Toward Monday, we will find out if the SPD Party members voted in favor of the coalition deal with the CDU and Chancellor Merkel.
There are roughly 460,000 votes in this episode, and what people would normally expect is that three-quarters of them would approve the coalition deal.
In this case....the youth-wing of the SPD Party (the Jusos group) are led by a guy by the name of Kevin Kuehnert. Kevin is 28 years old. He's clever, and fairly blunt. Over the past month, he's traveled all over Germany and given his response to the CDU-SPD agreement idea....it's not what the SPD is about. He wants them to return to the image that existed from about twenty years ago....being supportive of the middle-class and the working-class German.
If the vote goes no? Well....you owe about three-quarters of the blame or reason for this failure to pass....upon Kevin (my humble opinion). He talked most folks into saying no. The other quarter? You can probably lay upon Chancellor Merkel and the frustration that the public has right now with her and the direction of the country.
For journalists? I think if this goes to a 'no'....they will be shocked at how Kevin went and convinced so many people of taking a position. If you watch public TV (ARD, ZDF)....you'd say they've done everything possible to suggest the coalition deal is 'ok'.
My expectation? I think it'll pass by a bare margin....something like 52-percent. If there is a 60-percent 'no' vote? I'd suggest the whole top ten leaders of the party ought to resign and the door ought to open for Kevin to move up into the role of number one or number two within the party.