Friday, March 11, 2022

Five Questions To Ask Over The War

 1.  Will anyone ever trust Putin, ever again?  

Generally, he's a non-invite to any international meeting from this point on.  But I'll  argue that the top level of the Kremlin, to include the Oligarch community....are going to be seen in the same light.

2.  Russia turning into North Korea?

More or less, yes.  It won't be overnight, but I suspect the label by the end of 2023 will be XXL-North Korea.  Resumes from Russian chemists, engineers, and scientists will an active thing....with various people seeking to leave the country.  In a year's time, I might suggest one-million Russians are sitting beyond the border  without any ambition of ever returning.

3.   Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy  in the end?

I don't see him surviving.  But here's the interesting thing.....the 'puppet' installed by Putin to replace him?  He'll be likely dead within a hundred days.  The 'puppet' after that?  Dead within another hundred days as well.  

Zelenskyy getting a Peace Prize in 2022?  Just a suggestion.  

4.  Russia having the funds to rebuild their lost tanks and used-up rockets/missiles?

Well....if the US and EU slim their Russian energy needs down.....it'll take twice as long to rebuild the army.

5.  Russia's GDP to survive this mess?

No.  Expect 2022 and 2023 to be one-third of what they had in 2020.  

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