Thursday, April 7, 2022

Q-and-A: 7 Apr 2022

 1.  Speculation over a Putin take-down?

N-24 had a segment this morning, from Russian oppositionists....suggesting that elements of the inner circle are plotting some coup against Putin.  BS-factor?  I'd give it a  '7'.  But here's the thing.....Putin's FSB folks will see this...get hyped up and then do a review of the top twenty insiders to Putin and probably arrest detain five or six.  It'll worry the remaining folks and probably trigger either exit-plans or coup-plans.

2.  'Virtual' bankruptcy hanging over Russia?

I've probably heard this phrase at least ten times over the past 24 hours via various business news segments.  The blunt truth?  They've got tons of Rubles and can live healthy off the Ruble environment....if they need any service or product beyond that (meaning Euro or dollars)....then they are screwed.  I'd have to invent a new term to use....instead of virtual bankruptcy.

3.  Lot of chatter over Iran in recent days?

Well....yeah.  If this peace treaty is worked out, and things were stable....Iran has tons of natural gas.  Now, how they'd get the gas to Germany as a potential customer....is unknown.  

4.  Military analysts now suggesting this 'war' could go for years?

Yesterday, I probably saw six different interviews where the plural use of 'years' was exercised.

The only way this is possible is that western nations continue to supply the Ukraine with weapons, and food.....with Putin's Kremlin being stupid enough to continue the fight for 'prestige'.  It would drain the Russian military down to the level of Romania and create a fear landscape for young Russian males to enter conscription in the spring of 2023.

5.  Oligarch folks calling old friends for loans?

Well....there is story brewing up over Abramovich....that he's been calling non-Russian friends, and asking for personal loans to tide him over during these difficult times.

No one says much if he gets the loans.  I would imagine some seeing a reason to help the guy out with a million-dollar loan.  The curious thing to ask.....just how much is he spending per day?  Is he still on the $100k per day spending habit?  

6.  Are the German states fiddling around with the public TV (ARD/ZDF) budget?

It gets pretty interesting.  For over twenty years, the general public and states have pushed ARD/ZDF to lessen their budget situation (trim the TV/Media tax), and ARD/ZDF have gently pushed back (refusing).

So Bavaria has a new agenda...pushing for less entertainment, and for more control over sports spending.  

There is probably a day of reckoning coming for German public TV (certainly not in 2022 or 2023)....where ARD and ZDF are forced to merge into one single network....casting thousands of employees into the 'bitter' world of commercial TV.  Personally, I don't think it'd take much for ZDF to be rebuilt as a commercial network and end their public-TV situation.  

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