Saturday, December 31, 2022

Five Questions

 1.  Was the Merkel-Russia policy of the past two decades a success?

Well....various journalists will argue about this, and even half of the CDU folks will deflect and just try to avoid answering the question....but the policy was mostly about letting cheap natural gas, oil and coal be bought by the Germans....keeping the economy always in a positive light.

Oh, and for the record.....don't go expecting much out of the Scholz coalition for the remaining three years on the Russia policy.

2.  Is 2023 a pretty historic year for Germany?

Well....a hundred years ago, there was an attempted Nazi putsch in Munich.  Bavarian police put it down, without any federal help.  It'll probably be discussed a good bit in 2023.

If the putsch had been successful in Bavaria?  It would have progressed onto Berlin, and a national civil war would likely have come from this mess.  With France still occupying the NW coal and steel regions....it would have created a serious end to the German coalition of states.   

3.  Winter heat-wave presently?

Locally, at 14 C for today, and 16 C for tomorrow.  Here's the thing....no one says anything about global warming because of the natural gas crisis, and dramatic costs for heat this winter.

4.  Isn't the bulk of Russia's decline in the war due to logistics?

While crappy leadership, poor strategy and exceptional dismal training are parts of this....yeah, the bulk of the 'show' is a logistics failure.  They weren't designing a plan for a 365-day war....it was supposed to be a 72-hour front....massive fall by Ukraine, and victory everywhere. 

I should add....the loss of 2,000 tanks probably doesn't set the stage for any resolution for the Russians.

5.  Is deindustrialization getting uttered a lot in Germany?

Probably every night,  via ARD or ZDF news....there's some piece where a manufacturing 'arm' in Germany has made manpower cuts, or noted a part of their production will be on non-German soil.  You can blame various factors on this....it's not one single problem.

But here's the key thing.....there's an approaching problem of limited manpower for various companies, and no national solution to counter this.  So, maybe industry moving out is a positive.  

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