Wednesday, December 7, 2022

This Raid-Coup Chatter From Today

 It's consumed a lot of ARD/ZDF and commercial news in Germany today....this raid which triggered police to arrest around 25 Reichburger folks.....who had some kind of agenda to overthrow the government of Germany. 

So to the five key questions:

1.  Were these idiots serious?

Somehow....they had gotten to the point of talking about a plan, and having some weapons in the mix.  However, if you brought this up to me and asked....could twenty-five folks, or even 2,500 folks trigger a overthrow of the German government....I would have mostly laughed.  Even if you said there were 250,000 people in the mix....I just don't see this coup business as being serious.

2.  Were these people crazy?

Just my humble belief....if you gave the twenty-five folks a sanity test....I'd give it a 50-50 chance that they'd pass.

If the judge involves triggers a mental review....it's likely they'd pass...but marginally.

3.  This whole belief that the Kaiser monarchy is still around?

Historically, throughout the 1920s.....there probably were more than 10-percent of German society who felt that the monarchy was a better situation than what the Reichstag could build up.  After WW II....that belief went 'south' and it's probably fewer than 20,000 Germans who advocate this belief today.

4.  The odds that the German police had a undercover guy or two in the Reichburger movement? 

I'd give it a 99-percent chance of being true.  

5.  Is there anyone much really watching this or fretting over the potential for a coup?

I suspect that around 10-percent of society will watch the whole thing, and mostly be entertained (a tragic part of society today) by the theatrics involved.

The bulk of society gave it two minutes of interest, then flipped the channel.   

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