The War: 1 May 2022

 1.  By N-TV this AM....Ukraine says they've terminated 23,000 Russian soldiers.  If you tossed on wounded, captured....it's probably up around 50,000.  BS-factor?  Well....via video shown on YouTube....it's just a lot of war-dead, and I'd say the case is supported to 10,000-plus pretty easily.

2.  The UK says a number of trolls are being used to hustle in propaganda to Britain, in support of Russia. 

3.  German Foreign Minister has said no sanctions will be taken down until all Russian troops have left Ukraine, period.  

The Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) Terminal 'Law'

 So N-TV talked about this today.  Bundestag folks are having a meeting.  What they want....some designed law where three LNG ports could be build in a matter of a year or so....bypassing normal regulations.

These ports?  Stade, Wilhelmshaven and Brunsbüttel (all within a drive of Hamburg).

The deal?  Basically to take the federal folks in the Environmental and Justice Ministries....into one single huddle and not allow anyone to make a mess over laws.

Odds of this passing and not being challenged in court?  Oh.....it's a 99-percent chance some environmental group will sue to the national court.  But I'm guessing they will demand the judges take the topic quickly on, and just stamp their action final.

This resolving the Russian natural gas business?  Well.....they seem to have Qater, the US and possibly one other region tied to some agreement.  Ships being around?  No one says much....but I would imagine various contracts signed and production underway.  

Russian Chatter

 German N-TV had a 'talk' today.....with Russian dancer Mikhail Baryshnikov, Russian writer Boris Akunin and Russian economist Sergei Guriev.

Topic?  Well.....they've set up something called "True Russia ".  In their mind, Russia is ended as a 'empire'.

What is True Russia?  I'd call it a future path for Russians fed up with the Putin system, and they want a long term change to occur in Russia.

Any of this mattering?  Well.....before the internet era, I'd say just talking or communicating about this would be impossible.  Today, unless the internet is cut off.....you might be able share radical thoughts and get half the population in twenty years go dump the empire idea. Maybe they'd even reach a process where you could break it up in five or six states.  

Yeah, About That Covid Vaccination Mandate Business For Medical Folks in Germany

 N-24/Welt brought this up....an article piece written by Beatrice Achterberg today.....the mandate came up and is in effect (since mid-March).  What folks will say (in the medical profession)....most clinics and hospitals are just looking the other way and not asking any questions. 

How many are non-vax within the medical professions?  Unknown.  It is rather odd....such a key thing, and the news media basically turned their back to the event and just doesn't ask any questions.

What Achterberg suggests in her piece?  Well....to quietly take the mandate 'down'.  Can the SPD-Green-FDP government do that?  Presently.....no.  The SPD guys spent a lot of effort on this and can't dismiss it.

My humble belief is by October....we will have a upsurge in Covid, and this mandate will come up once again....shocking people that 25,000-odd German folks in the medical profession....aren't vaxed-up.  Then some ARD news guy will ask the question....'why', and everyone will fumble around to say they did their duty in mandating this.  

Rather Odd

 Some news folks at WELT/N-24....went looking for documents pertaining to Schleswig-Holstein, the Nord Stream II pipe from Russia to Germany, and environmental impact studies by local authorities.

Odd thing....the environmental documents aren't there.

State authorities in a panic?  I'd say they are asking around....maybe some fellow took them home to read over.  But there's no check-out or explanation here....making folks think....well....some dishonest deed might have occurred.

Getting the Green Party fussy?  Well....yeah, they are asking some big questions.

Who looks the worse at this point?  Mostly all SPD Party folks from the state.

What it looks like?  Some Nord Stream II Russian exec probably paid someone to do a mild environmental study and not slow them down (take three years for the study), and that person woke up in the past three months to realize they might be in serious trouble.  Course, you don't know who this is, or if it goes to a dozen individuals who just wanted a easy path to start the project.  

Kinda funny, and probably will trigger a truth commission.  Computer back-up of any material?  So far....no, and that just makes you more skeptical that it wasn't put up on a free internet access port.  

But don't worry....Germany will get to the bottom of this.  

The Boris Becker Situation?

 It's a complicated thing with some folks wanting to tell a 700-page story over.  I'll try to lay it out in 20 lines.

Boris Becker had a great successful run as a tennis player, and made a ton of money.

Boris Becker had a successful marriage....got around to cheating....crapped out on that marriage, then got some hotel maid pregnant (having to pay for that kid)....married wife number two....with her waking up a dozen years later that his economic issues were multiplying, then divorcing him.

Between the extra kid, two wives, and just really poor judgement over money.....he spent most of his fortune.  Somewhere in this.....he owned a great home on Mallorca, where he poured in tons of money (continual renovation with no end-point), and maintained some home in London.  

So loans came up and he failed on these....pushing back the credit people, and eventually....the court said you need to come talk to us.

Yesterday, the drama finally ended.  Court said on legal basis....you corrupted the system, and need to do 2.5 years in a Brit jail/prison.  People differ on what money he has left.....I suspect he has some fund safely locked up to pay him enough to survive the remainder of his life at a marginal level.  This lifestyle thing?  It finally caught up with him, and his lack of money knowledge screwed him over in the end.  

I'll just say this.....at age 54....he's mostly a juvenile-acting adult, and maybe the 2.5 years in prison will change him a bit.  

State Election This Sunday

 State election this weekend in Schleswig-Holstein (NW German state).  Anticipated polling?

CDU ought to win with 38-percent of votes....SPD in second place expected with around 19-percent.  Greens looking around 16-percent with FDP near 11-percent.

The fact that Daniel Gunther (CDU state premier candidate) has around 61-percent support in polling for his job?  That says a lot about choices and it's fairly limited for 2nd place.  

Corona Guilt?

 There's an interesting piece in Welt today, by Clare Ott.

So Ms Ott had this date with a guy (new guy by the way the story is told).  

Things apparently went ok on this date....she didn't describe the guy in a negative way or suggest he was a poor choice (something of a positive for guys on first dates these days).

Then....a day or two passes, and she felt a 'tad' ill....got tested, and yeah....she had Covid.  She calls the guy up....no symptoms, but a day or two later....yeah, he was sick (infected as well).

So she wrote the piece up for Welt, and had to say something about 'Corona guilt'. 

A year ago?  Oh, this would be chaos emergency 'level-nine' problems and probably not something you wanted to tell in some newspaper opinion piece.  There would have been no second date, and you probably would have given it a year of a 'pause'.  Today?  You just tell the story, and things proceed on.

My wife (German in nature) still has a sharp bit of negativity to utter over how she got the virus 14 months ago....at the office.  It may take her another five years to get over that frustration.

Things have changed apparently.  

Is Russia In Some Weird Way.....Collapsing?

 Economically, there's some modest problems going on, with regular inflation (probably higher than 10-percent), and a number of Kremlin characters who aren't really in tune with commerce or reality.

But lets be honest, this is simply the beginning.  Once you get to the mid-summer point, and Russians view the landscape....most will agree that the economy is in some freefall, with Putin only able to print more Rubles. This stage of printing could carry the nation for two years easily, but inflation merely doubles up in this state of fakeness.

The ending?  I'm one of the belief that he's got some health issues and probably on the last two years of his life, with a belief that he can do something legendary to carry his legacy forward....getting monuments made for himself.

Then some idiot from the inner circle gets the call, and thinks he can rectify the economy.  Two years of that....will just bring us to the full circle, back to the day that Putin passed on, and people grumbling.

In my scenario....a full decade will pass and somewhere around 2032....there's some agenda presented by people around St Petersburg to just let them go separate and like Nordic empire (like Finland).  Eventually, they will be given some kind of status, to be on their own, and shock people by success.  

The War: 29 Apr 2022

 1.  Last night, via ZDF's public forum show (live), the vice-Chancellor (Habeck, Greens) did a chat on Putin.  His quote?  

"Putin is no longer acting in a realistic and rational way. Putin has nuclear weapons. The danger of the war escalating is abstract.  So that it doesn't become concrete, every decision has to be made very carefully."

2.  Russia put up a list of six-hundred-odd Canadians who are forbidden from entry into Russia.

3.  NATO Secretary General says the war could go on for years.

4.  Russia's former President Dmitry Medvedev spoke up and tried to compare the current German Bundestag to Nazi Germany....mostly over the support to provide heavy weapons to Ukraine.  That 'slam' didn't go well for Germans to be understanding.  

Maybe You Need Enlightenment

 Because of economic events (Wall Street) and the collapse of the German government....the Germans had to run a out-of-cycle election in September of 1930.  Naturally, it had consequences.

The Nazis had a gain 15-points over the previous election, and were able to get 18-percent of the vote in this federal election. 

Roughly two years passed, and a 2nd out-of-cycle election had to occur (July 1932), where the Nazis were able to get 37-percent of the vote (note, it's high and number one, but not overwhelming).

Another out-of-cycle election had to occur in November of 1932, and this time....the Nazis lost roughly 4-percent off the summer vote.  In simple terms....the thrills were evaporating with Hitler and the party.

It was decided shortly after this....to create the Reich Ministry for Public Enlightenment and Propaganda (Reichsministerium für Volksaufklärung und Propaganda).  The short term?   RMVP.  Most people came to call it the Propganda bureau after this....but officially on the books, until the end of the war.....it was 'public enlightenment'. 

You can laugh about the title, but it was pretty serious business.

The spectrum?  Well....movies, art, literature, newspapers, plays, musicals, just plain regular music, and radio fell into the responsibility.  If TV had existed....it also would have fallen into this.

It was fully in place and functioning by the end of 1933.  

The November 1933 out-of-cycle election?  Well....it was one party listed on the ballot....thanks to enlightenment.

When people talk about propaganda or misinformation or content moderation....they aren't really talking about Facebook or Twitter.  At some point, you have to start talking about musical lyrics, books sold, movie scripts, and newspapers.  

Few people realize it but as the war continued in the 1940s....the content in newspapers became a problem.  At some point, it reached a level where a sixteen page normal newspaper had shrunk down to four pages, and in the las month or two of the war.....if papers were printed.....they were no more than one single page.  

Once a government creates a propaganda bureau or an enlightenment division....it's kinda like herding cows, and things will proceed down a certain path.

The Full 'Conquest' 'Pickle'?

 I read some piece today, where the 'expert' wanted to now suggest only two Putin scenarios left to play out (my humble thoughts are a dozen scenarios).

So this chatter from the expert went this way:

1. Scenario one: Use the present 'team' and try to take the far eastern region....then turn....hype some peace ending with about 25-percent of the Ukraine ceded over to Russia.  The view was by this guy....Ukraine might accept this ending.

2.  Scenario two: Oddly enough....go full mobilization and attempt to take all of Ukraine, period.

I sat there for several minutes....trying to contemplate what 'full mobilization' meant.  Maybe if you brought what remained in the far eastern region of Siberia, with every single Conscript possible (even those with two weeks of boot-camp), and brought back those from the past five years who were let out of conscription....maybe there's enough to build a serious front like one would imagine.

The tank/APC situation?  I'm likely believe most of the operational stuff has been already wasted, and this full mobilization might be a question on equipment.

Here's the thing, if you went to this drastic of a scenario.....what would really be left of the Russian military at that point?  There has to be dozens of generals standing there in Moscow and asking what their purpose will be at the end of this.....with a serious loss of manpower and equipment?  

There might be just enough equipment and manpower left to have the big Moscow military parade deal.....but that's the full extent of a parade-corps. 

All of this reminds me of the Hitler reality in 1944....after D-Day, when there were not enough men or tanks to stage any defense from the east or west.  Various generals just stood there and were readily convinced (perhaps as early as December 1943) that this war was finished.  

But once you enter this ending....maybe with Russia having full control of Ukraine....then what?  You've destroyed the infrastructure to such a degree....that it will not be able to be of value.....adding to Russia's plight.....no GDP to construct the military, and an economy so wrecked.....that it will resemble Albania or North Korea.

Putin's chief problem?  I think he just wants scenario one to work, hoping the Ukrainians would be stupid enough to accept that, and slide out of this mess....giving up half the country.  For some reason, I don't think scenario one is realistic, and scenario two is a end-situation for Russia.  

Q-and-A: 28 Apr 2022

 1.  Whats with all the hype against former Chancellor Schroeder?

Once he was defeated out of office....he immediately took a job with Russia's GAZPROM, and made a fair amount of income.  A lot of current SPD members are embarrassed by his situation, and his pro-Putin attitude.  The current chatter....they want him to resign from the SPD Party, and to terminate the services provided to former Chancellors.  He seems to enjoy the attention and I doubt that he does anything.

2.  Poland and Bulgaria about to go without Russian natural gas?

Yes.  And the reason is no one wants to pay in Rubles.  Contract says payment in dollars or Euro.

Observations

 1.  Is Russia losing the war?

'Losing' is not the word that I'd use.  There's no doubt that the common Russian on the street has no 'tread' on his feelings and whatever happens....happens.

I do think economically....with Putin running things, there's no real GDP for 2022, and likely to be fairly dismal for 2023 as well.

Rebuilding the military assets from losses?  Oh, that might take an entire decade, and if they have lost 25,000 young men.....it will have an affect on society in the decade to come.

2.  Did the Germans admit today that of their 350 Puma APCs....only around 150 are operational?

Yeah.  Pretty dismal news for any war preparation.

3.  City pool in Gottingen (Lower Saxony) allowing topless situation?

Well....yeah, after a long bit of discussion.  They signed the rules to allow this.

4.  Are Germans hyped-up about Twitter?  

NO.  So this is an interesting aspect.

Most Germans use two media apps.....WhatsApp and Facebook.  Instagram comes in third at 41-percent of Germans using it.  Twitter is used by 21-percent of people (2021 numbers).

There are around 7-million regular users (out of 83-million in population) in Germany.  

Some journalists and politicians are hyped-up but it just isn't a big deal with most Germans.  Most know Elon Musk, and if you asked how they ranked Twitter for misinformation or propaganda.....even before he came along to buy it.....folks were probably in the one out of four believing some propaganda/misinformation was 'somewhere' on Twitter.  (note, I said some)

If you asked me out of the 7-million users here....how many were in the age group of 15 to 25....well, there's no statistical data existing but I would imagine half of the 7-million are in the youth group, and it's their primary way of getting news or sports info.    

The Three Essential Problems of Misinformation (My Humble Thoughts)

 This is my list....some folks would write a 500-page book, but I think three thoughts brings you to ponder the 'big' things.

1.  Misinformation doesn't necessarily have to be news.  It could be songs, photos, movies, documentary pieces, pamphlets, and gimmicks.  

An example....you get suggesting the idea of free railway travel cards for everyone who works...meaning bus, tram, subway and regional rail service would be free for you.  If you stood up and said 'nothing is free'.....you'd be correct, and this is merely misinformation, but accepted by a political group as non-misinformation.  

An example....some song could be emotionally charged-up to be anti-war.  It also could be misinformation.

An example....if you read through half the information that various governments have put out over the past forty years on nuclear energy....probably half of it would be regarded as misinformation.

2.  Most misinformation can be corrected with facts, and the BS can be removed from the focus.  

If you forbid the misinformation and refuse to discuss facts....that brings people back to the starting point....with questions over your intention.

3.  Finally, censoring people or silencing them....isn't a progressive act of civilization....it's fascist.  Sit and ponder over that for a while.  

I think over the remainder of 2022....we will discuss this misinformation topic a good bit.  Maybe we need that discussion. 

German Police Raid

 Odd story this morning....German cops on a raid....of a car company (Suzuki) in the Frankfurt area.

Regional public TV (HR) is reporting some of the event.

Raid going on in Bensheim.  What the cops say....with Italian authorities in the mix as well....Suzuki sold around 22k diesel vehicles with a 'defeat-device' for test purposes.  In simple terms....it'd pass the emission test.  

It appears this went across to Italy and Hungary as well.

No comment on what happens to the private owners....stuck with the vehicles that can't pass the emissions test without the cheater-system. 

The War: 27 Apr 2022

 1.  Russia cut off natural gas flow to Poland, because they refused to pay in Rubles.  Rumor has it that Bulgaria is getting the same treatment.  Essentially, they are trying to divide the EU/NATO.  Poland says it's not much of a deal.....they've already found alternates.  Far as I can see....no one in Europe is paying in Rubles (contract stipulated Euro or dollars, until the contract runs out).

2.  Ammo depot for the Russians, just across in Russian territory.....caught on fire.  

3.  Supposed to be a Bundestag meeting today to chat over heavy weapons 'release' to the Ukraine.  I would expect harsh comments from Russia by tonight.

4.  Lot of chatter starting up over Russian deployment into Moldova.  Doesn't appear to be Russian soldiers....just ethnic Moldovan Russians with weapons.

Germany To Shut Off Russian Oil By Jan 2023?

 Well....today....the Minister of Economics (Habeck, Greens) said yeah....the current Russian amount is 12-percent, and he says the plan is in place to have zero percent by January. 

At the beginning of 2022....it was probably around 35-percent.  In the past sixty-odd days....based on some contract shifts....it's now down to 25-percent.

A big deal?  Well...there's still coal and natural gas issues....so they aren't finished with Russian influence.  

VAT On Vegetables?

For those who didn't know....in Germany....most normal things at the grocery store will have a Value-Added-Tax of 19-percent, unless it meets certain conditions (like Milk, Fruit, and Vegetables)....then the VAT is 7-percent.

Well....there's talk now of the Greens wanting to make the 'common-good' foods....to have zero VAT.

Odds of this happening?  No one says the pass-fail rate on this idea.  

If you were going to ask me how this would save for people?  I'd say for a 2-person couple over an entire year....it's probably in the 350-to-450 Euro range.  Course, my fear would be that they'd want to put increased taxes on beef....to lessen your consumption.

My Village Fest

 My village, for about 65 years, has held a spring fest.  Up until 2020....it meant 9 days of 'festing'.....mostly with apple wine served, lots of food, and a carnival-like fair.  For the bulk of this, they also operated a fest-tent, with hired-up bands, and tons of money off Friday/Saturday night operations.  

In the 1990s....I think they could make 150k D-Marks off a Saturday evening in the tent, between entry, beer and food. 

As 2017 came up....they had to go and hire up security because teenagers hyped up on booze and doing stupid crap.  In both 2018/2019....it was less of a fest because of the security cost, and the attitude that things needed more 'control'.

2020?  Based on the threat of Covid....the whole thing got cancelled, and the same for 2021.

This year?  They've decided to run what I'd call fest-lite.  Apple wine will be served on the street, with some food options.  Beyond that.....nothing much else will happen.

Covid, whether you like to admit it or not....still is a big deal and controls what 'fun' can exist.

The War: 26 Apr 2022

 1.  I noticed a 'warning' from the Russians on N-24 TV news this morning.....any weapons transfers from NATO members to the Ukrainians....will  be considered a 'future-target'.  

Just a humble guess, but there's probably dozens of contractor-thugs for the Russians....sitting around in Germany and waiting for instructions.

2.  Ukraine's Foreign Minister made a comment this morning....he thinks the Russians now view the conflict as a loss for them.  

BS-factor of '5' here but I would imagine the next 25 people after Putin and his 3-man defense group....all see this as a major problem and no real plus-up for Russia.

3.  German Finance Ministry is discussing idea of swapping Euro for Ukrainian currency.....Germans would assume the risk/cost factor.  Deal would ONLY be for refugees in Germany.

4.  Germany approved some type of military training deal....where training required for weapons to be given....would be on German territory.  

5.  Some Russian TV 'guest-expert' said last night that no Ukrainians speak the language of Ukraine.....they all speak Russian.  This was on some live show, with other guests....no one from the group disputed the group.  He also said that the Ukrainian Nazis also speak Russian....which would beg the question if the Nazis were Russian to start with.

6.  A floating LNG terminal-ship would be operational in early 2023 (roughly a year away) near Brunsbuttel.  Delivrey of LNG ships would start shortly after that.

7.  EU says that by 2027....it will be totally free of Russian natural gas/oil.  BS-factor?  Maybe '7'.....that's five years away.

Pretty Wild Event

 Yesterday morning in Wiesbaden....in the midst of the pedestrian-shopping zone....two guys met.

We could say that they weren't on the best of relations.

There's an argument that starts up, between the 42 year old guy, and the 65 year old guy.

In the end, the older guy pulls out a taser-gun, and attempts to fire the stun-gun at the younger guy.  The police don't say a lot after this event....other than they arrived, secured the weapon, and called the ambulance for two guys.

Charges?  Well....the taser would be classified as a 'weapon' and I suspect the older guy will get dragged into court over that....but if the younger guy slugged the older guy first....there's probably a charge for that.  

Oddly enough....this all starts around 9 AM on a Monday morning.  Wiesbaden has changed a good bit over the past thirty years for me....this is just another example of that.

My Five Gut-Feelings on EU/German 'Fixing' of Misinformation

 On the agenda developing:

1.  Once you've erased and cleansed Germany and the EU of 'bad-evil' misinformation.....will they turn to true information and start rating it as 'potential' misinformation, and cleanse that as well?

2.  If some politician utters something as 'true' information, when the government has deemed it misinformation....will you punish the politician?  (Please no....I'm not asking for my SPD friend).

3.  If they violate the misinformation 'rule'.....how will they punish themselves?

4.  Will people reach a point where they turn off TV, radio and the mass media business....because people fear real information has blended into misinformation, and EVERYTHING seems fake or bogus?

5.  Can science be dragged into the misinformation discussions when they present something that is theory-based and not really supported by any facts?  

German News: 25 Apr 2022

 1.  Some hype going on with the German train networks.....they expect to lose a fair amount of money with this 9-Euro a month 'free' local/regional train ticket....so they've told the Federal government to haul out more cash.  Well....they aren't that agreeable.  Some people think this gimmick will fall apart in the next month as the federal government doesn't have the cash to cover this 'thing'.

2.  Focus had a piece this morning talking about this new Russian offensive, and suggesting it might be the last offensive....because of the trend of losing tanks/APCs each day.  My question would be....just how long can the Russians maintain this offensive with manpower and the average losses per day?  It's hard to see this going past July.  Plus you have to discuss the generals being killed....roughly one each week.

3.  No shocker on Macron win in France.....18-point lead as the election finished up. Le Pen simply doesn't have the 'brand' to sell, and it's time that she moved on and let someone give it a try for her party.

4.  I drove approximately 160 km north of Frankfurt yesterday.  I'll make this statement....the speed limit from unlimited to 120, to 100, to 80 (construction zone) on a continual basis.  I'll bet I had at least forty speed changes in this 110-minute ride.  You continually have to pay attention if you want to avoid tickets.

5.  There's some hype brewing over residential parking in highly urbanized cities (Berlin for example), and folks are suggesting a 'permit' costing you in the 360 Euro range (ridiculous fee to be just parking on the street). 

The 9-Euro Bahn 'Fear'?

 Over the past week, I've seen a lot of chatter going on....news and social media in Germany....over the upcoming train-ticket deal (9-Euro per month buying you complete/free local/regional train travel per person).  The deal will exist (starting 1 June, and end at the end of August) throughout all of Germany. 

So, here's the 'fear'.....the Bahn guys are now suggesting that virtually all trains (locally and regionally) will be overloaded, with highly frustrated people.....if anything fails.  You know....like those 300-passenger trains carrying 400 folks, and the AC breaks down.

Some folks think there's a huge amount of public criticism coming over the 9-Euro ticket deal, and how the Bahn just isn't capable of giving out the service like people think.

My gut feeling?  I would suggest that you really don't want to go use this 9-Euro ticket on Mondays or Fridays.  I'd also suggest that any venture that starts at 8 AM....probably will be overflowing with families.  If you were to take the deal....maybe you ought to show up at 6 AM and try to reach your regional destination by 7:30 AM.  Don't go expecting the trip to be perfect, and if a really hot day.....get some idea of a plan 'B' if the AC on the train fails in the mid-afternoon.  

Is Elon Musk Going To Have German 'Problems'?

 Well.....if his plan goes forward, and I'm guessing right now.....a fair number of German political figures are huddled around and discussing the 'mess' approaching....Elon is probably going to be confronted.

The suggestion of this meeting?  The Germans will tell Elon that his control of Twitter will lead to right-wing extremism, and they intend to punish him if he doesn't conform to the standard Twitter theme of the past.

Elon will grin, and then ask if they'd like all of the past correspondence between German authorities and the old Twitter management to be released to the general public.  The 'room' will become quiet, and then some people will exit the discussion.

The threat of fines?  That will come, but Elon will suggest that he'll require each member to pay in some fashion (maybe a monthly fee, to participate)....so he'll turn to the German authorities and ask how they intend to pay for their 'powers'?  You know.....a service fee to have control over something....like free speech.  

He'll call it 'censorship powers' or 'prohibitive speech buttons'.  

He'll then give them a figure of 1-billion-odd Euro a year....to be their fee for service.

The Germans will turn back to him and respond that they don't pay for free-speech-powers.....to which Elon will respond....well, now you do.  

So the Germans will go....probably six months later to a demonstration of turning off Twitter access to the German public.  Then, overnight....everyone will get a VPN, and demonstrate that German 'power' is remarkably 'light' and not worth much discussion.

The worry about misinformation from the Germans?  Maybe it's legit....but where does this control start and stop?  If you started to actively watch and measure misinformation on a daily basis.....a typical German probably gets twenty 'bits' of misinformation (from ultra-right to ultra-left, and from the government itself) per day.  I'd even be skeptical of public TV news, the German soccer league, and the Bahn folks.  

Elon might even add a button where people can note their skeptical view of the news from some source (1-Very Skeptical, 2-Somewhat Skeptical, 3- Neutral, 4-Somewhat Trusting, and 5-Very Trusting).  The ARD and ZDF folks might be shocked how they'd rate on a hour-by-hour basis. 

Just prepare yourself....this Elon-misinformation discussion is going to be thrust into the mainstream of German discussions within the next month.  

Five Things In The German News

 1.  This Madeleine McCann Case.  There is enough evidence on the table now to say some German guy (already in prison for rape of a 72-year-old woman) was the one behind the kidnapping of the kid.  The German authorities have moved to the next step....a legal case.  They 'think' they've got enough evidence to get some kind of end-result.  

This leading to the belief that the kid is dead?  More than likely.

One odd factor?  This particular area of Portugal where the kid disappeared....seems to have an exceptionally high number of pedophiles and sexual predator's.  

2.  Two more Russian Generals killed?  Yeah, and a third general wounded.  It appears that the main headquarters in Cherson was hit.  

3.  Macron likely to win today (55-to-58 percent predicted).

4.  Lot of chatter over the past week of the Linke Party, and some journalists believe the party will go through a split by the end of 2023.  A lot of this negativity goes to a party that could not stir up passion in the western part of Germany for twenty years.

5.  Turkey stood up and blocked Russian military aircraft from flying over to Syria.  To fix this.....Russia would have to pass over Iran and Iraq (meaning more intense problems). 

Is A Putin-Victory Necessary Now To Seal His Legacy?

 I saw this topic being brought up this week, and even some Russians were openly discussing the matter.....that the whole resume of Putin is mostly 'empty'.

I questioned the idea of 'empty'.

There must be ninety pages of Wiki material on Putin, and it goes from one extreme to another.....there's even a page on Covid (more or less, he saved Russia from Covid....if you read the forty-odd lines).

Putin saved Russia from collapse.....Putin saved Russia from the evil west....Putin saved Russia from bloggers....Putin saved Russia from stupid Oligarch folks.  I suspect if he were a general (like the typical ones you see on Russian shows).....he'd have around four-hundred medals on his chest and mostly lean forward because of the enormous weight on his chest.

The question then arises.....is it all mostly hype, and he really needed some military 'victory' to solidify his great contribution to the 'motherland'?

I am reminded of the 2007 episode where Putin went off for a summer rest in Siberia.....had a number of pictures taken with his shirt off, and the caption was stamped 'be like Putin' was the hype of the summer.  It was mostly a lean Putin on a horse, without a shirt, and he looked like a youthful Rambo.  Beyond the image....did he do much worth two-thousand lines on a Wiki-page?  No....not really.

So I might agree....he needs some legacy here toward the end.  Defeating the Nazis in the Ukraine would have been a good deed and probably kept him on the top ten Russians of all time list.  The fact that there might not be many Nazis there, or that it took forty-odd-thousand dead conscripts to achieve some marginal 'end' to the operation?  It's best not to bring that up.

Some Conscript/Putin statue figures to be put up after he passes?  The Russians are famous for putting giant statues, and I kinda suspect they will have some a dozen life-size Conscripts in some fight stance, with a Putin 'bigger-than-life' figure leading them, and some patriotic song at the dedication ceremony to remember the military operation (not the WAR).  

Interview Chatter

 N-TV brought up this odd topic here in the AM today....on Russian mercenaries working for the Russian government.

There was an interview by Veronica Grimm.....who talked about this one odd fact....mercenaries are looking at the 'work' required and their willing nature to take on the 'work'....but NOT in Rubles.

This was a long-winded talk....mostly over energy, economics, and the path ahead for Germany.

There isn't a lot of thought process going on, and Grimm does point out some obvious things which ought to be top priority for German leadership.

If Germans continue to buy oil/natural gas/coal....paying in Euro....they are helping to pay for the mercenaries.  The minute they go to an embargo....there's no real Euro movement, and mercenary crowd will stand off without interest in doing the 'dirty work'.

Any Germans really interested in a blunt embargo situation?  Oh, I'd say no more than one-percent of society is agreeable to this.  No one wants to shut down the German economy.  

Where this ends up?  Unknown.

A Comedy Developing

 This week...the Bavarian Integration Commissioner (Gudrun Brendel-Fischer) wrote up a piece for the organization....to 'educate' the public (meaning not refugees or asylum folks)....but actual German/Bavarian voters.

So what she said was.....'Ukrainian refugees didn't have to be told by the integration folks....how a washing machine works, or that cooking on the floor of the room is not allowed'.  

In simple terms.....she was suggesting that they were at the same level of Germans, and there's a whole bunch of things which to be detailed out to 'other' refugees, so this period is different from 2015 to 2018.  

Well....this comment got the SPD Party all riled up because it sounded racist.  They want Brendel-Fischer to resign.

Another woke-moment?  More or less.

Around six years ago, I got into a discussion with a Damascus refugee.  Not having been there.....I was asking questions.  Yes, they had social media, Twitter, and reality TV.  He went into some detail about their version of 'Dallas' (Al Khorba)....which had a JR kind of bad guy, and some family in-fighting in some remote twelve-goat village (his words not mine).  He admitted driving in Germany freaked him out, and that he was a bit shocked over the amount of rules to survive in Germany.  

Did Brendel-Fishcher say something silly?  You have to remember that various people show up in Germany these days, and some are more advanced than others.  You don't need some fourteen-hour lecture for South Koreans, Malaysians, or Canadians.  Yes, there's probably ten-percent of the incoming refugees who weren't living in an advanced society, and they DO need the fourteen-hour lecture to grasp how advanced Germany is.

Was Brendel-Fishcher handing out misinformation?  Not that I could see.  The fact she uttered something to get people freaked out....admitting some folks aren't advanced?  That's how silly the whole integration/immigration business has become in the last decade.  

On the positive side....at least we have a good fake 'get-hyped-up' mess to keep the SPD Party busy in Bavaria for at least two weeks.  And yes, there are misinformation elements to it....so that should double the comedy developing.    

Germany, Social Media, and the Bogeyman Syndrome

 Shortly after the November 2016 US election....various German journalists and politicians huddled together to discuss how Trump could possibly 'beat' Clinton.  With some help from Facebook/Twitter 'players'....they eventually came to something that I would call the 'Bogeyman syndrome'.

Normal people (in the German mindset) would not vote for a non-intellectual or a far-extreme candidate. Yes, they did try to suggest some 1930s situation going on, and where this led to.....was social media being a tool for 'good' and 'evil'.

Basically....everything about social media....was related to misinformation.  

Fear started up in Germany....maybe this misinformation business would arrive for the 2017 German election....maybe it would take root and affect society in Germany.  

They went to the obvious answer....to control or apply tools against misinformation.  Tools.....that meant using private foundations (in the US) to hinder or fight misinformation.  Yes, government funding went beyond the borders, and created these devices.  This was to fight the evil bogeyman. 

So you will sit there and ask three logical questions: (1) isn't the whole landscape full of misinformation today, (2) did all of this effort simply multiply the problem instead of dividing or downsizing it? and (3) did we really need some intellectuals using their 'special-power' to resolve this?

First, lets be honest and admit that on a daily basis....there's probably over forty bits of misinformation that we get on a daily basis....some partially true....some  marginally true.  Some over sports....some over the economy....some over Russia....some over Ukraine....some over the EU, and even some over reality TV.  

Conspiracy stories?  What's the average.....five per day being created out of thin air, and one of the five might actually be mostly true?

Once the German government went into the 'we-must-save-humanity' syndrome....did they have some well-thought-out plan, or was this just a quickly thrown together situation....without much thought on consequences?  

My humble take?  We are in a Twilight Zone type world of misinformation....with it being weaponized by the entertainment industry, foreign governments, reality TV stars, journalists, pretend-journalists, and various political groups with agendas. 

We are now worrying about the bogeyman so much....that a second and more dangerous bogeyman might enter the room, and be of a bigger threat than the original misinformation bogeyman.  

So I leave you with Einstein's quote: "The world is a dangerous place to live in, not because of people who are evil, but because of people who won't do anything about it."

Housing Costs in Germany

 Affordable housing is a hot topic in Germany, and I noticed N-TV had a update this morning on housing.

The Federal Institute for Research on Building, Urban Affairs and Spatial Development 'says'......that home prices ought to lessen shortly.  How much?  Well....that part is left out of the story.

What you can say....in major cities (like Frankfurt, Koln, Stuttgart, Berlin, etc)....prices are at a fantastic level.  Even if you drove 30 minutes beyond the city limits.....you shouldn't expect much of a discount.  

In my region of Wiesbaden.....you'd have to around 40 km beyond the boundary....to start seeing some lessening of home prices.  In my village (shadow of Wiesbaden)....if you went looking for a home less than 500,000 Euro ($540k roughly), you won't find anything. 

The claim here by the research folks is that Covid, energy prices, inflation, and the war....have brought a decline up (which you don't yet see in home pricing).  

My belief?  Maybe there's some five to eight percent decline that you start to see by the fall of 2022 on home prices, and maybe it bottoms out at 10-percent by the end of 2023.  

Would that be enough to change things?  No.  I would argue that it still leaves half the population in a no-win situation.  I'd also argue that within five years...the economy will find a path to recovery, and normal pricing will return.  

The War: 22 Apr 2022

 1.  Some chatter on N-TV today in Germany.....belief spoken by Kremlin critic Navalny.  He says there's likely to be a coup-like setting being discussed...driven by insiders....more than protest folks.  

Fact-based?  No....just his humble opinion.  

I would suggest that virtually everyone connected to the government on economics or commerce affairs.....has a pretty 'sour' attitude about Putin's little operation, and has developed a negative attitude about where this will end up in the end.

2.  The Ministry of Defense for Russia stood up last night, and corrected the military dead slide for Russia.  

Total solders dead for Russia: 17,000 (more or less).   But then they added....there's seven-thousand soldiers that they can't find (might be prisoners, might be deserters, or might be dead).  So the discussion goes to around 24,000.  

My humble belief.....if they come to admit this number....then it's likely that it's only marginally correct, and it might go up to 30k or more.

3.  German Chancellor Scholz in trouble?  In the past week....the delivery of weapons to the Ukraine came up, and it's obvious that the Germans are stalling on some deliveries.  Explanation?  No.....it would appear that certain people are just stalling the delivery. 

Most political folks seem to be grinning and looking at Scholz in some funny way....as if he is the guy pushing this stall-agenda.

4.  Off N-TV this morning.....some mental experts in Germany....say that from Ukrainian arrivals....one out of three has some PTSD or depression issue....requiring help.

If you ask me....if you could examine the Russian conscripts and their families.....same issue going on as well.

5.  This idea of a fake-referendum 'vote' for Russian independence around Kherson and Zaporizhia, Ukraine?  Someone has a list of registered voters (don't ask how) and they seem to suggest that x-number would show up....vote, and then be 'free'.

If this list of registered voters became public knowledge later?  It'd be a likely target list for Ukrainian government folks to go after some folks.

6.  This picture yesterday of Putin meeting the Defense Chief?  I watched the video....maybe 60 seconds long.  Putin has his right hand in a 'grip' in a full view of the camera....continual movement noticed with his muscles of the hand.  Just looked odd.....like he needed to grip the table rather than rest his hand on his leg.

7.  Anton Hofreiter (Green Party) is appearing almost nightly on German TV and seems to present more of a Chancellor image than Scholz (SPD Party). Last night, he said that he expects the war to continue on.....through a minimum of the summer, and unless some things change....he expects a play on other countries beyond the Ukraine.  

If there were an election now within Germany?  The SPD would be lucky to carry 20-percent of the vote, and with Hofreiter as the Chancellor-candidate for the Greens....I think they could easily get up around 30-percent of the national vote.  

NRW Election Topics

 The Wahl-o-Mat program is up for North Rhine-Westphalia now.  It's a 38-question 'test' which helps you determine who you should vote for (multiple parties in Germany create this path where you tend to vote on topics, not candidates).  The test is here.

I looked it over and the chief fifteen-odd topics which I felt were interesting....were:

1.  Should coal-produced energy still continue on after 2038 (the federal idea is it'll end at 2038)?

2.  Should schools in the state still continue on-line to some degree....even when the virus period is almost non-existent?

3.  Should Germany still provide weapons to the Ukraine?  (Touchy subject in some states where ethnic Russians live in Germany)

4.  Should the state evaluate farm land and mandate how many animals can 'live' there? (Another touchy subject where farmers don't want the advice or mandate of the government)

5.  Should video-surveillance be increased in public areas (Very touchy subject in some major cities)

6.  Should the state government be able to mandate solar panels in constructing a new home?

7.  Should political parties be limited or mandated on equalization of women in the leadership roles of the party?

8.  Should the state mandate 30 kph as the speed limit in all urban areas?

9.  Should the state be able to mandate limits on building areas?

10.  Should the state have more powers to hand the police on internet hate crimes?

11. In urbanized areas, should decision-making situations.....should kids have a say in laws/rules which affect them? 

12.  Should WDR (the regional public TV/Radio system) lessen the number of radio networks in the region (there are nine radio networks within this one region, and some argue that a couple of these may only have a thousand people on a particular day that listen to the network)

13. Should the state create (out of thin air).....jobs for long-term unemployed? (Long discussed issue because some Germans have been unemployed for more than ten years and have no enthusiasm to return to work)

14. When combating infections/viruses....the state should have more power given to it....from the federal government?  (Some would ask....what kind of power, before answering this question)

15.  Should new wind-turbines be built a minimum of 1,000 meters from homes? (Lot of discussion over this, with people complaining of dizziness or headaches from the action of the blades.....science-facts here are limited)

On questions dealing with migrants/immigrants.....maybe less concern than some states.  NRW is one of the more populated states of Germany, and migrants make up a fair percentage.  Unemployment rate (Nov 2021 rate) was 6.7-percent (certainly not as low as Bavaria with 2.9-percent, but in the middle of the pack for most German states).  Most of the questions have little to do with commerce....although that farm animal question is a pretty 'hot' topic.  

Date of the election:15 May 2022 (SPD and CDU are running neck-and-neck at 30-percent each, and the Greens at 14-percent).  You can discount the Linke Party entirely out of this election (will be lucky to get 3-percent).  

State Election Coming Up

 I looked at the Wahl-o-Mat for Schleswig-Holstein (the German state) having the election in about two weeks.  The Wahl-o-Mat carries about 38 questions which tell you the typical interest of folks in the state.  Some observations:

1.  Support for wind generator comes up....if you are agreeable to approving placement or limiting placement.

2. Should everyone be forced on the Covid vaccination?

3.  The state should be forced to provide tabs to all school kids (free).

4.  The state should assess the size of farms, and how many animals will be permitted.

5.  The state should be forced to pay out funding for rural public transportation.

6.  Visiting WW II memorial sites (against Nazis) should be forced upon all kids in school.

7.  Should cities have the right to refuse refugees?

8.  If you have lobbyist interest....you should be forced to register on a local/regional list.

9.  If you were rejected for refugee status.....you should be deported.

10.  If you apply for asylum.....on that very day (day one)....you should get a work permit.

There's a lot of differing opinions by locals on these topics.  I'd say that around 10-percent of the 38 questions....revolve around asylum/refugees.  Both the CDU and SPD are likely to carry 60-percent of the voting pattern presently (combined).  The Greens are in the 16-to-20 percent range.  

My 100-Day Theory On The War

 Today is day 56 of the Russian-Ukraine war.

I have this theory....that almost every day....some group of Russian authorities have a teleconference with Putin and they bring up economic issues brewing....unemployment, and massive chaos for existing business operations.

Everyday.....he pushes them back.

I suspect by day 100....if the war hasn't ended.....some folks will suggest that various members of the military need to go, and in the midst of this.....Putin gets put on the list as well.

What has to happen at that point?  I would suggest seven things:

1.  Putin and the entire top level have to be put out.  They probably don't want to accept this, but there's not much of a positive trend to come up....unless they go somewhere.  

2.  War crimes have to be openly discussed.  Maybe you can get by with forty-odd Russian officers went off to life in prison.  

3.  Russia has to write down some agreement to pay for damages done (probably limiting it to 10-billion Euro a year) but going on for 20-odd years.  

4.  Some discussion has to start about how to get the 100k to 200k IT workers to come back to Russia.  You can't go forward without them in the big picture.

5.  Some discussion to start over oil and natural gas sales lost to Europe.  Presently, the trend could be stalled to some degree....losing around a quarter to half of the sales.  But if we get to the end of 2022....I'm betting on most all oil and natural gas (along with coal) sales to be a lost cause, and those Chinese sales?  Well....it might take three years to get that back on line.

6.  Finally, someone will have to bring up the hundred-year tradition of propaganda existing in Russia.....with how you rectify this for the future.  I'm not suggesting a truth-commission.....but something has to be put on the table to give a different view of reality.

I'm suggesting at some point....mid-summer (July probably) where the crap has hit the fan and a hundred days of a military operation has brought serious losses to the Russian image.  

The seven-day war.....going to a hundred?  That's not easily branded and sold to the Russian public.  

Observations

 1.  I watched about 15 minutes this morning of the TV debate between France's Macron and Le Pen (with supplied English sub-titles).  I'll just say that Le Pen doesn't come across as a four-star character.  I'll also admit that it's bad to admit that French debate action is worth watching.  I was waiting for the Biden-bunny to arrive and take both Macron and Le Pen away.  

2.  There's been some journalists in Germany (in recent days) hyping up the procrastination mechanism of this SPD-led government.  To be kinda honest....Merkel did the procrastination gimmick for sixteen years.  It's not a new strategy.

3.  I noticed this morning a number update on Covid test cost.  Presently, since day one.....12-billion Euro has been spent on the national test program.  There's some 'gut-feeling' among the general public that a fair amount of this was fraud, but it may take several years for all the cases to be laid out and conducted in court.....costing several billion Euro more to prove, and then several billion Euro more to house convicted criminal in jail.  Wouldn't surprise me if we get to 24-billion for everything.

4.  New movie coming out in Germany (I've seen the previews)....entitled 'Northman'.  Vikings on rage, hyped-up, and lot of blood.  On my Rambo-scale....just watching the preview....I'd give it a '9'.

5.  I noticed that Venice came up in the news....on tourism.  For some reason, it was a big habit of tourists to just arrive and then start looking around the city for a hotel (yeah, without reservations).  The city authority finally stood up and said.....no, you can't keep doing this.  So either you have reservations somewhere, or you aren't going to be allowed into the city.

What Is Actual Fascism?

 Could you recognize it....without some journalist telling you?

So this is the general description: you have a country where forced control over opposition exists....meaning there's one party, one theme for the public, and no open discussion over any policy or strategy.

In this country, there is a written 'script' about society/commerce/economics.  No matter how stupid the economy runs....you just accept things.

The country has one strong figure/party that has a central mechanism over the country.  Whatever comes out of the capital.....is stamped 'approved'.

National unity in this country is what matters.

The nation will often portray its theme as bringing the nation into 'one'.

Everywhere you turn....there is symbolism (in movies, TV, statues, public days off).

Masculinity tends to be a major part of the trend.  Most will suggest that you can't have fascism....if a woman is in charge, and half the government is made up of women. 

There is always an element of violence accepted (demonstrations, riots, etc) to overcome the great 'evil' that confronts the government.

There's always a feeling of people being victims, and that the government is coming to your rescue.

Fascism is always seen as a 'solution' to problems.....if you just had enough central control....enough 'adult' leadership....enough changes, then things would get better. 

Linke Party Business

 Susanne Hennig-Wellsow resigned yesterday as the co-party-chief of the Linke Party.  

Big deal?  Well....there are several pieces to this story.

First, part of the excuse she gave is that there are suspected sexual assault cases that have occurred within the party.  There is more rumor than fact....on this idea.  It does appear that some episodes have occurred, and the leadership of the party has refused to conduct an investigation or simply left it to the police. 

Second, after that Saarland election....you can say there was a massive loss for the Linke Party in the state election.  It doesn't look that great in the next two state elections for the far left party.

Finally, this was a co-chief situation....meaning the party worked up the idea of having two women as party chiefs.  Just my general take, but I don't think the two individuals (second being Janine Wissler) were getting along that great.  

Is the Linke Party in trouble?  15 May is the next state election, in NRW.  Expected polling for the Linke Party?  Showing mostly 2 to 4 percent presently.....not that great.  

Schlesweg-Holstein on the 8th of May?  Same story....2 to 4 percent.

Lower-Saxony on the 9th of October?  Same story.....2 to 4 percent.

If you ask me....the party by 2023 will be pretty desperate, and seeing past-voters moving over to the Green Party.  

The War: 21 Apr 2022

 1.  There was a fair amount of discussion over the past couple of days leading to the moment where the 'war' button was pushed.  Around Moscow, the general wording of this rumor is that four individuals met (Putin, the Defense Chief, and two generals).  They made the decision overall.  

What goes with this story (if you take it to be somewhat true)....is that in the past couple of weeks....individuals who hold power over commerce and the economy have had meetings with Putin to 'hint' that serious problems are developing.  The Putin reaction?  The operation must be completed....no matter what the toll is.  

I've pondered over this and wondered (if it were all true)....is there any concern by Putin over the economic survival of Russia....or if dragging down to Albania-status (cutting the GDP by 50-percent) is the end-result of this whole strategy.  

2.  Interesting 'on-the-street interview by Channel 1420 in Russia today....asking what people think of Nazis in the Ukraine.  Worth watching.

3.  Apparently over at the nuke site (Chernobyl)....there's going to be a new map made up of the 'hot-zones'.  If you were Russian and deployed there.....you might want to go and ask some questions.

4.  There is some chatter (zero evidence) that Russian hackers may go after European/US companies with ransom-ware software, and bleed them dry to get money back to Russia.  

The 'Hesitant' Chancellor

 Some folks have suggested here in Germany over the past week....that Putin made a direct person-to-person comment to Chancellor Scholz.....that nuclear warfare is very close if Germany provides any more weapons to the Ukraine.

Truth to the story?  So far.....none.

This goes to limited comments that Scholz made on Tuesday, and people are now thinking that something was said by Putin which Scholz can't discuss in public (N-24 suggests that today).

My take?  There is an extreme fear existing in Germany that nuclear weapons could be the next step.  A lot of the older generation remember the 1960s and 1970s.  If you took the whole Bundestag group (700 of them).....I would imagine that half would readily admit that you can't go past a certain point, or nuke war is a real possibility.  

If some threat was made like this?  Then the whole goal of the SPD Party for sixty-plus years....the Ostpolitik scheme....has been a total blunder and the relationship of Russia to Germany.....is totally finished.  It'll never work again.  

Three Observations Over German News Today

 1.  I have to admit over the past three weeks.....this Anton Hofreiter of the German Green Party....has come out like some bold 'Kennedy-like' political figure, and is almost daily hyping over the German issues in supporting the Ukrainian efforts.

He'd always been a top ten Green figure, but after the September 2021 election....he was one of the folks who didn't get a job in the new SPD-Green-FDP government, and was destined to be 'let go'....sending him to the EU Parliament.  

2.  You will be hearing a fair amount over the next year with the German company Demecan.  It's a German pharmaceutical company that got big into Cannabis, and is currently at the front of the line when the Scholz government finally approves Cannabis to be legally sold in Germany.

3.  Some odd crime scene developing today in Chemnitz.....four folks dead in an apartment.....two couples, dead by some form of violence.  More to be heard by end of the day.  

Irrational Chatter and Fear

 I sat and watched an interview this morning, which got into the topic of Russophobe (the irrational fear of Russians).  

If you asked me if Germans walk around presently with this 'fear'....I'd generally say no.  However, I'd qualify it to be more of a Putin-phobia or war-phobia or nuclear missile-phobia.  

The problem here is that to have a phobia in your 'hand'.....it has to be irrational.  That's always a qualifier for the term.  I had some college class once where the professor had to waste twenty minutes getting the term 'irrational' across to the class, and in the end with half of us.....irrational just didn't seem too clear.

Do Russians worry about this Russophobe?  I don't think so....they just know it exists, and frankly....there's little they can do about it other than offering you some vodka or holding your hand.

Do Russians have some irrational fear of Nazis (Naziphobe)?  I'd have to give some thought to that....even in Putin's case....he might have this fear of Ukrainian Nazis existing in his mind, and might dwell on this five or six hours a day.  I might give credence to the idea...since 1945....a whole lot of vodka-chats and evening movie-entertainment....probably dwells over and over on Nazis.  

But if you assumed all of this....then what the hell kind of 'rehab' would exist to deprogram you from this irrational fear?  

That 200k Story

 There was an odd commentary by the mayor of Moscow yesterday....openly suggesting that jobs for 200,000 city residents might be on the line. 

Did he get the green-light from Putin to suggest this?  Hard to say.

Population of the city?  12.6-million (at least, that's what was said in 2021 by the city government).

Did the 200k number reflect reality?  Well....you can't make that case.  It could well go into the 500,000 range, or just 20,000 range.

Here's the chief problem, if any of this does occur.....on unemployment, you get just enough to cover food.  So it wouldn't take more than three months of this massive collapse to change the perceptions of people and create chaos.

Just at the Moscow Airport....where around 17k people worked in 2021.....they've laid off around 40-percent (7k people) in the past four weeks.  I would speculate that another cut will come shortly.

Any of this worrying the city government?  I think their chief worry is that a mortgage collapse is approaching,  Other than printing more Rubles....I'm not sure what else can be done.

Lauterbach Kidnapping Update

N-TV laid out the whole basic story of what was to be an attempted kidnapping of the German federal Health Minister (Lauterbach).

 Story leads back to Bavaria.  From what cops found in one house....a fair amount of Nazi artifacts/souvenirs, with weapons.

This general plan?  Well....it would have involved using explosives on power stations/lines, and trying to create some massive chaos with the general public.

Crazy talk?  I would make the statement that these folks were on the fringe of society to start with, and Covid came along to focus them on this government take-over plan. It is wild stuff, and almost comical to consider what their plan was and how Lauterbach would fit into it.

Charges?  I think when everything is done.....there will be enough on charges to put them into a secure place for ten years.  It would not shock me if someone tried to make a movie over this whole thing....three years into the future.

The War: 20 Apr 2022

 1.  Statement released by the German gov't this morning....indicating that heavy weapons (meaning tanks) probably will not be released by Germany to the Ukraine.  Lot of explanation is that these are still needed by Germany for 'obligations'. 

2.  The German Federal Minister for Development (SPD Party member) made a statement this AM that a clear policy on global food 'security' needs to exist.  In her remarks.....she hints that Putin is using food as a 'weapon' (meaning lack of food).

3.  The EU suggests (without a lot of facts) that around 20k mercenaries are in the war now....for Russia.  BS-factor?  Maybe a '8'.  Curiously, you'd have to pay them way more than the conscripts.  I'd be thinking of a factor of 20 to 50.  

Could This Dark Era of Russia Be A Good Thing For Western Civililzation?

 I saw this question asked today, and it's an interesting thing to ponder.

Western civilization 'experts' (at least they proclaim themselves as this).....are likely sitting there and looking at the past 500 years.  In their minds....of the top hundred writers to live and breathe.....Russia probably contributed a quarter of these people to western civilization.

Dostoevsky, Pushkin, Solzhenitsyn, and Nabokov would be on that list.

Some people might even say that cutting off society from the worldwide internet....might not be such a bad thing, and Russians would get back to simple conversation, and lecture each other on charm, and lust.

I always thought of Russia being this place where there was Moscow, St Petersburg, and then 99-percent of the rest of the country as some 'hole-in-the-wall' living situation.  

In some way.....I felt like Moscow was the 'engine' and the 'brakes' of the country.   If Moscow was failing in some way....it would be obvious across the rest of the country. 

Will regular Russians just stay.....to be entertained by Putin's military operation and economic decline?  If you had a real education....real 'drive'....then I think you'd take your family and depart the country.  Maybe the lesser folks would stay and wait this out....but if you ranked the top one-million Russians on resume value....my humble belief is that the bulk of them will be gone inside of a year. 

So, maybe in exiting the country....these folks bring some Russian values and ideas with them.....to Germany, Canada, and the US.  Maybe it is a positive thing.   

The Ones Who Left

 This morning in Germany, N-TV (commercial news) came out with a curious story.

It's been discussed for two weeks now, and their journalists have gotten more info....but it seems that a large segment of Russian IT people have left Russia.

Just in Armenia?  100,000 Russians have resettled in the past month.

Some are worried over the economic spiral....some worry over being drafted.

Some ending up in Georgia and Turkey?  Yeah.

Presently, the number of Russians who left?  Unknown.  For a couple of weeks....the exit to Finland was possible, and I've read personal accounts of Russians who flew into Kazakhstan....looking for a European angle for asylum.  

My gut impression....these are all people who had a better-than-average pay situation, and won't accept a stagnant economy.  

Truth Commission Starting Up?

 Well....it's an odd story.

As the Nord Stream II pipeline got permissions done and started up....they had a fair amount of 'help' from the state government of Mecklenburg-Vorpommen (run by the SPD Party).  At the top of the 'help' group was the Premier-President Manuela Schwesig.

There are suggestions that things were corrupted in some way.

So the Green Party of the region are pushing now for a state-run truth commission to determine who did what, and how corrupt was this.

Where this might go?

I can see three scenarios: (1) Gazprom (the Russian company running the natural gas pipeline) shuttled funds toward the SPD folks to get permissions done easily, (2) Mecklenburg got no funding but pushed aside environmental concerns, or (3) nothing much unethical/illegal occurred.  

If you haven't figured that out.....there's a fight brewing over SPD-voters and the Greens believe they can trim the SPD's 'shadow' down a good bit.  To be honest, the Greens may have zero evidence, and simply be 'fishing' for evidence.  

Russia Central Bank Says....

 Well, it's kinda interesting.....the statement read this morning says that the whole economy/business models.....have to be revamped.

It was a fair amount of chatter....basically saying X, Y and Z won't function anymore, and something new has to be created by mid-summer.

I sat there....thinking over this.

Russia is one of those countries with an abundance of economists.  I'll wager that there more than 100,000 graduated individuals claiming the title of economist.  Based on chatter I heard five years ago......it's like three women for every male in the profession (if this Russian comment was correct).

So, how would such an economy work?  

Would you just go to farmer Joe and say produce X, and later make up a profit number for him? 

Would you manufacture three extra Rubles for every six realistic Rubles?

Would you cut everyone's pay by 3.5-percent?  

For some reason, I just don't see this going far.  

Putin sitting there and listening to more than eight minutes of this?  I doubt that as well.

The Oligarch community shaking their heads?  How could you invent some economy that can't function with anyone other than China?  

This is the moment you'd pull out your stash of vodka/whiskey and sip a liberal amount for the next week or so.  

The War: 18 Apr 2022

 1.  Well....it's a pretty weird story off N-TV this morning....talking over the Ukrainian language and the way it's been 'changed'.

Ukrainians have gone now and started referring to Russians in the Ukraine.....as 'occupiers'....same usage on Germans in WW II. 

Ukrainians have gone to use the term 'racists' to identify Russians as well.  

Then the Ukrainians have gone to term the war as a fight of good against evil.....you know....like the stories by JRR Toldien and the 'Lord of the Rings'.  So the term 'Orc' is being used to describe Russian soldiers.  

2.  Here in Germany, the Association of Towns and Municipalities stood up over the weekend, and said a "reset" needs to occur over protection and civil disaster activities.  In the wording of their statement....they also uttered the need to protect against war.  If you'd suggested something like this just a war ago....to include the term 'war'......it would have been laughed at.

3.  There are more than a hundred German investigations going on for war-violations in the Ukraine.  All would lead to war crimes, and court activity.

4.  The paperwork for the Ukrainian application for membership in the EU?  Completed over the weekend.  No idea how long it'd take for a review.  Typically....you'd be talking about several months of review.

5.  Eighth Russian dead since the war started.  Kind of a odd deal.....they had the funeral for the guy over the weekend.  No one knows how he died.  So far, he is the only general to have a public funeral (in St Petersburg).  

The Problem With All This Black Sea Sinking of the Moskva

 First, it started out that something happened, and the ship was limping back to port.

Then, it came up that it was taking on water, and needed a tug to help.

Then, it came that some explosives onboard blew up because some guy was smoking.

Then, it came up that the ship 'flipped' on the side, and sunk within minutes....taking most of the 550-odd members to their death.

Then, it came up that some Ukrainian vessel (we are never told what type so it might be even a fishing boat) had some anti-ship SSM that launched from 20-odd miles away....to hit the Moskva.

Then, it came up that the Captain did die with the ship vessel sinking.

Then, it came up that most of the members of the ship jumped off and were saved.

Then, the Russian media came up and got all  hyped-up that the evil Ukrainians sunk their boat.

Then, some video appeared with some admiral giving the surviving members medals....with the group all dressed in dress uniforms and in an undated video.

At any moment now....I expect the Russians to say that the missile was not Ukrainian-made....but developed by the evil Germans.....that defensive measures were taken prior to the hit with the captain hitting the 'on' button several times but the button seemed to fail....finally that Russian trained-dolphins rescued the entire crew when they fell into the water. 

War is serious business, but the Russians take this to a whole new level.  

What I See After Finland/Sweden Join NATO

 Paperwork submission?  By the end of June....it's done, and I would suggest a period of no more than 72 hours for NATO to approve their paperwork.

For the rest of 2022?  I would suggest three things:

1.  Before the end of 2022....some major exercise will be conducted with the US, and probably three members of NATO (Germany probably will be a player) on Sweden/Finland territory.  It'll be more of a demo than a true exercise....that the US could bring in something like two fighter wings, and five-thousand troops in a five-day period.  Use of Alaska-based folks who are trained and used to harsh environments?  More than likely.  

2.  Some Russian naval 'show' will occur,  If you figure numbers....it'll be fewer than eight.  Some type of landing 'show' will be conducted on Kaliningrad, but it'll be fewer than 2,000 that land on the beach.  For Russian naval commanders?  It's a lot of pressure to hope your vessel doesn't have a engine failure, or some weird explosive event.  

3.  Some Russian espionage ring will be busted in Finland/Sweden, with forty-odd characters arrested (some are citizens, some are non-citizens).  The amount of propaganda on regular Swedes and Finns will go up in a dramatic sense after this event....with people asking who is to be trusted.

If none of this Ukraine business was going on....then none of this drastic change in Sweden/Finland would occur.

In a Decade?

 About a week ago, I noticed a commentary on social media in Germany that talked to the idea of what Russia will be like in 2032 (a decade in the future).  It's been on my mind for the past week.  I tend to see eight things:

1.  Western banking to exist in some way within Russia in 2032?  No.  I think as Russia fails on its bond payments (trying to pay in Rubles)....the banks will send a unified message....they simply won't conduct business with Russia.  Maybe the Chinese banks will....but I doubt that this really helps matters in the long run.

2.  By the end of 2022....I would suspect near 400,000 Russians (the IT crowd, the science crowd, the Oligarch people with money still existing, the engineer crowd) will have left.  Contact will exist with the ones who remained, and the trend for 2023 ought to be in the same number.  If you had the non-college crowd in the mix....it wouldn't matter.  But with the brightest  mostly taking the bulk of this.....it's a problem for the professions that you really need.  By 2032, it wouldn't shock me if around two-percent of the total population exited.

3.  Russia military merchandise crapping out?  If you had a brand, and demonstrations showed it to be crappy.....how would you market it?

4.  I think Bitcoin will be more popular in Russia by 2032, than the Ruble itself.

5.  At some point, some Ukrainian 'revenge' matter will come up....where some apartment building in Moscow will be blown up, or some natural gas pipeline blown....leading to more war enthusiasm on the part of Russians.  But after a while, some Russians will believe the 'revenge' matter is just Kremlin-tricks.  

6.  A great portion of Russian society will dissolve away their beliefs or trust in the 'news'.....giving up and refusing to believe much of anything other than sports scores.

7.  At some point (I expect by 2024)....some classified Kremlin document will appear in social media to suggest that 50,000 men just disappeared in the war period.  On paper, they existed....but when the war ceased...no one seemed to know anything about the guys.  There will be countless investigations by family members which will lead nowhere.

8.  Oil and natural gas flow to Europe will crap out by the end of 2022, and this crazy idea of the China connection working?  Where's the extra pipes?  You are looking at five to eight years....where a massive China-Russia pipeline has to be envisioned and put into place.  Without the Euro income, and trying to survive this period of 'waiting'?  It's not a practical matter.

Natural Gas Crisis Affecting Summer Fun?

 Well....HR (our Hessen public TV network) brought this up.

So, in most German outdoor pools....there is a mechanism to 'heat' the waters to some degree (run with natural gas).  So they'd be able to open the pools a month earlier than normal.

Expected water temperatures?  Some are saying 21 to 24 C will be the goal.  Not exactly cold, but not exactly warm either.

All of this leading to alternate methods in the future?  That's the idea....with solar panels being procured and installed.

War Chatter: 17 Apr 2022

 1.  EU discussion on oil embargo for Russia? Moving forward, as reported by N-TV this morning.  If you look over the whole of the EU....at the beginning of 2022....around one-quarter of the oil imports came from Russia.  I personally have my doubts that the embargo talks will go far....unless you suddenly had an Iranian presence at the table....with them selling tons of oil.  

2.  I noticed via Tagesspiegel am Sonntag....a interview with a noted Bulgarian political scientist (Ivan Krastev).  In blunt language.....he sees no change in leadership for Russia.  There's no coup coming up this year or internal revolt.  

I'd agree....unless food shortages showed up and there's just not that element in play.

3.  This social media news story that doesn't go away?  The story goes that Russian riot police...on more than one occasion....have refused orders to deploy into Ukraine as a 'unit'.

BS-factor?  I'd give it a '8'.  It has been picked up by various UK news outlets....I've yet to see it in the German new sector.  

4.  Odds of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania's Prime Minister Manuela Schwesig (SPD) resigning?  

Well...this gets interesting.  The state election in this German state was eight months ago, and Schwesig's effort carried the party to a 'win'.  In recent weeks?  It's been brought up over and over....how supportive she was with Russia over the past decade.

There are a number of SPD folks who fall into this category (the Ostpolitik crowd) and it's hard to predict where this goes.  If she were to resign....the SPD remains in power and an internal party mechanism would resolve the leadership crisis for the state.

5.  There's still more chatter going on for a speed limit 'change' (temp-deal) within Germany.  Poll suggests around 57-percent of Germans now believe it's a good idea....at least for a period of time (no one says what this period should be).  Around 33-percent of Germans say 'NO'.

The Green Party is pushing hard on this discussion...with the FDP generally opposing a change for the time being.

There's supposed to be a temp gas drop for June/July/August.  My prediction is that a speed limit situation will occur for the autobahns....as the full tax comes back in September.....if the war continues.  

The chatter right now?  130 kilometers per hour on the autobahns.....90 kilometers per hour on secondary roads, and 30 kilometers per hour in cities.  If you drive within Mainz these days.....the full city is now a 30-zone. 

Food Chat

 At some point around 2008/2009......you could walk into a German street situation with a Turkish shop....buying a doner sandwich or doner plate....for about 2.50 to 2.90 Euro (meaning the doner, and pommes/fries).

In the past month, I've had a doner twice.  The one local guy has his now priced at 6.90 Euro, and the guy in central Wiesbaden has it priced at 7.50.  

Unless you find a special running....a McDonalds Big Mac menu runs around 10.50 Euro now.

Fast food becoming a questionable choice?  I would suggest that.  

The War: 16 April 2022

 1.  Civey (polling group) went out and asked Germans....would you go without Russian natural gas.  Response was in western Germany.....64-percent said dump the Russian natural gas.  In eastern Germany.....42-percent.  Survey also suggests the willing nature to down down heating temperatures in houses....very much popular in western regions....not so much in eastern regions.  

Note: yeah, there is a fair amount of German population which is ethnic-Russian in the eastern region.  

2.  Habeck (Green Party, and vice-Chancellor) came out and said it wasn't smart to use Easter marches to push for peace-agenda....if Putin wasn't willing to halt his aggressive policies. 

3.  Fracking in Germany?  Absolute no....Habeck restated the German policy this week.

4.  Retired BND (German version of CIA) chief says more Russian espionage is likely in the future.

5.  Ukraine filling out the EU membership paperwork?  Yes.  Based on various news outlets....I'd say that the EU in the next days will receive the paperwork, and 'bless' it within a week.  It'll just infuriate Putin more....my best guess.

Is Putin a Cult Now?

 I was reading a social media piece and some came up to suggest that events over the past decade....led them to believe or see Putin....as a cult....than an actual person. It was a curious thing to suggest and I've sat for the past week contemplating this idea.

For a cult-like person to exist....you need some basic things to exist: (1) control of the news media, (2) a controlled economy, and (3) a popular belief by the public that this 'person' is like a Jesus-figure (perfect in every detail).

I don't think the original 'design' (bringing Putin onto the job) reflected this type of strategy.  As each year went by.....Putin himself probably signed up for more orchestrated pictures....more PR effort, and more confidence measures.

If you asked the general public over this theme?  I would go and suggest that almost fifty-percent of the public have quit national TV, and gone to mostly internet news (non-Kremlin controlled of course).  Some might even suggest they haven't heard Putin's name mentioned in a year or two, but it's solely because of their news sources.

But I also think that a number of Kremlin insiders (even the FSB themselves) are now worried over the cult that they've created....realizing that it's beyond their control.

Is there any way to derail the cult?  No.  It's reached the stage where the cult has absolute control.  

Yeah, About That German LNG Terminal Business

 This past week in Germany.....it came out (Via ARD news) that the government will fund to around 2.5-billion Euro....four floating LNG terminals....'to save the country from the Russians cutting off the current flow'.

These 'ships' will be set into some harbor area, to which a LNG tanker would float up....hook the hoses, and dump their liquid natural gas.

Now...is it a purchase?  No....it's a rental deal for one year for the four.

Where the LNG ships are expected to come from....once the terminals are in place?  Qatar and the US.

Hyping up the environmentalists?  Absolutely.  But they don't have a plan 'B' for society to survive if the Russians slow the flow down.  

The permanent dock?  Chatter suggests they won't be operational until you get to the end of 2024.  So this 2.5-billion Euro deal might come around a second, and possibly a third time?  Yeah....although no one is suggesting that in public.

Remember as well....this 2.5-billion Euro ONLY pays for the floating terminal....not the LNG itself.  

Realistic view of how much they can trim back off the Russians? There are various estimates for the end of 2022.  Currently, the Russian input is near 50-percent.  Most of the estimates say that cutting about one-third of that by early 2023 is probably the only thing you should anticipate.  

Russians standing still?  Well....no.  They have talks going on with India and China.  The problem is that they don't have 'funnels' to bring the product easily to the 'front-door' (yet).  

The 100,000 Rumor

 N24 (German commercial news) came on this morning and said that around 100k Russian IT technicians packed up and left Russia in the past thirty days.  BS-factor?  Well....maybe '5'....you can't tell.  Certainly the Russians can't prove it....neither can the journalists....nor the CIA.

Here's the thing about it....if this were the 'crème' of the IT crop for the Russian industry...then yeah, it's a problem.

If this were only the beginning stage, and another 100,000 left by end of May?  Yeah, that would be a problem as well.

Commerce across the globe....runs off IT today, and Russia is no different.  What you'd start to notice by mid-summer....various platforms would be marginally operating.....banking software would have daily glitches or down-time.....telephone and internet-mail services would be up and down on a daily basis.

Putin and his Kremlin crew even able to grasp this?  I doubt it.  There's probably commerce and business concerns talking about this in Moscow, but the idea that the upper levels of the government getting hyped-up?  Why?  

On the other side of this...if this were true?  Well....a ton of qualified IT professionals are on the open-market, and probably shuttling their resumes around for better jobs in Europe, and the Americas.  An offer of residency....some decent starting pay, and some landscape with safe lives?  It might be enough to satisfy the vast number.

Q-and-A: 15 Apr 2022

 1.  Germans flipping this crisis period into a government-directed energy savings discussion?

Well....yeah.  The Vice-Chancellor/Economics Minister (Robert Habeck, Green Party) went to hyping up an agenda yesterday.  This goes with the chatter of the natural gas situation and the Ukraine war.

He says that Germans ought to be seeking ways to save energy.....thus being less attached to Russian oil/natural gas.

Will this lead to road speeds for the autobahns?  More than likely.  I tend to view some 120/130 kph limit coming by mid-summer, and probably even a 90 kph limit for state roads (where it's 100 kph currently).  It'll be worked as a temp measure for one year in my humble opinion.

2.  The Moskva (their key ship in the Black Sea) did finally sink from the explosion business yesterday.  The initial damage didn't really sink it.  Based on reports.....they'd called up for a tug or two....to haul the vessel to port.  In the midst of this operation...balance of the vessel was 'lost', and it simply sank.  I spent 10 minutes looking around for video of the situation....so far....none.  

A big deal?  Whatever remains of the fleet in this area....is probably going to pull back further from the coastal area....in fear.

3.  These intimidation threats against Sweden and Finland on the idea of joining NATO?

What you tend to see is juvenile-like chatter from the upper levels of the Kremlin, and simply solidifying the belief for Sweden and Finland.  Paperwork drill is the only thing left and I think the submission will be done by early June.  In the old days....there might have been six months of approval-process....currently, I think NATO has the 'rubber-stamp' for approval already done, and it'll take less than 24 hours to approve their paperwork.  Afterwards, the Finns will break out the vodka, and everyone will have a shot, or two, or three.

Kidnapping Lauterbach?

 Weirdest story of the year for Germany.

Some plot was uncovered.....a dozen Germans (all over 40)....hatching a plot to kidnap the Health Minister (Lauterbach).

Once this came online....to suggest the next phase....cops were 'watching' and offered up two machine guns and five pistols.  Deal was made, and then arrests were made.

All the anti-Covid crowd?  Yep.

N-TV has the basic story....worth a read.

Charges?  No one says much but I would take a guess....each will get a minimum of five years in a fed prison.....just over their Covid feelings.

New Federal Minister

 Green Party announced this afternoon the new Federal Minister for Family Affairs....Lisa Paus.  

Her background?  Financial person....budget-builder.    But no really cares....she fills the slot that had half of the party freaked out.  

Ukraine's Claim Over Tanks Destroyed?

 This morning, the Ukrainians claimed that 753 tanks have been destroyed.  BS-factor?  Well....I'd give a '5'....you just can't be sure.

I originally thought they meant like tanks and APCs in one category....but no, APCs are in a separate category (1,968 total destroyed on that claim).

Dead troops for Russia?  That claim goes to around 19,900.  

So here's my problem here.....lets assume that this is 50-percent accurate (I'm willing to go that far). 

But to say that and then say the lost planes/helicopters and boats gone as well?  That's a serious loss.

If the report were 90-percent accurate?  You'd start to see this as a Iraq repeat....where they lost so much equipment....they were not in a position to ever fight a legit war again.

You put the Kremlin crew in a tough position.  They need to replace 600-plus tanks....with an economy that is dismal to start with but seriously screwed now because of sanctions.  The 19,000 lost men?  That doesn't include wounded or those captured.

I'm more likely to believe that this is a bit bogus, but it just might be about two-thirds of the true losses, and that's serious in admitting.  

Russia Chatter

 Early in the AM today....major threat issued by Russia to Finland/Sweden....that Russia could escalate this 'join-NATO' business to a nuke stage.

Stupid threat to make, and it only damages the perception of the two countries over Russia.  

The 150-odd Russian Agent Story

 This week....Putin apparently fired around 150-odd FSB (former KGB) staff folks.  All out of one single division.

Some were simply fired....some were arrested, and at least 20 had their homes raided.

What's going on?  Well....Putin has reached the level where he questions everything he's told.  Fear existing for twenty years.....to only tell Putin what he wants to hear?  Yeah....in a simple way....the 150-odd FSB folks prepared the Ukraine special military operation to be a failure...to make Putin 'happy'.

What do you do as a 35-year-old FSB agent who has been fired?  Well....there's just not much to be gained with that type of resume.

Added to your woes....if your home was raided....they are probably looking at your personal wealth (that boat....that BMW you bought two years ago....the wife's fake boob surgery...etc).

My humble belief?  Those guys who weren't arrested?  I'd have the bags packed and drive toward some border to exit the country.  I'd go to France, Germany, the UK or US....to offer my expertise/knowledge.

But here's the odd thing.....you basically have to go into this division and rebuild it from scratch.  Would you even submit your resume for the job?  If you were ordered to work in the division....would you accept or immediately look for some path out of Russia?

From a manpower prospective....Putin has created a massive toxic element for this one single FSB division.  They have to make him happy, and in doing so....create a serious future problem to brew.  

It's kind of funny now.....just about everything that Putin has touched.....has a serious problem going on now.  

RTL TV Show: The Passion

 Last night, RTL (commercial German TV network) ran a live production musical....called 'The Passion'.

Yes, the Jesus-story....live....musical.  

First, I would say it's remarkable that they had the guts/courage to run this 90-minute piece in a live-format.  As far as I could see....nothing failed.

Location?  Essen.....central party of the city.  

Lot of celebrates?  Oh, I would guess at least fifty-odd folks were in the background.

Music used?  Mostly all German/Austrian pop songs from the past twenty years.

More of an experiment?  I would suggest that it's one of the weirdest ideas to come up with.....doing this in some central area of a city, and running the whole thing live.  There had to be at least thirty different cameras involved.  

Opening a door for future attempts?  Maybe.