Well....at this point in the 'poker-game', the best one can say is that Russia's Putin is holding a lousy pair of ones, and it would be best to get up and leave the table....admitting the losses.
The chief problem? He's used up 50,000-plus Russian conscripts (either dead, wounded, or captured).....with some suggesting the number might go as high as 80,000. The tank picture? Either damaged, left abandoned, or out-of-fuel....it's estimated at the beginning of August....the Russian losses were near 1,000.
Going now to full mobilization (the hyped-up event that would bring massive war to Ukraine)? It would have made sense in April to have done that, but with the losses in helicopters, fighters, tanks and limited ammo/shells left....it's just not a practical matter to go full mobilization (meaning every man and asset was dedicated to a full-up war, and not a special operation).
Conscripts and officers now skeptical of any decision made in Moscow? I would go and suggest the bulk of those on the Russian front in Ukraine have lost their enthusiasm.....waiting for Putin to get his bluff rewarded.
Just quitting now and saying all the Nazi Ukrainians have been killed? You could have done that in April and walked away without much loss of honor. Now? Zero gain is a major loss for what was expended.
In the past week, several government figures in St Petersburg and Moscow have said that the leadership 'model' Putin has used.....is unsuitable for the future, and he should resign. Odds of this? I would have laughed over this a year ago....presently, he's got a no-win situation and can only continue the war with losses mounting. Between now and Christmas....I expect some Russian unit at the front to stand down....meaning they refuse orders. In a matter of a week or two....this will lead to most of the units standing down, and you start to see massive chaos as Conscripts refuse orders.
At that point, it's hard to figure the Putin-bluff left at the poker table.
2 comments:
You're probably thinking 7 2 offsuit. I'm giving him a pair of three's. Not the worst possible hand, but very hard to bluff your way to a win given the state of the cards on the table.
On pure bluff potential? There's just not much left to bluff upon. This is where 99-percent of people leave the table. This is also the point where you stop talking about your greatness, or dreaming of statues to be built for your legend. Also....the Nazi chatter bluff is taken more as a joke on the streets of Moscow.
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