Russia said today....bluntly...that if a Patriot system goes to Kiev...it'll be destroyed on day one.
Odds of this? Well....I would imagine that the Russians are now dedicating a lot of satellite coverage and looking at every avenue from the western side of the Ukraine....with roads leading to Kiev.
From the corner of Poland, over to Kiev, by convoy speed.....you have to figure a 12 to 15 hour ride. Getting set up? Anyone's guess but I would imagine it'd be operational in an hour.
The true question here....if the Russians were serious....they'd be firing cruise missiles in a massive wave. In some odd way, I think the strategy here....is to get the remaining Russian cruise missiles into a crappy 'end'. You could waste forty of them, and the Patriots would wipe out the arsenal....day by day.
A unlimited number? No. The Brits suggest there are around 500 to 600 left to the Russians.
It's more or less a baited situation...with no real production capability left to the Russians in the near-term.
The question then becomes....would Putin be stupid to fire forty missiles every single day (for 10 days) in some mindset.....of claiming he took out the Patriot's?
I admit....it's an odd way of progressing the war, but someone is figuring Putin is not really into long-term thinking.
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Well, given that they first thought it would be a 72 hour operation, I can sort of forgive his lack of long term thinking. But yeah, it's really just frantically plug away desperately without and probably sit and whine about why things didn't go to plan over some vodka at night.
Kind of funny how poorly they read Zelensky's character though. I'm guessing they thought he'd run away to the nearest ally and be leader in exile/hiding. I think the fact that he stayed completely changed the complexion of everything. Interested in whether you share that assessment?
The Ukraine (for the past thousand-odd years) has been this dramatic opera-like saga. Legends exist over the idea of crusaders (1090-1300) were left over and are part of the country's legacy today.
First, Zelensky's whole career was as a actor, and just happened to get some key part in a series....which was adopted as some national TV show. I suspect the FSB (KGB) had a hand in getting him into the election, and elected. In their mind, he would fold (like you suggest). They guessed wrong.
But there's a laundry list of a thousand things which the FSB has been wrong about. It's going to include NATO, the Germans, and even insider friends who are shaking their head about Putin's 'big' strategy (there's some 3x5 inch index card to explain this).
I read a piece two years ago from a US Army Lt Col who described escorting a Russian officer through a US Army exercise (showing the guy barracks, chow halls, the exercise itself). The Russian officer was shocked. NCOs running the bulk of leadership functions? Russians have never allowed that....it has to be officers. The idea that single company commander (Capt) could see a problem and correct things without involving serious leadership....couldn't be done in Russia's army. Decent living conditions and air-conditioning for barracks life? Russians would never have done that.
There is a 800-page book to be written at the end....how Putin screwed up, how the Army was never that capable, and how a marginal Ukrainian force just needed anti-tank weapons and advice....to carry out an offensive.
But the bulk of this whole story (still today) revolves around the perception of Nazis in Ukraine. You can't tell this story without talking about it, and laughing. That Putin would destroy the Russian economy....over this stupid Nazi accusation...is hard to believe. He actually drove McDonalds out of Russia (when they were making tons and tons of profit, ploughing tax revenue into the pockets of the Kremlin).
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