It's a headline on N24 this afternoon.....Russia has some desire to set up talks with the Ukraine.
What's on the table? For the Russians....I'm guessing they want a geographic area on the far eastern side of the Ukraine...probably the Mariupol/Donetsk region (an L-shaped 150 x 200 miles region), probably being allowed to keep military forces in the region, and Ukraine to be demilitarized.
The Ukraine? Presently with taking back territory....I don't think they want to talk Mariupol/Donetsk, and demilitarizing is a non-starting point. I'd also wager that war crimes are on the table with more than 1,000 Russian officers/conscripts potentially being charged. Probably several of the Moscow generals are on the list as well.
Then you have the damages done....into the several hundred billion Euro.
I'd also wager that Putin is in a mindset to just get untangled, and would accept 'something' out of the list, except war crimes.
But here's the thing....if you just started talking and just arranged for Russian troops to leave.....then the whole sanctions thing ends overnight (lets say in 10 days).
If you were a pro-Putin guy in Russia.....seeing an end, without any territory gain, a thousand Russian tanks destroyed, and probably over 50,000 conscripts dead....how would you feel about the 'special operation' and the Nazis?
Would the Ukrainians demand Putin step down as part of the talks? I could see them slipping this on the table and Putin just laughing over the idea.
So why engage in talks? I think between the lacking ammo/shell situation, the Nazi bluff that was a joke, and sanctions.....there's nothing much of value to be gained anymore. Taking Kiev was never going to occur, and there's way too much interest in getting to an end-point within Russian society.
Putin having a 'glorious' victory speech prepared for almost a year? Yeah, I'd imagine he's got a sixteen minute speech prepared and have medals for the generals....ready to go.
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