The 260,000 Number Story

 There's a Russian story going around today......that in the past week....260,000 Russian young men left the country to avoid being 'activated' or 'drafted'.  

BS-factor?  I originally gave it a '8' (one to ten).

The problem here is that the comment started from someone within the FSB (former KGB).  

How this plays out?  Twice a year, the Russians hold a draft, and men are drafted into service as conscripts.  It would occur in the early spring and early fall.  So if you went and chatted on how many men left in the past six months.....knowing their 'ticket' would come up sooner or later, the 260,000 number probably reflects those who left and who are NOT reservists.  

The necessity of closing off the border?  This now comes up and makes one wonder if this imminent closure (perhaps this weekend) is more related to preventing massive problems for this fall draft, and the upcoming draft in spring of 2023.  

Is there an infinite number of young men to draft from?  The current arrangement is two drafts a year....spring and fall....each with around 130,000, who serve 12 months and then are on a reservist list for several years.

Russians will generally say that normal 'boot-camp' is 30 days, then a secondary 30-day period comes up with the unit (you might as well call it unit-training where you go out with the vehicles in some practice range....firing the rifles).  Lately?  The group who went into the Ukraine early this year?  Most suggest they spent around a week in boot-camp, and went direct to the 'front' of the war.

So back to the 260,000 number?  BS?  If you asked me about the smarter guys seeing the future back in March and April....I might agree that probably 100,000 have definitely packed and left.  But this brings up the odd topic....are the border guys or airport folks actually counting folks as they leave?  If they did.....then the FSB might have insight, and see the 260,000 number existing.

If it were true?  Personally, I'd be worried now about 18-year-old guys who survived being picked this time, but would come up in spring of 2023.  Yeah, they might be prioritizing their life, and figuring 'escape' to Europe or Turkey might be a better deal.    

The fact that young men of the correct age group may not exist, and activating the reservists is the only way to fill the ranks and allow the current conscripts to leave for home in January of 2023.