For most retired US military folks who did time in Europe in the 1970s/1980s....there was a general military strategy laid out. It would be a tank-war, and the Russian invasion would come fast-and-furious at the Fulda Gap. Army guys would sit for hours and talk over this strategy and how things would go....while chugging down beers.
Well....if you pose the Russia thing in 2022....it's a different kind of military strategy, and several remarkable things have gotten attention.
First, over the subject of leadership.....no one is really pumped-up over Russian military leadership, and the results of the past month.....might lead some people to say the scale of leadership is no better than what existed in Serbia or Iraq. It's not an insult....it's just that crappy promotions in the Russian system have placed General officers in position to demonstrate their marginal talents.
Second, the tank-war is crapped-out. You throw in the anti-tank missiles.....the tank 'war' is mostly a lose-lose situation.
Third, logistics demonstrated so far in supporting the Russian war-machine? Third-rate and easily defeated.
Fourth, training seems to be marginalized for the Russians.
Fifth, I doubt if anyone from the Russian frontlines is reporting actual tank, vehicle, or soldier losses. This goes to the Kremlin Generals....to Putin himself....none of them know much of anything.
So where does this lead the strategy difference from 1984? I'd say that roughly four weeks of NATO defensive strategy would normally lead to use of nukes to reset the balance in favor of the Russians.
2 comments:
Tank warfare maybe outdated but the US did just sell 250 M1A2 Sep tanks to Poland and they seem to appreciate it.
I think some people still envision some open plain tank-landscape, where armor changes the outcome.
But there are three curious things seen out of this 'war': (1) 'shoot-and-scoot' is hurting the Russian armor situation. The Ukrainians plan out a entry and exit for a convoy, then target them. (2) Tanks run off of fuel....so in this situation...the Ukrainians have prioritized the fuel tankers to the top of the list....leaving a lot of APCs/tanks sitting by the road (as a rich target). (3) Finally, they've proven it doesn't take a genius to operate the anti-tank weapons or Stingers.
On the M1A2 tanks....they might have a bit more protection than some of these older model tanks that Russia has put into service for this campaign. That's one plus in their favor.
I will say this...if the Russian take over the Ukraine, and go further west...they will be extremely weakened by losses. It would not be in their best interest to think things get 'easier'. I also think they are in the Iraqi-position after the Iran-Iraq war....depleted to a great degree and no one willing (or capable) to pay for their rebuilding of the Army.
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