Someone brought up this little problem in the news yesterday....in that when you mobilize these guys (in such a high number)....you are removing their man-hours (figure around 2.4-million man-hours per day) from the Russian commercial world. Just four lousy days of service denies the country's business operations around 10-million man-hours.
An example? If you ran a massive dairy farm on the outskirts of Moscow with eight employees, and three were mobilized....then you as the boss are having to go beg the remaining five guys to put in an extra five to ten hours a week....to accomplish the normal work-load. This might work for a month....but demanding this for six months (the anticipated end-point)?
The mobilized crowd getting paid the same level as when they were normal workers? Most everyone agrees thats not happening, and there's a fair amount of disenchantment existing.
On this day in September when Putin said mobilization would occur....it's just odd that the very next day.....letters started arriving at homes and mail-boxes. If you look at this 'speed'....there's no doubt that the planning for this started a minimum of 30 days prior, and I might go and suggest that Putin's team already had this on their 'to-do' list back in July.
My general belief? If you went to the commerce world of Russia and asked for production numbers right now....they no longer can produce at the same level as they did back in the summer.
Added to this burden.....since day one, it's believed that around one-million young men (and some women) have exited the country. Both at the college level and commerce level....they are no longer part of the present work-force, or future work-force.
Then I come to this tragic sequence of the 300,000. Based on past performance, and the suggestion that bullets/rifles are in short supply.....I would go and suggest that 10-percent (30,000) of this reservist group will not return alive, or in mental/physical shape to accomplish their old job.
The human impact? Up until September....the vast majority of Russians didn't really see themselves attached to the war. Conscripts were there.....but this was in limited numbers (say 120,000). Since September? I would imagine that one out of every three Russians know someone (co-worker, relative, neighbor) that has been activated for the war.
So, here's the landscape to worry about. What if we reach February (five months of active duty), and you (the reservist) figure you have 30 days left before they have to ship you home.....will there be decree number two? Number two? To extend you another six months, and to fill 70,000 empty spots (dead/wounded). Added to this....the new conscripts are supposed to be notified in January of their duty obligation (that's around 100,000 to 150,000 of young 18-year olds).
What happens then? If I were a manager and had been pleading for employees to put in an extra 10-to-15 man-hours a week because of the shortfall of employees.....will it get to a impossible work-operation?
The circle of people around Putin? The Oligarch folks? I don't think they are into economic trends or planning for commerce requirements. They buy into Putin's argument, without discussing consequences. The Duma people? I think they are quietly discussing how 2023 will work, and if stability is crumbling.
No comments:
Post a Comment