With the German government meeting concluded last night....the general expectations for merchants and stores for the Christmas season is marginal. There are a set number of customers you can allow into a store. If you are a smaller shop, there's no doubt that some control guy will be at the door and monitor who enters....meaning there's a line to be in the street, in the midst of 0 C to 5 C (probable December temperatures).
For a bigger electronic shop (like Saturn)? I'd also expect some guy there at the door, and counting flow in and out.
For a grocery operation in Christmas week? I'd expect a guy controlling inflow of customers there as well.
So the question is....in the midst of December....with snowflakes falling and a minus-3 C situation....just how long are you willing to stand and wait for a chance to enter? Are you a 20-minute guy? A 40-minute guy? Might you be even a 70-minute guy?
I thought about that last night while watching the federal and state folks do their big chat on how the ban rules would work in the Christmas season.
Some folks, in past Christmas seasons.....might have spent 20 man-hours over the December period....Christmas-shopping. If you stopped the flow into stores, and suggested you had to go and spend three hours today on a 7-hour shopping experience....out in the bitter cold? I probably wouldn't do it.
So I kinda expect three things to happen:
1. A lot of people will log on, and buy via on-line services. This means local shops don't make the normal anticipated profits.
2. A lot of people will simply log on, and buy gift cards.
3. A few more people than normal....will end up with serious pneumonia situations...because they lingered in the misty rain for 80 minutes....waiting to bargain-shop in a particular shop, while the temperature was bumping against 1 to 2 degrees C.
Maybe it's a test of endurance or just a test of stupidity (you really wanted to see what pneumonia felt like). It'll be a season that folks will remember for decades.
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