Seehofer Comments

I noticed this morning via N-TV (German commercial TV news)....that the new German Federal Interior Minister....Horst Seehofer....got into the news.

He made a comment or two via BILD (the national German newspaper) over one of his first acts as the new head of the Interior Ministry.....to develop a "master plan for faster asylum procedures and more consistent deportations".

Over the last couple of years, there have been efforts to run the deportation business as a national program.  The reality is...currently, it's a state-by-state (16 total states in Germany) program.  If you come up and fail on integration or do some stupid things....it really depends on the state you live and how quick they make the process.

Nationwide, I would suggest that roughly two-thirds of the German public simply shake their head over how the deportations are run, and the delay process.  A bulk of the public want some federal process, and maybe one or two deportation centers to be run.  The general idea talked about in public is that if you fail....some government guy is standing there and you pack up your bags to report to the deportation center.  There, you'd be in some waiting game to ensure your old country would take you back.

The fact that most countries aren't interested in taking their folks back...particularly if there was a criminal record attached to the guy?  This gets brought up and the question is then asked how long this waiting process might take.  Years?  Once you suggest that....the pro-asylum crowd get hyper because you can't force some guy into a two or three year compound-lifestyle. 

Seehofer went on to talk about "zero tolerance of offenders".   This is another trend with German society, in noting that a fair number of the drug sales crowd today in Germany....are migrants. 

What'll happen with Seehofer and his aggressive view on the deportation business?  To be honest, both the CDU and SPD are looking for a new solution to regain public trust and votes.  Two state elections are slated for this year (Hessen and Bavaria).  In both cases, they need to show some movement and changes, or the AfD picks up more votes.

Anger by the Linke Party and Greens?  More than likely....yes.  Both have shown a open view of stalling deportations. 

In 2017, there were roughly 22,000 individuals deported out of Germany.  At the end of 2017....the German authorities admitted in public statements that there are around 550,000 individuals in Germany on failed visa applications.  The vast majority (probably nearing 99-percent) are involved in an appeals process and dragging this via the German court system (it was never designed to handle cases like this and in this high of a number).

Part of Seehofer's problem will be the failed visa applications and the appeals process.  Some Germans believe the only way to fix this appeals process is to create a special court system that only hears immigration appeals, and that there are only limited ways to enter your appeal on the failed visa application.  But to create this specialized court?  Germans aren't known for speed on issues like this, and it could take two years to draft up the operational method, hire the folks, and get this up and running.

Even if the appeals problem was fixed.....then you come to the curious problem of getting the old country to accept the individual back.  Most of the time, when you hear about these episodes of the 550,000....they don't relate to Iraq or Syrian folks.  They relate more to North African folks who came in on the big 2014-2016 smuggler 'wave'. 

Where all this goes?  Frankly, Seehofer has an enormous task and I doubt if you see more than 40,000 folks deported in 2018.