How the Merkel Spiral Goes

Shortly after the Wall came down (1990 era), members of the EU came up and signed what they'd call the Dublin Convention.  It'd take seven years for it to be effective.  What it basically said for those who signed in Europe....was that when asylum seekers rode into the country (by boat, car, bus, rail, or plane)....whichever was the FIRST country you arrived upon (from the signees)....that was the country that you MUST declare asylum, sign the paperwork, and establish your situation.

Around a decade ago, the third stage or agreement occurred, and it involved your fingerprints being collected and stored.  You as the asylum candidate....HAD to accept fingerprints being kept.

So this great stage of confusion and political turmoil in Germany.....is mostly about the Interior Minister (Seehofer, CSU) saying that Germany will enforce the Dublin Agreement. 

Yes, as a shock....Merkel and crew since 2013.....have laughed over the agreement and said no.....they wouldn't enforce it.  Seehofer said that it'll be the central theme to his handling of immigration.

What happens now?

There's a 10-day period where some folks will try to talk Seehofer into either resigning or coming to some neutral point.

For the pro-asylum crowd in Germany (including some elements of the CDU folks, an awful lot of SPD folks, with the Greens and Linke Party), this is the beginning of the end for their standing on the topic of migration.

My general belief is that the coalition will come to an end around the last week of June, and unless the FDP stands up to the replacement partner (as the Merkel dumps the CSU)....it's done.  Merkel is finished.

An election would be called upon by the first week of July, and would likely occur around early October (after the Hessen and Bavarian state elections).

Massive turmoil would then start up with this timeline:

1.  Trump's tariff deal?  That would end up being a campaign fight.

2.  The reshuffling of Italy's politics to the right?  That would end up being a campaign fight.

3. Turkey and Erdogan.  That would end up being a campaign fight.

4.  How to handle the Dublin Agreement and migration.  That would end up being a campaign fight.

All that soft play from the summer of 2017 for the last election?  Gone.