I sat this week and watched the re-positioning of the Russian 'northern-front', and have come to three observations:
1. In terms of sustaining the offensive with resupply convoys....this was failing on various levels. From the Belarus side....it's a 50-mile distance to Kiev. From the Russian border....it's about a hundred-mile distance (via marginal roads) or 120 miles distance via the better roads.
If you go and view the video collected....along this front, there's just a lot of burned-out tanks or vehicles left by the side of the road.
2. This deployment around the Chernobyl area was marginally planned, and the radiation burns on soldiers has probably triggered a lot of fear over competent decisions. It wouldn't surprise me if some orders were handed down, and refusal to comply came up a time or two.
3. Finally, I come to the idea of taking Kiev.....which six weeks ago....was probably the key element of the entire military operation.
I think reconnaissance on the part of the Russians and new reviews of what it'd take to conquer the city....deemed the taking of Kiev a reckless agenda. In simple terms, I think someone finally convinced Putin that you'd have to give up more than 50,000 young Russian men....to achieve some type of control of the city.
If you were a regular Russian sitting around Moscow at this point....you might be asking if the NAZIs are that powerful in the Ukraine, and is it impossible to defeat them? It's a comical scenario, but this is the device that Putin used to convey the need for the military operation.
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