Based on the weekend events....the whole war is now evolving, and it's not to Russia's advantage anymore. So my five views on future events:
1. Surprisingly enough....this has not been a air-war....where tons of bombs were dropped on Kiev to level a part of the city.
Why? Anyone's guess. Maybe everyone's belief in airpower in Russia is marginal.
2. This chatter/rumor of a ammo shortage occurring by the end of 2022? I might give it some BS rating, but it's entirely possible that this war has to conclude in some way over the next hundred days because of the shortage.
3. Blame-game going on between the Russian generals? You see different signs of this, and it's obvious that they've used up all of the potential ideas with Plan 'A', Plan 'B', and Plan 'C'.
Within their own circles, I think they are embarrassed about the results, and the inability to end the war.
4. The Crimea problem? Well....at any day now, I expect the Ukrainian Army to turn south and set into motion some rapid escalation, and in a matter of ten days....take the Crimea back into their possession (Russian control since 2014).
Society on the Crimea being mostly Russian? Yeah, and it'd mean a massive public evacuation to occur....with Russian troops at the head of the escape route.
5. Finally, no one talks of the Duma (the Russian Parliament) and their gut-feelings. I think if you took a poll....more than half would express some feeling that the war is not in their advantage anymore, and Putin needs to retire. Saying this in some public setting? No.
If Putin did go? I suspect there would be a temp-guy to step up....run the country until the next election cycle, and a massive effort to end the war would be the top priority. All of this....leading to sanctions ending? Yeah.....it's even possible that all of this would occur by Christmas, with Nord Stream I turned on, and Germans all happy over the turn in events.
No comments:
Post a Comment