I'm probably one of the few people around who believes that Russia's Putin is on a time schedule. He has to deliver some type of victory (even a fake victory) within six months of the 300,000 reservists being put on duty (Starting in September). Otherwise? He'll have to ask for a second deployment for the 300,000 (minus ever how many who are either dead or wounded).
I don't think he has multiple shots at this....it's one single reservist-shot.
An attached problem? We sit here on the 11th of November today, and somewhere in about six to eight weeks....if a peace deal hasn't been worked out....I think a half-million men will realize the second potential activation, and start looking for a exit-door out of Russia.
While all of this is going on....I think various members of the Duma and a number of the Oligarch folks are looking at the flip side of no-victory/no-treaty, and noticing the economic downturn since September.
Odds of a tactical nuke demonstration? I think Putin has to accomplish one, and hope that this frightens the Ukraine government enough to conclude some kind of end to the war.
I noticed off social media this morning....some folks in Moscow observed an inspection team checking out a city-bunker. They'd never seen this bunker opened-up.....so it was a bit odd. The odds of the place in disarray, loaded with mold/mildew? The odds of the place being non-functional? The odds that the food packages are 20 years beyond their expiration date?
Putin has around two months to fumble around and get something out of this whole war....otherwise, I think the exit-door opens and the country faces a bigger problem by early spring.
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