Tuesday, September 27, 2022

Nord Stream I and II Blown Up?

 Facts at this point?

Both Russia-to-German natural gas pipelines were blown up in the past 36 hours.  Location?  Nord Stream I was blown up around 20 miles NE of the island of Bornholm (Denmark).  Nord Stream II was blown up around 10 mile SE of the island of Bornholm.  Time difference?  Around 15 hours apart.  

Confidence of a bomb?  Danes have undersea monitors and they rate it near a 90-percent level that both were blown up.

Culprits?  It could be any of a dozen folks.  Russian military, Russian Oligarch folks, Chinese, Ukrainians, etc.  Via social media.....some guy even suggested aliens (probably a humor suggestion).

Bombs rigged-up and could have been placed in position a month ago?  That's a possibility as well.  

Nord Stream II having never pumped an ounce of natural gas?  True.  

Nord Stream II having been turned mostly off in the past three weeks by the Russians.....to put pressure on Germany?  True.  

So the big question....a big deal?  Well....based on reserves in place, and a assumption of a mild or regular winter.....there's enough natural gas in Germany to make it through the winter.  Beyond that....there's still gas coming from Norway, and soon via the LNG port being built in Hamburg (starts late December).  

However, this brings up the issue....if they blew up the Nord Stream I and II....wouldn't they go after the Norway pipe as well, and perhaps try to blow up the LNG port before the first docking?  Probably so.  In that scenario.....all hell would break loose, and it would intensify the German attitude that 'something' has to be done. 

The odds that the Russians did absolutely nothing, and it's some other group?  I'd say it's better than a 50-percent chance.  Presently, they act like this was sabotage and not something in their masterplan.  Course, some Oligarch crew might have planned something like this, as pay-back for past behavior.  

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