If you follow the recent polling data of Forsa (a reliable polling organization), the numbers look like this for the Bavaria election right now:
CSU: 42-percent
SPD: 14-percent
AfD: 10-percent
Linke Party: 3-percent
Greens: 14-percent
FDP: 6-percent
The Free Voter Party: 7-percent
If the trend holds? The Linke folks won't make enough to be in the state legislature. The CSU would likely need a minor partner (maybe the Free Voter Party or FDP) to wrap up a majority.
The SPD folks? Back two years ago, they were pulling around 20-percent. They've lost some points over the past year and I kinda doubt that they will return in the state of Bavaria. The Greens likely pick up every single disenchanted SPD voter.
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