Friday, December 23, 2022

What Ukraine Says About Russian 'Losses'

 A lot of BS, but then....you can't trust the Russian numbers admitted by themselves.

On tanks lost?  Ukraine says 3,000-plus.

On personnel lost (either dead or severely wounded)?  They suggest the Russians went over the 100,000 point today.

On helicopters lost? 267.

On fighters lost?  283.

On trucks, jeeps and fuel tankers?  4,615.

Cruise missiles used? Just over 600.

So what matters here?  I would suggest three things:

1.  On specialized fuel tanker trucks....it would appear in the first hundred days of the war, these were mostly wiped out.  So when you see forward tanks in operation....they are probably refueled by a standard gas station fuel truck....driven to the front.

2.  With the fighters and helicopters lost....Russia doesn't really have the production capability to 'whip' these out of some factory.  Even with the right design, and plugged-in funds....you could be talking about ten to fifteen years before the current losses are back up to 'normal'.  Note as well....in the 'old' days....it was the Ukraine who built aircraft and helicopters.

3.  Finally, on the losses of Armored Personnel Carriers (APCs).....there's a suggestion that almost 6,000 have been lost or damaged (around the Ukraine, it's hard to dispute this number).  You are looking at a 15-year production cycle on replacing these.

Without the oil and natural gas profits....it's hard to see how any of this can be resolved.  

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