A Little Bit of History Today

Someone in Germany wrote a piece that talked over 1976 German situation where the CSU at that time....talked over a serious attempt to walk out of the relationship with the CDU.  At the time, Helmet Kohl was the Interior Minister of Germany, and a big-name player in events to come in the 1980s with the CDU.

Kohl.....did something fairly unique in 1976 politics.  He told the CSU....that they (the CDU) would stage an attempt to put the CDU into the Bavarian election, and it would likely put them (the CSU) into a vote-loss situation.  Over a short period of time, the CSU reviewed the Kohl theat and backed-off.

The message in this short history piece is that the CDU could again threaten to get into Bavarian politics if the CSU tries to end the relationship.

I sat and pondered over that history.

There are three elements which don't match up well in this piece of history.

First, Chancellor Merkel and the next level of CDU 'princes'....aren't Helmet Kohl type political figures.  Most of them....can't even stand in his shadow.

Second, in the 1976 era, the CSU didn't really have a topic to drive the wedge....unlike today where coalition government migration and immigration policy is unanchored and drifting as national topics.

Third, the CSU of today knows it doesn't need national newspapers or the public TV networks (ARD, ZDF) to bring their message to the public.  They can easily go the Trump way and use social media to avoid journalists.

The journalists in Germany are hyped to convey the message that the CSU walk-out won't occur.  This is all a play-act scene that Seehofer has created to see how far Merkel can be pushed, and if the SPD can be forced on the hand of a new election.

The problem I see with this entire scenario is that everyone from the CDU and SPD....are absolutely against a coalition failure and having to call for a new election.  It would basically create a wave, after wave of unintended consequences for both major parties.

So my view is this....Seehofer saw this as a 'playground' attempt for him to go and slug two bigger kids (Merkel and Nahles), and he found that they had to stand there and take the punches.  He's gone back and slugged them a couple of times, and they really seem to be capable of accepting the punches.  He'll continue this playground 'game', until they slug back.  I might go and question if either are capable of slugging him back.  I might even go and suggest that the CDU and SPD are so marginal in terms of Kohl-like leadership....that Seehofer isn't that worried about the situation.