Germany had to control or halt the attacks (on the Jeminites).   The German Defense Ministry?  Well, they appealed the court action and pushed it to the next level.

The chief problem at this point?  No one at this point has made a single bit of effort to say 'control' of the drone business resides in the Pfalz US-base.  It is a bit odd....to get this far into a court action, and nothing of substance has been laid on the table.  The action so far says that Germany can and will control the Middle Eastern attacks.  

The case can go one of two ways.

1.  Some judge may ask who the pilot is, and where he might be sitting.  The response?  It could be some guy sitting in a hotel at Miami Beach, or a chateau in Scotland.  Once satellites came into play, you don't need to be in a war-zone or even on solid land itself (meaning you could be on a boat in the Med and fly the stupid drone).  The case dissolves away at this point.

2.  Some judge may view the whole thing and say that any 'control' or any 'process' on German soil that leads to any military action....has to be dissolved.  At that point, all US operations would be open to interpretation, and likely end the US basing in Germany (even for NATO support).  

You can stand and admire the legal build of this case, and how technology really has developed long past the current law structure of Germany (going past military topics and getting into social media conflicts).  

How long might this linger at the Leipzig court?  Maybe a year....maybe two years.   

UPDATE: 26 Nov, the Court looked over everything then said....the folks bringing up the violation and the court case....have to respect that the US agreed to abide by international law while on German soil.  Thus, the case ended at the conclusion of Wednesday's effort.  

End?  Well....at least until the next court challenge on some other new aspect.  

A 'Hamster' Story

 Back in the Covid-19 'hamster' period (when certain German food and house items were in short supply....March to May period of 2020)....I found that in the normal three grocery stores that we'd frequent here in the Wiesbaden region, there simply was no toilet paper.  ZERO. 

After about ten such visits, I became a bit worried (hamster-like myself).  The public news people made a big deal about hamster-people.  They should not behave in such a manner.  They brought on toilet-paper company people....who assured the public.  They were working 24 hours a day, and rushing tons and tons of toilet paper to grocery stores.

So I went to my local US military commissary shop (in Wiesbaden), and they had a minor supply (they also had strict rules....2 x packets max).  So I bought from their one merchant's toilet paper.

The odd factor here....this was French toilet paper.  Normally, the commissary would only sell US-made stuff.  I didn't think much about this.

So in the past week, our stock got moved from the basement to the bathroom.  This French-made toilet package was finally opened up.

Then the German wife analyzed things.

Typically, she would buy two-ply or even three-ply toilet paper.  This stuff?  Well....it wasn't even 1-ply....it was half-ply.  

Then came this German lecture....half-ply wouldn't cut it.  It's a stupid lecture that goes on for about 15 minutes.  I ended the discussion by stating that French people don't eat massive plates of Schnitzel, and they don't require 2-ply paper.  That didn't really settle much of the argument.  

The first roll went pretty quick (probably gone in 24 hours).  Then came the roller (the interior cardboard)....which was 3 times the density of any German or American cardboard.  Whatever the weight was of the half-ply paper total....the inner cardboard roll met the same weight.

There are about seven more of these French rolls left now.  My gut feeling is that the wife will 'hide' them until guests arrive, and then put them into use then....hoping that the guests use up the half-ply rather quickly.  On top of that, I'm not supposed to be in charge of buying toilet paper now.  

It's a stupid discussion item, but if  you've been to a German grocery in the past month....the 'hamster' business has restarted, and toilet-paper is on the low end.  Naturally, they all have limit signs up....usually just one or two packages allowed now.  

Austrian Woes

 The topic came out of Austria today....some worry shaping up over ski resort closures....no German/French guests coming, and a ton of money simply missing from local efforts.

So the Austrians would like for the EU to make up for the losses.  How much?  The chatter is that 800-million Euro a week would typically be spent from the last of December to mid-March.  

The odds that the EU would 'gift' them for 6-odd-billion Euro? Zero.  If they gave money over to the Austrians, then the Italians, French, Dutch, and so on.....would have the same demand.

A severe pain for these resorts in the Alps?  No doubt.  Financial crisis discussions will start up in the spring and make for a top three type issue.   

Falling Out of Trees Story

 One of the more interesting topics from the German state of Hessen over the past hundred days....has nothing to do with Covid-19.  It's about the approved autobahn project in the northern part of the state....A49.  For several decades, it's been in court and fought pretty heavily by the environmentalists.  This summer, the court gave permission for the project (roughly 40 km) to wrap up.  In German chatter, it means no more court arguing...no more environmentalists confrontations....just start digging, and figure a five-year project to pave a autobahn (40 km in length).

Well...the 'kids' (the environmentalists) have gone to maximum 'turbo' in protest action.

Over the past three weeks.....they've gone from ground-level action....to attaching themselves into the trees....to prevent the log-cutters from doing any advance work.  Police involved?  Oh yeah.....probably a minimum of 150 police almost every single day....having to drag the 'kids' out of the trees.

A harsh weather pattern in the past ten days have settled in the area of the Dannenroden Forest.  With that....came 'kids' tumbling out of the trees.  You see....they attached themselves with rope, up about five to seven meters above the ground.  Somewhere in the mess...the ropes haven't held, and they hit ground (5 meters equals 16 feet).  So you can figure....a 16 to 20 foot fall.  

Injuries?  Well...some.  It's not terribly serious but it's bad enough that a ambulance gets a phone-call and a crew has to pick up some wounded 'kid' and tote them off to the hospital.  

The police?  They are a bit worried over the 'kids'.....preferring them to either attach themselves to the bottom of the tree.  The 'kids' haven't said much but you have to figure that the cold climate of the woods....misty rain....near 0 C, it just makes for a pretty miserable experience.

The cutter crew?  If you gaze at the map, I doubt if they get more than 60 meters forward each day, with the width of the autobahn as their base point.  To clear out of the Dannroder Forest?  I'd take a guess that a minimum of four months (maybe going to mid-summer) are required (if you figure half of each day is wasted on 'kid' removal). Staying there and having some 'kid' fall every three days, and face up to snow shortly?  It's not a pleasant experience.

Germany and Covid-19: 24 November 2020

 1.  There's a discussion going on by the government that if you came up 'positive' for Covid-19....instead of the mandated 14-day quarantine situation, you'd do ten days, then take the test again.

Where this is leading?  Well....the suggest is that a majority (who knows if they mean 50-percent of 75-percent) of people....have a general 7 to 10 day virus episode.  With the negative test at the end of ten days, they'd return to work.

Who pushes this?  The RKI folks...who are the final word for science for the German government.

2.  A private funeral occurred up in Bremen....with 400 folks showing up.  Naturally, it attracted police attention, and violated the ban-rules.  Cops had to break up the audience at the funeral.

3.  Some reports this morning from the NW state of NRW....indicate that ICU beds in the state are now 'maxed-out'.  What they meant by this....their planned usage hit it's peak, but they can route regular use ICU beds over to this newer high number.  

4.  Newly infected for the past 24 hours (as of last night)?  15,355.  Down a bit from last week.  Deaths from the previous 24 hour period?  169 (total of 14,258 from day one to yesterday).

5.  Within the state of Hessen, there is still continued talks about fireworks for Silvester (New Years Eve).  It appears they won't ban the sale of fireworks....meaning you can still buy them.  And it appears that private use might still be allowed (around your house or neighborhood).

What is being hinted....in the middle of Metropolitan areas....it might not be allowed.  

Messy handling of this discussion?  No doubt.  

6.  HR had an interesting short report on the idea of ventilators in school rooms versus just opening the windows.  Some PhD geeks did the testing and came to what you'd be surprised about.....you'd be better off opening the windows for 3 minutes every 30 minutes, than using a ventilator with a filter system.

Note, they added temperature deal as well in this test (7 to 11 C).

So they aren't really giving a thumbs up on ventilators operating in the classrooms.

7.  Via social media in Germany....some folks are starting to suggest that it's the roughest period since WW II's end.  

It's a debatable thought....but a lot of Germans simply weren't there in 1945/1946 or have a common understanding of just how bad that period was.  In terms of the harsh social environment or limits....they might have a point.  

Guys who are used to Tuesday night cards at the local bar, or socializing at some pub while watching soccer games....are having a rough time of it.  Older Germans who used to stop and gossip at three or four houses per week.....can't do that presently.  It is a challenge to survive in this type of limited situation.  

School Story

 German schools, for the most part, are noted for being 'safe'.  You generally don't have gangs, or violence (at least to the rate that you'd see in California or Chicago).

So, yesterday (Monday)....this event unfolded at a school in Ostringen area (about 10 minutes driving SE of Heidelberg).  SWR (public TV for the region) lays out the basic story.  I should note....Ostringen isn't a metropolitan area or noted as a crime-intense area.  Population of roughly 12k in the local area.  

Police got called out to the secondary school in the area....13-year kid stabbed and in bad condition (has to be air-lifted out).  Will survive apparently.

His attacker?  Another seventh-grader.

Cops asked questions, and the witnesses suggest that for months, these two have had a dispute brewing.

To bring peace or ensure 'safety' for the remainder of the day....the police ended up with 60 cops at the scene.  It is curious....school continued (act occurred around 10:30 AM), and majority of kids in the school remained.  If it'd been a US school....they would have cancelled school for the rest of the day.

What'll happen now?  More or less left out of the rest of the story.  There's probably going to be a policeman or two at the school for the remainder of the school year.  Some investigation will likely determine that something should have been done about the conflict back in August.  'Conflict resolution' will be crafted and taught to the school officials....to ensure this doesn't ever happen again.  

More Ban-Rules Handed Out

This afternoon, the Hessen state authority came out and laid out the agenda for remainder of the year (so this meeting with the Chancellor Merkel on Wednesday)....doesn't really matter now.  Don't ask....it's a matter of the state dictating things, rather than the federal folks.

So, the current mini-lockdown?  It goes to 20 December.  Will something happen on the 20th?  No one says much.  Maybe a total relaxation of ban rules from 20 to 27 December?  Ha....it's a five star rumor but there's no truth in that suggestion at all. 

Private meetings in the house?  The state says a max of five people from two houses?  Yep, from 1 December to 17 January.

The Christmas 'waiver'?  It's written this way....you can have ten people (not counting kids....don't ask why kids don't count).  BUT you have to go into self-quarantine for several days prior to Christmas, and several days after Christmas.

Sounds hokey?  Well....I tried to imagine some father explaining this to the two kids.....having to do self quarantine before visiting the aunt's family on the 26th of December, and then do another self quarantine after the visit.  On paper, maybe this makes sense, but it requires an awful lot of imagination.  

How These Vaccinations Will Work in Hessen

 HR (our public TV network) did a update this morning:

1.  First, the vaccinations presently (at least today) are considered to be 'free'.  No charge?  Well....that's the comment with the first batch coming out.  A year from now?  Things might be different.

2.  Second, Hessen residents will be 'actively invited' to appointments at their local town/region.  How they mean actively invited?  Unknown.  Maybe you will get a postcard to call in....maybe you are told that your 'number will come up in March.  This detail wasn't exactly laid out.

3.  There's going to be a priority system laid out by the PhD/science/political crowd.  Presently?  It doesn't exist. 

4.  The quota is 30k vaccinations in 30 centers per day....more or less.  The program will run from 7 AM to 10 PM, at each center.  

5.  The vaccination phase will include a info phase.  I'm guessing here, but as you sit there in some room with forty folks waiting for your turn....some video will be running in the background with 'Huns' giving you a 12-minute presentation.  

Shockers?  Well...suggesting that even at 9:30 PM, they'd still be giving a shot?  That is a bit of a surprise.  

I should note here, they are comforting you to some degree....saying that once vaccinated.....if you get Covid-19, it's a mild case.  So you aren't really avoiding the virus....just getting the lesser symptom Covid-19.  What this means for fragile health folks?  Unknown, and it's best not to bring up this topic.  It would seem if you had a weak immune system, this vaccination might not be the end-all-save-your-butt type situation.  

This all being free?  I think the German government has laid down a fair sum of tax-payer money, and this is a way of getting something for the investment.  Plus, you'd really prefer not to hand some insurance company a 60 Euro or 120 Euro bill for the two-shot vaccination.  

Talking Hobgoblins-Kobolds

Around a hundred years ago, H. L. Mencken (journalist and free-thinker) spoke these words:

"The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary."

Mencken absolutely loved politicians because they gave him daily stupid-material to write about.  In simple terms, he'd open up a front-page.....read a dozen lines, and he had all he needed to write an editorial about the ways of the world.  People generally respected his opinion.

'Hobgoblins' as used in this quote...was an American word creation, taken out of Germany.  It was a non-existing creature who came out of the spirit world, and designed originally (500 plus years ago) as a nice and helpful creature who often entered your life to help you but always triggered mischievous situations to occur.  Religious groups would eventually condemn the creature...adding more negative weight to the idea...saying it was more 'demon' than 'angel'.

'Hobgoblins' today?  The term always ends up as a negative point in chatter.

In today's world, if Mencken existed?  Having political action 24 hours a day....forum chatter on a nightly basis....politicians claiming to save you almost every single evening...laying out drama after drama on a night-by-night basis....Mencken could probably write a 300-page book weekly.  

A couple hundred years ago in Germany....locals cranked out Hobgoblins (Kobolds) on a monthly basis.  Germans needed fear and entertainment, so the Kobold concept was a great concept.

Germanic mythology tended to say that Kobolds were generally unseen (invisible) but could come out of form (humans, animals, fire, or even a candle). 

The neat thing about this Kobold creature...it could live quietly in your home or in clothing.  In those days, you'd make up a big story of a Kobold living off in a mine or pit, or well.  

Looking around today....even in Germany....folks probably view the Kobold creature in dozens of ways, and the political/journalistic crowd are there as your protectors from the bad Kobold.  

Maybe for keeping people in line, or just continually worrying about something....the Hobgoblin or Kobold is a great creation.  It's just at some point, you will wake up and figure out....he's a bit created or a bit imaginary, and then what do you do?

German Silvester Zeroed Out?

 Lot of chatter going on this morning in news circles, political gossip, and social media....over the topic of no celebrations allowed (possibly) for Silvester (German term for 31 December evening).

In a typical city, like Hamburg or Koln....folks would be going out, consuming beer/wine, firing off fireworks, and engaging with friends in public places.  Around midnight, a vast number of rockets would be fired off and celebrations going on to 2 to 4 AM.  The older generation would do the at-home TV business, and step outside to fire off fireworks at midnight, and be in bed by 1 AM.

So the gossip going on right now....by Wednesday night....the expectation is that either the 16 states, or the federal government itself....will issue the Covid-ban rule that celebrating will be out on the 31st, and fireworks cancelled.

Nothing happening, period?  Well...I don't exactly see the general public going along with this govenrnment proclamation.  Just me guessing, but in a city like Berlin....there's likely to be 400k-plus people in the streets, still drinking and carousing with people without the social distance business.  

Fireworks?  If the grocery stores aren't allowed to receive the goods ordered....there's zero fireworks in public hands.  That part might be cancelled out.

But across Germany, I would imagine 20-percent of the general public will still be in the public party-atmosphere, and the police will be busy detaining people for Covid ban-rules.  It won't be a pretty mess to contain. 

Germany and Covid-19: 23 Nov 2020

 1.  As of last night, there were 15,511 newly infected folks in Germany....putting the current quarantine number up to around 311k folks.  Deaths since day one?  14,089.

2.  South Tyrol, Italy in a couple of days is going to hold a mass testing in the region.  They figure a total of 310-odd thousand people will be tested.  Free of charge...an effort by the government to ID everyone who might be sick.

3.  N-TV had a piece this morning....talking over the number of German school kids who have the virus, and are barely showing any real symptoms.  They think it's a substantial number. 

4.  Lot of chatter going on presently (via social media in Germany) that the big Wednesday meeting between Merkel and the 16 state Premier-Presidents....will result in a fireworks ban for 31 December (typically the only day allowed for this).  Issues?  Well...the fireworks are mostly all in transit now....bought and paid for by the grocery stores.  So if this occurs....there's tons of money thrown down the  pit, and fireworks just sitting there.

5.  The German Health Minister (Spahn) is suggesting a new Covid-program for school kids.  Basically, once symptoms show in class 'X' (teacher and 25 kids)....there's a rapid test done and all 26 are sent home for five days.  All negative results on the 5th day?  They go back to school.  If you review this idea....a lot of micro-management has to take place, and a Corona-program director for each school probably has to manage each group.  

6.  From the CDU Chancellor candidate Merz....he is suggesting that empty hotels now be used in some fashion as schools.  How this would be worked, be paid for, or serve in any practice?  Unknown.  

Islamic Study?

 I noticed this short item from MDR public TV here in the AM today.

The German Teachers' Association came out and asked for an official German-wide study on Islamist 'tendencies' in schools.

They kinda hinted, in certain words....it had to be anonymous, with teachers explaining to the audit crowd....what's going on.  

The general view?  Teachers are suggesting that there is no clear leadership or guidance going on by the school management crowd, and things are getting out of control. 

The odds of any state government or the federal government picking this up?  Well....here's the thing...several state elections are up in 2021, and you might get them engaged to 'promise' a study or review.  Naturally, it'd take a year to complete and publish.

If it came out as 'bad' news?  My humble guess is that the political establishment would waste a good three years talking about how it got this way and 500-million Euro would be required to fix the problem (always a nice round number).  

E-Bike Story

 Just an odd story related to technology.

Young guy....from Bavaria, had an E-bike and was trying to get from Wolpertshausen to Schwalbisch Hall (13 km away)....in the evening hours.

Focus had the basic story.

At some point, between the two towns....the E-bike ran out of power, and the guy couldn't pedal anymore (you would think it's that big of a deal).

He gets off, has issues....and is found the next day...dead.  Frozen by the evening temperatures.

Attire?  Unknown, and that would beg for part of the story.

Alcohol part of this story?  Unknown.  At some point, he drops the bike and just starts walking, and that probably was his undoing.

I sat and thought about the distance......13 km....8 miles.  If the temperature was around 10 to 15 C, and dark?  Five to ten kilometers would not be a big deal for me.  Lowering this to minus-3 degrees and ten kilometers, with minimal clothing....it would be a pain.  Toss in three or four gluh wines or a couple of beers?  I wouldn't be doing that well.

The one issue no one brings up....these E-bike batteries aren't exactly tested with temperatures in mind.  I'd be guessing that a normal battery would give X-charge, and if you were at 0-degrees (winter setting)....you'd probably lose about half of your X-battery charge real quick.

Why Germany Doesn't Have Electronic Voting

 Lot of hype over the past two weeks over electronic voting in the US and surrounding one or two significant companies.....so I asked the question....why haven't the Germans gone to electronic voting?   It's an interesting question and answer....so a bit of history.

Around 2004....this Dutch company came around with a 'fool-proof' voting machine, and wanted to sell Germany on these.  Testing occurred, and folks were fired-up to buy these.

Then in 2005....the Chaos computer hack group appeared.  They wanted to test the system.  Without a lot of effort, they broke into it, and condemned the whole idea.  Court cases popped up, and for four years, this lingered until the German Constitutional Court drew a decision.

They basically said in 2009....the voting system was not fool-proof....so they forbid (in strong language) the purchase or use of these systems.  For eleven years, that standard has stood the test of time.

Did the Germans know something that the Americans have only recently figured out?  Probably so.  

Green Party Weekend Meeting

 The German Green Party held it's virtual party meeting this weekend.  So, some things came out of this discussion group and their path ahead.

First, the party 'boss' (Robert Habeck) did a hyped-up speech and folks were kinda thrilled.  He's the Chancellor candidate for the fall 2021 election for the party, and right now....he's pretty close in the polls to win (the CDU Party might argue about this).

Second, the Greens are pushing the topic of getting the voting age to 16 years old.  Public opinion over this?  Lot of divisions here.  Some Germans at 16....are in the apprentice field....making money.  The idea that they'd be smart enough or wise enough for the responsibility?  Some Germans would argue that two or three million Germans aren't wise enough even at age thirty...to vote.

One other curious issue....as long as you commit a crime in Germany and under the age of 19....you are treated as a juvenile.  So it's an odd thing....treated as a kid/juvenile as you assault someone, but respected as an adult when it comes time to vote.  Logically speaking....something is wrong about this thought.  

Both the SPD and Linke Parties kinda support the age 16 vote idea....so it might happen in the next two years.

Third, the Greens talked up the idea of having regular citizens involved 'more' in political decisions.  There would be random groups of people....making up local councils to discuss matters and pass 'advice' up the chain to the Bundestag.

The possibility that you'd get a lot of confused or ill-informed people giving you advice?  Well....it's best not to point this factor out.

Course, you might be shocked that you did this and suddenly two-thirds of the country actually want a limited asylum program in place, with a limit of 100k incoming folks a year.  That would be a sore point with the Green Party leadership and they'd probably dump the council advice forum real quick.

Another issue tied into this....how would people get randomly selected for this advice council?  What if you came to forty people in the Bavarian region who got notified they were selected, and they said 'hell no'....they didn't want the job of giving the political establishment advice.

All of this appealing for the fall 2021 election?  Wait and see.  

Just Something To Ponder

 There was chatter going on in the Pfalz area in the past day or two....over the way that the Corona vaccine episodes will occur, once delivery starts up.

So the authorities in the Pfalz (not really talked about in any other German state) note that they will have a 'robust' phone reservation system where you connect, and get a 'block' of time to show up in your regional vaccine center, without any problems or issues.

They aren't saying much over testing of this reservation system or how this was set up.

The idea that vaccinations will be going on for ten hours of the day....seven days a week?  It was laid out like that. 

In the mind of the authorities....no one is suggesting absolute and full compliance, but they kinda assume the vast majority of people will want the vaccination.  

The 1,000 reservations per center per day?  There will be one center for the Mainz area (population of 218,000).  If you do the math, figuring the initial shot and the booster later...you'd be talking about 436 days before you complete this.  Or you assume that five or six vaccination centers in the outlying areas around Mainz (say 25 km's away) would have plenty of openings along the 3rd month of existence.  

Set-ups like this in each state?  Well....a lot of details in Hessen are up on the board, and a number of items aren't readily discussed yet.  

This 'robust' reservation program?  Here's the thing....over the past thirty-odd years in Germany, a lot of technology promises have been made, and about half of them really came to be marginal status situations in the end (not failures but not successes either).

So it'll be curious how the phone reservation system works, and if you arrive at 11 AM to find yourself still waiting at 3 PM in some line....waiting.  

(I should also note that a second, third and fourth vaccine will be hitting the delivery stage by March.  The rumor around Hessen is that these will be vaccines that your local clinic or doctor could pick up, and maybe have thirty to forty folks on one single day of the week to get vaccinated-up....thus avoiding the centers)

The 'Best' Chancellor The Greens Ever Had?

 I noticed on German social media today....some German guy made the observation that Chancellor Merkel was the best Green Party Chancellor of all time.  Sarcastically spoken?  Well....they went beyond bit of humor.

So they listed the achievements:

1.  Nuke power was virtually eliminated.  You can go back to the 1980s and view Green Party goals, and dumping nuke power was one of their three big goals.  By the end of 2022....all German nuke plants will sit idle....compliments of Merkel's agenda.

2.  German military compulsory military service abolished.  This was one of the first ten big achievements of the Merkel era.  No one is forced off to military service now in Germany.  If you went to the Green Party goal list of the 1980s....it was not a top three goal, but it easily was in the top 25 group.

3.  Higher tax burdens.  I think most insider CDU Party members would readily admit (if they were around in 2000) that today's tax rates are ridiculous but went into an upward trend almost every single year.  Again, if you review Green Party goals in the 1980s....taxing the wealthy and redistributing the money....was another one of the top 25 goals.

4.  Asylum-friendly and immigrant-friendly status.  Merkel would admit....'multi-culty' probably was a stupid focus point, but no one has been able to halt this direction of the government.  Again, if you reviewed the goals of the Greens in the 1980s....this was a lesser goal.

5.  Gay marriage.  Germany actually went a separate route here....for a long period....'registered life partnerships' was the appropriate word to use.  This started up in the 1997 era (a couple of years prior to Merkel).  They avoided the term 'gay marriage' entirely but created a vehicle where partnerships made perfect sense.

'Gay marriage' itself?  It didn't come until 2017, again....something probably was a low priority by the 1980s Green Party but at least discussed in open forums as a long-term goal (now achieved).

6.   Finally, the anti-car agenda. In some ways, we need to give thanks to the VW folks for screwing up the diesel business, and opening the path for the electrical car industry.

The Greens would very happily admit in the 1980s....dumping gas/diesel cars was a big agenda item.  Merkel actually helped to set the new law into place....as of 2030....NO new gas/diesel cars can be sold in Germany.

Was Merkel a secret Green Party player?  No.  But a lot of these achievements read like a Green Party agenda list.  It's an odd accusation to make.  It's a laugh to suggest these now and wonder about things.  

Next Two German State Elections Approaching

 Baden-Wurttemberg and the Pflaz.  Mid-March 2021.

How the two appear presently?

First, the Pfalz....from the last election (five years prior)....the SPD Party took the lead with 36-percent of the vote.  The CDU came in second at 32-percent.

Presently, if you look at polling around the state (Sep/Oct)....the CDU (Merkel's party) is presently leading in most polls (around 30 to 38 percent).  The SPD?  Same polls put them 10 points behind the 2016 results....meaning 24 to 27 percent.

Third place?  This gets interesting because the Greens appear to be capable of taking 14 to 19 percent of the vote.  

AfD placement?  Polls say the best they can anticipate is 9 to 10 percent.  

How this might end up?  Christian Baldauf will become the Premier President (CDU Party), and they will end up partnering with the Green Party (my humble guess).  

Onto the Baden-Wurttemberg situation.

Polls are mostly split over Sep/Oct, with the CDU Prarty and the Green Party splitting mostly....both parties poll at 28 to 32 percent.  It'll end up as a pretty close race....with both drawing 30-plus percent.

Polls indicate the SPD marginally pull 10 to 13 percent.  

Polls also indicate that the AfD folks might be able to pull 10 to 12 percent.

If the Greens win....Kretschmann will pull another five years as Premier President and likely team with the CDU Party.  A CDU win?  Eisenmann as Premier President, with the Greens likely as the partner.  I don't see either the SPD as strong enough to be a partner of either group.

Either election meaning much for the national election in the fall?  Not really....unless you end up with some radical upsurge with the Green Party in both elections (getting anything higher than 35-percent would qualify as such). My humble guess in that scenario...it'd only come to hurt the SPD Party numbers.

Much of a theatrical drama?  No.  However, if the CDU won both elections....it might lead to a belief that they'd pull off the national election in the fall.   

So settle back for February 2021 to be a hyped-up month over politics in these two states. Also, Covid and economics might be the top two discussion topics for the election.  Figure that agriculture, jobs, and the environment will be on the secondary list of topics. 

1,120 Folks Story

 It's a page three type story, which makes you sit and ponder over things.

Around a year ago in Germany....the Minister of the Interior (Seehofer) wrote up a new regulation over deportees.  

Once you were identified from the asylum application list as a 'failure'....you were directed and in some cases....forced to exit Germany.  Well, Seehofer went one step further....that if you tried to re-enter Germany....you'd go on a special list.  It didn't mean much of anything...other than the police seeing a comment on your file....that you'd been forced to exit, and you were 'unwelcome' in Germany.

It came up this weekend.....the German federal police admit that 1,120 folks are on this list....having re-appeared in Germany after the forced exit.  

So the story is laid out and the question asked is fairly amusing....all this effort by Seehofer to 'get tough', but you basically have a fairly large group of people who are not exactly welcome, and no basic way to handle this.  

The police?  No one says much, but they are probably laughing about the management of the program.  They do the ID game with some guy on the street....look at the file, and see he was directed to exit Germany a year ago, and actually left.  So here is the guy....re-entered Germany.

What it basically says?  No respect for the law or authority.  The border?  It basically exists in some imaginary way.  

The government likely dragged in 2021 (an election year) to invent another forced exit (2nd time) for some folks?  Double-dentation chatter?  More or less.  The general public will have a laugh over the game.  

The other side of this story?  Is the total list really just 1,120 folks....or are there another 10,000 who simply haven't been stopped for an ID check, and they are also asylum folks who left, and quietly re-entered as well?  I wouldn't laugh over the suggestion....the odds are that it might be true. 

Germany and Covid-19: 22 Nov 2020

 1.  N-TV reported the new infection rate, as of last night, for the past 24 hours....18,452 Germans.  It is a decrease of about 5,000 over the previous 24 hours....a slightly positive thing.

2.  Next big meeting of Chancellor Merkel and the state Premier-Presidents?  Next Wednesday.  Expectations?  No one says much.  The cancellation of the 2 November ban rules....to occur on 1 December?  Pretty much zero chance at this point.

3.  The worst area (statistically speaking) right now in Germany for infection?  The region just south of Dresden in the far east of Germany....the Eastern Ore Mountain range.  

Demonstrations Story

 In a normal year, there's probably around forty-odd demonstrations in my local town of Wiesbaden.  Most have to do with strike-action (various groups), pro-asylum, or the Greta-kids.  

So yesterday (Saturday) was this unique day...with three demonstrations in one single day.  A lot of this coverage is reported by Wiesbaden Aktuell. 

Demonstration #1: the Dannenröder woods group, from the Greenpeace folks.  This is the group that is trying to halt the A49 autobahn project (miles and miles north of Wiesbaden).  

This amounted to roughly a hundred people.

Demonstration #2: 'Lateral Thinking 611' folks came out....maybe around 100, to hype up their opposition to the Corona-19 ban rules and German regulation.  

This group was mostly all peaceful, except they didn't perform the required mask and social distance business....so the cops got all into their business about that.

Demonstration #3: 'Omas against the Right' came out....maybe around 20, and demonstrated against right-wing people.  This was a presence over at the train station area.  

I would imagine the police were on continual duty for the whole day....going from one demonstration to another, and ensuring the peace.

Three in one day being unique?  Well....yeah, one might suggest that.  But that's one of the unusual aspects of protests these days....there are probably a dozen topics which get people riled-up and pumped-up for a state or national protest action.  

I would lean toward suggesting that there's more pumped-up German feelings now, than at any point of the past couple of decades.  Curiously, the public TV news folks carry a lot of the protest action....with commercial TV news carrying the bare minimum.  Just an odd aspect....perhaps. 

Birthday Mess

 So, this happen in the past week in Bavaria. 

Birthday party, family deal, ten folks, all from the same family, no juveniles.  One might assume that the grown-up 'kids' brought their spouses.  All on some patio. Bavarian Corona rules say max of 2 families, five people total.

Cops get called. No one says who...probably a neighbor. 

Cops arrived and break up the party. Fine? 400 Euro each.

Lot of anger? Journalists don't say much. 

I would imagine they will figure out the 'friend' or neighbor. In the end, it'll be a negative experience to come.

Guarded Vaccine

The Covid-19 vaccine is scheduled for release around the last week or so of December.  

The one odd factor which came up in regional news (the Pfalz).....these holding facilities with the vaccine....will have police guards/military protection.

No one is saying 'armed' guards....but there will be around-the-clock guard-protection provided over the vaccine.

It's an odd thing, and I can think of any situation that I've ever seen with the medical establishment (both in the US or throughout Europe)....where this type of security was required.

Reason?  Unknown.

Maybe the mafia, or Russian KGB set to steal a shipment?  It sounds ridiculous but that's about the only scenario that one can imagine. 

Even to suggest guards....it has to be read by one of the Lebanese crime syndicates in Germany....as a opportunity for something.

Crazy world we live in.  

Poverty Story

 I often bring up the nature of poverty in Germany, and the upward trend.  I noticed this morning, via my regional HR public TV network, another report on this.

Just in the state of Hessen itself.....another report was completed for the 2020 period....noting that regional numbers had gone from 15.8 percent of residents being in the poverty-class....to 16.1 percent at the end of 2020.

Presently, Hessen ranks seventh in the nation in terms of poverty (out of sixteen states).

How do you classify 'poor' in Germany?  Well....it's a simple formula....you take the median monthly income (1,074 Euro for a single person or 2,256 for a family of four), and if you take home 60-percent of that or less....you are deemed in poverty.  

Resolving this issue?  You'd have to do something about wages, Hartz IV (the welfare program), and affordable housing.  The odds of anything happening in 2021?  Pretty much zero.  So the trend-line ought to 'hold'.  

More Stringent Ban Rules on Public Transportation

 Over the past couple of days....Transporation Ministers from the sixteen German states have been discussing the idea of more stringent ban rules (bringing the 1.5 meter social distance into reality on buses and trains).  Basically, it's impossible.

I'll use my local village as an example.  From 6:30 AM to 8:30 AM....around eight buses will pass through....heading off to Wiesbaden to drop off workers, and school-kids.  

These are 80-passenger buses...capable of handling 100 passengers (if some are standing).  I would suggest that at least half the buses will reach the level of some folks standing, and it's awful crowded.

Introducing the social distance rule?  How?

You'd have to add at least five more buses in this time slot and they simply don't have the buses or drivers.

You'd have to have some idiot standing there.....a seating-guard....to enforce the 1.5 meter distance rule.

On trains?  How?  Most of the early morning trains (7 AM to 8 AM) out of Wiesbaden for Frankfurt?  Crammed full, with folks standing already.  

This discussion is mostly to the ridiculous stage.....with people chatting on something that they themselves never use.  I don't think any of these idiots ride a daily bus to work, or hop on a train for a 30-minute trip to Frankfurt.  

But this is how far we've wandered into this whole ban rule discussion.  

Land Speculation Story

 If you had been standing around Brandenburg, Germany (on the far eastern side of Germany) back in 2007....interested in buy farm land....the price would have been 'X'. 

Today?  The same land, with land and farm speculation going on...would be '4X'....meaning the property quadrupled in price in a matter of 13 years.  Just a small farm area valued at 200k Euro in 2007....would today be worth 800k Euro.

People that study speculation...would marvel at this number and a classic capitalism/speculation discussion would start up.  What people would point out....unless you insert a law or unusual event into this....the same property would triple in price by 2030.....meaning that original property in 2007 being 200k Euro....by 2030, would be 2.4-million Euro.  

So this has triggered political discussion, with the state agricultural minister deeply involved in the idea of building a control situation.  What the government points out....once this trend starts....livestock production stops.  Vegetable production goes into massive overdrive in this type of situation.

There are basically three groups in this argument.  The small-time farmers have an association which believes some type of protective mechanism needs to exist.  The big-time farmers have an association, who believe that the government needs to stay out of this discussion.  And then you have the government itself.....worried over a trend that probably isn't good for the region....but neither is a control mechanism.

The odds of some law preventing escalation?  Unknown.  Even if you make such a law, it'll be challenged in court.

It's a very good story from RBB (Berlin-Brandenburg public TV) and worth a read.

Massive farming operations likely to the winner at the end?  When you go and look at the entire market scheme, the banking issues, modern technology....all of this leads back to large farms making a fair amount of profit, and being able to afford high-priced land.  The little guy can't. 

Just a Weird Story

 A couple of years ago, I essayed a piece about a cannibal sex crime episode in Germany.  The basic story.....someone had a fetish of being the victim of a cannibal situation, and via the internet....met some German guy who had the opposite fetish...being the cannibal.  

Before the internet came along, the odds of two willing folks of this type ever meeting up....was zero.

In this odd case, the victim guy went to the final phase, and cannibal guy achieved his final phase.  German cops were simply investigating a missing person episode, and just accidentally opened up the freezer, and....well...the whole story unfolded.  

In that episode, the cannibal German ended up in court, and easily convicted (he had filmed the episode, so it wasn't that hard to convict him).  At the end of this....one piece of the story came out after the court case.  A policeman had asked a question of the cannibal guy....just how many German cannibals were out there, and the response....from the convicted cannibal....hundreds.

I bring all of this up, because this week....another cannibal sex case unfolded....this time in Berlin.  RBB laid out the basic story.

This was an event that unfolded in NE Berlin, where this guy had been missing for two months.  Folks walking around a more remote wooded region....found the bones around two weeks ago. 

Bones had come from a dead guy (mid-40s), and evidence led back to this German guy.....early 40s, and police say cannibal action (involving sex) was part of the whole story.

One curious aspect of this episode?  The cannibal guy is a teacher in Berlin.

Case?  You can figure a mental review will occur and no court action for at least a year.  But this will likely go to the same end as the previous episode....the internet gave both people some ability to meet.  And someone probably will ask this guy how many other cannibals exist in Germany, and it'll probably be 'hundreds'.