1. On eagerness to participate or demonstrate combat capabilities after two weeks of boot-camp....I'd say that no more than 50-percent are hyped-up and thrilled to be there. The rest are shaking their head, with a quarter of them probably thinking they won't survive the next 100 days.
So my first prediction, as the first 10,000 are organized into a Corps....some guy gets a promotion to General, with a dozen guys getting a promotion to Colonel, and a bunch of new Captains dumped into the middle of this. A month into the history of this 1st Corps....more than 5,000 are dead or wounded.
2. As you get to the 50,000 level of new Conscripts in the front.....new guys begin to discover that they are getting ill-fitting uniforms (just one issue), and almost no winter/harsh weather gear. The uniforms are all Chinese-made and made of sub-standard material, with even the helmets issued being of marginal quality (no better than a bicycle helmet).
3. Each new 'battle-brigade' (supposed to be a blend of infantry and tanks/APCs).....will only have two tanks (both of a 1960s production history). These brigades will be designed as weak-enough.....to go into battle and fail in their first 72 hours of combat.
4. As some new Conscripts arrive at the front, they kill their commanders....advance to the Ukrainians with a white-flag and offer to surrender. A hub will be developed to bring the Russians in.....offer them conditions in Germany, and they will quietly leave the military. Some analysts will say by December that more than 10,000 Russians have accepted surrender as the only way out of the mess.
5. Depression and negative attitudes will 'bloom' by Christmas, as the reservists shake their head over marginal food, no winter gear, and incompetence demonstrated by their officers. Stories will exist suggesting more than 300 of the Wagner mercenaries killed by the Conscripts.
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