I noticed this got brought up in the German news today....chatting on the evil nature of parents taking the kids two or three days prior to summer vacation periods, and leaving for their destination. It's reached some stage where teachers are talking about 'consequences' and cops are talking about fines (up to 1,500 Euro).
So the whole deal?
Every German state has a different schedule, and they are all aiming on concluding tests approximately two weeks prior to X-day (meaning a Friday), then on Monday....roughly five to six weeks will pass by with summer vacation.
Here's the thing, you find all kinds of vacation and airline deals for the week prior to X-day, and then everything goes to max-cost for that six week period.
Parents grasp all of this and try to remove their kid and leave on the Wed or Thur prior to the X-day. If they go through their regional airport, there's the possibility of cops being there.
What happens in that final two weeks of school? NOTHING. You can go and ask every single kid and they will tell you that this two week period is worthless. They go on outings, field-trips, or sport-days. There are NO tests in the final two weeks.....all of those are concluded already.
Getting the authorities or teachers to admit that they are wasting the two weeks? It'll never happen.
If you gaze over the newspapers.....a handful of cop confrontations will occur, and folks are standing at the airport with the kids and being told that the kid can't continue the trip unless you get 'permission'.
All of this is pushing the game a bit more where you make the decision to use the train or drive to some out-of-country airport to leave on your big trip. In a way, it's pretty silly, but it's the amount of rules that boggles the mind.
Saturday, June 30, 2018
A Little Plastic Story
Back in the fall of 1992, I arrived at Bitburg Air Base, and as part of the introduction briefings....they brought the recycling manager for the base up for a 20-minute chat.
When I left in 1985....there was no real emphasis by the German government on recycling. They were talking about it, but little else. So in this period of seven years....things changed.
All over the base, they had paper cans....plastic cans....bio cans....and regular garbage cans. In fact, to prevent people from dumping in the wrong cans....they actually had to chained up and only authorized individuals could dump into the cans. I know....this got to a point of stupidity.
It was a fairly uncomplicated recycling program, but it was direct....YOU WILL participate, was the guidance given.
So he opened up the floor to questions. Some guy in the group asked....are you actually recycling 100-percent of what you collect.
There was this 10-second pause. It's a German guy, and you could tell that he wanted to be truthful.
Well....no, as hard as they try....with tons and tons of paper and plastic.....they simply couldn't get the system to recycle ALL of what was being collected.
Well, asked the young guy from the audience....how much was recycled?
The German figured off the top of his head (remember, this was little Bitburg, way out in the middle of nowhere), that at best, they were recycling about 40-percent of paper and plastic. The rest was being buried in a location where it could be retrieved later for real recycling, when it 'caught up'.
I sat there for several minutes....contemplating this massive mess across Germany and the amount of political coverage involved, and at best....they could only recycle 40-percent of what was collected.
Years have passed.
I noticed about four years ago....folks were now hyping up all the plastic in the oceans. The news media was in great turmoil....it was a terrible thing. At that point, I was asking myself.....how did the plastic get into the oceans.
I noticed this morning via Watts Up, an environmentalist page, that they got around to analyzing the problem of plastic and where it came from. What they say is that for a decade or more....European countries have been busy shipping plastic collected....out of Europe, and toward Asia. There, some business front would recycle the plastic.
Well, the analysts are suggesting that the plastic isn't really making it the full way, and that some folks are just dumping the plastic in the ocean. Yep, that's a shocker.
My general belief is that at some point in the 1990s....the environmentalists in Germany put enough pressure on city governments that they had to 'recycle', and that some folks came and said they had people in Asia who would do this. The deal was made up through various communities and urbanized regions of Germany and throughout Europe....pay folks to ship the plastic off, and it'd be recycled elsewhere. No one, in my humble belief, asked questions.
Some of this stuff did make into China, but I think they ran into the same problem....there just isn't some major recycling industry existing to handle ALL plastic.
So now you have journalists and scientists all hyped up about mountains of plastic in the Pacific and they need to invent some fake story.....to ensure the public doesn't figure out that they were the ones who made this big mess in such a creative way.
When I left in 1985....there was no real emphasis by the German government on recycling. They were talking about it, but little else. So in this period of seven years....things changed.
All over the base, they had paper cans....plastic cans....bio cans....and regular garbage cans. In fact, to prevent people from dumping in the wrong cans....they actually had to chained up and only authorized individuals could dump into the cans. I know....this got to a point of stupidity.
It was a fairly uncomplicated recycling program, but it was direct....YOU WILL participate, was the guidance given.
So he opened up the floor to questions. Some guy in the group asked....are you actually recycling 100-percent of what you collect.
There was this 10-second pause. It's a German guy, and you could tell that he wanted to be truthful.
Well....no, as hard as they try....with tons and tons of paper and plastic.....they simply couldn't get the system to recycle ALL of what was being collected.
Well, asked the young guy from the audience....how much was recycled?
The German figured off the top of his head (remember, this was little Bitburg, way out in the middle of nowhere), that at best, they were recycling about 40-percent of paper and plastic. The rest was being buried in a location where it could be retrieved later for real recycling, when it 'caught up'.
I sat there for several minutes....contemplating this massive mess across Germany and the amount of political coverage involved, and at best....they could only recycle 40-percent of what was collected.
Years have passed.
I noticed about four years ago....folks were now hyping up all the plastic in the oceans. The news media was in great turmoil....it was a terrible thing. At that point, I was asking myself.....how did the plastic get into the oceans.
I noticed this morning via Watts Up, an environmentalist page, that they got around to analyzing the problem of plastic and where it came from. What they say is that for a decade or more....European countries have been busy shipping plastic collected....out of Europe, and toward Asia. There, some business front would recycle the plastic.
Well, the analysts are suggesting that the plastic isn't really making it the full way, and that some folks are just dumping the plastic in the ocean. Yep, that's a shocker.
My general belief is that at some point in the 1990s....the environmentalists in Germany put enough pressure on city governments that they had to 'recycle', and that some folks came and said they had people in Asia who would do this. The deal was made up through various communities and urbanized regions of Germany and throughout Europe....pay folks to ship the plastic off, and it'd be recycled elsewhere. No one, in my humble belief, asked questions.
Some of this stuff did make into China, but I think they ran into the same problem....there just isn't some major recycling industry existing to handle ALL plastic.
So now you have journalists and scientists all hyped up about mountains of plastic in the Pacific and they need to invent some fake story.....to ensure the public doesn't figure out that they were the ones who made this big mess in such a creative way.
Friday, June 29, 2018
Integration Story
Today, I wrapped up the 100 hour German integration course. I'm officially integrated. So I'll make ten observations:
1. As far as the book and the instructor are concerned....as the folks in charge of the concept....history for Germany started in 1914, and ends in this current year. There's virtually no mention of the Roman period, the Thirty Years War, or Kaiser Wilhelm I. Yep....roughly 2,000 years of history missing. But to be honest, how would do this with such a limited number of hours?
2. The explanation of the EU? Done over approximately three hours. My view of the others in the class (the Syrians, the Iraqis, etc)? Most don't see a big need to connect the EU into Germany. To them, it just complicates matters. I tend to see and agree with them on that.
3. Geography is a major point of the class. You'd be surprised over how many 'new' people had issues in grasping the 16 states, the border countries and cities in Hessen. Maybe it's just a non-European thing, or they never thought about it.
4. There is a full-up test at the conclusion, but because this is in summer.....they can't give us the stupid test until the late part of August. How much will be forgotten by then? Maybe a quarter.
5. Would I have used Professor Clark's video material from Cambridge University? Yes. History-wise, he does a 10-star introduction program and it can't be beat.
6. The word 'dictator' probably got mentioned by the instructor at least 400 times over the 100 hour course. Yes, it was a bit too much.
7. They actually give you a listing of the 300-odd questions used in the big test at the end. Question by question....it's all right there. So if you memorize the listing, you pass easily.
8. How much of DDR (the former East Germany) is in the test and class? Way too much. I think on questions alone, there's at least forty questions that deal with DDR. At one point, they want you to memorize what the DDR flag looks like but frankly.....95-percent of Germans will tell you that this is way too stupid to remember this stuff. The need to know what the DDR's financial planning agency was named? Really, do I need to know about an agency that has been non-existent for thirty years?
9. Getting the concept of the Wall across to the students? Some of these folks were born in 2000 era, so it's ancient history to them. Just mentioning Helmet Kohl.....who hasn't been Chancellor in 25 years, is a bit difficult.
10. The instructor? She actually did a decent job....although a bit overly dramatic at times (she might have done well with Tennessee William's Cat On a Hot Tin Roof). The thing is that you have to get across to a bunch of foreign adults....some element of German history, government and culture, and let's be honest here.....it can be rather 'dry'.
My last comment.....if you posed this question list to most Germans (over the age of 50).....they'd fail. That's my humble opinion.
1. As far as the book and the instructor are concerned....as the folks in charge of the concept....history for Germany started in 1914, and ends in this current year. There's virtually no mention of the Roman period, the Thirty Years War, or Kaiser Wilhelm I. Yep....roughly 2,000 years of history missing. But to be honest, how would do this with such a limited number of hours?
2. The explanation of the EU? Done over approximately three hours. My view of the others in the class (the Syrians, the Iraqis, etc)? Most don't see a big need to connect the EU into Germany. To them, it just complicates matters. I tend to see and agree with them on that.
3. Geography is a major point of the class. You'd be surprised over how many 'new' people had issues in grasping the 16 states, the border countries and cities in Hessen. Maybe it's just a non-European thing, or they never thought about it.
4. There is a full-up test at the conclusion, but because this is in summer.....they can't give us the stupid test until the late part of August. How much will be forgotten by then? Maybe a quarter.
5. Would I have used Professor Clark's video material from Cambridge University? Yes. History-wise, he does a 10-star introduction program and it can't be beat.
6. The word 'dictator' probably got mentioned by the instructor at least 400 times over the 100 hour course. Yes, it was a bit too much.
7. They actually give you a listing of the 300-odd questions used in the big test at the end. Question by question....it's all right there. So if you memorize the listing, you pass easily.
8. How much of DDR (the former East Germany) is in the test and class? Way too much. I think on questions alone, there's at least forty questions that deal with DDR. At one point, they want you to memorize what the DDR flag looks like but frankly.....95-percent of Germans will tell you that this is way too stupid to remember this stuff. The need to know what the DDR's financial planning agency was named? Really, do I need to know about an agency that has been non-existent for thirty years?
9. Getting the concept of the Wall across to the students? Some of these folks were born in 2000 era, so it's ancient history to them. Just mentioning Helmet Kohl.....who hasn't been Chancellor in 25 years, is a bit difficult.
10. The instructor? She actually did a decent job....although a bit overly dramatic at times (she might have done well with Tennessee William's Cat On a Hot Tin Roof). The thing is that you have to get across to a bunch of foreign adults....some element of German history, government and culture, and let's be honest here.....it can be rather 'dry'.
My last comment.....if you posed this question list to most Germans (over the age of 50).....they'd fail. That's my humble opinion.
Thursday, June 28, 2018
The Technology Story
This came up in German news yesterday, and it's one of those page three items that most people will just skip and not take note of.
So, about every single week in Germany....some German on a bicycle, in some village, town or city....pulls up in the bike lane to a red-light (four-way intersection), and a truck pulls up. The truck is going to turn right. He signals this. The bike guy doesn't move. The guy in the truck is making the turn and his vehicle/trailer is going to 'swipe' the bike, and in most cases....bring great harm to the bicyclist. In the majority of cases, the bicyclist is likely to die.
If you'd gone and examined this thirty years ago in Germany.....it likely happened on a very rare basis, and it's more often now because so many people want to bicycle to work.
So this has been turned into a political topic.
The Transportation Ministry says that they've got a developmental project with a sensor-like device that they are working on.....that you'd hang on the side of the truck and just stop the vehicle when it got within a certain distance (I'm guessing half-a-meter) of the bicyclist.
So the political hype (made by a Green Party guy) is that they want a mandatory EU 'rule', or a minimum of a German 'rule' that says all trucks must have this sensor.
Cost? Unknown. That's the funny thing. You would imagine that someone would put a cost factor to this. There would have to be installation costs, developmental costs, and it probably would be a minimum of 500 Euro a truck. So this might get into the billions category.
But the question is....what if you just stopped all bicycle lanes 10 meters short of the red-light? Yeah, just forcing the bicyclist to halt way before the light, and allow the driver to proceed with no threat, well....you'd save tons of money, without all the technology.
Will they proceed on and make this a EU requirement? My guess is that it'll slowly drift around and in three years....become a mandatory item on trucks and buses. The sad thing is that you could have fixed this more easily.
So, about every single week in Germany....some German on a bicycle, in some village, town or city....pulls up in the bike lane to a red-light (four-way intersection), and a truck pulls up. The truck is going to turn right. He signals this. The bike guy doesn't move. The guy in the truck is making the turn and his vehicle/trailer is going to 'swipe' the bike, and in most cases....bring great harm to the bicyclist. In the majority of cases, the bicyclist is likely to die.
If you'd gone and examined this thirty years ago in Germany.....it likely happened on a very rare basis, and it's more often now because so many people want to bicycle to work.
So this has been turned into a political topic.
The Transportation Ministry says that they've got a developmental project with a sensor-like device that they are working on.....that you'd hang on the side of the truck and just stop the vehicle when it got within a certain distance (I'm guessing half-a-meter) of the bicyclist.
So the political hype (made by a Green Party guy) is that they want a mandatory EU 'rule', or a minimum of a German 'rule' that says all trucks must have this sensor.
Cost? Unknown. That's the funny thing. You would imagine that someone would put a cost factor to this. There would have to be installation costs, developmental costs, and it probably would be a minimum of 500 Euro a truck. So this might get into the billions category.
But the question is....what if you just stopped all bicycle lanes 10 meters short of the red-light? Yeah, just forcing the bicyclist to halt way before the light, and allow the driver to proceed with no threat, well....you'd save tons of money, without all the technology.
Will they proceed on and make this a EU requirement? My guess is that it'll slowly drift around and in three years....become a mandatory item on trucks and buses. The sad thing is that you could have fixed this more easily.
Wolf Story
For a number of months, the pro-wolf lobbyists have been hard at work to convince Germans that wolves are fine animals and there just aren't any attacks on humans.
Well....in the Focus (news magazine of Germany) of this morning....I noticed the short shory of a wolf attack in Poland....two kids attacked, and dispatched to a local hospital....later, released. It was in a mountainous or hilly area. Later, some hunter came along to hunt the wolf and killed it.
The general problem is that wolves have a certain list of things on their 'dinner-plate' which they'd normally hunt. Some kid might come along (small in size) and appeal to the wolf's desires....an easy prey. For some reason, I think the pro-wolf lobbyists will face up to more and more challenges as time goes by.
Well....in the Focus (news magazine of Germany) of this morning....I noticed the short shory of a wolf attack in Poland....two kids attacked, and dispatched to a local hospital....later, released. It was in a mountainous or hilly area. Later, some hunter came along to hunt the wolf and killed it.
The general problem is that wolves have a certain list of things on their 'dinner-plate' which they'd normally hunt. Some kid might come along (small in size) and appeal to the wolf's desires....an easy prey. For some reason, I think the pro-wolf lobbyists will face up to more and more challenges as time goes by.
Wednesday, June 27, 2018
Local Story
So I was going over local Wiesbaden news today, and there's this 12-line story.
If you remember back a month ago....I spoke to the murder episode of the Mainz teenage girl, and the 20-year old Iraqi migrant guy. Cops followed the trail.....guy escaped to Iraq....Kurd cops release the guy to come back....charges pending.
In the days after the murder, cops didn't have much of a trail, and this guy took five members of his family (mom and day.....brothers) and escaped back through Turkey.....to Iraq.
Well.....political folks in Wiesbaden say that they've heard (via Iraqi news) that the family intends to return to Germany....to be near the son/brother.
The CDU head political guy in town? He says this is totally unacceptable. The family left, and the re-entry will not be allowed. He even cited the fact that they said for two years.....they were under a threat in Iraq, and yet this is where they ran quickly into.
The other story is that the younger brother of the guy has said he is definitely coming back to Germany. The statement kinda indicates he thinks the system won't prevent him from re-entry.
It's hard to say how this goes.
My guess is that they might get into Turkey and find that the visa business prevents them from further travels. Using the smuggler route? It's entirely possible.
The thing I noticed is that the two younger brothers were noted for the past year or two with issues in snatch-and-go crimes in Wiesbaden. I think the cops would prefer that neither of them return.
If you remember back a month ago....I spoke to the murder episode of the Mainz teenage girl, and the 20-year old Iraqi migrant guy. Cops followed the trail.....guy escaped to Iraq....Kurd cops release the guy to come back....charges pending.
In the days after the murder, cops didn't have much of a trail, and this guy took five members of his family (mom and day.....brothers) and escaped back through Turkey.....to Iraq.
Well.....political folks in Wiesbaden say that they've heard (via Iraqi news) that the family intends to return to Germany....to be near the son/brother.
The CDU head political guy in town? He says this is totally unacceptable. The family left, and the re-entry will not be allowed. He even cited the fact that they said for two years.....they were under a threat in Iraq, and yet this is where they ran quickly into.
The other story is that the younger brother of the guy has said he is definitely coming back to Germany. The statement kinda indicates he thinks the system won't prevent him from re-entry.
It's hard to say how this goes.
My guess is that they might get into Turkey and find that the visa business prevents them from further travels. Using the smuggler route? It's entirely possible.
The thing I noticed is that the two younger brothers were noted for the past year or two with issues in snatch-and-go crimes in Wiesbaden. I think the cops would prefer that neither of them return.
A Little Bit of History Today
Someone in Germany wrote a piece that talked over 1976 German situation where the CSU at that time....talked over a serious attempt to walk out of the relationship with the CDU. At the time, Helmet Kohl was the Interior Minister of Germany, and a big-name player in events to come in the 1980s with the CDU.
Kohl.....did something fairly unique in 1976 politics. He told the CSU....that they (the CDU) would stage an attempt to put the CDU into the Bavarian election, and it would likely put them (the CSU) into a vote-loss situation. Over a short period of time, the CSU reviewed the Kohl theat and backed-off.
The message in this short history piece is that the CDU could again threaten to get into Bavarian politics if the CSU tries to end the relationship.
I sat and pondered over that history.
There are three elements which don't match up well in this piece of history.
First, Chancellor Merkel and the next level of CDU 'princes'....aren't Helmet Kohl type political figures. Most of them....can't even stand in his shadow.
Second, in the 1976 era, the CSU didn't really have a topic to drive the wedge....unlike today where coalition government migration and immigration policy is unanchored and drifting as national topics.
Third, the CSU of today knows it doesn't need national newspapers or the public TV networks (ARD, ZDF) to bring their message to the public. They can easily go the Trump way and use social media to avoid journalists.
The journalists in Germany are hyped to convey the message that the CSU walk-out won't occur. This is all a play-act scene that Seehofer has created to see how far Merkel can be pushed, and if the SPD can be forced on the hand of a new election.
The problem I see with this entire scenario is that everyone from the CDU and SPD....are absolutely against a coalition failure and having to call for a new election. It would basically create a wave, after wave of unintended consequences for both major parties.
So my view is this....Seehofer saw this as a 'playground' attempt for him to go and slug two bigger kids (Merkel and Nahles), and he found that they had to stand there and take the punches. He's gone back and slugged them a couple of times, and they really seem to be capable of accepting the punches. He'll continue this playground 'game', until they slug back. I might go and question if either are capable of slugging him back. I might even go and suggest that the CDU and SPD are so marginal in terms of Kohl-like leadership....that Seehofer isn't that worried about the situation.
Kohl.....did something fairly unique in 1976 politics. He told the CSU....that they (the CDU) would stage an attempt to put the CDU into the Bavarian election, and it would likely put them (the CSU) into a vote-loss situation. Over a short period of time, the CSU reviewed the Kohl theat and backed-off.
The message in this short history piece is that the CDU could again threaten to get into Bavarian politics if the CSU tries to end the relationship.
I sat and pondered over that history.
There are three elements which don't match up well in this piece of history.
First, Chancellor Merkel and the next level of CDU 'princes'....aren't Helmet Kohl type political figures. Most of them....can't even stand in his shadow.
Second, in the 1976 era, the CSU didn't really have a topic to drive the wedge....unlike today where coalition government migration and immigration policy is unanchored and drifting as national topics.
Third, the CSU of today knows it doesn't need national newspapers or the public TV networks (ARD, ZDF) to bring their message to the public. They can easily go the Trump way and use social media to avoid journalists.
The journalists in Germany are hyped to convey the message that the CSU walk-out won't occur. This is all a play-act scene that Seehofer has created to see how far Merkel can be pushed, and if the SPD can be forced on the hand of a new election.
The problem I see with this entire scenario is that everyone from the CDU and SPD....are absolutely against a coalition failure and having to call for a new election. It would basically create a wave, after wave of unintended consequences for both major parties.
So my view is this....Seehofer saw this as a 'playground' attempt for him to go and slug two bigger kids (Merkel and Nahles), and he found that they had to stand there and take the punches. He's gone back and slugged them a couple of times, and they really seem to be capable of accepting the punches. He'll continue this playground 'game', until they slug back. I might go and question if either are capable of slugging him back. I might even go and suggest that the CDU and SPD are so marginal in terms of Kohl-like leadership....that Seehofer isn't that worried about the situation.
This EU Refugee Center Idea
It got brought up today via a short piece on ARD (Channel One of German public TV).....Albania's Prime Minister in an interview.....just flat out said 'no', there would not be some EU refugee center operating in Albania.
It was a fairly direct comment and I won't go into long details over it.
So the search is on....the EU wants some place where a camp could be set up and 'problem-people' could be sent while waiting on their home-country to accept them.
I have my doubts that any place within the EU will be found. The Greeks might eventually to offer 'something', with an enormous price-tag attached to it (maybe 5-billion Euro a year in cash is my humble guess).
Would the EU pay it? It's awful hard to say their willingness factor on the amount of money it might cost.
The thing is that the Greeks have literally dozens of islands sitting out there.....some small in nature, and I could see a four-by-two kilometer island being staged for 10,000 people to sit and wait for their 'walking papers'. The pro-asylum folks won't accept that type of situation though, and this will all be just idle chit-chat.
It was a fairly direct comment and I won't go into long details over it.
So the search is on....the EU wants some place where a camp could be set up and 'problem-people' could be sent while waiting on their home-country to accept them.
I have my doubts that any place within the EU will be found. The Greeks might eventually to offer 'something', with an enormous price-tag attached to it (maybe 5-billion Euro a year in cash is my humble guess).
Would the EU pay it? It's awful hard to say their willingness factor on the amount of money it might cost.
The thing is that the Greeks have literally dozens of islands sitting out there.....some small in nature, and I could see a four-by-two kilometer island being staged for 10,000 people to sit and wait for their 'walking papers'. The pro-asylum folks won't accept that type of situation though, and this will all be just idle chit-chat.
Austrian Political Chat Story
I noticed this coming up today via Focus (the German news magazine). The story goes this way.....the Austrian public TV network, the Austrian Broadcasting Corporation....wrote up a draft regulation.
It is not final, but it basically says that employees of the network.....public TV mind you....would be forbidden from talking on social media (meaning Facebook) on political topics.
Why? The ORF director basically said that it's a necessity to guarantee "objectivity, impartiality and independence" of the network.
No one says in any factual way, but there is some hind that the trustees board, which are appointed to monitor and ensure a fairness to public TV.....are the ones who drove this.
Hyper over the draft? Well......some folks say the journalists are fairly angry.
There were three elections in 2016 and 2017 within Austria, and I suspect that the trustees sat and viewed a number of personalized agendas by reporters, and just sat there asking themselves how far they'd allow them to take this commentary (even in private social media).
The problem I see is that even here in Germany.....this draft idea might be discussed and pushed to some degree here.
It is not final, but it basically says that employees of the network.....public TV mind you....would be forbidden from talking on social media (meaning Facebook) on political topics.
Why? The ORF director basically said that it's a necessity to guarantee "objectivity, impartiality and independence" of the network.
No one says in any factual way, but there is some hind that the trustees board, which are appointed to monitor and ensure a fairness to public TV.....are the ones who drove this.
Hyper over the draft? Well......some folks say the journalists are fairly angry.
There were three elections in 2016 and 2017 within Austria, and I suspect that the trustees sat and viewed a number of personalized agendas by reporters, and just sat there asking themselves how far they'd allow them to take this commentary (even in private social media).
The problem I see is that even here in Germany.....this draft idea might be discussed and pushed to some degree here.
It's Just Odd
Ever since Trump came out chatting over increased crime in Germany, the German news media has been busy denying increased crime. It is almost a daily hype.
Yet, oddly enough, about a year ago....the national government ordered up hiring another 10,000 extra cops. Yep....one group says crime is down....the other hires more cops.
It is like you saying that you have no mold problem in the basement, but hiring a mold team to a 5k Euro project in the basement. Something here does not add up. Maybe Germans just like seeing lots of cops roaming the streets with BMW cars.
Yet, oddly enough, about a year ago....the national government ordered up hiring another 10,000 extra cops. Yep....one group says crime is down....the other hires more cops.
It is like you saying that you have no mold problem in the basement, but hiring a mold team to a 5k Euro project in the basement. Something here does not add up. Maybe Germans just like seeing lots of cops roaming the streets with BMW cars.
Monday, June 25, 2018
Knifing Story
My wife works for a small company that operates out of Mainz. About two months ago, they went and hired a new guy (young guy in his mid-20's) to be the advertising and marketing guy.
This past weekend, this guy and a couple of friends went out to a local fest in Mainz (they have a lot of them throughout the year).
Drunk migrant guy appears in front of the group.....has the perception that some insult or criticism was uttered....pulls a knife and attempted to stab this new employee. Kid used his arm and it took the blunt of this attack. Attacker then runs off. Ambulance called and the young guy is Ok, but will likely require some surgery.
Attacker? Cops put out a report, but I'd have doubts that you ever see or hear about this guy again.
The thing about events like this....it gets out and convinces people that it's just not safe in public places or in these German events. Twenty years ago, you just didn't worry about knife attacks in Germany. Today? It occurs more often and on a routine basis.
This past weekend, this guy and a couple of friends went out to a local fest in Mainz (they have a lot of them throughout the year).
Drunk migrant guy appears in front of the group.....has the perception that some insult or criticism was uttered....pulls a knife and attempted to stab this new employee. Kid used his arm and it took the blunt of this attack. Attacker then runs off. Ambulance called and the young guy is Ok, but will likely require some surgery.
Attacker? Cops put out a report, but I'd have doubts that you ever see or hear about this guy again.
The thing about events like this....it gets out and convinces people that it's just not safe in public places or in these German events. Twenty years ago, you just didn't worry about knife attacks in Germany. Today? It occurs more often and on a routine basis.
Sunday, June 24, 2018
My Munich Weekend
I spent the last three days in Munich....spending an entire day at the Solar Messe (the solar energy trade-show).
I will offer the five observations of the episode:
1. Generally, Germany is in the top three countries of the EU for electrical cost. Various reasons are given for this....with disbelief by the general public on logic of the cost. In general, you can expect a 50-percent cost rise every seven years. So for this reason, a lot of people are convinced to load up on solar panels.
2. The weather pattern affecting solar collection? Well....yeah. After walking around, this is the one item that they tend to avoid discussing in the sales pitch. Where I live, my impression is that you might be able to get eight-plus hours a day of sun....for about a hundred days out of the year. From November to March......in an average week, I'd be guessing that you'd collect no more than 20 hours per week of solar energy. No one can say if it's enough.
3. Having your house face a direction with the path of the sun. Well....most folks can put up stationary panels to handle one single 'path'. So a full day of 16 hours (like in June) isn't going to happen.
4. No one talks about disposal cost of the batteries or the panels (when they finally go bad). Maybe there is real cost of 'dumping' them. But these are Germans, and I have this odd feeling that you'd face a total bill of 1,000 Euro by the time you toss in the batteries and panels.
5. The factor on everyone's minds....2030 will arrive and only battery-cars will be sold. Will the grid be cheap enough, and have enough power? No one is absolute on how this will work out.
It was a great show, and featured a lot of new technology.
I will offer the five observations of the episode:
1. Generally, Germany is in the top three countries of the EU for electrical cost. Various reasons are given for this....with disbelief by the general public on logic of the cost. In general, you can expect a 50-percent cost rise every seven years. So for this reason, a lot of people are convinced to load up on solar panels.
2. The weather pattern affecting solar collection? Well....yeah. After walking around, this is the one item that they tend to avoid discussing in the sales pitch. Where I live, my impression is that you might be able to get eight-plus hours a day of sun....for about a hundred days out of the year. From November to March......in an average week, I'd be guessing that you'd collect no more than 20 hours per week of solar energy. No one can say if it's enough.
3. Having your house face a direction with the path of the sun. Well....most folks can put up stationary panels to handle one single 'path'. So a full day of 16 hours (like in June) isn't going to happen.
4. No one talks about disposal cost of the batteries or the panels (when they finally go bad). Maybe there is real cost of 'dumping' them. But these are Germans, and I have this odd feeling that you'd face a total bill of 1,000 Euro by the time you toss in the batteries and panels.
5. The factor on everyone's minds....2030 will arrive and only battery-cars will be sold. Will the grid be cheap enough, and have enough power? No one is absolute on how this will work out.
It was a great show, and featured a lot of new technology.
Friday, June 22, 2018
10,000 Silver Coins Story
About every year or two, I essay a piece where I warn non-Germans in Germany....don't get into the treasure hunting business, it's just not worth the hassle.
Here's the deal....between the Roman era, and the thousand years that passed, there are tons of things laying inches under the soil and waiting to be discovered.
German law? Any single thing that you find that goes past the WW I era....is state property. If you dig up Roman coins and try to walk away without reporting it? Embezzlement....potentially on up to three years in a German jail.
So you can search on private property, if you get the permission of the owner. Once you find anything of 'old' nature.....you have no choice but to report it. On public property? That's a big 'no'. So it really makes 'hunting' to be worthless. The government will typically say that they'd be open to a reward. You can figure if it does have a value of a million Euro....they might be willing to discuss something around 5-to-10 percent range of a reward.
Why this comes up? Well....in the Focus news magazine pieces for today....they brought up two young guys from Baden-Wurttemberg who figured they'd skip the notification to the government.
What they found? 10,000 silver coins from the late Roman era.
They split the coins up and just walked away.
Maybe if they'd sat and sold one or two coins at a time....it probably wouldn't have attracted attention. These were young guys and just grasping how much blunt-force will be used on this type of situation. My guess is that the judge will hand down some probation situation, and they lose out on any type of reward. The end of their 'hobby'? More than likely.
So my advice....treasure hunting isn't worth the hassle in Germany.
Here's the deal....between the Roman era, and the thousand years that passed, there are tons of things laying inches under the soil and waiting to be discovered.
German law? Any single thing that you find that goes past the WW I era....is state property. If you dig up Roman coins and try to walk away without reporting it? Embezzlement....potentially on up to three years in a German jail.
So you can search on private property, if you get the permission of the owner. Once you find anything of 'old' nature.....you have no choice but to report it. On public property? That's a big 'no'. So it really makes 'hunting' to be worthless. The government will typically say that they'd be open to a reward. You can figure if it does have a value of a million Euro....they might be willing to discuss something around 5-to-10 percent range of a reward.
Why this comes up? Well....in the Focus news magazine pieces for today....they brought up two young guys from Baden-Wurttemberg who figured they'd skip the notification to the government.
What they found? 10,000 silver coins from the late Roman era.
They split the coins up and just walked away.
Maybe if they'd sat and sold one or two coins at a time....it probably wouldn't have attracted attention. These were young guys and just grasping how much blunt-force will be used on this type of situation. My guess is that the judge will hand down some probation situation, and they lose out on any type of reward. The end of their 'hobby'? More than likely.
So my advice....treasure hunting isn't worth the hassle in Germany.
Thursday, June 21, 2018
A German Story to Be Amused
Back around eight or nine years ago.....I was told this story from one of my co-workers who had been listening to the German radio while going to work one morning.
The story goes this way.....a couple of older Germans (pensioners or retirees) had gotten this idea of taking their cat to the vet. Normal folks would have a cat-case and transport their animals this way (probably 99-percent of Germans).
But in this case....no. No case. The cat was supposed to be free within the car.
So the three Germans got into the car. I guess the cat was happy to be traveling around and seemed in some happy and tranquil mood.
Then they turned some corner, and the cat realized the surroundings, and this was the vet clinic approaching.
At this point, 'Fluffy' went into massive anger, jumping up from the backseat onto the head of the elderly driver. The driver freaks out....causing some massive car crash. An ambulance is required for the three occupants. No one said much over the cat. I'm guessing he just wandered off.
The story goes this way.....a couple of older Germans (pensioners or retirees) had gotten this idea of taking their cat to the vet. Normal folks would have a cat-case and transport their animals this way (probably 99-percent of Germans).
But in this case....no. No case. The cat was supposed to be free within the car.
So the three Germans got into the car. I guess the cat was happy to be traveling around and seemed in some happy and tranquil mood.
Then they turned some corner, and the cat realized the surroundings, and this was the vet clinic approaching.
At this point, 'Fluffy' went into massive anger, jumping up from the backseat onto the head of the elderly driver. The driver freaks out....causing some massive car crash. An ambulance is required for the three occupants. No one said much over the cat. I'm guessing he just wandered off.
Wednesday, June 20, 2018
Gasthaus Topic
Back around twenty years ago, I sat watching German TV and they were hyping up the trend of pubs and Gasthaus operations dwindling. The problems? They went along three simple lines. First, fewer people (referring primarily to men) drinking immediately after work. Second, the profit margin that the Gasthauses were making....wasn't enough to draw replacement owners as people retired from ownership. Finally, there was the issue of evening beer consumption. If you could buy your own beer, and drink it comfortably on your patio or balcony....then why walk down to the pub?
I noticed that topic came up via HR (our Hessen local public TV network).
Back in 2002, there were 3,000 Gasthauses or pubs in Hessen. Today....16 years later, there are 1,800 of these in existence. Every year, more shut down. It's worth a read at HR, but it's a woeful tale in some ways. It will not likely improve.
When I arrived in Germany in 1978, the Gasthaus tradition interested me. In rural villages, you would have had one single pub. In the larger villages of a thousand or more people....maybe two or more. You could walk in around 7 PM and found two or three tables with retired guys playing cards and discussing some soccer game results or some political theme. Five or six guys would be there at the counter and discussing their frustrations, their lost love, or the stupid boss at work. In the background, you'd see two guys by the 'casino' machine and intent on winning the jackpot (they never did). A local club might have the back room in use while they discuss some grand parade or big party for Oktoberfest celebration. Along about 10 PM, the bartender would chase everyone out, and shut down the bar. Folks would walk home....either half-drunk or completely drunk, and get some frustrations off their mind.
Somewhere over the past thirty years, that lifestyle ended.
Maybe along the way....hard-drinkers became harder to find. Some German women probably demanded their husband or boyfriend to clean up their act. And the sales of premium beer made in-the-house consumption easier.
In my village, there used to be three pubs or places where you could gather. Today, there are two of them. I would guess and say that ninety-percent of the population (figure 4,500 residents) don't ever mingle or gather at either pub or Gashaus.
It's a German tradition that is slowly dying away.
I noticed that topic came up via HR (our Hessen local public TV network).
Back in 2002, there were 3,000 Gasthauses or pubs in Hessen. Today....16 years later, there are 1,800 of these in existence. Every year, more shut down. It's worth a read at HR, but it's a woeful tale in some ways. It will not likely improve.
When I arrived in Germany in 1978, the Gasthaus tradition interested me. In rural villages, you would have had one single pub. In the larger villages of a thousand or more people....maybe two or more. You could walk in around 7 PM and found two or three tables with retired guys playing cards and discussing some soccer game results or some political theme. Five or six guys would be there at the counter and discussing their frustrations, their lost love, or the stupid boss at work. In the background, you'd see two guys by the 'casino' machine and intent on winning the jackpot (they never did). A local club might have the back room in use while they discuss some grand parade or big party for Oktoberfest celebration. Along about 10 PM, the bartender would chase everyone out, and shut down the bar. Folks would walk home....either half-drunk or completely drunk, and get some frustrations off their mind.
Somewhere over the past thirty years, that lifestyle ended.
Maybe along the way....hard-drinkers became harder to find. Some German women probably demanded their husband or boyfriend to clean up their act. And the sales of premium beer made in-the-house consumption easier.
In my village, there used to be three pubs or places where you could gather. Today, there are two of them. I would guess and say that ninety-percent of the population (figure 4,500 residents) don't ever mingle or gather at either pub or Gashaus.
It's a German tradition that is slowly dying away.
The Copyright Story
The ARD news folks (public German TV, Channel One) brought up a update piece today over the EU, and this pending draft law.
There's to be a vote within the legal committee of the EU over a change in copyright. It's an odd perception that they are moving toward.
There would be two central features to this draft law. First, there would be one single EU-wide copyright law. It wouldn't matter how you perceived things in Italy or Spain, or even Germany....the EU law would overwrite that understanding. Second, there would be a upload filter that would exist for just about every single digital platform in the EU....meaning people standing there to review content and decide if you violated the EU standard. This would mean cooking recipes, blogs, travel journals, car facts, and so on. In particular, it would mean YouTube videos would be reviewed for copyright infringement and tossed if they failed.
Yes, in a matter of hours, you could see half of all videos and blogs deleted after being freshly planted on the internet.
The general perception by the internet community? ARD says to some degree....the community would be small and there would be a fairly limited scope. In other words.....the whole of the internet would be downsized.
You might be sitting around the balcony one afternoon with your guitar, and record yourself playing a Beatles tune with a jazzy-sound, and as you tried to plant the four-minute song on YouTube....you got some note that this tune is copyrighted, and so your song was denied on YouTube.
Blocking off the freedom of expression? Well....yes.
Blocking off potential political discontent and the chance of a public anger over government activity? That's very possible.
Some Germans believe that the CDU and SPD are behind the EU movement on this draft. There's no facts to substantiate this however. The EU apparently decided on its own to create this massive copyright law....at least that's what they say.
I sat and pondered over this for the last couple of days. There are three observations I can make:
First, as quickly as this might pass and be implemented....it's very likely to draw an intense amount of public attention and be remarkably part of the spring 2019 election talk ahead of the EU representative election. It's quite possible that you could see fifty-percent of the EU wide vote go to marginal parties who want to confront the law, and toss it out. You would think that the EU would be mindful of the timing but it doesn't appear to be on their logic-list.
Second, if you went and mandated copyright analysts for Google, Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube....it would require just in Germany alone....several thousand people, and you'd give each of them authority to censor normal citizens but without mechanisms to hinder the censors. For both the CDU and SPD, they could sit and blame the EU for this mess, but the public wouldn't care. The public would go and make a blunt message against both parties for being part of the 'mess'.
Third, the political system throughout the EU was built over the decades with the news mechanism available via newsprint, radio, and TV. Over the past decade....the internet crept into the middle. Social media became a political player. A single social media site could easily feed two-million people a day in Germany, and possibly even twenty-million people throughout the EU. If the political folks and agenda 'masters' can't control that single social media site.....then it'd have to be shut down.
So I come to my final conclusion. All of this law making and censorship....would lead to non-EU web sites becoming highly popular and the EU having to darken the web to those sites because it's not authorized. In blunt terms....absolute and total censorship would occur within ten years. As much as the EU talks about democracy.....they would in the end become the greatest enemy of freedom. My best guess is that it'll pass.
There's to be a vote within the legal committee of the EU over a change in copyright. It's an odd perception that they are moving toward.
There would be two central features to this draft law. First, there would be one single EU-wide copyright law. It wouldn't matter how you perceived things in Italy or Spain, or even Germany....the EU law would overwrite that understanding. Second, there would be a upload filter that would exist for just about every single digital platform in the EU....meaning people standing there to review content and decide if you violated the EU standard. This would mean cooking recipes, blogs, travel journals, car facts, and so on. In particular, it would mean YouTube videos would be reviewed for copyright infringement and tossed if they failed.
Yes, in a matter of hours, you could see half of all videos and blogs deleted after being freshly planted on the internet.
The general perception by the internet community? ARD says to some degree....the community would be small and there would be a fairly limited scope. In other words.....the whole of the internet would be downsized.
You might be sitting around the balcony one afternoon with your guitar, and record yourself playing a Beatles tune with a jazzy-sound, and as you tried to plant the four-minute song on YouTube....you got some note that this tune is copyrighted, and so your song was denied on YouTube.
Blocking off the freedom of expression? Well....yes.
Blocking off potential political discontent and the chance of a public anger over government activity? That's very possible.
Some Germans believe that the CDU and SPD are behind the EU movement on this draft. There's no facts to substantiate this however. The EU apparently decided on its own to create this massive copyright law....at least that's what they say.
I sat and pondered over this for the last couple of days. There are three observations I can make:
First, as quickly as this might pass and be implemented....it's very likely to draw an intense amount of public attention and be remarkably part of the spring 2019 election talk ahead of the EU representative election. It's quite possible that you could see fifty-percent of the EU wide vote go to marginal parties who want to confront the law, and toss it out. You would think that the EU would be mindful of the timing but it doesn't appear to be on their logic-list.
Second, if you went and mandated copyright analysts for Google, Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube....it would require just in Germany alone....several thousand people, and you'd give each of them authority to censor normal citizens but without mechanisms to hinder the censors. For both the CDU and SPD, they could sit and blame the EU for this mess, but the public wouldn't care. The public would go and make a blunt message against both parties for being part of the 'mess'.
Third, the political system throughout the EU was built over the decades with the news mechanism available via newsprint, radio, and TV. Over the past decade....the internet crept into the middle. Social media became a political player. A single social media site could easily feed two-million people a day in Germany, and possibly even twenty-million people throughout the EU. If the political folks and agenda 'masters' can't control that single social media site.....then it'd have to be shut down.
So I come to my final conclusion. All of this law making and censorship....would lead to non-EU web sites becoming highly popular and the EU having to darken the web to those sites because it's not authorized. In blunt terms....absolute and total censorship would occur within ten years. As much as the EU talks about democracy.....they would in the end become the greatest enemy of freedom. My best guess is that it'll pass.
This Money Story
Anyone who thought the Seehofer-Merkel immigration battle was dissolved or lessened....was dead wrong.
So this morning....Focus (the German news magazine) brought up the next little issue.
The coalition partner to Merkel's 'team' is the SPD. They've come out now....complaining heavily about one part of the Seehofer plan to handle migration. The Finance Minister (Olaf Scholz) says that any attempt to seize cash from asylum seekers will be a problem.
The direct quote here is "In everything that serves only to humiliate people, we do not participate."
The suggestion here by Seehofer is that a number (yet to be openly discussed with facts) of asylum seekers are entering the country with cash. No one says how much, or if this is even worth making an issue.
Could you have one-percent of the asylum seekers walking in with 10,000 Euro in their backpack? Maybe. Could there be ten people a year walking into Germany with 100,000 Euro in their backpack? Maybe. But there are no facts to say this is a big deal or not.
All Seehofer is saying.....is that he wants the Border Patrol folks to review folks as they demand asylum, and if they have a substantial amount of cash....it'll be retrieved as a 'payment' for services.
The problem here is that Germans don't want to get some funny idea that 300 asylum seekers per year....have 20,000 Euro in their pocket and it's German tax money paying for shelter and food for the next two years.
As for this becoming some major SPD opposition issue? There's no doubt about this.
But if you were some migrant guy with 100,00 dollars on your person.....wouldn't you just go and find some place to bury the money, then walk across the border to ask for asylum, and wait a year to dig your money up after the 'coast was clear'? I mean, this wouldn't take much thinking to realize you are better off hiding the money than giving it to the German tax collector.
So this morning....Focus (the German news magazine) brought up the next little issue.
The coalition partner to Merkel's 'team' is the SPD. They've come out now....complaining heavily about one part of the Seehofer plan to handle migration. The Finance Minister (Olaf Scholz) says that any attempt to seize cash from asylum seekers will be a problem.
The direct quote here is "In everything that serves only to humiliate people, we do not participate."
The suggestion here by Seehofer is that a number (yet to be openly discussed with facts) of asylum seekers are entering the country with cash. No one says how much, or if this is even worth making an issue.
Could you have one-percent of the asylum seekers walking in with 10,000 Euro in their backpack? Maybe. Could there be ten people a year walking into Germany with 100,000 Euro in their backpack? Maybe. But there are no facts to say this is a big deal or not.
All Seehofer is saying.....is that he wants the Border Patrol folks to review folks as they demand asylum, and if they have a substantial amount of cash....it'll be retrieved as a 'payment' for services.
The problem here is that Germans don't want to get some funny idea that 300 asylum seekers per year....have 20,000 Euro in their pocket and it's German tax money paying for shelter and food for the next two years.
As for this becoming some major SPD opposition issue? There's no doubt about this.
But if you were some migrant guy with 100,00 dollars on your person.....wouldn't you just go and find some place to bury the money, then walk across the border to ask for asylum, and wait a year to dig your money up after the 'coast was clear'? I mean, this wouldn't take much thinking to realize you are better off hiding the money than giving it to the German tax collector.
A Short Moment on Migration
I sat last night watching a news piece from ZDF (German public TV, Channel Two). The 'hype' they laid out in four minutes was the Earth-wide problem of migration and frustration. They had some foundation that had done research and gave out a number of 60-odd million people in some form of migration effort or planning for 2018. In basic terms, they weren't happy and their resolve was bundled into the idea of moving elsewhere.
So this led me to ponder this phenomenon.
The foundation didn't discuss the matter, but out of the 60-odd million....how many were on some path where only Germany was the 'answer'? Well....you don't know.
My guess is that a minimum of ten-percent of this 60-odd million have Germany on their mind. They've seen pictures.....read comments by countrymen who made the journey to Germany....then laid there at night thinking how wonderful it would be in a land where beer flowed like water, that trains actually ran on time, and everyone seemed to be slightly overweight from too much food.
How did this phenomenon start up? I suspect when the internet started to arrive in the third-world, and people sat and watch video-clips of the wonderous lives that people led in strange places like Rome, Chicago, and London....the urge got into folks. Then they discovered that borders really didn't exist. Then they came to discover that you could walk 1,500 miles very easily. Then finally magic moment when you figured out that no one was going to deny you that chance to enter your country of choice.
In some ways, we've opened up the Pandora's Box. There's not a single country in Europe that can handle more than half-of-one percent of their population coming through some doorway into their country, on a yearly basis. Just to imagine how housing and job-efforts would work if you went to a one-percent level of open doorways for a full decade would be difficult.
So I'm to suggest that the decade ahead will twist and turn European society (in particular the Germans), and create some reactionary political stance of 'no migration' or forbidden immigration. It's probably too late to build some proper doorway, or find a path that makes long-term sense.
So this led me to ponder this phenomenon.
The foundation didn't discuss the matter, but out of the 60-odd million....how many were on some path where only Germany was the 'answer'? Well....you don't know.
My guess is that a minimum of ten-percent of this 60-odd million have Germany on their mind. They've seen pictures.....read comments by countrymen who made the journey to Germany....then laid there at night thinking how wonderful it would be in a land where beer flowed like water, that trains actually ran on time, and everyone seemed to be slightly overweight from too much food.
How did this phenomenon start up? I suspect when the internet started to arrive in the third-world, and people sat and watch video-clips of the wonderous lives that people led in strange places like Rome, Chicago, and London....the urge got into folks. Then they discovered that borders really didn't exist. Then they came to discover that you could walk 1,500 miles very easily. Then finally magic moment when you figured out that no one was going to deny you that chance to enter your country of choice.
In some ways, we've opened up the Pandora's Box. There's not a single country in Europe that can handle more than half-of-one percent of their population coming through some doorway into their country, on a yearly basis. Just to imagine how housing and job-efforts would work if you went to a one-percent level of open doorways for a full decade would be difficult.
So I'm to suggest that the decade ahead will twist and turn European society (in particular the Germans), and create some reactionary political stance of 'no migration' or forbidden immigration. It's probably too late to build some proper doorway, or find a path that makes long-term sense.
Tuesday, June 19, 2018
The Terror Fund
This got brought up today by Focus News Magazine here in Germany. There's a new segment tied into the German budget....basically paying you for your 'losses' if your family member got killed in some terror act or extremist act.
But as the reality of the amount unfolded....relatives started to question the government. I suspect they were thinking it'd be a 'lot' more.
So from the terror attack in Berlin around Xmas from 18 months ago....one daughter noted her dad's passing in the attack, and the amount of monthly pension granted to her.....is 140 Euro (roughly 160 US dollars).
How this is figured up? Well....some government guy wrote the magic formula which creates a monthly pension deal, and the amount at the low end is 140 Euro, and at the high-end....736 Euro (roughly 900 US dollars). If you were a spouse or life-partner, you can figure you'd get 443 Euro per month (roughly 550 US dollars).
It's hard to say where the fairness level lies with this business. I imagine some people were thinking it'd be a thousand Euro a month. Could a wife with two kids survive off 736 Euro a month after the husband/father dies in a situation like this? No. That would basically give you near 900 US dollars a month.
In some way, it's the government's way of saying....here, here's a gift for your loss. I do agree, it's on the low side.
But as the reality of the amount unfolded....relatives started to question the government. I suspect they were thinking it'd be a 'lot' more.
So from the terror attack in Berlin around Xmas from 18 months ago....one daughter noted her dad's passing in the attack, and the amount of monthly pension granted to her.....is 140 Euro (roughly 160 US dollars).
How this is figured up? Well....some government guy wrote the magic formula which creates a monthly pension deal, and the amount at the low end is 140 Euro, and at the high-end....736 Euro (roughly 900 US dollars). If you were a spouse or life-partner, you can figure you'd get 443 Euro per month (roughly 550 US dollars).
It's hard to say where the fairness level lies with this business. I imagine some people were thinking it'd be a thousand Euro a month. Could a wife with two kids survive off 736 Euro a month after the husband/father dies in a situation like this? No. That would basically give you near 900 US dollars a month.
In some way, it's the government's way of saying....here, here's a gift for your loss. I do agree, it's on the low side.
The Migration Topic in Today's German News
ARD, the German public TV network, came out with a short piece today....talking over a point that some pro-asylum folks have long suggested.....creating migration and refugee facilities beyond the EU border.
The basic concept is that you'd have some point where ships remove rescued folks and those 'guests' are taken into some type of shelter (beyond the description there, nothing exists).
So after you arrive at such a destination....then you'd fill out paperwork. Then you'd get declared one of two categories....economic migrant, or official refugee. One would proceed on in some fashion, and the other would not.
You can imagine how the questions would be worded, and various people standing there would have a paper-script and say the exact phrase, and then they'd announce that during the ship movement....they lost their identity card or passport.
The speed of this bureaucratic processing? No one gets into this detail. I can't imagine you being able to handle more than twenty of these reviews per day, by one single 'judge'. Maybe the EU folks think they will move on quickly but if you had 1,000 folks landing daily.....you'd have to have some type of robust review process set up and operating at a brisk pace.
Where would such a place be? Presently unknown. Someone did suggest a number of months ago that it'd be suitable to operate this in northern Africa....but you'd probably have to pay someone or some country to do this, and it'd be into the billions per year deal....like Erdogan got for the no-smuggling deal. It's not impossible, but it's another two or three billion of tax revenue required to fix Germany's problem.
The word I'd personally use here in this whole story is 'skeptical'. I don't buy into the ease of which you'd build these camps and operate them. I certainly don't think the refugees will allow you to turn them down or return them to Northern Africa. And all this would do is create a new smuggling route....maybe even going out of the Med and toward the UK beaches.
But the real intellectual side of this....is that it can be 'fixed'. As long as you can talk about this in some lab experiment way.....folks will continue down this path. If at any point, you just had some German leadership occur where virtually all visas are dismissed unless you do it via your home-country German consulate....then you'd change the whole game overnight. But so far.....no German leader wants to promote the idea of denying visas.
Monday, June 18, 2018
The Merkel "Poker Game"
After the smoke cleared yesterday, this is how you can interpret the Seehofer versus Chancellor Merkel situation.
First, the Chancellor basically had to give in and accept Seehofer's changes or prepare to form a new government, or in the worst case....have a new election. You can go and asking the polling folks how folks feel, and a minimum of 50-percent of the public are very open to a new election. You will also find that the numbers right now for both the CDU and SPD....are lower than they were in September 2017's national election.
Yesterday, I noticed one poll suggesting that the AfD had now climbed up to within one point of the SPD. The effect was both the center-right and center-left parties were losing voters, with the four lesser parties all gaining a point or two. Those four lesser parties now control near 50-plus percent of the national vote. If you go back to the 1960s and 1970s....the CDU/CSU and SPD Parties....would typically get 90-plus percent of the national vote.
What the SPD was hoping back in January, was that they'd get this great chance to rebuild confidence, but this would require a minimum of two years. They don't want an election in 2018, or 2019 (my humble opinion).
Second, the Chancellor has one single card left to play....this emergency EU meeting in Brussels in the first week of January. She wants them to throw out the Dublin Convention entirely, and work up some type of new treaty that involves 'forced' acceptance within the EU of migrants and immigrants.
The odds of this being accepted? You can find at least five members of the EU who are openly against this type of EU regulation. My suspicion is that at least an additional five would lay out enough concerns to make it very difficult.
Third, polling over the past couple of days says that most Germans favor Seehofer's idea of moving failed visa applicants out of the country as quickly as possible, especially if they represent 'risk'. No one says how the 'risk' factor will be laid out and that just gets pro-asylum folks hyped up to fight Seehofer.
Fourth, if Merkel fails to get traction with the EU method? Well, that really would suggest that Seehofer won the game. But then they will start to deport folks who were already entered into the system in other EU member states....back to those states. I'm guessing this will upset the Italians to some degree, and maybe the Greeks (they both will get a fair number of these folks). You would probably start to see this by September, and it would generate more hostile feelings around the EU.
So that's the basic 'game' being played out. If you sit and listen to the 'experts' talk about north Africa, and the number of people in some waiting status to get a rubber raft position and get picked up as an asylum-seeker....it gets into the hundreds of thousands of people. They've given up on their homeland and figure Europe will accept them....in particular, Germany. If you were assembling the legacy items of Chancellor Merkel and her era....it will end up being totally about migration and asylum.
First, the Chancellor basically had to give in and accept Seehofer's changes or prepare to form a new government, or in the worst case....have a new election. You can go and asking the polling folks how folks feel, and a minimum of 50-percent of the public are very open to a new election. You will also find that the numbers right now for both the CDU and SPD....are lower than they were in September 2017's national election.
Yesterday, I noticed one poll suggesting that the AfD had now climbed up to within one point of the SPD. The effect was both the center-right and center-left parties were losing voters, with the four lesser parties all gaining a point or two. Those four lesser parties now control near 50-plus percent of the national vote. If you go back to the 1960s and 1970s....the CDU/CSU and SPD Parties....would typically get 90-plus percent of the national vote.
What the SPD was hoping back in January, was that they'd get this great chance to rebuild confidence, but this would require a minimum of two years. They don't want an election in 2018, or 2019 (my humble opinion).
Second, the Chancellor has one single card left to play....this emergency EU meeting in Brussels in the first week of January. She wants them to throw out the Dublin Convention entirely, and work up some type of new treaty that involves 'forced' acceptance within the EU of migrants and immigrants.
The odds of this being accepted? You can find at least five members of the EU who are openly against this type of EU regulation. My suspicion is that at least an additional five would lay out enough concerns to make it very difficult.
Third, polling over the past couple of days says that most Germans favor Seehofer's idea of moving failed visa applicants out of the country as quickly as possible, especially if they represent 'risk'. No one says how the 'risk' factor will be laid out and that just gets pro-asylum folks hyped up to fight Seehofer.
Fourth, if Merkel fails to get traction with the EU method? Well, that really would suggest that Seehofer won the game. But then they will start to deport folks who were already entered into the system in other EU member states....back to those states. I'm guessing this will upset the Italians to some degree, and maybe the Greeks (they both will get a fair number of these folks). You would probably start to see this by September, and it would generate more hostile feelings around the EU.
So that's the basic 'game' being played out. If you sit and listen to the 'experts' talk about north Africa, and the number of people in some waiting status to get a rubber raft position and get picked up as an asylum-seeker....it gets into the hundreds of thousands of people. They've given up on their homeland and figure Europe will accept them....in particular, Germany. If you were assembling the legacy items of Chancellor Merkel and her era....it will end up being totally about migration and asylum.
Merkel Accepting Asylum Limitations
Afternoon news from ARD (Channel One, public TV in Germany) says that the Chancellor (Merkel) has accept for the most part....the 'master plan' of the Interior Minister (Seehofer, CSU). The acceptance does state that he won't implement this until after the EU emergency meeting in Brussels (1st week of July).
Shocker.
The plan basically says that if you already registered in another country of the EU for asylum.....you will be deported out of Germany, back to the country where you signed in.
The SPD folks? They mostly say nothing. I think they were begging for some way to avoid another election, and Merkel gave it to them.
What else happens? Well, this emergency summit in Brussels in two weeks, to discuss the whole business of asylum and immigration. She wants them to basically redraw the Dublin Agreement, and write up a basic fix-it-all package for the EU.
The odds that the EU will find this package? You would have to find a method to force the 28 countries to just start accepting migrants, without arguments. I'm not sure that will happen.
The end of the mess? The collapse of the Merkel coalition was avoided....mostly because of the fear of a fresh new election. We will basically move onto the next emergency and wait until another collapse might occur. Seehofer? I'm guessing he's standing there and grinning because she had to give in.
So how many people would be affected by this? Thats the odd thing....the news media doesn't say. My humble guess is that it's a minimum of 100,000 people, who sit in Germany and fit the Dublin Agreement profile.....who signed in elsewhere. The next question is....will some judge start to issue delays on Seehofer's demand to exit these folks?
Shocker.
The plan basically says that if you already registered in another country of the EU for asylum.....you will be deported out of Germany, back to the country where you signed in.
The SPD folks? They mostly say nothing. I think they were begging for some way to avoid another election, and Merkel gave it to them.
What else happens? Well, this emergency summit in Brussels in two weeks, to discuss the whole business of asylum and immigration. She wants them to basically redraw the Dublin Agreement, and write up a basic fix-it-all package for the EU.
The odds that the EU will find this package? You would have to find a method to force the 28 countries to just start accepting migrants, without arguments. I'm not sure that will happen.
The end of the mess? The collapse of the Merkel coalition was avoided....mostly because of the fear of a fresh new election. We will basically move onto the next emergency and wait until another collapse might occur. Seehofer? I'm guessing he's standing there and grinning because she had to give in.
So how many people would be affected by this? Thats the odd thing....the news media doesn't say. My humble guess is that it's a minimum of 100,000 people, who sit in Germany and fit the Dublin Agreement profile.....who signed in elsewhere. The next question is....will some judge start to issue delays on Seehofer's demand to exit these folks?
A Little Short Story
Last week, over in Göttingen (Lower Saxony).....the cops got a call.
'Johan' spoke to the cops and noted he was the manager of an asylum center in the local town. 'Johan' had this Liberian guy....20 years old....who had apparently threatened suicide.
Now, we don't know if the Liberian was serious, or just making a frustration type statement. We don't know if he mentally ill, or just plain old-fashioned home-sick. These are facts left out of the story.
Cops have a set pattern or reaction. It's in a checklist. Basically, it says that you will react to each threat of suicide. They will call an ambulance, and then the cops show up to ensure the person is 'retrieved'. But because this is a asylum center, there's an extra feature to this situation....you need to come in force....meaning more than one police car (two cops).
So you can imagine what occurs here.
The cops show up....with the ambulance, and a fair number of additional cops to retrieve this Liberian. The locals at the asylum center? They go nuts, and launch into an attack on the cops....to prevent the suicidal guy from being taken. The suicidal guy? Well....he was refusing to cooperate and go. Maybe he was fearful that they'd just return him to Liberia or they'd cancel the visa application.
In the end, the guy was taken to a local mental facility for evaluation. Cops are investigating the attack but I doubt if anyone gets arrested.
All this does....is trigger locals to evaluate migration in a different way, and assume that things are not fine. Well....the other thing that it might accomplish is that when you are seeking asylum and standing in a center in a depressed mode.....you won't dare suggest that you are suicidal (even if you are suicidal).
'Johan' spoke to the cops and noted he was the manager of an asylum center in the local town. 'Johan' had this Liberian guy....20 years old....who had apparently threatened suicide.
Now, we don't know if the Liberian was serious, or just making a frustration type statement. We don't know if he mentally ill, or just plain old-fashioned home-sick. These are facts left out of the story.
Cops have a set pattern or reaction. It's in a checklist. Basically, it says that you will react to each threat of suicide. They will call an ambulance, and then the cops show up to ensure the person is 'retrieved'. But because this is a asylum center, there's an extra feature to this situation....you need to come in force....meaning more than one police car (two cops).
So you can imagine what occurs here.
The cops show up....with the ambulance, and a fair number of additional cops to retrieve this Liberian. The locals at the asylum center? They go nuts, and launch into an attack on the cops....to prevent the suicidal guy from being taken. The suicidal guy? Well....he was refusing to cooperate and go. Maybe he was fearful that they'd just return him to Liberia or they'd cancel the visa application.
In the end, the guy was taken to a local mental facility for evaluation. Cops are investigating the attack but I doubt if anyone gets arrested.
All this does....is trigger locals to evaluate migration in a different way, and assume that things are not fine. Well....the other thing that it might accomplish is that when you are seeking asylum and standing in a center in a depressed mode.....you won't dare suggest that you are suicidal (even if you are suicidal).
Polling over Migration Story
It's a short story via Focus (the German news magazine) this morning. Someone did a poll and asked strictly Bavarians (they have their own state, you know) about the asylum-policy that the Interior Minister Seehofer is discussing....commonly referred to as the 'hard asylum policy'.
Well....71-percent said yes....they want it, even if it was not without the support of the CDU. It is a fairly overwhelming number.
The folks who did the survey...even went to a second question about the necessary action of breaking up the coalition, and 53-percent of Germans (nationwide) said 'yes'.....it would be the right time to give up on this mess....suggesting in some way a new election.
Course, a new election would mean talking about the migration and immigration business and I seriously doubt that anyone in the SPD or CDU party would agree to that type of open discussion in public.
Well....71-percent said yes....they want it, even if it was not without the support of the CDU. It is a fairly overwhelming number.
The folks who did the survey...even went to a second question about the necessary action of breaking up the coalition, and 53-percent of Germans (nationwide) said 'yes'.....it would be the right time to give up on this mess....suggesting in some way a new election.
Course, a new election would mean talking about the migration and immigration business and I seriously doubt that anyone in the SPD or CDU party would agree to that type of open discussion in public.
Sunday, June 17, 2018
Was There Ever a German Migration, Immigration or Asylum Policy?
Well....no.
Folks will say that a structure existed in 2013, and had been in place since 1949 to handle migrants, immigrants or asylum seekers. To that I agree....they had structure, some basic rules, a couple of lines in the Constitution, and dedicated people who ran a government program. That part is true.
In the early 1990s, as the Wall came down and there was no real border structure left in Europe....they even went and constructed the Dublin Convention which laid out basic rules on how asylum seekers would be prevented from shopping around.
The EU in this business? Well...they had literally hundreds of issues that they were working upon and this was not in their top 500 issues (from the 1990s to today). You can bring this up an ask why. My guess is that they'd respond that the the 28 nations had a particular view which didn't agree with the EU representation, and I think they were afraid to 'cross the line'.
You can spend hours discussing the landscape, and come to three basic areas which are unresolved.
First, with the Dublin Regulation....once you arrive in Greece or Italy (or wherever), that's the place where you should do your asylum paperwork, and immigrate into. You can't just wander in, and use a menu-system to pick a country. Or if you did want to pick a country.....you could easily do that from your homeland, by walking into the German embassy...filling out the fifteen-page application....show an ID, and present a good case for immigration. None of the asylum seekers want option A or option B.
Second, once you fail a visa application....there's a set path for you to exit Germany. Most migrants and asylum seekers didn't arrive with a plan 'B' idea in their heads. So when this paperwork comes back.....they really don't want to go back home (especially if they've been in Germany for twelve months). Yet, the federal government of Germany and probably half of the German states....have shown little concern for this problem. In the past four months, with the new coalition team, the Interior Minister was hyped up to finally settle this exit-problem. In an amusing way, he is mostly blocked off by Chancellor Merkel, part of the CDU folks, and the SPD Party. The public views this 'children's party' in an amusing way.
Third and final....the end-all solution to all migration problems, if you go and listen to the Chancellor.....is for the EU to fix it. By that, she wants the EU to order various countries or member-states....to be just like Germany. Oddly, it just doesn't sell well to other European countries.
So I look back at the summer of 2017, when you could have come up and talked about ideas within the election campaign period, and absolutely no one (particularly the moderators or journalists) wanted to make this a top-three issue. They all pretended that things would just continue....with no real policy. Here we are today.....a government continually inventing 'escape-routes', because of the intent to avoid the issue.
Folks will say that a structure existed in 2013, and had been in place since 1949 to handle migrants, immigrants or asylum seekers. To that I agree....they had structure, some basic rules, a couple of lines in the Constitution, and dedicated people who ran a government program. That part is true.
In the early 1990s, as the Wall came down and there was no real border structure left in Europe....they even went and constructed the Dublin Convention which laid out basic rules on how asylum seekers would be prevented from shopping around.
The EU in this business? Well...they had literally hundreds of issues that they were working upon and this was not in their top 500 issues (from the 1990s to today). You can bring this up an ask why. My guess is that they'd respond that the the 28 nations had a particular view which didn't agree with the EU representation, and I think they were afraid to 'cross the line'.
You can spend hours discussing the landscape, and come to three basic areas which are unresolved.
First, with the Dublin Regulation....once you arrive in Greece or Italy (or wherever), that's the place where you should do your asylum paperwork, and immigrate into. You can't just wander in, and use a menu-system to pick a country. Or if you did want to pick a country.....you could easily do that from your homeland, by walking into the German embassy...filling out the fifteen-page application....show an ID, and present a good case for immigration. None of the asylum seekers want option A or option B.
Second, once you fail a visa application....there's a set path for you to exit Germany. Most migrants and asylum seekers didn't arrive with a plan 'B' idea in their heads. So when this paperwork comes back.....they really don't want to go back home (especially if they've been in Germany for twelve months). Yet, the federal government of Germany and probably half of the German states....have shown little concern for this problem. In the past four months, with the new coalition team, the Interior Minister was hyped up to finally settle this exit-problem. In an amusing way, he is mostly blocked off by Chancellor Merkel, part of the CDU folks, and the SPD Party. The public views this 'children's party' in an amusing way.
Third and final....the end-all solution to all migration problems, if you go and listen to the Chancellor.....is for the EU to fix it. By that, she wants the EU to order various countries or member-states....to be just like Germany. Oddly, it just doesn't sell well to other European countries.
So I look back at the summer of 2017, when you could have come up and talked about ideas within the election campaign period, and absolutely no one (particularly the moderators or journalists) wanted to make this a top-three issue. They all pretended that things would just continue....with no real policy. Here we are today.....a government continually inventing 'escape-routes', because of the intent to avoid the issue.
Merkel and the Greens
Today started up the rumor around German political circles that the Greens are reviewing options if Seehofer and CSU pulls out of the Merkel coalition. The suggestion (not to be taken that serious) is that they might stand up and volunteer to be part of the Merkel-CDU and SPD coalition....bringing them to the plus-50-percent of the Bundestag.
There are several ways to observe this.
First, the CDU did try to build a coalition back in November and December.....with the Greens and FDP Party. That failed....mostly because of the FDP folks (not the Greens).
Second, the CDU at the state level.....has a serious relationship with the Green Party in Hessen.
Third, the chief problem I see is that you'd have to hand at least three cabinet positions over to the Greens. The Interior Minister job? Well...it could go to them, but I would question public frustration over the approaching problem of handling immigration and asylum issues.
Fourth, would the CSU point at the marginalized conservative core that the CDU represents? Yes....that's a real possibility. You might as well refer to them as the CDSU.....that they are mostly SPD instead of CDU.
Fifth, would the CDU first go to the FDP? I'm fairly confident that this would be the first option.
A sort of wild swing for the Merkel team? Yes, and it just means they maneuver their way to the next big problem
There are several ways to observe this.
First, the CDU did try to build a coalition back in November and December.....with the Greens and FDP Party. That failed....mostly because of the FDP folks (not the Greens).
Second, the CDU at the state level.....has a serious relationship with the Green Party in Hessen.
Third, the chief problem I see is that you'd have to hand at least three cabinet positions over to the Greens. The Interior Minister job? Well...it could go to them, but I would question public frustration over the approaching problem of handling immigration and asylum issues.
Fourth, would the CSU point at the marginalized conservative core that the CDU represents? Yes....that's a real possibility. You might as well refer to them as the CDSU.....that they are mostly SPD instead of CDU.
Fifth, would the CDU first go to the FDP? I'm fairly confident that this would be the first option.
A sort of wild swing for the Merkel team? Yes, and it just means they maneuver their way to the next big problem
German Court Story
On the list of the dozen odd problems facing Germany and it's immigration episode....there's this laying there with appeals by folks who failed the visa process. Once BamF (the agency holding responsibility over visa paperwork) makes their decision....it means that you typically need to leave the country within X-number of days. Or you file an appeal, and wait.
The ARD network (Channel One from the public TV spectrum) had a short talk on this today.
Back in 2013, the courts didn't really have any cases facing it on asylum situations. Today? There are tens of thousands of cases sitting there. You could be looking at a full year of delay....maybe even on up to three years. The chances of beating the BamF decision? Some suggest there is a one-in-three chance of beating the process.
So over the weekend....the German Justice Minister....Katarina Barley...a SPD Party member....said that she wants to speed up asylum procedures with guideline sentences.
Her hype is that asylum appeals need to be settled 'quickly'. The process here, if you haven't figured it out...is that it's a state-by-state issue, and the appeals never touch the federal government itself. What the federal government has offered is more manpower, although no one really knows what'll happen once you clear the deck of these tens of thousands of asylum appeals. Would you have a judicial instrument with almost no caseload?
As for the appeals process? She could have gone the Seehoffer way and said that she'd enforce the Dublin Agreement, but that would have freaked out Merkel and the whole SPD Party. So this 'speed' talk? More or less just headline coverage and not much else.
The ARD network (Channel One from the public TV spectrum) had a short talk on this today.
Back in 2013, the courts didn't really have any cases facing it on asylum situations. Today? There are tens of thousands of cases sitting there. You could be looking at a full year of delay....maybe even on up to three years. The chances of beating the BamF decision? Some suggest there is a one-in-three chance of beating the process.
So over the weekend....the German Justice Minister....Katarina Barley...a SPD Party member....said that she wants to speed up asylum procedures with guideline sentences.
Her hype is that asylum appeals need to be settled 'quickly'. The process here, if you haven't figured it out...is that it's a state-by-state issue, and the appeals never touch the federal government itself. What the federal government has offered is more manpower, although no one really knows what'll happen once you clear the deck of these tens of thousands of asylum appeals. Would you have a judicial instrument with almost no caseload?
As for the appeals process? She could have gone the Seehoffer way and said that she'd enforce the Dublin Agreement, but that would have freaked out Merkel and the whole SPD Party. So this 'speed' talk? More or less just headline coverage and not much else.
Saturday, June 16, 2018
The Evolution Story
In the fall of 2013, and as a full-time retiree....I had time on my hands to read and research. So I sat down and read the entire Islamic Koran (in English). The two 'other' documents which people always insist being part of the reading? No, I skipped them. I came to a number of observations and views, but one of them was the fact that Islam hadn't ever gone through a evolution (as the Catholic Church and most other religions had done).
Today, the ARD (public TV in Germany, Channel One) brought up this Mosque which had opened a year ago in Berlin. It's referred to as a 'liberal' Mosque. I know.....usually suggesting that gets a laugh.
The Rushd Gothe Mosque has been open for a year, and has a woman as the Imam. Yep, that usually gets you into trouble.
The interesting thing is that she has people showing up from the Muslim religion, and wanting to participate with it. Gays accepted? Well....yeah. That usually wouldn't work either.
The full veiling business? No....that isn't on their agenda and they consider it to be more of a control-device than a religious device.
Odds of this spreading? You could suggest in twenty years that twenty Mosques of this type might exist around Germany and involve a lot more Muslim youth, with the older folks going to the old-fashioned type Mosques.
It is this evolution that I was talking about or suggesting....but it's a long drawn out phase.
Today, the ARD (public TV in Germany, Channel One) brought up this Mosque which had opened a year ago in Berlin. It's referred to as a 'liberal' Mosque. I know.....usually suggesting that gets a laugh.
The Rushd Gothe Mosque has been open for a year, and has a woman as the Imam. Yep, that usually gets you into trouble.
The interesting thing is that she has people showing up from the Muslim religion, and wanting to participate with it. Gays accepted? Well....yeah. That usually wouldn't work either.
The full veiling business? No....that isn't on their agenda and they consider it to be more of a control-device than a religious device.
Odds of this spreading? You could suggest in twenty years that twenty Mosques of this type might exist around Germany and involve a lot more Muslim youth, with the older folks going to the old-fashioned type Mosques.
It is this evolution that I was talking about or suggesting....but it's a long drawn out phase.
The 16a Discussion
A lot of this hyped argument being generated over the past ten days within the political arena of Germany, and potentially bad enough to call for a new election....revolves around Article 16a (2) of the Basic Law (the German Constitution).
16a says....that there is NO fundamental right for asylum (like it mentions in the preceding paragraph) if the guy or gal in question passed entry via safe third countries (hint: Greece, Italy, France, etc).
In this case, 16a says that Germany has no obligation to accept the asylum application.
In the Merkel definition of things.....there is always a obligation to accept the paperwork for asylum, thus giving the guy potentially 90 days or more, and potentially two years if he chooses to appeal the disqualification.
This is basically the entire argument being discussed, without mentioning 16a in public. You can ask a hundred Germans and most will tell you they have no idea this paragraph exists, and from the twenty who might know or grasp the paragraph.....interpretation can only be done by trained judges....not the common guy on the street. Course, your comeback is.....its fairly well written and any idiot could read the Basic Law and arrive at an understanding.
What really is the harsh reality here....is that there is no clear EU path to the solution, and this is the whole game plan for Merkel.....somehow convince the EU to write the gameplan and path ahead. And it kinda needs to be done prior to the EU election in June of 2019.....before it becomes a major public topic.
16a says....that there is NO fundamental right for asylum (like it mentions in the preceding paragraph) if the guy or gal in question passed entry via safe third countries (hint: Greece, Italy, France, etc).
In this case, 16a says that Germany has no obligation to accept the asylum application.
In the Merkel definition of things.....there is always a obligation to accept the paperwork for asylum, thus giving the guy potentially 90 days or more, and potentially two years if he chooses to appeal the disqualification.
This is basically the entire argument being discussed, without mentioning 16a in public. You can ask a hundred Germans and most will tell you they have no idea this paragraph exists, and from the twenty who might know or grasp the paragraph.....interpretation can only be done by trained judges....not the common guy on the street. Course, your comeback is.....its fairly well written and any idiot could read the Basic Law and arrive at an understanding.
What really is the harsh reality here....is that there is no clear EU path to the solution, and this is the whole game plan for Merkel.....somehow convince the EU to write the gameplan and path ahead. And it kinda needs to be done prior to the EU election in June of 2019.....before it becomes a major public topic.
The Numbers Story
It's a page three story in Germany that won't be discussed much. It's told by ARD (public TV, Channel One).
From January to May of 2018.....seventy-eight thousand (78,000) people came to apply for asylum in Germany.
If you go and estimate for all of 2018, that would lead around to 180,000 to 220,000 for the year......which is fairly close to the national average prior to 2013. On that number, no one should really complain. Well....almost.
To be honest, it's almost 12,000 fewer than the first five months of 2017.....which ought to be positive news as well.
But there's this one odd statistic in the system. Out of this 78,000.....just over 18,000 were were noted already in the system, via the EU's Eurodac fingerprint system.
Yes, they'd already signed into one country....got up, and walked out. So roughly a quarter of the 78,000 folks had already been signed in somewhere else in Europe. By the Dublin Accords, they can't do it.
This is part of the argument that the Interior Minister (Seehofer, CSU) is using.....respect the Accords, and force these people to return to the land that they signed into. This is what Chancellor Merkel is saying.....disrespect the Accords and allow them to continue.
Looking back....why did they go in the 1990s and start the Dublin Convention, which is what we have today in the Dublin Accords? They were already thinking of a way to limit 'shopping-around' for asylum. It was pretty simple.
How the public views it? Maybe five years ago....Merkel might have had 80-percent of the public lined up and supporting her take on the problem. Today? I doubt if she can find more than a quarter of the population who still support the open-door vision that she has. Oddly, in the 2017 election business....the news media and the two major parties....refused to discuss any of this business. They were going to pretend that it wasn't a big deal. Here we are, five months into this coalition, and obviously, it is a big deal.
As for the 18,000? By the Accords.....they should be forced back. I have my doubts that this will occur. If the Accords are stupid, then all Chancellor Merkel has to do (with SPD support) is dump the Dublin Accords. If you don't want to respect them.....dump them. But I doubt that they really want to do that either.
From January to May of 2018.....seventy-eight thousand (78,000) people came to apply for asylum in Germany.
If you go and estimate for all of 2018, that would lead around to 180,000 to 220,000 for the year......which is fairly close to the national average prior to 2013. On that number, no one should really complain. Well....almost.
To be honest, it's almost 12,000 fewer than the first five months of 2017.....which ought to be positive news as well.
But there's this one odd statistic in the system. Out of this 78,000.....just over 18,000 were were noted already in the system, via the EU's Eurodac fingerprint system.
Yes, they'd already signed into one country....got up, and walked out. So roughly a quarter of the 78,000 folks had already been signed in somewhere else in Europe. By the Dublin Accords, they can't do it.
This is part of the argument that the Interior Minister (Seehofer, CSU) is using.....respect the Accords, and force these people to return to the land that they signed into. This is what Chancellor Merkel is saying.....disrespect the Accords and allow them to continue.
Looking back....why did they go in the 1990s and start the Dublin Convention, which is what we have today in the Dublin Accords? They were already thinking of a way to limit 'shopping-around' for asylum. It was pretty simple.
How the public views it? Maybe five years ago....Merkel might have had 80-percent of the public lined up and supporting her take on the problem. Today? I doubt if she can find more than a quarter of the population who still support the open-door vision that she has. Oddly, in the 2017 election business....the news media and the two major parties....refused to discuss any of this business. They were going to pretend that it wasn't a big deal. Here we are, five months into this coalition, and obviously, it is a big deal.
As for the 18,000? By the Accords.....they should be forced back. I have my doubts that this will occur. If the Accords are stupid, then all Chancellor Merkel has to do (with SPD support) is dump the Dublin Accords. If you don't want to respect them.....dump them. But I doubt that they really want to do that either.
Friday, June 15, 2018
Wiesbaden: Old American Arms Hotel
From the local news folks in Wiesbaden, the rest of the story is laid out.
The Wiesbadener Stadtentwicklungsgesellschaft mbH (SEG) and the Federal Agency for Real Estate Tasks (BImA) wrapped up their purchase deal for the old US-Army run American Arms Hotel on Frankfurter Strasse today.
For those who remember the place. It was in operation for roughly forty years (ending operation around a decade ago). If you PCS'ed into Wiesbaden, you probably spent your first month in the family quarters deal (two bedroom apartment). It was easy walking distance from the old BX, and just five minutes walking from downtown Wiesbaden. I stayed in the hotel on two occasions. The bar was some dark lounge operation, and it was next to impossible to find parking within the hotel area. The positive was the short walk to the shopping district.
The original deal for the sale? Well....back in 2015, they had this thing worked out, and then they had this emergency use situation with refugees. So they cranked up the use for about a year, and now....it's time for the next stage.
What'll happen? Basically, they will tear down the old hotel, and build a mix of subsidized and free-financed housing. There's also talk of a term to be used as a 'new quarter' of Wiesbaden.
In three years, you probably won't recognize the old block area.
The Wiesbadener Stadtentwicklungsgesellschaft mbH (SEG) and the Federal Agency for Real Estate Tasks (BImA) wrapped up their purchase deal for the old US-Army run American Arms Hotel on Frankfurter Strasse today.
For those who remember the place. It was in operation for roughly forty years (ending operation around a decade ago). If you PCS'ed into Wiesbaden, you probably spent your first month in the family quarters deal (two bedroom apartment). It was easy walking distance from the old BX, and just five minutes walking from downtown Wiesbaden. I stayed in the hotel on two occasions. The bar was some dark lounge operation, and it was next to impossible to find parking within the hotel area. The positive was the short walk to the shopping district.
The original deal for the sale? Well....back in 2015, they had this thing worked out, and then they had this emergency use situation with refugees. So they cranked up the use for about a year, and now....it's time for the next stage.
What'll happen? Basically, they will tear down the old hotel, and build a mix of subsidized and free-financed housing. There's also talk of a term to be used as a 'new quarter' of Wiesbaden.
In three years, you probably won't recognize the old block area.
How the Merkel Spiral Goes
Shortly after the Wall came down (1990 era), members of the EU came up and signed what they'd call the Dublin Convention. It'd take seven years for it to be effective. What it basically said for those who signed in Europe....was that when asylum seekers rode into the country (by boat, car, bus, rail, or plane)....whichever was the FIRST country you arrived upon (from the signees)....that was the country that you MUST declare asylum, sign the paperwork, and establish your situation.
Around a decade ago, the third stage or agreement occurred, and it involved your fingerprints being collected and stored. You as the asylum candidate....HAD to accept fingerprints being kept.
So this great stage of confusion and political turmoil in Germany.....is mostly about the Interior Minister (Seehofer, CSU) saying that Germany will enforce the Dublin Agreement.
Yes, as a shock....Merkel and crew since 2013.....have laughed over the agreement and said no.....they wouldn't enforce it. Seehofer said that it'll be the central theme to his handling of immigration.
What happens now?
There's a 10-day period where some folks will try to talk Seehofer into either resigning or coming to some neutral point.
For the pro-asylum crowd in Germany (including some elements of the CDU folks, an awful lot of SPD folks, with the Greens and Linke Party), this is the beginning of the end for their standing on the topic of migration.
My general belief is that the coalition will come to an end around the last week of June, and unless the FDP stands up to the replacement partner (as the Merkel dumps the CSU)....it's done. Merkel is finished.
An election would be called upon by the first week of July, and would likely occur around early October (after the Hessen and Bavarian state elections).
Massive turmoil would then start up with this timeline:
1. Trump's tariff deal? That would end up being a campaign fight.
2. The reshuffling of Italy's politics to the right? That would end up being a campaign fight.
3. Turkey and Erdogan. That would end up being a campaign fight.
4. How to handle the Dublin Agreement and migration. That would end up being a campaign fight.
All that soft play from the summer of 2017 for the last election? Gone.
Around a decade ago, the third stage or agreement occurred, and it involved your fingerprints being collected and stored. You as the asylum candidate....HAD to accept fingerprints being kept.
So this great stage of confusion and political turmoil in Germany.....is mostly about the Interior Minister (Seehofer, CSU) saying that Germany will enforce the Dublin Agreement.
Yes, as a shock....Merkel and crew since 2013.....have laughed over the agreement and said no.....they wouldn't enforce it. Seehofer said that it'll be the central theme to his handling of immigration.
What happens now?
There's a 10-day period where some folks will try to talk Seehofer into either resigning or coming to some neutral point.
For the pro-asylum crowd in Germany (including some elements of the CDU folks, an awful lot of SPD folks, with the Greens and Linke Party), this is the beginning of the end for their standing on the topic of migration.
My general belief is that the coalition will come to an end around the last week of June, and unless the FDP stands up to the replacement partner (as the Merkel dumps the CSU)....it's done. Merkel is finished.
An election would be called upon by the first week of July, and would likely occur around early October (after the Hessen and Bavarian state elections).
Massive turmoil would then start up with this timeline:
1. Trump's tariff deal? That would end up being a campaign fight.
2. The reshuffling of Italy's politics to the right? That would end up being a campaign fight.
3. Turkey and Erdogan. That would end up being a campaign fight.
4. How to handle the Dublin Agreement and migration. That would end up being a campaign fight.
All that soft play from the summer of 2017 for the last election? Gone.
Thursday, June 14, 2018
Air Albania
I follow business news around Europe a good bit, and I noticed yesterday the announcement of a new airline in Europe.....Air Albania.
Yes....finally....an airline that is focused upon Albania. I know....it's not a place that people typically dream about or discuss for vacations.
The airline? It's a deal between the Albanian government (owning 51-percent of the deal) and Turkish Airlines, who will own the rest. The destinations out of Albania? Mostly going to cities within an hour of Albania. Somewhere in the mix, I would expect at least two flights a day out of Frankfurt. No one says the quantity of jets involved. My humble guess is that we are talking about four to six jets to start with.
From this period of 1945 and on up to the past decade....Albania would be described as the "Mexico of Europe" (my title). Part of this was deserved because of the thug-like government that existed, and part of this is due to economics. In the past decade? Things have changed. Most will say that the government situation is 100-percent better than in the 1980s, and that tourism is finally starting to exist in the country.
The thing about Albania is that you could drive from the north end to the south end in about 2.5 hours. Going east to west....maybe 45 minutes. From the one American that I spoke to, who had been there (a decade ago)....he described it a 'land where time was lost'....meaning that it was still a quiet and peaceful place without a lot of tourism.
Now with Air Albania? Well, that's the thing. If you got around to forty flights a day arriving in the country, and 10,000 tourists roaming the land daily...it'd become something different. The charm and character wouldn't be the same.
Yes....finally....an airline that is focused upon Albania. I know....it's not a place that people typically dream about or discuss for vacations.
The airline? It's a deal between the Albanian government (owning 51-percent of the deal) and Turkish Airlines, who will own the rest. The destinations out of Albania? Mostly going to cities within an hour of Albania. Somewhere in the mix, I would expect at least two flights a day out of Frankfurt. No one says the quantity of jets involved. My humble guess is that we are talking about four to six jets to start with.
From this period of 1945 and on up to the past decade....Albania would be described as the "Mexico of Europe" (my title). Part of this was deserved because of the thug-like government that existed, and part of this is due to economics. In the past decade? Things have changed. Most will say that the government situation is 100-percent better than in the 1980s, and that tourism is finally starting to exist in the country.
The thing about Albania is that you could drive from the north end to the south end in about 2.5 hours. Going east to west....maybe 45 minutes. From the one American that I spoke to, who had been there (a decade ago)....he described it a 'land where time was lost'....meaning that it was still a quiet and peaceful place without a lot of tourism.
Now with Air Albania? Well, that's the thing. If you got around to forty flights a day arriving in the country, and 10,000 tourists roaming the land daily...it'd become something different. The charm and character wouldn't be the same.
News Observation
I sat last night watching the ZDF (German public TV, Channel Two) late news.
Around a year ago, for at least a month....ZDF and it's news folks spent a fair amount of time dumping on the terrible nature of nuclear war, and how President Trump was getting everyone nearer to a nuke war with North Korea. Expert after expert would come on....hype the terrible instability that was approaching, and talking about the lack of expertise that Trump had in handling crisis periods. War is a very bad, bad, bad thing....was the theme of the ZDF news telecasts.
So a year passed....President Trump goes off to Singapore, and this vastly different world opens up where the nuke crisis is dissolved. Denuclearization was the theme everywhere you looked two days ago.
What did ZDF cover last night? That President Trump had taken actions to threaten world peace by accepting dialog with North Korea's Kim. Yes, for about five minutes of the late news....that was the theme. President Trump lacked the expertise in handling a non-crisis period. They found the right experts to conclude the report.
The staff at ZDF probably grinned the whole time that this 'gimmick' was played out and figured that a vast number of the German public bought off on their intellectual argument. The problem is....most Germans aren't that stupid, and they remember precisely what the words were a year ago, and this whole flip-flop makes no sense, unless you were boozed up, on drugs, or just plain crazy.
How many Germans watch public TV news? Back in the 1980s....you probably had more than seventy-percent of the adult German public who caught at least two or three nights per week. Today? I would suggest fewer than 20-percent watch two or three nights per week of the public TV news (ARD, or ZDF). If you go to age groups....the 15-to-30 years old group is probably less than 10-percent.
As much as both public TV news groups think that they can draw the German public along some theme....I think they've lost a fair number of viewers over the past decade or two. The flip-flop routine? Just one of a dozen problems that they have.
Around a year ago, for at least a month....ZDF and it's news folks spent a fair amount of time dumping on the terrible nature of nuclear war, and how President Trump was getting everyone nearer to a nuke war with North Korea. Expert after expert would come on....hype the terrible instability that was approaching, and talking about the lack of expertise that Trump had in handling crisis periods. War is a very bad, bad, bad thing....was the theme of the ZDF news telecasts.
So a year passed....President Trump goes off to Singapore, and this vastly different world opens up where the nuke crisis is dissolved. Denuclearization was the theme everywhere you looked two days ago.
What did ZDF cover last night? That President Trump had taken actions to threaten world peace by accepting dialog with North Korea's Kim. Yes, for about five minutes of the late news....that was the theme. President Trump lacked the expertise in handling a non-crisis period. They found the right experts to conclude the report.
The staff at ZDF probably grinned the whole time that this 'gimmick' was played out and figured that a vast number of the German public bought off on their intellectual argument. The problem is....most Germans aren't that stupid, and they remember precisely what the words were a year ago, and this whole flip-flop makes no sense, unless you were boozed up, on drugs, or just plain crazy.
How many Germans watch public TV news? Back in the 1980s....you probably had more than seventy-percent of the adult German public who caught at least two or three nights per week. Today? I would suggest fewer than 20-percent watch two or three nights per week of the public TV news (ARD, or ZDF). If you go to age groups....the 15-to-30 years old group is probably less than 10-percent.
As much as both public TV news groups think that they can draw the German public along some theme....I think they've lost a fair number of viewers over the past decade or two. The flip-flop routine? Just one of a dozen problems that they have.
Wednesday, June 13, 2018
The Hessen State Election Polling
I've talked about it a couple of times.....that the Hessen state election is about 100 days away now. You might see some hype going on. Some posters might appear shortly. HR (our regional public TV network) had a brief discussion over the election polling.
The numbers right now? Well....it presents a problem:
CDU: 31 percent
SPD: 25 percent
AfD: 11 percent
Linke Party: 8 percent
Greens: 13 percent
FDP: 8 percent
The CDU is currently partnering up with the Greens and would prefer to continue that situation....but the CDU is weakened enough that the numbers won't work for a coalition unless you have a third partner.
The odds of this? In general......having a three-way coalition is like having a root-canal without any pain-killer. It's just about impossible to arrange three parties into that type of situation. The only optional third group might be the FDP Party.
The odds of the CDU going back to a relationship with the SPD? I would say it's better than a 50-percent chance.
The numbers right now? Well....it presents a problem:
CDU: 31 percent
SPD: 25 percent
AfD: 11 percent
Linke Party: 8 percent
Greens: 13 percent
FDP: 8 percent
The CDU is currently partnering up with the Greens and would prefer to continue that situation....but the CDU is weakened enough that the numbers won't work for a coalition unless you have a third partner.
The odds of this? In general......having a three-way coalition is like having a root-canal without any pain-killer. It's just about impossible to arrange three parties into that type of situation. The only optional third group might be the FDP Party.
The odds of the CDU going back to a relationship with the SPD? I would say it's better than a 50-percent chance.
Chat Stuff
It barely deserves a mention....but the managing director of the German Cultural Council (Olaf Zimmermann) got himself into the headlines over the past week here in Germany.
He basically went out and suggested that all of the public TV forums (note: they only occur on public TV anyway, commercial German TV doesn't do forums)....ought to take a one-year break and change talk formats. In particular, he wants them to just stop talking about integration or asylum, or anything that could relate to immigrates.
The idea is....if you don't talk about it in some public TV forum, then things cool off, and go to a neutral zone.
I sat and pondered upon this logic.
First, what Zimmermann may not realize is that a fairly large segment of the German population don't watch the public TV forums. Among the fifteen to thirty year old crowd....other than the university 'kids'....no one watches the stuff. From the remaining crowd? I doubt if you could find three Germans out of ten that might occasionally watch the forums. So we might be talking about out of 82-million....perhaps three to four million who might watch the talk forums.
Second, if Zimmermann is correct....why limit the chat on just asylum, immigration or integration? Why not include limiting chat on diesel cars, the health care system, taxation, crime, and the EU? There are various topics while rile people up and you might want to consider just limiting public discussion in general.
Third, the question might be asked....do public forums change public perception anyway? The intellectual argument is yes....in every single case....forums cause you to pick the 'right' conclusion. In reality? I might go and suggest that at least a third of the people who watch these forums....have opinions that are concreted down and the forum does little to change their feelings.
Finally....if it's bad to engage in this discussion on a public TV forum....wouldn't be bad if you had three Germans meet in a city park and conduct the same discussion? Shouldn't you go and make some law that public discussions on possible voltaire topics illegal? Just stop public debate in general? In bars, in restaurants, at cafes?
Here's the thing....if the public TV controllers reach some conclusion of agreeing on this, without announcing it (just secretly agree to do none)....it'll take less than six weeks for the public to figure this out, and then start laughing over the decision. So their comeback? Why bother having forums, they all end up in arguments? Yep, so dump the forum shows and just go back to plain old fashion murder or krimi movies, or show reruns of Baywatch on ARD or ZDF.
He basically went out and suggested that all of the public TV forums (note: they only occur on public TV anyway, commercial German TV doesn't do forums)....ought to take a one-year break and change talk formats. In particular, he wants them to just stop talking about integration or asylum, or anything that could relate to immigrates.
The idea is....if you don't talk about it in some public TV forum, then things cool off, and go to a neutral zone.
I sat and pondered upon this logic.
First, what Zimmermann may not realize is that a fairly large segment of the German population don't watch the public TV forums. Among the fifteen to thirty year old crowd....other than the university 'kids'....no one watches the stuff. From the remaining crowd? I doubt if you could find three Germans out of ten that might occasionally watch the forums. So we might be talking about out of 82-million....perhaps three to four million who might watch the talk forums.
Second, if Zimmermann is correct....why limit the chat on just asylum, immigration or integration? Why not include limiting chat on diesel cars, the health care system, taxation, crime, and the EU? There are various topics while rile people up and you might want to consider just limiting public discussion in general.
Third, the question might be asked....do public forums change public perception anyway? The intellectual argument is yes....in every single case....forums cause you to pick the 'right' conclusion. In reality? I might go and suggest that at least a third of the people who watch these forums....have opinions that are concreted down and the forum does little to change their feelings.
Finally....if it's bad to engage in this discussion on a public TV forum....wouldn't be bad if you had three Germans meet in a city park and conduct the same discussion? Shouldn't you go and make some law that public discussions on possible voltaire topics illegal? Just stop public debate in general? In bars, in restaurants, at cafes?
Here's the thing....if the public TV controllers reach some conclusion of agreeing on this, without announcing it (just secretly agree to do none)....it'll take less than six weeks for the public to figure this out, and then start laughing over the decision. So their comeback? Why bother having forums, they all end up in arguments? Yep, so dump the forum shows and just go back to plain old fashion murder or krimi movies, or show reruns of Baywatch on ARD or ZDF.
Short Poison Story
Back in 2016.....this 27-year old Tunisian guy came to Germany. Migrant, asylum-seeker, immigrant....whatever.
He started his paperwork and shortly after that....got married to a German who had converted over to Islam. He was in a pretty sure position for staying in Germany.
But oddly, he had this curious nature about castor-seeds. He bought some via an online distributor. The cops started to look over his background and found that he was talking about and was interested in going to Syria. Then he went out and bought some chemicals that you would use to convert castor beans over to ricin.....you know....the stuff that you can kill thousands with.
At that point, the German authorities said enough, and got a judge to sign the search warrant.
All of this going on in Koln.
ARD covered this in the day, and it's a curious piece. The German who converted and married him? No one says much. His intention or plan with the ricin poison? No one says much there. But I think this worries the authorities a good bit.
He started his paperwork and shortly after that....got married to a German who had converted over to Islam. He was in a pretty sure position for staying in Germany.
But oddly, he had this curious nature about castor-seeds. He bought some via an online distributor. The cops started to look over his background and found that he was talking about and was interested in going to Syria. Then he went out and bought some chemicals that you would use to convert castor beans over to ricin.....you know....the stuff that you can kill thousands with.
At that point, the German authorities said enough, and got a judge to sign the search warrant.
All of this going on in Koln.
ARD covered this in the day, and it's a curious piece. The German who converted and married him? No one says much. His intention or plan with the ricin poison? No one says much there. But I think this worries the authorities a good bit.
That Murder Case Turns into a Mess
So it comes out today that Iraq is complaining about the way that the Kurdish cops released the accused murderer of the Mainz teenage girl, without an extradition treaty in existence. They say....he needs to be released and returned to Iraq.
What happens now? At the beginning of this murder episode when the guy had left Germany and was known to be in Iraq....the German Foreign Minister and the Attorney General of Germany (both SPD Party members) said that this would be a very long episode because NO extradition treaty existed with Iraq.
What happened? The Interior Minister called up the Kurds and asked their assistance....within 12 hours, they had the guy. Then they said....you need to hustle in here and get him. Then both the Attorney General and Foreign Minister stood up and said 'no'.....no extradition treaty....no way.
The German cops then went on their own (shockingly) and picked up the guy.
What happens now? I think that Iraq will play hard-ball and say that it needs to be a long process, and that the Germans need to hand the accused over. Both the Foreign Minister and the Attorney General will order his release.
At that point, a massive amount of negativity will come down upon the SPD Party (in the midst of an election period, leading to the fall of 2019 in Hessen and Bavaria). This one single action could carve out a third of their votes (my humble guess).
But here's the odd factor. Iraq could ask the mother if she wants to press charges, and I think she will. Germany will forbid the cops from participating or providing DNA evidence, but they can't stop the three or four private citizens who are witnesses in some way. The fact that the guy already made a confession with the Kurdish cops? Well....yeah, that is a big problem for the guy to get around.
So here's the odd factor.....if this Iraqi court episode unfolds, they can assign the death penalty, and it probably won't take more than five days of court action to reach that. So the SPD Party would help to achieve his death sentence if they hand him back over.
In some ways, this is an amazing turn of events and could be a major problem for the SPD Party to defend their campaign efforts in the fall. It could be a massive loss for them.
What happens now? At the beginning of this murder episode when the guy had left Germany and was known to be in Iraq....the German Foreign Minister and the Attorney General of Germany (both SPD Party members) said that this would be a very long episode because NO extradition treaty existed with Iraq.
What happened? The Interior Minister called up the Kurds and asked their assistance....within 12 hours, they had the guy. Then they said....you need to hustle in here and get him. Then both the Attorney General and Foreign Minister stood up and said 'no'.....no extradition treaty....no way.
The German cops then went on their own (shockingly) and picked up the guy.
What happens now? I think that Iraq will play hard-ball and say that it needs to be a long process, and that the Germans need to hand the accused over. Both the Foreign Minister and the Attorney General will order his release.
At that point, a massive amount of negativity will come down upon the SPD Party (in the midst of an election period, leading to the fall of 2019 in Hessen and Bavaria). This one single action could carve out a third of their votes (my humble guess).
But here's the odd factor. Iraq could ask the mother if she wants to press charges, and I think she will. Germany will forbid the cops from participating or providing DNA evidence, but they can't stop the three or four private citizens who are witnesses in some way. The fact that the guy already made a confession with the Kurdish cops? Well....yeah, that is a big problem for the guy to get around.
So here's the odd factor.....if this Iraqi court episode unfolds, they can assign the death penalty, and it probably won't take more than five days of court action to reach that. So the SPD Party would help to achieve his death sentence if they hand him back over.
In some ways, this is an amazing turn of events and could be a major problem for the SPD Party to defend their campaign efforts in the fall. It could be a massive loss for them.
New Merkel Trade Chatter
I sat and looked over page two news in Germany, and the German Chancellor...Angela Merkel....spoke up on a complaint of President Trump. She says that the US actually runs a significant account surplus (if you use all of the EU) if you factor in 'services' or the whole services industry. So then she rattled off that the whole method of adding up global trade needs to be updated.
Talking over services? It includes: advertising, accounting, cleaning, funerals, education, entertainment, fashion, healthcare, nursing, insurance, IT services, financial and loan services, media, investigative services, law, online services, sex industry, sports business services, travel, tourism, visual arts, wedding industry, language training industry, etc.
The problem she has in bringing this up...is that there are no tariffs in this type of industry...there are visa-control numbers. Virtually every nation that I know of (especially Europe)...requires you to have a work-visa and there are various rules to this. If you were to open up a MAJOR bucket of worms, just go and include this industry into the chatter, and ask how ‘fairness’ would be measured and monitored.
Taxation collected? That's the thing....every one of these service groups that might be US related....is registered and they pay German taxes, with very little of the profits shifted back into the US because of the laws in place by the US Congress.
Trump’s likely Tweet? So the German chancellor wants to include German hookers, American actors, and Mexican cleaning ladies into the trade talks?
Talking over services? It includes: advertising, accounting, cleaning, funerals, education, entertainment, fashion, healthcare, nursing, insurance, IT services, financial and loan services, media, investigative services, law, online services, sex industry, sports business services, travel, tourism, visual arts, wedding industry, language training industry, etc.
The problem she has in bringing this up...is that there are no tariffs in this type of industry...there are visa-control numbers. Virtually every nation that I know of (especially Europe)...requires you to have a work-visa and there are various rules to this. If you were to open up a MAJOR bucket of worms, just go and include this industry into the chatter, and ask how ‘fairness’ would be measured and monitored.
Taxation collected? That's the thing....every one of these service groups that might be US related....is registered and they pay German taxes, with very little of the profits shifted back into the US because of the laws in place by the US Congress.
Trump’s likely Tweet? So the German chancellor wants to include German hookers, American actors, and Mexican cleaning ladies into the trade talks?
Tuesday, June 12, 2018
BamF in the News Again
In recent weeks, I've essayed a fair bit over this scandal at the Bremen BamF regional office (responsible for approving visa actions for Bremen). It has been page one news for the most part and hyped up by the national news media. I have pointed out....it seems to be a five-star scandal, but oddly enough.....no one seems to be arrested or charged (usually meaning that it's a fake scandal).
Well....N-TV (the commercial news network in Germany) picked up the story this morning, and told a curious slant to the episode (the scandal).
Some folks associated with the national public radio and TV news crowd have been asking questions. From what they gather....this audit story that started the whole mess, has holes in it. The audit laid out 1,371 asylum decisions that were revolving around the Bremen BamF office....but oddly enough, they were only responsible for 142 of them. Roughly 10-percent. Responsibility over the individual cases often went out to other regional offices.
Then they turn to this odd story....so far, only one single person accused of anything. Yep, that's it.
There's even doubt about substanted charges and home searches were done on marginal facts. The guy with the charges? An Interpreter. He'd actually been in some type of disciplinary action for illegally copying documents.....getting himself banned for a while.
So N-TV says.....the testimony of the witness in this case that drives everything.....probably isn't going to work well to charge the boss of the regional BamF office.
A scandal that goes nowhere? Well....yeah. Will the news media crowd even stand up at the end and admit this entire scandal that they wasted hours and hours briefing the public and getting the public stirred up about the BamF folks....was wrongly hyped? And the effort by the opposition parties to really dig into this fake scandal? Well....that's something you notice as well.
Well....N-TV (the commercial news network in Germany) picked up the story this morning, and told a curious slant to the episode (the scandal).
Some folks associated with the national public radio and TV news crowd have been asking questions. From what they gather....this audit story that started the whole mess, has holes in it. The audit laid out 1,371 asylum decisions that were revolving around the Bremen BamF office....but oddly enough, they were only responsible for 142 of them. Roughly 10-percent. Responsibility over the individual cases often went out to other regional offices.
Then they turn to this odd story....so far, only one single person accused of anything. Yep, that's it.
There's even doubt about substanted charges and home searches were done on marginal facts. The guy with the charges? An Interpreter. He'd actually been in some type of disciplinary action for illegally copying documents.....getting himself banned for a while.
So N-TV says.....the testimony of the witness in this case that drives everything.....probably isn't going to work well to charge the boss of the regional BamF office.
A scandal that goes nowhere? Well....yeah. Will the news media crowd even stand up at the end and admit this entire scandal that they wasted hours and hours briefing the public and getting the public stirred up about the BamF folks....was wrongly hyped? And the effort by the opposition parties to really dig into this fake scandal? Well....that's something you notice as well.
Saxony Polling
I often point out polling surveys and how state elections are moving within Germany. I noted this morning via Focus (the German news magazine).....that in Saxony, they've done a regional poll, and the SPD is in serious trouble.
The current trending?
CDU, 32 percent
AfD, 24 percent
Greens, 6 percent
SPD, 9 percent
Linke Party, 19 percent
FDP, 6 percent
The next election though? They just had the state election in the fall of 2017, so 2022 would be the next one.
For the SPD, there's a fairly negative trend going on, and they've yet to hit rock-bottom.
The current trending?
CDU, 32 percent
AfD, 24 percent
Greens, 6 percent
SPD, 9 percent
Linke Party, 19 percent
FDP, 6 percent
The next election though? They just had the state election in the fall of 2017, so 2022 would be the next one.
For the SPD, there's a fairly negative trend going on, and they've yet to hit rock-bottom.
A Beer Story
So, this is a beer story.
Here in Germany....probably 99-percent of all beer sold in the country....has a percentage of alcohol. On the other end of the spectrum, there's a very small amount of beer brewed....which is alcohol-free.
We can discuss the trend here, and the fact that some folks just want fake beer for it's taste and can easily drive after drinking fake beer. If you asked a hundred Germans about this....I doubt that you'd find more than three of them who might occasionally drink fake beer. But there is a market for it.
I noticed today....that the Odenwälder brewery Schmucker got into the news here in Hessen. HR reported this story.
What the brewery says is that "Meister Pils" had some kind of labeling issue and it's listed as NON-ALCOHOL, but apparently 5,000 bottles were shipped out....being full-up alcohol. They've put out a warning but it'll be hard to track down folks who bought it.
Roughly, that adds up to around five pallets.
The odds that this will all be recovered? Well...here's the thing. A lot of guys might go and buy two or three six-packs to sit in their basement for six months before they use it for some party, and wake up to realize that this alcohol-like taste.
Here in Germany....probably 99-percent of all beer sold in the country....has a percentage of alcohol. On the other end of the spectrum, there's a very small amount of beer brewed....which is alcohol-free.
We can discuss the trend here, and the fact that some folks just want fake beer for it's taste and can easily drive after drinking fake beer. If you asked a hundred Germans about this....I doubt that you'd find more than three of them who might occasionally drink fake beer. But there is a market for it.
I noticed today....that the Odenwälder brewery Schmucker got into the news here in Hessen. HR reported this story.
What the brewery says is that "Meister Pils" had some kind of labeling issue and it's listed as NON-ALCOHOL, but apparently 5,000 bottles were shipped out....being full-up alcohol. They've put out a warning but it'll be hard to track down folks who bought it.
Roughly, that adds up to around five pallets.
The odds that this will all be recovered? Well...here's the thing. A lot of guys might go and buy two or three six-packs to sit in their basement for six months before they use it for some party, and wake up to realize that this alcohol-like taste.
The Internet Story
One of the odd things that Germans will harp on....in a negative way....is that a lot of villages throughout Germany.....don't have 'fast internet'. By fast internet, they are talking about DSL speeds, or 3,000 Kbps or 3 Mbps.
If you live near a metropolitan city (Frankfurt, Mainz, Berlin, Munich....for example)....then the odds are 99-percent you have fast internet. If you live 80 kilometers north of Frankfurt, in the middle of a rural region....the odds are that you don't have fast internet.
So it's a politically sensitive topic.
The German federal government figured out that it was politically worth the effort, and voted to set aside 3.5 billion Euro (a lot of money) to bring fast internet to rural areas. There's one catch....paperwork.
That's been over a year now. How much has been spent? Well....they haven't even crossed the one-percent point. Why?
What the communities and small towns are saying is that the paperwork involved....is too complicated. They are bogged down in figuring out the government mandated actions required, and the cost estimates necessary to get the funding. 3.5 billion Euro sitting there....and they can't grasp the paperwork required to spend it.
You would think that one single guy would come up and get suddenly smart, then appear at these city council meetings and just say....for 5,000 Euro, I'll fill out every single form the correct way and get you hooked up to a half-million to ten million Euro grant for your internet. Or you could even find two college guys who'd wise up to this whole thing and they might do it for twenty cases of beer for each application.
If you live near a metropolitan city (Frankfurt, Mainz, Berlin, Munich....for example)....then the odds are 99-percent you have fast internet. If you live 80 kilometers north of Frankfurt, in the middle of a rural region....the odds are that you don't have fast internet.
So it's a politically sensitive topic.
The German federal government figured out that it was politically worth the effort, and voted to set aside 3.5 billion Euro (a lot of money) to bring fast internet to rural areas. There's one catch....paperwork.
That's been over a year now. How much has been spent? Well....they haven't even crossed the one-percent point. Why?
What the communities and small towns are saying is that the paperwork involved....is too complicated. They are bogged down in figuring out the government mandated actions required, and the cost estimates necessary to get the funding. 3.5 billion Euro sitting there....and they can't grasp the paperwork required to spend it.
You would think that one single guy would come up and get suddenly smart, then appear at these city council meetings and just say....for 5,000 Euro, I'll fill out every single form the correct way and get you hooked up to a half-million to ten million Euro grant for your internet. Or you could even find two college guys who'd wise up to this whole thing and they might do it for twenty cases of beer for each application.
That Murder Case: More Facts
I've essayed six or seven pieces on the murder of this Mainz teenager, and the Iraqi 20-year old guy accused of the crime. Today, another odd piece fell into the puzzle. This came from HR (public TV in the Hessen region).
I could probably lay out almost eighty facts over this murder and the people involved, which just surprises each day at things which beg questions.
Today....cops since day one have been saying that the Iraqi guy is 20 years old, and would therefor get into lesser sentencing procedures (if convicted). If he were 21, he'd be an adult.
Well....the Iraqi Consulate General in Frankfurt got into this today. He says that the guy in question is over the age of twenty-one.
How? Well....when this guy arrived in 2015....he had to fill out paperwork, and the Germans needed his birthdate. It would go on the asylum application and the visa paperwork.
So he complied....he wrote 3.11.1997. Month, day, year.
Well....Germans want it done in a certain style: day, month, year.
The Consulate General says the correct birthdate is 11.3.1997. So, he's over 21 years old.
If this is all proven true? Totally different case, and totally different outcome....he'd get twenty years. If he were 20 at the time....he probably would not have gotten more than eight years. Germans tend to see anyone who is twenty or less....as still being juvenile in nature. I know....most Americans would laugh at this, but that's the system of the past hundred years in Germany.
But this begs the question.....across Germany. Is it possible that a hundred-thousand asylum applications were made, and they made the same identical mistake? Why this mistake wasn't discovered in the review process? Well....again, another question.
Lots of facts to this murder, and every single one of these leads back to a question of how or why. I've never seen a crime episode that fell into the category of so many facts, and so many questions.
I could probably lay out almost eighty facts over this murder and the people involved, which just surprises each day at things which beg questions.
Today....cops since day one have been saying that the Iraqi guy is 20 years old, and would therefor get into lesser sentencing procedures (if convicted). If he were 21, he'd be an adult.
Well....the Iraqi Consulate General in Frankfurt got into this today. He says that the guy in question is over the age of twenty-one.
How? Well....when this guy arrived in 2015....he had to fill out paperwork, and the Germans needed his birthdate. It would go on the asylum application and the visa paperwork.
So he complied....he wrote 3.11.1997. Month, day, year.
Well....Germans want it done in a certain style: day, month, year.
The Consulate General says the correct birthdate is 11.3.1997. So, he's over 21 years old.
If this is all proven true? Totally different case, and totally different outcome....he'd get twenty years. If he were 20 at the time....he probably would not have gotten more than eight years. Germans tend to see anyone who is twenty or less....as still being juvenile in nature. I know....most Americans would laugh at this, but that's the system of the past hundred years in Germany.
But this begs the question.....across Germany. Is it possible that a hundred-thousand asylum applications were made, and they made the same identical mistake? Why this mistake wasn't discovered in the review process? Well....again, another question.
Lots of facts to this murder, and every single one of these leads back to a question of how or why. I've never seen a crime episode that fell into the category of so many facts, and so many questions.
Integration Summits: German Style
Once every year, around June to July timeframe.....the Chancellor of Germany holds a 'Integration Summit', where members of the political establishment, the pro-asylum agenda folks, and the various individuals with an interest in migration....meet.
It's been going on since the summer of 2006. You can go back to the first year, and note that right after they held that meeting....they went and had a Islamic Conference that went hand-in-hand with the previous week's summit.
A public relations campaign for the CDU and Chancellor Merkel? Well....yes.
The idea is to get across the news media and to anyone who views it....that the government cares about the situation....wants to accomplish integration with those seeking to be a part of Germany....and that the program is always evolving or improving.
Normally, the ministers who are part of the integration path....show up. So today, if you go through the ARD news listing, they noted that the Interior Minister (Seehofer, CSU) will NOT be there. There's speculation about this. Some suggest that he and Chancellor Merkel don't see eye to eye on the topic. Some say that recent events have given Seehofer more of a sour view on the Merkel vision ahead.
Do these integration summits ever amount to anything? You can Google up various news media pieces for each year, and they all had positive statements at the conclusion of the summit....feeling that things were focused and improving.
If you go and ask the general working-class German? There's debate....a fair amount of skeptical nature....and a feeling that it's just a PR-event with images and charming characters on the screen. It's like the G-7 summits and their lack of achievement but they continue because it's developed as a PR-event as well. Even if Merkel wasn't around, or the SPD were in charge....you'd see another Integration Summit.
Twelve years of Integration Summits, and the result? It would be curious to get ARD journalists to sit down and describe the achievements, or the public skeptical view of any real change over twelve years, but I doubt that will ever occur.
It's been going on since the summer of 2006. You can go back to the first year, and note that right after they held that meeting....they went and had a Islamic Conference that went hand-in-hand with the previous week's summit.
A public relations campaign for the CDU and Chancellor Merkel? Well....yes.
The idea is to get across the news media and to anyone who views it....that the government cares about the situation....wants to accomplish integration with those seeking to be a part of Germany....and that the program is always evolving or improving.
Normally, the ministers who are part of the integration path....show up. So today, if you go through the ARD news listing, they noted that the Interior Minister (Seehofer, CSU) will NOT be there. There's speculation about this. Some suggest that he and Chancellor Merkel don't see eye to eye on the topic. Some say that recent events have given Seehofer more of a sour view on the Merkel vision ahead.
Do these integration summits ever amount to anything? You can Google up various news media pieces for each year, and they all had positive statements at the conclusion of the summit....feeling that things were focused and improving.
If you go and ask the general working-class German? There's debate....a fair amount of skeptical nature....and a feeling that it's just a PR-event with images and charming characters on the screen. It's like the G-7 summits and their lack of achievement but they continue because it's developed as a PR-event as well. Even if Merkel wasn't around, or the SPD were in charge....you'd see another Integration Summit.
Twelve years of Integration Summits, and the result? It would be curious to get ARD journalists to sit down and describe the achievements, or the public skeptical view of any real change over twelve years, but I doubt that will ever occur.
Germany and Public TV
Most people who've read my essays extensively.....know that I am fairly harsh with the public TV crowd in Germany (ARD and ZDF).
Over the years, I've probably put up at least a dozen significant criticisms of the public TV landscape, their monthly 'tax', their overpayment of sports contracts, the news agenda, the public forums, the scripts selected for movie production, the 'game-shows', and so on. I'll even admit that I'm one of those people that believe the networks are on a course to either be downsized or totally reorganized within the next decade.
Today, I noted that the ARD folks are on a new PR-agenda....hyping their value to the viewers. The motto campaign? "We are your ARD".
It's featured via the network, the radio folks, and even the Internet.
All of this seeks to show the value of ARD and it's broadcasting to the general public. Part of this gimmick is to seem more open to the public.....answer questions....accept some suggestions and show they are people-friendly.
Why the effort? Well....if you go around the 15-to-30 year old crowd....they've basically given up watching it. My son (27 years old) will admit that in the past decade...he's not watched a single hour of public TV (either network). He works with numerous people who admit the same thing. All of these people are reaching a stage where they might make up one-third of the general voting public in the next election (2021). If any party comes out and says they want to dismantle the public TV networks or downsize the tax....this crowd will go and vote for that party. So ARD and ZDF are both fairly worried about their future.
The potential to change perception? Maybe with the folks in the age group of fifty or above.....they have potential to make their case. But I doubt if anyone under the age of thirty will buy into this PR-blitz.
Over the years, I've probably put up at least a dozen significant criticisms of the public TV landscape, their monthly 'tax', their overpayment of sports contracts, the news agenda, the public forums, the scripts selected for movie production, the 'game-shows', and so on. I'll even admit that I'm one of those people that believe the networks are on a course to either be downsized or totally reorganized within the next decade.
Today, I noted that the ARD folks are on a new PR-agenda....hyping their value to the viewers. The motto campaign? "We are your ARD".
It's featured via the network, the radio folks, and even the Internet.
All of this seeks to show the value of ARD and it's broadcasting to the general public. Part of this gimmick is to seem more open to the public.....answer questions....accept some suggestions and show they are people-friendly.
Why the effort? Well....if you go around the 15-to-30 year old crowd....they've basically given up watching it. My son (27 years old) will admit that in the past decade...he's not watched a single hour of public TV (either network). He works with numerous people who admit the same thing. All of these people are reaching a stage where they might make up one-third of the general voting public in the next election (2021). If any party comes out and says they want to dismantle the public TV networks or downsize the tax....this crowd will go and vote for that party. So ARD and ZDF are both fairly worried about their future.
The potential to change perception? Maybe with the folks in the age group of fifty or above.....they have potential to make their case. But I doubt if anyone under the age of thirty will buy into this PR-blitz.
More on the Local Murder
Focus, the German news magazine, had two brief updates on this Wiesbaden murder case (the victim being a 14-year old Mainz girl, and the accused being a 20-year old Iraqi). I've essayed about six times on the overall story.
So this morning....it's revealed by the local prosecutor (Oliver Kuhn) that they are seeking to verify various bits of information on the Iraqi guy. They now have figured out that he (and the entire family) used a different name upon arriving in Germany in 2015. No one says why, which might be an indicator of troubles back in Iraq already.
So there's some thought that he's not 20 years old. So the age business will be reviewed as well.
Then we come to this odd political slant on the story. The Kurdish police had no problem in picking the guy up, or deporting him (he was not extradited).
The effort by the Ministry of the Interior to pick him up.....resisted by the Foreign Office and the Ministry of Justice (both oddly occupied by SPD Party members).
So the Police (actually chief of the German police) went in a jet to pick the guy up.
It's hard to say if there's some type of political agenda tied into the handling of this, or if it's just plain old style politics.
So this morning....it's revealed by the local prosecutor (Oliver Kuhn) that they are seeking to verify various bits of information on the Iraqi guy. They now have figured out that he (and the entire family) used a different name upon arriving in Germany in 2015. No one says why, which might be an indicator of troubles back in Iraq already.
So there's some thought that he's not 20 years old. So the age business will be reviewed as well.
Then we come to this odd political slant on the story. The Kurdish police had no problem in picking the guy up, or deporting him (he was not extradited).
The effort by the Ministry of the Interior to pick him up.....resisted by the Foreign Office and the Ministry of Justice (both oddly occupied by SPD Party members).
So the Police (actually chief of the German police) went in a jet to pick the guy up.
It's hard to say if there's some type of political agenda tied into the handling of this, or if it's just plain old style politics.
Monday, June 11, 2018
Murder Update
It is a bit of an odd story (I've essayed about five pieces over the Mainz teenager murdered by the Iraqi 20-year old guy).....but it's worth laying this out.
This Iraqi guy had a chance to 'escape' and made his way to Dusseldorf.....boarding a plane to Istanbul with a short-term passport issued by the Iraqi embassy. From there, he and the family flew onto Iraq. The Germans called up and wanted to work up an extradition deal, but calmly said that it didn't have such a treaty with the Iraqis. You could predict this would be a mess.
But those Kurds looked at the problem, and then said....no, there's no need for an extradition treaty or the request for an extradition.
You see....he entered Iraq with a passport into his old country, but with a fraudulent name. At that point, he was still in Germany, with a visa application going on. So the Kurds said he's wanted by the Germans and they'd just return him. No real paperwork or extradition.
The lawyer folks back in Germany who wanted to hype up his basic rights of extradition? Basically screwed......there's no case for that.
The PR work going on? The government is going as far out as possible to show their tough nature on this, and the fact that this guy will have a day in court. Maybe it will relieve the public frustration a little.
The SPD Report
The SPD Party here in Germany came out with a report today to explain to the leadership of the party how they came to lose the 2017 election. The chief blame? Well....SPD likely voters simply didn't know what the Party was charged up about or enthusiastic about. In a simple way, the party just didn't have much of an outline on the path ahead.
Here's the thing....they paid someone to examine the loss and the strategy of 2017, to tell them that they didn't have an outline or strategy. Yeah, they paid money for this. The thickness of the report? 100 pages....more or less.
What will they do now? That's a fairly interesting question. They have roughly two years before things heat up and they go toward another election. Can they even develop a strategy? Or should they go ahead and start planning on another company to come in and explain to them how they failed to have a 'path' ahead?
Here's the thing....they paid someone to examine the loss and the strategy of 2017, to tell them that they didn't have an outline or strategy. Yeah, they paid money for this. The thickness of the report? 100 pages....more or less.
What will they do now? That's a fairly interesting question. They have roughly two years before things heat up and they go toward another election. Can they even develop a strategy? Or should they go ahead and start planning on another company to come in and explain to them how they failed to have a 'path' ahead?
So Why Can't Germany be Competitive, Without Tariffs?
While the intellectual folks and politicians work hard to dump on the US tariffs.....at some point, some of the smarter people usually get around to German tariffs that exist. You know.....the ones that have existed for more than ten years.....some more than twenty years.....some even longer than thirty years.
Shocker? Well...ask the German commerce folks about those tariffs.
The necessity for the tariffs?
German companies are capable of manufacturing just about anything you can dream up. However, once you establish the raw material cost, the labor cost, the health-care cost, the company taxation, the VAT, the cost of living.....then you come to 'X'. The problem is....this same product could be made in Malaysia for 19-percent less than 'X'. It might even be made for 4-percent less than 'X' in the US. Then count in the dollar to the Euro exchange rate.....which is NOT one dollar to one Euro. The rate is presently around 1.2 dollars to buy one Euro.
The tax business? Well....at the personal level, you have an income tax, a gasoline tax, a property tax, a dog tax, a VAT tax, a car registration tax, and so on. So your 180 folks who work for your company.....have to be paid a wage that makes sense and helps to to survive. Then your company has a tax as well. And if the product is sold in Germany, there's a 19-percent VAT on the item. So you can figure around 40-percent of the cost of the item.....goes back to some type of tax.
The blunt fact is.....with this extra tax weight and the cost of living.....a German company can't be competitive unless other competitors coming into Germany are stuck on a tariff.
So all that free stuff that the German is hyped up about and wants more of.....which relates back to taxes in some way.....has a counter-weight on competition. If you got rid of the tariff.....German companies would be forced to either relocate (out of Germany), to demand tax cuts by the government, or just fold up.
Pretty sour news, if you think about it.
So Merkel and the squad are stuck. They really can't sit down with Trump and discuss this tariff business because they are chained to a machine that cannot function without high taxation. If Trump wins? I'll let you ask that question.....think over it.....and come to a rational conclusion, and it's not a pretty image.
And if this tariff war continues on, with the US playing this as well? This puts the German product into a lesser sales category (maybe months later....maybe even three years later). So he's hurting them in the long-run.
Shocker? Well...ask the German commerce folks about those tariffs.
The necessity for the tariffs?
German companies are capable of manufacturing just about anything you can dream up. However, once you establish the raw material cost, the labor cost, the health-care cost, the company taxation, the VAT, the cost of living.....then you come to 'X'. The problem is....this same product could be made in Malaysia for 19-percent less than 'X'. It might even be made for 4-percent less than 'X' in the US. Then count in the dollar to the Euro exchange rate.....which is NOT one dollar to one Euro. The rate is presently around 1.2 dollars to buy one Euro.
The tax business? Well....at the personal level, you have an income tax, a gasoline tax, a property tax, a dog tax, a VAT tax, a car registration tax, and so on. So your 180 folks who work for your company.....have to be paid a wage that makes sense and helps to to survive. Then your company has a tax as well. And if the product is sold in Germany, there's a 19-percent VAT on the item. So you can figure around 40-percent of the cost of the item.....goes back to some type of tax.
The blunt fact is.....with this extra tax weight and the cost of living.....a German company can't be competitive unless other competitors coming into Germany are stuck on a tariff.
So all that free stuff that the German is hyped up about and wants more of.....which relates back to taxes in some way.....has a counter-weight on competition. If you got rid of the tariff.....German companies would be forced to either relocate (out of Germany), to demand tax cuts by the government, or just fold up.
Pretty sour news, if you think about it.
So Merkel and the squad are stuck. They really can't sit down with Trump and discuss this tariff business because they are chained to a machine that cannot function without high taxation. If Trump wins? I'll let you ask that question.....think over it.....and come to a rational conclusion, and it's not a pretty image.
And if this tariff war continues on, with the US playing this as well? This puts the German product into a lesser sales category (maybe months later....maybe even three years later). So he's hurting them in the long-run.
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