If you follow the recent polling data of Forsa (a reliable polling organization), the numbers look like this for the Bavaria election right now:
Linke Party: 3-percent
The Free Voter Party: 7-percent
If the trend holds? The Linke folks won't make enough to be in the state legislature. The CSU would likely need a minor partner (maybe the Free Voter Party or FDP) to wrap up a majority.
The SPD folks? Back two years ago, they were pulling around 20-percent. They've lost some points over the past year and I kinda doubt that they will return in the state of Bavaria. The Greens likely pick up every single disenchanted SPD voter.