My Gut Feeling Over the Nord Stream I/II Pipelines Blown

 First, there is no factual evidence tying anyone to it.  Yeah, the Swedes and Danes did see Russian freighters and naval vessels around (including subs), but not enough to pin it on anyone in court.

Second, it would worry me if this was 'signed-off' by Putin himself.....seeing how things are going.  I'm more likely to believe some circle of associates in the Kremlin went to this as a plan 'B'.  

Third, this could be a 'game' by the outer most group of Oligarch folks against the inner-most group of Oligarch folks....thus not involving Putin at all.

Fourth, there won't be any more Russia-Germany deals for the foreseeable future (future minimum of a decade).

Finally, some folks in Germany think that the real target today of Russia.....is not the Ukraine....it's twisted around and is in all probability Germany.  I've heard this discussion a time or two this week, and would at least consider it a valid discussion. 

Three German News Stories

 1.  If you follow the German stock market (the DAX), you will notice a 25-percent loss since 1 January, with things taking firm root in the past six weeks.

2.  The German food industry is in a fairly negative trend, because of a shortage of nitrogen.  Yes, bread, various foods, and even beer.....are now affected by the shortage.

3. Some German news story indicates that a massive removal of troops from Europe and Russia borders....with Russian pulling back around 25,000 troops (sending to the Ukraine I would assume).  Probably the lowest number since the 1930s on the borders.

This German Energy 'Brake'

 So, most of the details were laid out yesterday over the electrical and natural gas 'brake'.  The German government will borrow around 200-billion Euro to cover the extra cost of energy on society.  Yeah, it's a lot of money.

Things they didn't say?  Well.....where the brake starts.  My humble belief is that whatever your bill was for last year....they probably will say that 150-percent of that bill is acceptable, and they will cover remainder (be it 200, 300 or 400 percent).

How soon this can be put into effect?  That's also missing.  One government guy said you would see effects within 30 days.....but I think he's mostly talking about the paperwork that you'd have to fill out.  

Germans not realizing that this is covered by taxation?  I get the impression that half of the country will not grasp this part of the brake.

The round-number oddity?  Yeah....200-billion is awful 'round'.  It's possible to wake up in February and realize another 35-billion has to be added.

So to the final issue....will things correct themselves in 2023?  No one discusses this part of the issue. My gut feeling is that by October 2023....another 200 billion Euro loan will be required, and massive taxation has to start up....to cover this loan.

Covid, Again

 Last Friday, the wife came home and hinted her associate at work had possible Covid.  Saturday, it was confirmed.   Sunday, she started symptoms....which applied the cheapo 1.79 Euro Chinese-made test, which said she was negative.

Serious symptoms by Wednesday and we both went to the village test center (10 Euro each).  By Wednesday night, we were proclaimed positive.

Yeah, it's the second round for both of us.  Roughly 18 months ago was the first episode.

Rates Of Exchange Essay

 In the early part of 1985, I was stationed in West Germany, and the DM - dollar rate hit 3.40.  It meant that you could take $100 and get 340 DMs.....which translated to a fabulous weekend of travel.  

In the year 2000?  A $100 bought you 189 DMs (almost half of the value in 1985).

1984 and 1985 were a great time to be around West Germany.  Over the two year period, I traveled all over the place....cheaply.  

A 72-hour rail-pass?  With the value of the DM.....your cost was around $40 for a whole weekend of travel.

Eating out?  $5 got you a schnitzel plate, with a minimum of two beers.  

After the Euro arrived?  There was probably a year where a dollar got you 1.10 Euro, then the 'fall' started to occur.  In roughly 24 months, a dollar barely bought you .8 Euro.  

In this period of 2002 to 2010?  It was pretty dismal on the exchange rate.  

Recent weeks?  The dollar now buys you in excess of 1.01 Euro.  Edging up to the 1.10 Euro situation?  I think by Christmas, it will occur.

Going past that point?  It's anyone's guess.  I do expect 2023 and 2024 to be fairly crappy years in Germany for the economy, with failed industry and natural gas bills hurting society.  

Five German News Stories

 1.  Off Russia's state-run TV....one of the propagandists spoke up to the idea that Russia would go to Belarus and Kazakhstan, asking for help to locate the young Russian men who left Russia to avoid the draft/activation.  

Odds of this?  In Belarus, they'd get full support, but I don't think that many Russians went there.  In Kazakhstan?  They've moved to a fairly neutral position, and probably won't discuss any help.

2.  Apparently, the CIA gave warnings about two months ago, of a sabotage event for the pipeline....to the German government.   

3.  Two of the German nuke power plants to be kept open until early April 2023?  True, adopted as the government position.

4.  More advancements by the Ukraine against Russian-held territory there?  Yes, since the logistics hub in the front....has been knocked out, and there's no railway line to really get things near the front, I expect serious changes over the next two weeks.

5.  A report from ARD (German public TV) indicates that the Russian activation of reservists has hit a point where they are showing up to pick up a guy who has been dead for a number of years.  

Russians Fleeing?

 The Kazakh government stood up yesterday and said (no doubt or BS factor) that around 98,000 Russians had entered their country in the past week....escaping Russia.  

Georgia?  Well....they only say around 3,600 cars were lined up in the past week to enter their country.  No actual numbers of people given.

Border closures coming?  Some indicators are up there....but figured for this weekend.  I think part of this story....as reservists are activated....a fair portion are there for border control.

Ukrainians adding to the German population?  As of yesterday, the government of Germany announced that they are now over 84-million in population.  

Will the leave-Russia number increase?  I think if I were a 18-year old, and my draft chances in spring of 2023 were pretty high up there.....then I'd be driving to the border region....even Mongolia, to find some border to cross.  The problem is....this puts tremendous pressure on Russia to halt all border-crossings.  

Nord Stream I and II Blown Up?

 Facts at this point?

Both Russia-to-German natural gas pipelines were blown up in the past 36 hours.  Location?  Nord Stream I was blown up around 20 miles NE of the island of Bornholm (Denmark).  Nord Stream II was blown up around 10 mile SE of the island of Bornholm.  Time difference?  Around 15 hours apart.  

Confidence of a bomb?  Danes have undersea monitors and they rate it near a 90-percent level that both were blown up.

Culprits?  It could be any of a dozen folks.  Russian military, Russian Oligarch folks, Chinese, Ukrainians, etc.  Via social media.....some guy even suggested aliens (probably a humor suggestion).

Bombs rigged-up and could have been placed in position a month ago?  That's a possibility as well.  

Nord Stream II having never pumped an ounce of natural gas?  True.  

Nord Stream II having been turned mostly off in the past three weeks by the Russians.....to put pressure on Germany?  True.  

So the big question....a big deal?  Well....based on reserves in place, and a assumption of a mild or regular winter.....there's enough natural gas in Germany to make it through the winter.  Beyond that....there's still gas coming from Norway, and soon via the LNG port being built in Hamburg (starts late December).  

However, this brings up the issue....if they blew up the Nord Stream I and II....wouldn't they go after the Norway pipe as well, and perhaps try to blow up the LNG port before the first docking?  Probably so.  In that scenario.....all hell would break loose, and it would intensify the German attitude that 'something' has to be done. 

The odds that the Russians did absolutely nothing, and it's some other group?  I'd say it's better than a 50-percent chance.  Presently, they act like this was sabotage and not something in their masterplan.  Course, some Oligarch crew might have planned something like this, as pay-back for past behavior.  

The 260,000 Number Story

 There's a Russian story going around today......that in the past week....260,000 Russian young men left the country to avoid being 'activated' or 'drafted'.  

BS-factor?  I originally gave it a '8' (one to ten).

The problem here is that the comment started from someone within the FSB (former KGB).  

How this plays out?  Twice a year, the Russians hold a draft, and men are drafted into service as conscripts.  It would occur in the early spring and early fall.  So if you went and chatted on how many men left in the past six months.....knowing their 'ticket' would come up sooner or later, the 260,000 number probably reflects those who left and who are NOT reservists.  

The necessity of closing off the border?  This now comes up and makes one wonder if this imminent closure (perhaps this weekend) is more related to preventing massive problems for this fall draft, and the upcoming draft in spring of 2023.  

Is there an infinite number of young men to draft from?  The current arrangement is two drafts a year....spring and fall....each with around 130,000, who serve 12 months and then are on a reservist list for several years.

Russians will generally say that normal 'boot-camp' is 30 days, then a secondary 30-day period comes up with the unit (you might as well call it unit-training where you go out with the vehicles in some practice range....firing the rifles).  Lately?  The group who went into the Ukraine early this year?  Most suggest they spent around a week in boot-camp, and went direct to the 'front' of the war.

So back to the 260,000 number?  BS?  If you asked me about the smarter guys seeing the future back in March and April....I might agree that probably 100,000 have definitely packed and left.  But this brings up the odd topic....are the border guys or airport folks actually counting folks as they leave?  If they did.....then the FSB might have insight, and see the 260,000 number existing.

If it were true?  Personally, I'd be worried now about 18-year-old guys who survived being picked this time, but would come up in spring of 2023.  Yeah, they might be prioritizing their life, and figuring 'escape' to Europe or Turkey might be a better deal.    

The fact that young men of the correct age group may not exist, and activating the reservists is the only way to fill the ranks and allow the current conscripts to leave for home in January of 2023.

Downward Trend of Urbanization Coming

 There is a case going through the German court system (up to the Federal Constitutional Court) over a serious matter.  

The challenge?  There is a particulate matter situation brewing where in four cities (Frankfurt, Munich, Dusseldorf, and Berlin) the EU standard value is exceeded.  So there are seven individuals suing the cities, and trying to force significant clean air regulation upon the public.....in the interest of their health.

All of this involving nitrogen oxide?  Yeah....meaning diesel vehicles in the mix.

Worst case scenario?  Massive traffic limitations on entry into these cities, and a rapid change in business or industry existing in these cities.  It probably would take twenty years, but various industry and commerce operations would be forced to re-think their operation within the city limits of the four cities, and 'industry-exodus' would start to occur.  Translation?  In roughly 20 years, you'd see enough movement that the population would leave the urban areas with the industry and commerce.  A shrinkage of population would eventually occur.

The problem with this discussion (I'll use Frankfurt as my example).....there are various parts of town which aren't really affected by the particulate matter and nitrogen oxide, meaning those areas aren't issues.  The court will eventually reach a point where they gaze at the maps provided and ask stupid questions.  Whether these folks in the court action live in the affected areas or not.....will then come up.

My best guess?  I think the court will side with the challenge, and force the sixteen states to write regulations (figure a year minimum), which will then be translated down to various cities, and some kind of no-entry regulation will be drafted.  At that point, the industry side of these urban areas will say 'enough' and look for property fifty kilometers beyond the town.  

Living in Frankfurt or Berlin for the sake of your job?  Why?  If the industry, or company moved an hour beyond the city.....you will eventually sell your property and exit the city, for the sake of the job.  

At that moment, a new reality will hit city councils as they realize their urban growth has hit 'peak' performance.  It won't be a pretty thing to view the approaching decades and how regulation changed the attraction of the major cities. 

Putin's Palace Or A Hoax

 A couple of years ago.....someone came up and got photos over this 'palace' built in Gelendzhik, Russia (Black Sea region).

The original claim was that Putin himself financed it, and owned it.

Cost factor?  1.4-billion dollars is the rough estimate.  Since you don't know the layer below the ground (wine-cellars or such).....I'd suggest an amount going past the 1.4-billion.

After this story came out....an oligarch guy came out and stated his ownership of the 'palace'.

Various groups have investigated and each offer some different prospective on the ownership.

Mold and mildew figuring into the situation?  Well....in the last two years....this topic has come up and it's a known fact that some parts of the structure have been reconstructed....to prevent the mold.

The heating bill?  In winter months, I'd be guessing it's near $10k to $20k a month.  

As for Putin owning this?  I have my doubts.  If he were going to retire and live out the final decade of his life around the Black Sea, it'd make sense.  But he has no intention of retirement.

Something to pass to his wife or favorite son/daughter?  I don't see Putin having that attitude.

It does make for a good chat, but without much on facts.....you can't make the case that Putin is the owner. 

The Berlin 29 Euro Monthly Ticket?

 Due to the hype of the June, July, and August national 9-Euro (per month) ticket....being able to use for any bus/rail service except ICE....Berlin (the city) has found the resources to offer up a 29-Euro a month ticket.

Catch?  Well....you sign a contract for a 1-year period.  It's also a boundary situation.....the state or city of Berlin itself.

Other states likely to go this way?  Very limited possibility.

Due to the massive numbers of people in Berlin who use public transportation....there's only three states in this category who might be able to make this ticket work (Bremen and Hamburg are the remaining two).

Is it a good deal?  If you said this was a 29-Euro ticket that I could use across the nation.....anywhere?  Then yes.  In Berlin's case.....this is a ticket you use within the limits of Berlin itself.  So I won't suggest its a good deal, unless you were happy with just your local area/boundary.

Firing The Frankfurt Mayor?

 It's just an odd process underway in Frankfurt.

Five political parties (CDU, SPD, Greens, FDP and VOLT) are hyping up city voters to come out and vote 'NO' on the Frankfurt mayor (Feldman).  Roughly 250,000 handouts being printed.  

Election in roughly six weeks. 

Why the hype?  They need 150,000 city residents to show up and vote (30-percent of registered folks must participate).  

Feldman's SPD Party even against him?  Yeah.  

If you go ask folks around Frankfurt, virtually everyone knows of the situation, and has some opinion (mostly negative) about Feldman.  The question is....will they show up to vote the guy out of his job? 

Five German News Stories

 1.  Poll done in Germany.  Nationally, almost 50-percent of Germans think that Scholz is the wrong Chancellor for the job now required.  Only 38 percent agree that he's got the talents for the job.

2.  Nord Stream II pipeline damaged?  Various news stories suggest that there's no pressure on the unit, and it was heavily damaged somewhere on the Baltic floor.  At the same time.....Nord Stream I (the older pipe, same area) is showing no pressure. 

Russians at work?  No evidence, just suggestions.

3.  There's apparently talk of lesser shop hours for the winter period.....going on in Germany.  Part of this is a lesser-heat situation.  Some of this will reflect lesser cash flow going on because people are spending their extra money on heat/electricity.

On grocery stores?  Most run to 8 PM now, and probably one-third of them have a 9 or 10 PM close situation.

For clothing or retail shops?  Most run to 7 PM.  

4.  Shortage of carbonic acid going on (requires natural gas to form).  Affecting soda manufacturing and breweries.  Over the next month or two.....some lesser known brands will halt production.  

5.  A dollar now buys 1.04 Euro.....twenty-year high.  At present pace, I expect the dollar to be nearing 1.12 Euro by mid-December.  

The Hundred Days In Front Of Germany

 I sat last night and watched a short news piece.  Key feature?  Here was a typical German household, which had normally paid around 160 Euro a month for their natural gas system in the home.  

The new bill estimate from the provider?  In the 2,000 Euro range (monthly).

When asked how she could pay that....the response was....she couldn't.  

The provider probably would give her a warning by the 2nd month that she missed their 'goal'.  And by the third month, she'd be cut off.

All across German.....bills go out like this.

You see three things likely forming out of this:

1.  A whole bunch of Germans are going to marginally heat their homes this winter.  They might turn the natural gas furnace off entirely, and just run two or three electric heaters in the home.  

I stood in a hardware shop this week....which had a huge number of electric heaters up on shelves.  Some were the normal smaller sized units (for your bathroom), and some were mega-sized....the type you'd use in a work-shop situation (type that would consume 3,000 watts).  

The grid being able to handle a vast number of these situations?  No.  

2.  If a bunch of people quit natural gas providers....then some odd event would occur where the providers would be sitting on natural gas which wasn't moving.  Financially, they would be inviting a serious amount of chaos.....where people would refuse their product.  

3.  The government reacting and doing something immediately?  You don't get that impression.  There is a lot of talk, but it's like talking transmission repair issues with peanut-butter experts, or environmental folks.  

All of this snowballing into Christmas?  I see a massive collapse on gift purchases and normal holiday activity.  You could have a total collapse of the marketplace by the end of December in Germany.

Furniture shops and car sales collapsing?  If you don't have the money, you won't be spending it. 

So to my final comment....the next hundred days ought to be fairly interesting.  People will be doing things that they never dreamed of, and all this criticism of Covid....will be a joke compared to the new problem.  

Two Odd Things About The Russian Mobilization

 Yesterday, some Brit military analyst brought up the known fact that back in the mid-summer period....Putin signed a document to flip reservist-held hardware (tanks, artillery, trucks, APCs, etc) to the 'front'.  

There's not much said after that point. 

My general belief is that the best of the reservist gear was moved, and what was not moved then.....was 'crap'.  If true, then this activation of 300,000 has a serious empty hole presently.

Does Putin realize that?  I might question how the story was told to him, and some generals might have held the bad news back, when doing this in the summer period.

So, onto the second odd thing.....there's an awful lot of chatter that some border shutdown will occur by the end of the next weekend.  

In the old days, Russia (the Soviet Union) had a border control, with significant numbers of personnel to do the job.  After the Soviet Union dissolved.....that was one of the cutbacks.  

I think it's entirely possible that some portion of the 300,000 (maybe 20k, maybe 50k, maybe even 100k) will be sent to various 'posts' and the old border-guard will be put into business.  

How long were the 300,000 supposed to be activated?  Most comments indicate 12 months.  

What happens after the 12 months?  No one says much.

I would suggest that as badly as the war has gone....the general interest in Russians leaving the country has now moved up on the worry-scale for Putin, and they can't afford to see the brain-power of the nation leave.  

Should Anyone Get Worried About The Italian Election Results?

 If you watch German public TV (ARD or ZDF), then yes, you ought to be very worried about the evil fascists coming to power.

So to the reality, and my four observations:

1.  Rarely do any Italian coalitions survive two years before falling apart....going back to WW II.  So the odds are that this coalition will fail as well (probably in 12 to 18 months).

The Conti coalition number 1, the Conti coalition number 2, and the Draghi coalition group.....all ultimately failed.

2.  Italian unemployment is near 7.9-percent currently, and it's hard to generate jobs in the current atmosphere....so the public is going to marginally give the new coalition time to restack the deck.

3.  Last year (2021), 145,000 migrants/refugees came to Italy.  There's never been a clear picture by anyone (journalists, political figures, etc)....as to the success or failure of the program, and some might suggest that more than half left Italy for Germany.  

The right-wing folks opening the gate, for these migrants to travel to Germany?  It's talked about but mostly BS.  If you see an open-door and Germans hyped-up?  Then you might ask for real numbers, and see what's said.

4.  Finally, the new gov't might cease on the idea of halting the arrival of migrants to Italian ports.  If that happens.....the EU will react and say this cannot happen. Italy will respond with some 'screw-you', and for some brief period.....the rescue ships will dock in France.  

Yeah, if you were French and irked by more refugees.....this next year might be rough.  

What the German public TV folks might be worried about?  The first year of the SPD-Green-FDP coalition is closing out shortly, and it's not much to brag about.  This could easily influence state elections over 2023 and 2024.  

Russian Recruitment Officer Shot?

 What's reported via the Brit Guardian this AM....as some site in Ust-Ilimsk (town of 86k residents, about 1,200 miles to the east of Moscow)....a group of reservists (various ages) were brought into a building, and some military recruitment officer was giving his 'talk'.

It's probably a BS 'talk'.....'you're be home in 90 days', 'saving Russia from the Nazis', and 'you will all come home with medals and be remembered for your bravely' speech.  

A guy stood out of the line, and walked up to the officer....saying "nobody goes anywhere here" and shot the guy a couple of times.  Guy might be just badly wounded....no one is saying much so far.  

What happened to the reservists in the room after the shooting?  No one says much.  If it were me.....I would have stepped outside....smoked at least half a pack, and downed a half-bottle of booze.  It'd be a bad way to start off a morning as a forced reservist in the war.  

The officer wounded or dead?  Probably gets a hero-medal and a pension if still alive.  

Odds of firearms in the general public?  There was a fair amount of gun control 'laws' put into effect in the Soviet Union days, and in the past decade.....even more regulations added. Police would likely say there's as much control as you can exert on the public....without daily frisks to occur.  

If you went to the mafia folks around Russia?  They'd mostly grin and respond that if you need a gun, you'd pay in cash and have the gun.

This story getting out in social media and worrying both the recruitment folks and the police?  More than likely.

Bad Indicator Of Things To Come

 I sat and watched a video piece this AM.....of the forward Russian unit preparing to receive their first 'batch' of Russian reservists. 

This unit had enough bunk beds to handle the flow (I would assume 300 beds from what I saw).  The problem is.....no tents or depot buildings to put these under.

So what you had was 300 bunks set up in the woods.....no cover or enclosure.  Night-time temperatures?  For late September, it's probably down to about 7 C (44 F).  With a decent sleeping bag and no rainfall.....you can survive the night without much worry.

Would they be issued a decent sleeping bag?  I'm betting NO.  They probably get one to two wool blankets.  For the next month, this is survivable but miserable conditions.  

How things progress in late October to mid-November?  Evening temperatures would get down into 0-C (freezing range), with light rainfall/snow flurries as a minimum in the daytime.  

You probably will have two percent of the incoming crowd (figure 100,000 reservists arriving by mid-October) who will have some form of hypothermal or possibly pneumonia. 

Getting better conditions by moving to the 'front' and being in the middle of the war?  No.  I'd even suggest fewer than a quarter of the incoming crowd get decent sleeping bags for the conditions there.  Most will end up with the 9.99 cheapo sleeping bag made in China and worthless after thirty days of use.  

What's With The Documenta-15 Scandal?

 So, to begin with....Documenta is a art-show held in Kassel (northern most city of Hessen).  It runs from mid-June to the end of September.  It's held every five years, and around the region of Kassel....it's a big deal (tons of tourists and upscale intellectual events).  

This was Documenta-15.....which you don't need to worry about the next one until 2027.

So what happened to trigger the scandal?

Some artists showed up with anti-sematic (anti-Jew) 'hints' in their art....plain and simple.

Various folks had the job of review, and preventing something like this.  You get the impression that either they were sleeping, or just didn't grasp politicalized 'jabs' in art.

The federal and state government folks?  All hyped-up and they want absolute control established before the next event in five years.

Naturally, the artists have hinted that government control is not in the best interest of art.  

A lot of regulation appearing by 2027?  This is the odd expectation of things to come.  You probably will see a thousand works of modern art....going through some audit by three or four 'inspectors', and a dozen-odd pieces being refused entry because of violation of rule-x or rule-y.  

So, this is the funny part of the story.  Back in the mid-1950s....in order to show recovery from the evil Nazi period.....re-introducing modern art (the contemporized stuff)....was a big deal.  So Documenta was started up.

Key part of the show?   It was to show recovery from the 'evil darkness' of the Nazi era.  'Evil darkness'?  Well....that meant art that the Nazis created which was cartoonish in nature, but slamming the typical Jew.  

I've seen the scandal art that got everyone upset, and would suggest it was representations of the 1930s cartoon art.  To be honest, a lot of what existed in the 1930s and war-period....has dissolved away and it's rare they are shown in any form.  So, there probably ought to be a reminder of what existed, but this scandal business has made that nearly impossible.....with everyone trying blame each other for who allowed this to occur.  

Yeah, on the scandal scale (one to ten)....I'd put it at a 'five'....at best, but Germans seem to thrive on any scandal.  

Presently?  I would make a guess that at least ten artists are sitting in some dark room....trying to imagine how they could sneak a Nazi symbol or two into the next art show.  

Q-and-A

 1.  Is this Italian election a big deal?

The Germans (public TV) have pumped up the results, because of a fair amount of votes for the right-wing party....'Brothers of Italy' came out as a winner.  While the Democrats (center-left) 'failed' to win.  

Listen, there are 14 parties that play out in this election, and a lot of this was just plain election-hype with no real substance.  

The top subjects for this election?  Minimum wage, immigration woes, basic income, cannabis legalization, and accusations of failure since the last election (2018).  

2.  Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) arriving at the port in Hamburg by end of the year?

Yes.  First load is scheduled now, coming from UAE.  

The amount talked about for this first delivery?  1.37 million KwH of value.  That's about 75-percent of what would flow through Nord Stream I (the Russian pipeline) for one single day. 

To really make a difference, you'd need a minimum of four dockings per week, with all other deliveries (from Norway, etc) to perform at their peak.

3.  Limit on Christmas lighting in Germany?

Well....a director for one of the government environmental agencies has openly suggested that cities and towns in German establish a 'limit'.  

How this will be perceived?  Hard to say.

4.  Charcoal grill poisoning?

This story came up in the AM....some German guy in Bavaria was trying to use the bar-b-q grill with regular charcoal.....to heat his apartment.  

Wife had a fainting at some point, and his nephew fell unconscious.  Rescue crew saves the day.  

5.  Half-way point of Oktoberfest?

Well.....on customers....way less than they expected, but bad weather has played into this situation.  

My Five Predictions For Ukraine And The 300,000 Russian Reservists

 1.  On eagerness to participate or demonstrate combat capabilities after two weeks of boot-camp....I'd say that no more than 50-percent are hyped-up and thrilled to be there.  The rest are shaking their head, with a quarter of them probably thinking they won't survive the next 100 days.

So my first prediction, as the first 10,000 are organized into a Corps....some guy gets a promotion to General, with a dozen guys getting a promotion to Colonel, and a bunch of new Captains dumped into the middle of this.  A month into the history of this 1st Corps....more than 5,000 are dead or wounded.

2.  As you get to the 50,000 level of new Conscripts in the front.....new guys begin to discover that they are getting ill-fitting uniforms (just one issue), and almost no winter/harsh weather gear.  The uniforms are all Chinese-made and made of sub-standard material, with even the helmets issued being of marginal quality (no better than a bicycle helmet).  

3.  Each new 'battle-brigade' (supposed to be a blend of infantry and tanks/APCs).....will only have two tanks (both of a 1960s production history).  These brigades will be designed as weak-enough.....to go into battle and fail in their first 72 hours of combat.

4.  As some new Conscripts arrive at the front, they kill their commanders....advance to the Ukrainians with a white-flag and offer to surrender.  A hub will be developed to bring the Russians in.....offer them conditions in Germany, and they will quietly leave the military.  Some analysts will say by December that more than 10,000 Russians have accepted surrender as the only way out of the mess.

5.  Depression and negative attitudes will 'bloom' by Christmas, as the reservists shake their head over marginal food, no winter gear, and incompetence demonstrated by their officers.  Stories will exist suggesting more than 300 of the Wagner mercenaries killed by the Conscripts.  

Germans and Calories

 From around 1800 to 1860....Germans on average consumed around 2,100 calories per day.

For a comparison....today (2022), the number is up around 3,500 calories.  

Numbers?  By Human Progress and their site.

So you consider the bulk of German physical labor in the early 1800s....with calorie intake...there just weren't that many chubby people around.

From the 1860s to 1940s, there's a trend line going up....year by year.  By WW I, they were up to around 2,600 calories per day.

By 1940?  They were up to almost 2,800 calories.

Then, the trend 'bulks' up as they emerge out of WW II, and you get into the 1960s....with the calorie intake near 2,960 calories.

The trend since the 1990s?  Up to around 3,300 calories per day, per German.

Why?  I can remember walking around in most German cities in 1978 and 1984.....finding few if any fast-food franchise operations.  Yes, they existed in Hamburg, Frankfurt or Koln, but if you went to Bitburg, or any town of 40,000.....they just weren't around.  After the 1990s....the hype of fast-food took off.

It's like bringing up the addition of beef or pork in the German diet prior to WW I, and most agricultural support folks (the key job of the era).....were having nightly stew or soup, with bread.  Maybe once or twice a week.....they 'feasted-up' and ate a real beef/pork dinner.  The calorie-killer of that era?  A loaf of bread, and a ton of butter to spread over the top of your bread.

A lot of calories?  Well....Germans aren't at the top of the list.....Austrians average around 3,800 calories per day, with Americans quietly in 2nd place with 3,750 calories per day.  (2018 numbers)

A downward trend sooner or later?  Some Germans think that taxation will enter the fast-food market in the future, and high-calorie foods will be put into a premium situation....being unaffordable to most people.  I'm skeptical of the idea but it's hard to see the projection scale continuing.....reaching 4,000 calories a day by 2030.  

Russian Mobilization: 300,000 or 1-Million?

 There's been a lot of chatter over the past week about this Kremlin situation....for reservists to be recalled.  So a discussion started up.....is the real recall effort set to 300,000 or to 1-million (meaning half of the entire reservist force of Russia).

Well....it goes to paragraph 7, and what was public information and what some believe was hidden information. 

The general statement is that Putin can now authorize 300,000 reserves to be called up and put into uniform.  The rest of the statement goes to the idea that he'd not limited to 300,000, and could easily sign a piece of paper authorizing another 700,000.

How this would play out?

I would suggest four key issues:

1.  Does Russia have the logistical capability to put 300,000 into the Ukraine front and fully support them (ammo, food, fuel, tanks, medical attention, etc)?  I'm skeptical that the system presently in place would support this crowd.

It wouldn't shock me if Russian conscripts started complaining about only getting fed every other day.  

2.  Once you remove the 300,000 reservists from their civilian job.....how long does it take for Russian commerce to trend down into operational chaos?  A month.....three months?

3.  If the 700,000 were added by January....could the nation function without the services of these young men?

4.  Considering the bulk of the 300,000 probably haven't held a gun or participated in a legit exercise in several years....maybe even for two decades....what's their value in real combat operations?  Will they even survive the first sixty days?

My anticipation is that things in Russia....in terms of the economy and normal day-to-day logistical support....will start to crumble by the end of October.  

The 28-year old guy who drove the milk truck from six dairy farms to the processing plant....won't be there to do his job.  

The 30-year old guy who worked at the regional bakery won't be there for production of bread going to grocery stores.

The 22-year old guy who installed heating systems for new homes....won't be there for sixteen new home heating jobs required in October.  

The 39-year old guy and a dozen of his associates who worked at some brewery in Moscow....won't be there to produce beer, so the operation will shut down.

So if the 300,000 problem was pretty stressful....just wait till January for the other 700,000 to be called up.  

Russians, Alcohol, and Reactionary Judgement

 Throughout my youth (in the Air Force), I encountered individuals who had alcohol problems, and in the bulk of decision-making situations (both at work and at home)....they made bad judgement calls.  

They'd show up at the office/shop, and some chaotic event would occur where a logical decision had to be made, and the prior evening's affects of boozing-up....laid the path for a lousy decision to be made.  Subordinates were forced to live with the consequences of the guy's problem, or compensate by derailing his solutions.  

The more I look at Russian failures in Ukraine, it reaches a point where I start to ask....from the various commanders running around ordering things to be done.....is the Russian tendency to excessively drink and do stupid things part of the bigger issue playing out in this special operation?

This AM, I watched a pick-up point video of Russian reservists.....being herded to some airfield....where the plan was to fly a hundred of the guys down to the border area of Ukraine.  From the video....at least half the guys were excessively drunk and some were laying in the grass.....passed out.  Whether they ever got on the plane or not....unknown. If they did manage to board....with turbulence, I'd figure half of them would be barfing on the flight down, and clean-up would be a problem later.

The US military has a rule for war-zones.....NO BOOZE.  It'll be read to you at least a dozen-odd times.  Failure to comply?  You can lose a stripe, or be in some serious legal trouble.  

So I'm looking over at the Russian situation, and wondering....since the invasion started....how often have Russian soldiers been boozed-up while on a convey situation or led by some commander whose judgement was affected by the previous evening's bottle of vodka?

Trying to pen this whole trend just on booze?  I won't say that.....but if you were looking for a dozen reasons to explain the current mess....it does fit into the discussion.

If I were Ukrainian and knew the history....with Russians advancing toward some town?  I'd put two or three pallets of vodka in the center of town....let them booze up for a couple of hours, then counter-attack while they lay there drunk in the street.  

Five German News Stories

 1.  Russia-Ukraine.

Lot of hype that male protest folks (no matter age) are being arrested, held, and then released to the Russian Army....to be given uniforms, and then sent direct to the front with no training or boot-camp.  They will be killed....one way or another.

I watched an interview of a Russian woman (late 20s).  Her husband was a reservist and sent to the war.  Her chief complaint.....he had a decent job and income prior to this moment.  She's not that sure that the family income will be maintained, and questioned how financial things will work. 

Lavrov (Foreign Minister for Russia) suggests that everyone in the West is anti-Russia or has Russophobia.  This is often repeated on state TV, so a lot of Russians may believe this.

2.  Where is the natural gas tax-levy going?

The levy would exist to give some cash into the pockets of the natural gas providers because their contract system could keep up or match the real cost of natural gas.  If you don't add this tax.....various providers (not all of them) would go into failure.

This is being debated a good bit.  Is the tax-levy even Constitutional?  That's coming up almost daily.  

For a lot of Germans.....the cost has escalated so much already....that the levy just breaks the camel's back.

All of this drags up the subject of a natural gas 'cap'.  Some believe that the government (in October) will be dragged in and forced to cover what is above the cap (could be tens of billions, monthly).

3.  It came up this weekend that BR (the Bavarian public radio-TV empire) 'boss/director' was regularly paid around 266,000 Euro a year as salary.  But BR also had to admit that there was around 500,000 Euro (more or less) in 'other' compensation that they were 'gifting' her.  

Lot of heartburn going on in the public about these public TV scandals brewing.  

BR's financial 'hole'?  It's generally figured in the 450-million Euro range, and has started a chat that in normal situations.....they'd be forced to declare bankruptcy, and have a judge assign a new director/boss to the public TV network (most Germans laugh when this is openly discussed).  I think 10-percent of Bavarians would openly welcome a judge-bankruptcy situation and force the network to be operated by someone else.

4.  Lot of chatter going on about Germany accepting Russian men who ask for asylum.  There probably will be a vote conducted in the next two weeks, with acceptance for the idea.  Numbers? Unknown.  I doubt if anyone would be shocked if this number were over 100,000 in a matter of two months. 

Even if you weren't on the reservist list to be activated....this Putin action has scared the crap out of half the nation, and started a trend where young males leave....figuring their 'number' will come up in six to twelve months.  It'll trigger a major economical and work-related issue in 2023, once realized.  

5.  'Energy-Tsunami' is being uttered a good bit by German mid-sized companies....as they will either cease operations completely or go to a lesser schedule....because of natural gas prices or the electrical costs.

Blame?  Being dished toward the Economics Minister (Habeck, Green Party). 

There needs to be a full-scale solution sized-up now, and implemented by the beginning of October.  At present pace....I don't think much of anything will occur until early November.  

I was at a grocery this week in Wiesbaden....which oddly enough....had zero catfood of particular brand on the shelf.  Delivery?  Probably would not occur until the end of the month for that brand type. 

Political Chatter

 At the end of the week, there was a discussion idea underway....to have 'zone' electrical prices.  A flat max?  That was the discussion.  

Naturally, those discussing this....wanted any area which was mostly recycled energy (wind, solar), to get a set and cheaper rate.

So three German states (all on the northern coast)....want their area to reflect a cheaper rate....and Bavaria (the least of recyclable areas) to get some 'burden' rate.

This triggered a fair amount of criticism by the Bavarians.  Their negative point?  They don't want the wind-generators next to villages or farms.  

Where this will go?  I expect the set price deal to drop like a rock....going nowhere.

BR and the Lacking Pension Program

 In the public TV/radio situation....BR is the Bavarian sub-network.  

This week, an audit got wrapped up.  There's a serious issue brewing, which Focus discussed this AM.  Topic?  All total....it's missing around half-a-billion Euro to cover future pensions.  

The urgency of fixing this?  Well....what they indicate is that by the end of 2024....the pot of money for pensions to the former employees....will be gone.

What'll happen?  Unknown....neither BR or the ARD 'mother' folks spoke much to this.

I would imagine that ARD would shift enough to cover part of the half-billion but it brings up a bunch of questions about financial accountability and just how bad the rest of the sub-networks are.  If you have half of the national sub-networks in this shortage issue...there's a limit to what you can do.  

Where this might lead onto?  I would suggest a massive restructuring coming up for both public TV and radio.

Bavarian public radio?  There are ten 'stations' active presently.  Most all work on DAB and half are still FM capable.  If you asked around for numbers....I doubt if all ten have that many listeners, and some might only have a couple thousand 'fans' at night.  

Why this didn't come up as a national known topic?  That question is begging for answers as well.  It should have been laid out five years ago. 

The Friday's Kids

 I sat and watched about eight minutes of the news from last night via ARD (German public TV) which focused on the Fridays For The Future German teenagers.  

The simple description of the group?  This is a loose-based group of German teens who came to appear in the spring of 2019....hyped-up to resolve the climate crisis.  Their chief theme?  They appear for class on Fridays at 8 AM, and typically 'walk out'.  They then meet somewhere in the region.....traveling by bus or train....for a group demonstration.  

Now if you asked....how many kids participate?  German journalists never ask or just pretend it's not important.  You can count a couple of thousand to show up in places like Hamburg, Berlin or Frankfurt.  But if you asked how many kids stayed in class, and didn't walk out?  No one knows the number. My general belief is more than 50-percent of German kids don't participate.

Last night's theme?  Well...they had some teenager who spoke to the new goal of the 'team'.....they want the 100-billion Euro.  

I thought....nice round number.  It couldn't be 44-billion or 66-billion.  Nice number chatter usually pushes my skeptical 'meter' up four notches.

Purpose?  Recyclable energy.  

Nuke energy?  Good heavens, NO!  By their estimate, that is the most expensive way of producing energy.  

The thing I find discomforting about this chatter?  If you wanted a flat scale view of economics and no chance of escalating cost (like with coal, natural gas, or back-up energy requirements for solar/wind).....then nuke energy makes perfect sense.  I should also note....if your thing was carbon neutral enthusiasm.....nuke energy makes sense there too. The argument of nuke plant accidents?  The massive bulk (globally) operate for 40 years, without accidents.

How the 100-billion Euro would be split up or spent?  Unknown.  The spokes-kid didn't get down to dynamics of that deal.  

The fact that most TV journalists for public TV don't challenge or argue the problems with the kid's logic?  That's the most comical part of watching this play out on TV.  

Where the 100-billion round-number came from?  No idea.  I'm sure if you dug into it and ask for the original ideas guy.....it'd be an adult from some special foundation....that seems attached to some agenda.

The thing about this discussion over electrical power and the grid...which will intensify this winter....you need a priority system that is long in strategic planning efforts, and centers on reasonable cost.  Once you start telling some German that their monthly 'old' rate was 70 Euro a month, and the new rate is near 200 Euro a month.....they go ballistic and some chatter by teenagers isn't going to help matters.  

Why the Friday's kids couldn't select poverty in Germany to protest upon?  Well....that's a good question.  But lets not confuse the young 'Einsteins'.  

My suggestion for the 100-billion?  Lets cut Fridays out of the German school system entirely, and add one additional year for kid to attend school and be 'gifted' enough to release out into the world. 

The Russian Preoccupation To Under-Perform?

 Here, since 24 Feb of this year, if you look at the landscape, accomplishments, losses, and performance....the Russian strategy (whether intentional or accidental) has been to under-perform.

It is something that you would not have considered prior to 2022.

Is it a statement about Putin?  Some might argue that he lacked the skills for this particular job.

Is it a statement about the old Soviet Union and how Russia didn't evolve out of it....it just renamed or rebranded itself?  Some might suggest that.

Is it a statement about a dying empire?  Some might go back to the 1917 period and argue that Russia/Soviet Union's peak was really over 100 years ago.  

I would make the case that the nation (with only 144-million in population) is about ten times the size for what they want to manage and achieve.  There are areas about a thousand miles to the east of Moscow....where you'd leave pavement and travel for four hours.....to find some remote village of sixty people who rarely ever see strangers.  

There's the legend of the Potemkin-villages....which were just a show piece and not intended for real people to reside in.  I would suggest on a grand scale.....a Potemkin-nation has been built, and Russia can never perform to the level that you'd expect.  

More of the same to occur?  Probably.  

Three Odd German Stories

 These are things that just set me to pondering:

1.  No massive wave of Covid out of the Oktoberfest.

Yes, for weeks and weeks, there was this anticipation of the 'great' wave of Covid to come to Munich.  So far?  Nothing much.  The city of Munich has even gone to test waste-water....thinking they'd get an indicator there. 

Why?  Unknown.  Maybe everyone has had it....or gotten vaxed-up.  

Some locals admit....business for the fest is way short of normal....some even saying that one-third of their profits expected....aren't there.  Fear of Covid, and weather (pretty crappy the past week) might tie into this.

2. German weapon sales to Saudi Arabia.....zero approvals?

That's correct....the Scholz coalition has not approved any weapon sales.  What happens now?  Open market for US, France, UK, etc.  

I would anticipate that several companies will look at the idea of relocating their operation beyond the German border.

3..  More Covid deaths in Germany for 2022....than in 2021 or 2020?

Yeah.  It was openly discussed on N-TV this AM and probably begs a lot of questions.  

Total German deaths since day one?  149,361 out of 83-million.  Infection situation?  They are approaching 33-million official infections....although some of these people are two and three times infected.  The majority still not having had it?  Yes, that's the big story I think in the end. 

This week, I talked to an American who works in a clinic.....twice in the past year....she's had Covid.  'Comes with the business' is the comeback in her response.

Six German News Stories

 1.  Focus ran a piece this AM, discussing a fairly well-known German baker in the Koln region....on the verge of financial collapse.  To survive, he'd have to take all his products and quadruple the pricing.  He ran two shops, and had 35 people working for him.  

As the guy admits, first....there was the wheat escalation problem.  But the electrical/natural gas issue just adds to the burden.  

2.  Yesterday was a Friday, and like you'd expect....the 'Fridays for the Future' kids were on a demonstration frenzy....leaving classes.  According to Focus, a number of kids at a Freiburg school weren't that enthusiastic and didn't want to participate.  So the hyped-up kids went back into the school....to disrupt things, and attempted to hype-up the remainder kids.  

3.  From news reports (Focus), a huge blockage at the Russia-Georgia border yesterday.....10 km of traffic lined up.....young men leaving the country made up the bulk of this.  

Even if you were unaffected by the reservist call-up....folks aren't that sure about where things will go in the next couple of months.  This group is probably made up of university male students who worry about their status in six to twelve months.  

4.  Fair amount of protest rallies in Lower Saxony (the German state).  State election to occur on 9 October and with hyped-up feelings about natural gas and electricity.....folks are aggravated.

Protest actions mostly against Greens, SPD and FDP.  

How things appear for the election?  SPD likely wins at around 32-percent, with the CDU close behind at 28-percent.  Greens appear near 17-percent.  AfD at 10-percent.  FDP and Linke.....might fail to reach 5-percent.  

If you were asking me about a 'shock' here?  No.....it's mostly a repeat of the 2017 election....along the same lines.  The only thing I do see on trends....the Greens are losing a half-point a week for the past month.  

5.  WELT had a discussion with economists, and they wrote a piece for this AM.....mostly saying that everyone in Germany will lose 'something' during this financial crisis.  In their assessment, the nation will emerge....with lasting damage (meaning years and years) done to the overall stability of the country.

Yeah, it's a pretty dismal prediction, but you can see housing/apartment/condo construction sliding fast right now, and will stall for the foreseeable future.

6.  Finally, there's a bit of aggravation brewing on health insurance rates.  A 17-billion Euro 'hole' exists.....meaning they are lacking the 17-billion and need to make up for the trend.

What this leads to?  Whatever rate you had for public health insurance....it'll go up by .3-percent.  But that doesn't really cover the bulk of the requirement.  So the Health Ministry intends to take the rest via taxation....meaning you will pay the full amount....in some way.  One discussed item is that the Pharmacy industry will pay into this pot....meaning the drugs you require.....will go up in some form.

Political Chatter

 Every year, RTL (commercial TV in Germany) has a special 3-hour type show called "People, Pictures, and Emotions".  If you were out of Germany for the past 12 months....it rounds up all the big stories.

Normally (probably for 15 years), Gunther Jauch would host the show.  Jauch, I would suggest is trusted by 90-percent off the nation, and clearly a 'trusted' source for logic and reason.

He's also up at a retirement age, and this year to be replaced.

The new guy?  Curiously.....Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg.  Who is the guy?

At some point around 2010, Guttenberg was the premier guy figured to push Merkle out and be the CDU-CSU candidate for Chancellor.  Then.....some organization stepped in and did analysis over his thesis paper for his degree.  Plagiarism was the charge.....which stuck.

Guttenberg eventually resigned from politics, and left Germany....ending up as a analyst for a US think-tank.

Rehibition?  Well....some people would say he's paid his price and is simply walking back into Germany.

On logic and brain-power.....one to ten?  I'd give the guy an eleven.  He does his homework, and is ready for any debate.  Presently in Germany, for debate skills....I'd say in the final five...Guttenberg is in the group.  Any journalist thinking they can 'best' him?  Don't count on it.

How this might play out?  There's not another national election until 2025.  I could see him getting a good bit of air-time via RTL for 2023 and 2024.  Maybe he comes back in the spring of 2025, to voice his situation as a candidate.  

The Thing About The Electrical Rate Change Coming

 This past week, I watched a business segment, which featured a grocery chain 'boss' here in Germany, and questions came up about evolving strategies for the energy 'mess'.

The guy at some point....admitted that they are looking at the amount of power being consumed via the freezer department of each grocery, and if it's time to reduce display space.

In simple terms? You walked into a German grocery which typically had a department of sixteen refrigerated or freezer systems, and now....they may have cut the display space to three refrigerator units and three freezer units.  So the product line?  Possibly cut by 50-percent.  The space where brand name X stood with five types of pizza, and each morning with twelve pizza boxes in each compartment?  Gone.....you have just two choices from that brand.....not five.  

You will grumble and ask if and when their display cases return to normal, and the kid just responds that for the foreseeable future....this is the normal situation.

So you began to consider the recession and deflation problem brewing.  Your pizza company made five types and it was all great business....until now.  Now, the grocery chain will only sell two of your five pizza types.....because they don't have the power to display things.

How big a deal is this?  I walked through a chain grocery in Wiesbaden last night.  There's probably forty refrigerated cases there.....fifteen just in the cheese and deli area.  Up at the front, there's a soda/beer refrigerated case there.  I would imagine it'd be the first to go.  

It's a harsh reality when you think about this.  In the whole of Wiesbaden, with all the various grocery operations....there's probably over 300 display cases that would be turned off and left sitting there....until a electrical rate change occurs. 

Six German News Stories

 1.  I sat and watched ARD (German public TV, Channel One) last night for the late news.  They had a fair amount of video from Russia.  So here was a bus....loading reservists for 'action'....to which I gazed at the line of twenty-odd Russian guys.....ages 20 to 40.  The problem I noticed right away....at least a quarter of them were in what I'd call the 'fat-boy' program....meaning they were fairly overweight....maybe thirty pounds.....maybe seventy pounds.  From this day forward?  They'd get marginal daily rations, and if they survived the war....come back in a year having lost the seventy-odd pounds.

Then ARD went to locations in Finland and Georgia....where young men arrived to escape the war and the activation of the reservists.  Some refused to talk.  Some admitted that they might not be coming back for a decade (figuring Putin might survive that long).  Numbers?  It's hard to say, but it's obvious that more than a couple of thousand left Russia or have some plan underway.

What this evolves into, if 100,000 up and leave Russia?  Well....they performed tasks or worked at jobs.  So come Monday morning when the boss is looking for Ivan and Andrei to handle some aircraft maintenance issue....he'll find them gone.  The electrical grid guys of Moscow?  They might find forty of their electricians no longer in-country.  

It simply invites a long-term problem in handling minor issues around the country.

2.  Focus brought up this interesting story on electricity calculations.

There's this German guy from Dusseldorf who got a letter from his electrical company.  It was supposed to help him figure his rate of usage.

He put the picture of the letter up, with it's mathematical layout.  

First, it was stuff that you'd do for a first-year college class, and if you were the typical average German.....this was way beyond your normal math capability.

Second, it made me wonder if management at the utility company even gazed at the document before releasing it.

3.  Under WELT this AM, there's an interesting piece written by Diana Pieper, who examines the transformation of the 'Fridays-For-The-Future' kids....who appear now to be highly enthusiastic about anti-capitalism.  

Not really a shock.....I saw this in the summer of 2021 with the group.  Whoever is leading the kids....has a political agenda at heart.

If you can find the paper....look for the article....worth a read.

4.  There are five games in 2024's European Soccer championship series to be played in Frankfurt.  Cost to the city?  Well....they finally came to admit this issue yesterday....the city will have to cough up thirty million Euro.  It's a fair chunk of money, but you can figure at least 40,000 people showing up for each game, and probably spending at least 200 Euro for their 'experience'.

5.  Somewhere yesterday in this Russia-Ukraine prisoner exchange....around 100-odd Ukrainian fighters were released.  Shock came up because they were believed to be neo-Nazis.....so the Putin 'gimmick' of the conflict....was to kill neo-Nazis, and instead....they were released back to the Ukraine.  Propaganda-wise, it was a unsettling moment for Putin.  

6.  Via N-TV reporting....four Icelandic young guys were arrested for planning a terror attack on the isle.  Yeah, pretty strange.

Guns and ammo were found on them.  Reasons for the planning?  Cops don't say much.  

Five German News Stories

 1.  The head of the German Reservists Association spoke up to the idea of Putin activating 300,000 Russian reservists.

The best quote?  "Sending Russian soldiers so ill prepared for war, would be a military disaster for Russia."

2.  There's talk between the Green Party and the FDP Party of granting asylum to Russian soldiers who desert the Army.  

How this would work?  Unknown.

If you were talking about just 10,000.....I don't think it'd be a big deal for Germans to accept.  If you upped this number to 100,000....most Germans would ask a lot of questions.  

3.  There's this new 'wave' hitting German construction.  A lot of people who had signed papers to buy a condo situation under construction....have reviewed the purchase agreement, and gone to cancel their contract.

If you go and look into this....a effort over the past five years has been to make 'affordable' housing possible through condo sales.  So this avenue of the economy is going to hit a 'brick-wall' very shortly.  

4.  If you were measuring for anxiety and stress over the natural gas pricing in geographical terms.....the peak point in Germany at present is the eastern part (old DDR).  

Expectations for demonstrations are at a higher level there, than most other regions of Germany.  

5.  Frankfurt is holding a costly election on 6 November....basically to keep the current mayor, or throw the guy out of office.  

The only thing on the ballot?  Quote: "Do you vote for the removal of the Lord Mayor of the City of Frankfurt am Main, Mr. Peter Feldmann?".  That's it....the only matter.

Why is this occurring?  The city council finally stood up after numerous incidents and just said they lost faith....wanting him gone.  Well....he refused to leave until spring of 2023.  The election is the only way to force him out.

Problems here?  You have to have 30-percent of the registered voters to show up, and vote.  There's some doubt if people are that interested in dumping the mayor.

Why delay the exit?  News people have generally refused to discuss this matter, but I suspect it's leading back to a pension deal and he would forfeit x-amount of his government pension by leaving now.  

Would Three-Hundred-Thousand Reservists Make A Difference In The War?

 No.

If you had done this early on....say April, with the full listing of tanks still around....it would have wrapped up the war in a matter of six weeks.  Today?  You (Russia) expended all those tanks and APCs.

But lets add one sour problem here....these are reservists.  If you asked the majority.....they haven't done a real exercise type of situation in five to ten years.  Their training would be suspect.  Will you give them winter-gear?  

All I see is 20,000 reservists dead by the end of November, and a bunch of reservists getting bad attitudes about the war.

Adding one odd aspect?  Well....you are taking them out of the work-force.  You could do this for 90 days and it wouldn't really screw up the nation much.  If the 300,000 are still deployed in June of 2023?  Well....the whole economic situation will be fu**ed-up.  

Frankfurt Chatter

 There was a rather long feature on HR (our regional Hessen news) from last night, on Frankfurt and the Bahnhof (railway) 'quarter'.  

To sum it up....if you were in the Army or Air Force around the 1970s or 1980s....you have some image in your mind of the neighborhood, and if you ventured there today....you'd find it mostly drug-infested and about as maxed-out on seedy character as you can imagine.

A lot of the residents of the neighborhood (probably a mile by a mile region)...are fed up.

You can blame the police, the city council, and just the behavior of the city for thirty-odd years.....allowing the drug issue to fester.

How many homeless?  I walked through it in 2018, and would put the real number at 2,000 to 2,500 (at least in that point of time).  They do their 'hit' in the morning, and sleep through most of the day.

A threat to the public?  Generally, about every two to three months.....you have some weird assault either in the train station, or around the structure itself.  It'll be some drugged-up guy, or some paranoid schizophrenic with demons on his mind.  My general advice...if you have to transit through the station....get from point 'A' to point 'B', and don't linger (don't have coffee or stop at McDonalds).

The city council in a bind?  I'd say that the commercial side of operations in the affected area....have had enough (they want action).  Cops just shake their head because the folks really need some enclosure situation....with some judge preventing access to the general public.

Two Economic Questions On Germany

 1.  Is there a labor shortage in Germany?

Well....unemployment rests at the end of August at 3.2 percent.  The 2020 rate was at 3.8 percent.

If you walk around Frankfurt or Wiesbaden, in various stores, bars, cafes, bakeries and restaurants.....there are signs up for employment (full-time, part-time and mini-job status).  In a one-hour walk of the city center of Wiesbaden, I can probably spot around forty signs.  

If you go to the internet and you have specialized skills?  In my region, there are way over 3,000 jobs in the mix.  If you look at the Frankfurt Airport?  A minimum of 1,000 potential jobs are advertised between them, and their associated 'partners'.  If you go talking to most heating, plumbing or tile companies....they are all begging for apprentice folks, with billets sitting there empty.

It's been like seven years since it was 5-percent unemployment, and 12 years since it was near 7-percent.  

What is generally said is that the birthrate problem has finally come into focus, and unless you find non-Germans with some work-background to move in.....this trend will continue.  

2.  Are people on German welfare (the Hartz IV community) getting a better heating bill deal than working people?

Well....it got figured out in the past ten days....that the welfare system pays the rent and utility bill out of the government's pocket.  So virtually none of the welfare folks face a 400 Euro (a month) natural gas bill....the government will cover it.

Working class people figuring this out?  Yeah, and it's pretty discouraging that they will pay close to 5,000 Euro to cover the heating bill.  This is going to draw a lot of negative attention.  

What Does All This Russia Mobilization Chatter Mean?

 Basically, if Russia was going to full-scale war, with all military assets put into play, then Putin would need mobilization to occur, which means MORE conscripts.  

In simple terms, they'd go out and draft a number (probably over 100,000 folks) and run them through a short boot-camp, and issue uniforms (probably the bare minimum necessary).  

The general slam against this?  Well....logistically....speaking of trucks, jeeps, fuel vehicles, APCs, and tanks.....they've expended a significant amount of equipment.  If I were a Russian general, I'd gaze at the 'tunnel' approaching and question how you'd conduct this war with more manpower, but marginal hardware.

The Duma going along with this?  Maybe back in April, they would have hopped onto this idea and signed up.  But at this point?  I'd say more than half of them don't see how this would do much with most of the tanks lost so far in the war.  

How would a bigger ground war work at this point?  I think some generals would be given the job of marching 30-odd thousand troops from three angles, and try to carry out a bare minimum front, without much in terms of tank support.  Lack of training being a problem as well?  Yeah.

This whole thing reminds me of the UK-Falklands War, and how Argentina fell apart.  

Three Odd German Stories That Stand Out Today

 First, the EU court system stood up and announced that the German law that alllows the federal system to retain personal data (like phone calls, and emails)....is in violation of the EU system.  

The exact wording?  Without 'cause', you can only attach or store personal data to a very limited degree.

Shocking anyone much?  I doubt that.  It did take a while for the case to rise through the system. 

Now?  Well....a ton of personal data gets deleted.  

A negative?  Well....Germans were using the data 'grab' to hinder the crime gang activity.

Second, ARD (public TV) carried a news item this morning.....where one in five German kids are now at risk of living their life in poverty.  Yeah, it's a lot of kids. 

Fixing or resolving this?  You'd have to remake the whole welfare system.

Third, manufacturing announced today that back-orders are at a all-time level for Germany.  Blame?  Partly the natural gas price business, and some leading to logistics issues (lack of truck drivers).  

The 9-Euro Bahn/Bus Ticket Saga

 The 9-Euro monthly ticket business from this summer (June, July and August) just never seems to go away.  

Lot of hype in highly urbanized cities, where the public wants the return of the monthly ticket.  The dynamic of the ticket?  You pay one time for 9 Euro....a ticket that allows you onto any bus/train in Germany for a month, except the intercity 'fast' trains or the ICE high speed trains.  It was a 'gift' for the summer months to encourage people to use public transportation.  Cost factor?  There's several billion Euro that had to be injected into the public system....because 9 Euro doesn't cut the true cost. 

What's going on?  Huge public demand has turned the political cause to repeat the 9 Euro ticket.  A committee is working on a draft solution (to come in mid-October).  Affecting more federal funds?  Well....yeah....into the billions.

What is openly discussed is a 49 Euro monthly ticket (not the 9 Euro ticket).  Cost to the federal government?  Federal folks say around 3 billion Euro a year would be required to make the 49 Euro ticket possible.

Screwed up?  There are two significant issues.  First, most people shake their head at 49 Euro in cost.  It basically amounts to 1.63 Euro a day, which I don't think is a bad deal.  Second, virtually everyone in the train industry will admit that they don't have the assets to really run a crowded network like it was in June, July and August.

My humble view is that 49 Euro will be the ticket authorized for monthly use, and about half of the enthusiasm will dwindle away for cheap travel (they will think that 49 Euro is too much).  The 3 billion sponsored by the federal folks?  Totally wasted in the end.  

Aftermath of the Village Bank Robbery

 Things were updated last night via the bank and police about that 3 AM ATM machine blow-up in the village from yesterday.

First, there are actually two ATMs in the bank lobby area, and both were blown up.

Second, absolutely nothing in terms of Euro....were gained by the robbers.  Either they screwed up, or the machines were empty from weekend use (a common issue in the village if you show up on a Sunday afternoon to get cash from the ATM).

Third, three robbers involved (from video and people who woke up and watched the three escape).  They ran down a ways from the bank to a side-street where their Audi station wagon was located.  

So far, cops haven't ID'ed the three.

I doubt if the three robbers want to chat much over their failed robbery.  

Five German News Items

 1.  There's a youth wing of the SPD Party (for teens and up to age 25), called JUSOS.  They've started a topic item.....asking for a new German federal agency to handle porn in Germany.  RTL (commercial TV) covered this in the past day or two.

Basically, they want regulated porn.  

Oddly, in the middle of this discussion, they also believe that some form of porn could be shown on public TV (via ARD or ZDF).

This topic going anywhere?  I doubt it.  Even bringing this up with older SPD members would mostly be laughed upon.

2.  Last night, via RTL's 'Extra' news show, they ran a segment (you can watch the whole show here).....where blackouts were discussed.  

I'd say it was rather blunt, and if people were watching....it might strike some fear into Germans.   But I'd also note it was on at 10:40 at night, and a minimum number of Germans viewed it.

3.  German waste industry is sounding the alarm.....lack of garbage truck drivers.  You have to have a particular type of license and be certified.  Presently, there is a lack of drivers going on. Around 20,000 of these guys across German....retire yearly.

4.  German gov't says the natural gas storage unit is now 90 percent full.  The story goes....if Russia totally turns off the flow, at 95 percent, they will have enough natural gas to survive the winter.  By their estimates, within 10 days....they will hit the mark.  

5.  Summer travel season has closed out in Germany.  The crappy numbers for late flights or cancellations?  Around 36 percent of flights fell into that category when leaving from a German airport.  NTV segment this AM reports that.

Five Questions

1.  Monkey-pox quietly disappeared?

That's the funny thing via German TV news.  In the past ten days, I haven't seen a single mention of M-P.  Just odd how it came to be hot news in June and July, and now....gone.

2.  Izyum, Ukraine mentioned a lot  in the past couple of days?

Yeah....at least 400 people found buried in the middle of the woods.  Lot of war crimes chatter going on.  

3.  German Transportation Minister interviewed on TV?

Yeah, and it was pretty harsh words.  The Bahn (railway system) is overstressed and not able to perform at the levels required (as shown from this past summer).  Presently, it was built for x-amount of freight and passenger traffic, and it's pretty maxed-out

4.  Channel Two, public TV (ZDF) meteorologist saying no more 'nice weather comments?

Well....yeah.  Not to really get into this talk....but he says the climate change business and high temperatures in the past summer....is making it near impossible to be comforting in weather 'words' to Germans.

Personally, all I ever expected from a weather guy/gal....was a 60 second talk about tomorrow and maybe the day after that.  I don't want nice words or blunt criticism....just throw a map up....talk predicted temperatures, and if rain or snow figures into my day.  It doesn't have to be pretty or intellectual in nature.  If there are demons in the weather situation....it's best to just avoid this chatter.  

5.  My view of my local bank (ATM blown up at 3 AM)?

I drove and looked the damage.  Minimum of four months, and probably even eight months....to get the structure back into operational shape.  Whoever blew the ATM machine up....did over a quarter-million in damage to the structure.  I might even question if the bank can reopen, or if they close the bank entirely.  

3 AM In My Village

 Last night (Monday morning), around 3 AM.....a ATM machine was blown up in my village.  

It's a rather common occurrence in Germany.  Gangs roam around, and have a method or two....where they get to the cash machines, and blow them up.  In the process....99-percent of the time, the building is damaged in a severe way.  Occasionally, the building is made unusable and is torn down.  

How much they got away with?  Well....typically, these cash machines are filled on Friday, but by Sunday night....they are probably nearing empty status.  I'd question how smart these guys were, and that the amount stolen...probably was less than 5,000 Euro.  

The bad thing?  There's only two banks/ATMs in the whole village (4,000 people).  So if you were the type of person who took out 500 Euro each month for cash.....you might be in a problem, or facing a trip to the next village to find another ATM machine.  

The criminals?  For all the effort they expended.....to walk away with only 5k in Euro (my guess)?  It's not much to brag about.  

All these ATM bombings drawing the banks to fewer ATM machines in the future?  There's been a lot of suggestions over the past decade that a drop in ATM machines is very likely to occur.  

Code of Conduct Chatter

 So, this is not page 1, or page 2 or even page 6 type news.  But it's a curious piece.

Around a year ago, Deutsche Welle (a German sub-network off public TV)....had a couple of employees who uttered the comment questioning the need for Israel to have a right to exist.  

Yeah, it was a public social media type of comment.

Because of the hyped-up sensitive nature of looking Nazi-like....German public TV reacted pretty quickly, and dismissed the employees.

Well....the employees (2 so far) went to the work-court system, and the judge reviewed the case....then told Deutsche Welle to rehire those individuals (2 of the group so far) who took this into court.

This past week, Deutsche Welle ordered a change in it's 'code of conduct' of employees.  In blunt language, it says you have to acknowledge support for Israel's right to exist.

What'll happen next?  I'm guessing the code will be taken to court, and some judge will eventually say that it's unethical to force opinions upon public TV employees.  

But then you have to wonder....will all of this lead to more far extreme figures working for German public TV....to the far left, and the far right?  Will the public even notice this....acknowledging that they already felt the public TV system was extreme in it's opinions already?

Resolving any of this?  Well....it might be time to engage upon dissolving about half of public TV networks in Germany, and get back to marginal news reporting.  

Discontent Brewing

 Up until now in Germany, your monthly utilities bill that was pre-paid to your providers....stood at roughly 200 Euro (figure around 85 Euro on average for the electricity, 85 to 120 Euro for natural gas, and around 25 Euro for garbage and water services). 

If you asked most Germans....it wasn't a big deal.  

Presently?  This week, I read through a comment by a guy who'd gotten the combined monthly 'warning' letter, where the amount was just under 1,200 Euro a month (basically a thousand more than what was normal).

In his case, he figured he could cover two or three months of this, and then start slacking on his mortgage payment.  Whether or not he'd be able to stay in the home for the next year....was the general question.

The political system in Germany is more stable than what existed in the 1920s with the Weimar Republic, but the present system isn't geared to nationalize or take-over the natural gas or electrical network.  

The odds of demonstrations getting hyped-up?  Oh, I'd go and suggest that by the end of October, there will be dozens of major cities having demonstrations at least once a week.  

Two fringe parties likely to get public attention?  I'd suggest that both the Linke Party (far left) and the AfD Party (far right)....will get traction, and gain public support.  But if you asked....what's the solution here?  Neither group can solve this chaos.

Support for the environmental 'causes'?  Frankly, it won't surprise me if a lot of enthusiasm dries up and you see fracking openly discussed as a legit answer to the problem.  Development of nuclear energy likely to come up again?  Probably.  Firewood being used a great deal, with the environmentalists negative about 'soot' in the air?  Probably will happen.

'Winter of discontent' was a phrase used in the UK back in November 1978 for about six months.  It was attached to a national strike that brought a lot of negativity to the public and the government.  I see the same characteristics brewing currently with this energy chaos brewing in Germany.  

The next six months?  It will be a challenge in Germany. 

Six German News Stories

 1.  Out of Focus this AM.....there is a fairly long piece which talks to the issue of public utility organizations in Germany which are in desperate financial times.  These are the ones which handle not only power, but natural gas and water.  Roughly a thousand of them in existence, and all of them are having a shortage of capital.  Added to this problem....customer are talking about the loss of their home because they can't meet the combined monthly down-payment (in some cases now, exceeding 1,000 Euro for water, natural gas and electricity).

There's going to be a massive consumer shut-down shortly, where Christmas sales will lag by a major amount, and crash the economy even further.  

2.  Finance Minister talking about a salary cap?  Well....what he said was no CEO should make more than the Chancellor.  Current salary level?  Around 220,000 Euro.  

Odds of this getting made into a law?  People would have laughed in 2021, but now....I'd put it at 50-50 odds.  All this idea would do is trigger an exit of companies from Germany, where the 'big' headquarters would be located in a more friendly state.  

3.  There's talk by the Federal Building Minister (SPD) to regulate 'reasons' for termination between a tenant  and landlord.  The hype?  There's some speculation that tenants will get behind in monthly payments (because of the natural gas/electrical crisis), and the landlords will hand a termination notice to the renter.  

Yeah, it does sound like what the US did to landlords during Covid.  

If you wanted to create an even bigger crisis?  You'd go and allow some lesser monthly rental situation to occur, with landlords in Germany left holding the 'crap' at the end, and no way to meet mortgage obligations themselves. 

4.  An odd announcement this AM from France....Macron's party (La République en Marche (LREM)), has decided to rename itself.  

New party name?  "Renaissance".  Yeah, an odd name, I will admit.

A problem brewing?  Most people will say that LREM has peaked out on enthusiasm in the past twelve months, and there's some necessity to rebuild from the ground up.

5.  Peak inflation predicted for 2022?  Out of N-TV this AM....chatter says that 11-percent will be the peak by the end of the year.

6.  There is chatter going on about a potential Russian oil delivery 'halt' to Germany.  People using heating oil, up until this point, felt somewhat safe about their situation.  

What Happens To Putin In The End?

 Between now and the end of the year, I think the 'operation' will come to a closure, in a rapid two-week fashion.  I see five things occurring:

1.  Massive missile/artillery effort against remaining logistical 'hubs' left for Russian forces.

2.  Some effort in the Crimea with at least a thousand Ukrainian soldiers landing and carrying out an assault.  Civilians (mostly Russians) will head to the bridge to evacuate the isle.  

3.  At least five to ten generals in Moscow quietly disappearing (likely leaving for Greece or Turkey). 

4.  The Duma calling for hearing with Putin, with Putin being lectured that he has to appear.

5.  At least half the troops in the Ukraine for Russia now refusing to act because of lacking ammo/shells or adequate winter gear.  

The final turning point will be some police being ordered by the Duma to stand down and refuse Putin's orders.  

All of this will occur in quick succession.  

Some dramatic end with a non-Putin individual picked to temporarily take charge?  I would suggest that.  

The peace agreement?  It'll go with some indication of troops gone....some rebuilding funds, and a promise to hand over approximately forty individuals for war crimes (limiting the effect that hundreds ought to be up for war crimes).  In exchange, the sanctions have to be lifted in a matter of days (not weeks).  

The propagandized Russians?  They will stand in shock how the event unfolds and in disbelief that Putin is removed from power.  

Graffiti Chatter

 I live in a German village on the outskirts of Wiesbaden (probably 2 km away).  We were always 'safe' from graffiti that you'd see in town.  

It is a remarkable thing that people would have walked around in the mid-1980s, and never saw a bit of graffiti on any building in Wiesbaden.  Somewhere in the early 1990s....it became a regular thing to notice.  

Today?  I would guess within Wiesbaden, the city itself, there's probably in the range of 3,000 'acts' of graffiti.  Some artfully done....some just 1-star crap.

Well....this week, the first graffiti ever.....appeared in my village.  In the midst of town, on the side of some restaurant, it appeared.  A big deal?  For most, they were probably waiting for the day to come.

Oktoberfest Starting Today?

 Yeah, after a two-year period of Covid.

Expectations?  Some folks talk of worry over Covid.  Some suggest that it'll be smaller in terms of crowds.  Some suggest that weather will influence this fest more than usual.

I'd just settle back and watch what happens. 

Germany, Deflation, and Worries

 People don't usually hear the term deflation....it's inflation they hear constantly.

Deflation is where you manufacture something at x-cost, and you can't sell it at that price, so you cut your profits to zero, and offer the service or manufactured item at X-minus 5-to-10 percent.  It's sold at a rate to cover manpower, raw material and logisitics.....so the sales tax lags, the company tax payment is crappy, and stock-holders are holding zero dividend stock.  In fact, the stock probably will decrease by 10 to 30 percent because of the dismal economic trend.

Deflation occurred in the 2008/2009 period....where houses were dumped at a high rate.  

Some people would say this is a great period for individuals with cash in their hand....they can get a product or item at great value, for less money.  If you don't have money at this point, then there's not much reason to celebrate.  If you are holding the product with zero profit, you aren't that happy.  

With Germans preoccupied presently with spiraling upward natural gas prices....where your monthly payment went from 85-to-100 Euro....upwards to 400-to-500 Euro, deflation is underway.

You will cover the extra 4,000 to 5,000 Euro in cost by raiding your vacation account for 2023, or the money you set aside for a new car in 2023, or pulling the savings for new living room furniture you had planned....covering the heating cost.

So in the spring of 2023, the Germans will be hearing deflation a great deal.  

You will find car companies literally begging for you to buy a car at pure cost.  You will find cruise trips valued at half-price.  Cellphone prices?  Dropping like a rock.  Breweries offering 30-percent off if you buy an entire pallet of beer.  

Here's the thing, unless this escalation of natural gas prices is halted....the period of worry goes beyond summer of 2023, and into the summer of 2024.  

Stocks would drop like a rock.  Retirees would worry over their savings.  Vacation resorts would fret over lack of guests.  Pubs would be begging for customers to return.  

Prepare for the daily mention of deflation, and political folks at some bitter situation where they can't resolve problems without creating bigger problems down the road.  

The Thing About 1943

 After the battle of Stalingrad ended in February of 1943, with a surrender of the German Army at that front, there is a period of three to five months where the German generals have a new reality to confront....the war is lost.

By November of 1943, around Berlin, if you quizzed any of the generals, it was a dismal view of what was coming.  

In recent days with the Russian retreat in the Ukraine, I think the Russian general staff back in Moscow are looking at the map, their remaining assets and viewing things in a different manner.  

Maybe Putin's vision was some victory with occupation of Ukraine as a 'reward' (like the 2014 event with the Crimea).  At this point, the lost assets and manpower....along with dismal military demonstrations of power....probably give a bad feeling to the generals.  Rebuilding?  It could take twenty years.  

I won't say there's lost confidence in Putin, but there's a lot of 1943 history weighing on the mind of the Russian generals at this point.  

Three German News Stories

 1.  In the last couple of days, the German federal government took possession of three properties/refineries owned by the Rosneft company (Russian operation).  

The term of expropriation came up.  In legal terms....thats where a state has taken a property (legally) and you have to compensate the loss to the company.  

I should note here, in the midst of this chatter....Rosneft quickly stood up and said since they weren't in charge of the refineries now....they couldn't swear the place was 'safe'.  I won't suggest things are bad off, but it would make you question why they uttered the comment.  

Cost factor, if taken into court?  Well...almost everyone in the journalism trade has avoided giving a value to the refineries.  It wouldn't shock me if Rosneft said they were valued at 1-billion Euro or more.  Court to decide this?  Probably, but it won't be ended in 2022 or 2023. 

2.  Lot of chatter for short-time work for business operations affected by the natural gas pricing escalation.  

Short-time means you have a full-time employee but don't have the work for him to be there, so he might only work 10 to 20 hours a week.  In this situation, the government would make up most (not all) of the missing money. It's designed for 12 months though.  

The general belief?  More gas will appear in 2023, and the lessening of prices would occur.  My belief in this?  I'm skeptical that the pricing will decrease to 'normal'.

3.  For the week, a lot of chatter over Russian tanks left behind as they retreated in the Ukraine (lack of fuel).  As much as the Ukrainians were critical of the Germans not handing them tanks.....they've made up for the German position.