Cops in my local region (Wiesbaden) came out about two weeks ago....looking for a local (Mainz) young teenager (14 years old). Today, they announced that they found her body here on the Wiesbaden side of the Rhine River. What they've constructed so far is a connection to an immigrant boyfriend (Iraqi young guy, 20 years old). He hasn't been seen in two weeks.
If you go back over the past four years, there's probably been at least a hundred-odd episodes where either an threats, assault or murder have occurred....which typically lead back to a young migrant or immigrant guy.
My German wife tends to comment about a lack of emotional maturity or 'fragile-nature' with the younger migrant guys who've showed up in Germany. Her statement: they can't handle a put-down or a refusal by some new German female 'friend'.
One of the odd factors in this recent migrant period is a lot of young men showed up without the family connection (the father or mother), who would emphasize wise choices, and mature decisions. I think if they had that family structure or reinforced behavior expectations.....you wouldn't have these problems.
The odds that the guy will show up? I'd put the estimate closer to a 10-percent chance. He'll probably grasp his future of staying here, and leave for Iraq, via some neighboring country.
UPDATE: Via a Focus article, cops say that the 20-year old Iraqi guy has left the country with his family in recent days. Odds of him being arrested and brought back? Not that favorable.