Downward Trend of Urbanization Coming

 There is a case going through the German court system (up to the Federal Constitutional Court) over a serious matter.  

The challenge?  There is a particulate matter situation brewing where in four cities (Frankfurt, Munich, Dusseldorf, and Berlin) the EU standard value is exceeded.  So there are seven individuals suing the cities, and trying to force significant clean air regulation upon the public.....in the interest of their health.

All of this involving nitrogen oxide?  Yeah....meaning diesel vehicles in the mix.

Worst case scenario?  Massive traffic limitations on entry into these cities, and a rapid change in business or industry existing in these cities.  It probably would take twenty years, but various industry and commerce operations would be forced to re-think their operation within the city limits of the four cities, and 'industry-exodus' would start to occur.  Translation?  In roughly 20 years, you'd see enough movement that the population would leave the urban areas with the industry and commerce.  A shrinkage of population would eventually occur.

The problem with this discussion (I'll use Frankfurt as my example).....there are various parts of town which aren't really affected by the particulate matter and nitrogen oxide, meaning those areas aren't issues.  The court will eventually reach a point where they gaze at the maps provided and ask stupid questions.  Whether these folks in the court action live in the affected areas or not.....will then come up.

My best guess?  I think the court will side with the challenge, and force the sixteen states to write regulations (figure a year minimum), which will then be translated down to various cities, and some kind of no-entry regulation will be drafted.  At that point, the industry side of these urban areas will say 'enough' and look for property fifty kilometers beyond the town.  

Living in Frankfurt or Berlin for the sake of your job?  Why?  If the industry, or company moved an hour beyond the city.....you will eventually sell your property and exit the city, for the sake of the job.  

At that moment, a new reality will hit city councils as they realize their urban growth has hit 'peak' performance.  It won't be a pretty thing to view the approaching decades and how regulation changed the attraction of the major cities.