So with the jovial nature of the Germans presently....how exactly does the scorecard work for the next four years?
1. The rejoining of the US into WHO? For some reason, this seems to be a top ten issue in the changeover and the arrival of Biden. If you bring this up with most working-class Germans....they aren't really hyped up or care about the discussion. Most can't cite much about the WHO, except they know it's about science or medical stuff.
2. The NATO frustration and the 2-percent problem. Well....all of these transfers or movements of US troops (out of Germany) will halt. Everyone will talk about a new found relationship with the US in NATO, but lack any evidence beyond just saying that.
The 2-percent spending plan required? I suspect a meeting of NATO will occur by early summer, and this topic comes up. Basically....everyone is in serious debt issues and financial chaos with Covid-19. So I imagine that a change will occur, with 2-percent tossed out, and a 1.2-percent inserted.
3. The US-Russia Missile treaty problem. Basically....unless Putin sees a reason to sit down and go over a deal...it won't happen. There's nothing for the US to offer, unless it said that it'd vacate Europe and remove troops from Germany. Odds of this? Probably a 10-percent chance. So the missile issue will just remain.
4. The US trade tariffs. They end immediately and everyone will super-positive...until several companies come to President Biden and say that unfair situations are going on. Biden will bring up the crapped-out TTIP deal and the Germans will just say it's a fine thing to work on.....smiling as they know for four years....it'll go nowhere.
5. Middle-East relations. The Saudi and Israel view of things have changed over the past four years. Both view Turkey and Iran as problems. Unless Biden has some 'magic-stick', there's likely to be no change on this issue. But the Germans can say anything happening....is better than nothing happening.
A logical guy saying 'anything' and 'nothing' is basically the same thing? Don't ask, it's not worth the discussion.
6. Global Warming. Basically, in a matter of minutes after taking the oath of office, the exit out of the Paris Treaty will be undone, and the Germans will rejoice over this. A month later, some German journalist will point out that come 2024....if Biden or his Democratic successor fails to get votes....another Trump-like guy will arrive and the Paris Treaty will dumped again.
Folks will laugh over the hint, but find that it's mostly correct in the end.
7. Joint relations between Germany and the Biden-administration. This will progress for around eight months....then the fall election occurs in Germany. The odds of a Green Party Chancellor being around, with the Linke Party and SPD Party as 'partners'? More or less a fair possibility. Different stances will take place, and the relationship will go to a different level (don't get the idea that it'll be that positive between the US and Germany in this type of scenario).
8. The Nord natural gas pipeline deal? The Germans will ask for a meeting and want the whole Trump directive dumped, with no strings attached. The US will ask for a major conference....at one of those upscale locations in Germany, and linger for two weeks talking about everything except the natural gas pipeline. The Germans will finally say 'enough'....just halt the Trump standing point, and that goes away.
Discussion about this change via nightly public news? It'll be some five-star story with ten different experts trying to describe a 5-line story over a 30 minute period. The odd thing is that no Russian analyst will be involved in the chatter.
9. Things now being 'in order'? This will be emphasized over and over by intellectual Germans....using public forums on TV....that things are now non-chaotic, and flow like a mountain stream.
Along about six to eight months into this 'era'....some Germans will begin to notice that seven to ten days will pass on public TV with one single mention of President Biden or the US government. The previous four years with two or three mentions nightly? Gone.
Some older German will eventually appear and state the obvious....things are now of a non-consequential standing with the US. It's not negative or positive....it's just that there's really nothing much to get hyped-up about.
Biden then referred to as a 'no-thrills' President? Yeah, and that's be the theme until President Harris arrives on the scene.
10. Finally, Covid. It shouldn't really matter about what each country does with Covid, or the individual vaccine mandates, or the treatment approach by each country. But somewhere in the first month or two, I expect the US and Germany to have Covid-experts to meet jointly, and announce a joint path ahead.
Germans will stand there and ask....if it was already screwed up trying to have cities and states in Germany....agree with the Chancellor, why the hell would you go and create some fake agenda like this and pronounce some joint Covid 'package'. The politicians from Germany will just grin and say it makes for good PR....beyond that....it's all fake.
In the end, it's neither positive or negative on this new dynamic. It's just a new tone, and journalists telling you that they feel better....so you should too.
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