Next Two German State Elections Approaching

 Baden-Wurttemberg and the Pflaz.  Mid-March 2021.

How the two appear presently?

First, the Pfalz....from the last election (five years prior)....the SPD Party took the lead with 36-percent of the vote.  The CDU came in second at 32-percent.

Presently, if you look at polling around the state (Sep/Oct)....the CDU (Merkel's party) is presently leading in most polls (around 30 to 38 percent).  The SPD?  Same polls put them 10 points behind the 2016 results....meaning 24 to 27 percent.

Third place?  This gets interesting because the Greens appear to be capable of taking 14 to 19 percent of the vote.  

AfD placement?  Polls say the best they can anticipate is 9 to 10 percent.  

How this might end up?  Christian Baldauf will become the Premier President (CDU Party), and they will end up partnering with the Green Party (my humble guess).  

Onto the Baden-Wurttemberg situation.

Polls are mostly split over Sep/Oct, with the CDU Prarty and the Green Party splitting mostly....both parties poll at 28 to 32 percent.  It'll end up as a pretty close race....with both drawing 30-plus percent.

Polls indicate the SPD marginally pull 10 to 13 percent.  

Polls also indicate that the AfD folks might be able to pull 10 to 12 percent.

If the Greens win....Kretschmann will pull another five years as Premier President and likely team with the CDU Party.  A CDU win?  Eisenmann as Premier President, with the Greens likely as the partner.  I don't see either the SPD as strong enough to be a partner of either group.

Either election meaning much for the national election in the fall?  Not really....unless you end up with some radical upsurge with the Green Party in both elections (getting anything higher than 35-percent would qualify as such). My humble guess in that scenario...it'd only come to hurt the SPD Party numbers.

Much of a theatrical drama?  No.  However, if the CDU won both elections....it might lead to a belief that they'd pull off the national election in the fall.   

So settle back for February 2021 to be a hyped-up month over politics in these two states. Also, Covid and economics might be the top two discussion topics for the election.  Figure that agriculture, jobs, and the environment will be on the secondary list of topics.