Four observations:
1. After four weeks of intense but imaginary success (at least in the northern front)....I think the generals needed some brief period of rest and regrouping. Also, within this situation....some commanders are arriving back at the Russia site with less men, less vehicles, and less tanks than they started with or reported 'lost'.
Yes, an accounting is likely taking place, with the generals now realizing that there's more losses than have been reported.
Some of the more incompetent or lackadaisical field commanders are going to be probably sacked.
How they explain this to Putin and the marginal Kremlin leadership around him? Anyone's guess.
2. I believe the Russian strategy in three weeks will shift, and most assets will be put to the east of Ukraine....just to take the eastern one-quarter of the Ukraine....avoiding Kiev, and just be happy controlling a small portion of Ukraine at the end of May.
3. Will troops be willing to re-engage and stage entry number two, after a week of rest? No. I don't buy that, and I think it'll be difficult to get to assemble for this new operation. This is why I think new conscripts....being grabbed now and put through a short training episode.....will be taken to the new assembly area (avoiding contact with the conscripts who've seen serious duty over the past month).
4. I think you will see more intense bombing over Kiev with forty-plus sorties per day....just to destroy the town (not take it). But I also think the Stinger missiles will be useful and dozens of Russian fighters will be shot down with the new strategy.
The problem of bunker-mentality affecting Putin and his Kremlin team? I would start to wonder how they are handling the pressure, and if the stress is affecting the mental side.
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