1. Is the Russian invasion strategy really based on a 1960s/1970s strategy of tank warfare and no counter-measures (from that era) to halt an advance (other than tank-to-tank fighting)?
In the past ten days, there's been a fair amount of chatter over the Russian strategy, and it really boils down to three key failures:
(1) Russia advances with tanks/APCs required a fair amount of fuel tankers and successful convoy efforts to keep the front moving. Ukraine prioritized targeting on the convoys/fuel efforts, and the value of armor plummeted.
(2) It would appear that 'hit-and-scoot' efforts by the Ukrainians put the Russians at a disadvantage. Some suggest that US Green Beret/Seal visits in the past year or two....gave them this strategy. The problem here....to get anything out of this invasion....either you go in a massive way (utter destruction everywhere), or you just accept a marginalized victory and claim two districts as your 'prize' (to walk away).
(3) The top guys (both at FSB and Kremlin) really did a crappy job in pondering over this and developing a strategy. It's hard to imagine they'd screw this up so badly, but then.....no one wants to tell Putin that he's got a badly designed thought-process.
2. If this just ends, with two districts going to Russia.....can NATO just stand down?
I've probably watched two-dozen discussions over this....with either US or European analysts/historians pondering the matter. Virtually no one says a stand down can occur in 2022.
I'd even go and suggest that there's just a lot of disbelief over how far this has gone....the amount of destruction on Ukrainian soil, and the escapee nature of the Kremlin crowd to some nuke bunker in Siberia.
For Russia, the added pain is that virtually all of the European members of NATO....plus those Swedes and Finns....are talking about a upgrade on weapons now. In some ways....with the sanctions in place and talk of decreasing oil/natural gas dependency.....Russia is in a hurtful position of rebuilding a Army that they can't afford.
Standing down probably won't occur, and it'll just bother the Kremlin elite even more as the months go by. You'd have to have a whole new top-level crew in charge of Russia to rebuild confidence for Europe, and that's just not going to happen.
3. Will the continuing sanctions business demoralize Russia in the end?
At the point where Europe figures out ways to avoid buying Russian oil/natural gas (probably in 2023/2024).....the economy of Russia will start to suffer in significant ways. They have the agricultural ability to keep feeding people, and they can continue to just print Rubles. But beyond that....if you were a Oligarch guy or a engineer who made real money (you had a Volvo, went on trips to Greece, and could afford $150 Nike shoes)....you are now screwed.
China steeping to fill the empty role as a customer? Maybe, but they probably don't want to engage in Rubles, and there's no pipe to turn the new output over to them.
No one is going to pay for 25,000 Rubles for a Russian-made pair of Ivanov tennis shoes. No one wants to pay 700 Rubles for a crappy fake Mc-Ivanov hamburger happy meal. No one wants to pay 50,000 Rubles for a fake fashion trend jacket out of Pskov....where the Kremlin suggests it's the new 'Paris-trend'.
Maybe they won't be anti-Putin, but by the end of 2023....there's going to be a lot of jokes and humor directed at daily lifestyles....which people start to suggest maybe North Korea is better off than Russia. It's a joke, but it's a sad joke.
4. Isn't a lot of this current strategy....to break German support of NATO?
One can argue (successfully) that a lot of effort started in the 1970s, and went through the past fifty years....to get Germany thoroughly attached to Russia (dependence on oil, coal and natural gas).
At every turn where the US tried to suggest a logical argument that you are making a bad position for future generations....the German news media defended the positions taken by the politicians. It's not a recent thing.
So this decades long strategy has held fairly strong within the Kremlin crew. There was never a review to ask questions or reassess the amount of 'pain' if Germany ever dropped the oil/coal/natural gas deals. It was rather one-sided....if you think about it.
I would imagine today....various FSB analyst (the old KGB) have the files, and data to paint a pretty lousy economic picture. But they can't tell their Kremlin bosses this, or Putin. So they will continue to hype the 'Germany-is-hurting' script, until someone from the FSB is fired for incompetence.
As for the Germans? They aren't stupid. They will invent various methods to get natural gas/oil/coal from other countries. It won't be cheap, and it may require two years before the full effect occurs. But somewhere along 2024....Russia will only be a 20-percent player instead of a 50-percent player....on natural gas sales to Germany. I would even suggest that Iran may figure out the inside part of this deal, and finally recover from their economic fall of the past thirty years.
5. Will Sweden and Finland join NATO?
In Finland's case....I'd say the paperwork is prepared and there's going to be some move done within 90 days. Sweden is less likely. It'll likely be the last political move of the Fin government before they break for summer vacation.
Russia interpreting this? They have to be kicking themselves....things were concreted down, and neither was supposed to go and do something like this. The perception of the military operation? That ruined the whole neutral view of both countries.
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