There's a major piece on Focus today which has somewhat alarming news.
The Labor Market and Occupational Research (IAB) sat and did the numbers research....to say that by 2035 (13 years away).....the German labor market will be missing 7-million laborers.
You'd be talking about electricians, mechanics, roof people, office folks, computer geeks, etc.
A big deal? Well...yeah.
The only way to get around a major problem? Basically go and recruit people from beyond the border....to come to Germany.
Getting the majority of society to accept this 'recruitment' idea? Getting two-thirds of them signed up won't be a big deal....I think. But then you come to recruitment.
So do you set up an office in Seoul, South Korea and offer up some movement-cost and work-visa program? Do you go into Mexico and start a German language program, with a two-year technician training program for 500 locals each year? Do you start to look at options of recruiting in Ghana or Kenya?
Considering the 7-million number....to be honest, you'd have to recruit and achieve some yearly number of 500,000 and have an active language/training program going on....without a lot of hiccups or delays.
2 comments:
Or a crazy idea is that you pay these people what they're worth and then more German's would take on the jobs. Paying more, they'd then he able to afford to have one person per household working like the old days (back before the split between GDP and median household income occurred) , then they'd have more kids who could continue a cycle of positive growth. Instead of a cycle of the ruling classes funneling money from the workers to the rent seekers.
I mean, it worked pretty well for decades until the late 70s and early 80's. But I guess we've seen what happens when we ask that generation to take responsibility for any of its actions.
This birth rate problem started around around 110 years ago. Having the two world wars didn't help, but this massive industrial capability meant that you had to bring in eastern Europeans, and Turks....to get through the 1960s/1970s.
I would say that there is a brewing problem where Germans don't want to work 40 man-hours a week, and in exchange for this 35-hour 'gimmick'....some accept less pay (willing nature, which is a bit shocking to a non-German).
On the pay-scale business...if you are a carpenter, heating tech, or roofer....you've got tons of business lined up, and schedules filled for a full-year ahead (I can testify to that issue). None of those people are complaining about wages.
The wage-problem people are the ones in marginal skill categories (shelf stockers, low-trained cooks. bus drivers, and the landscaping crowd). It's like bringing up the McDonalds people and how pitiful their wages are....but no one wants to pay 13 Euro for a McRib menu meal. Same issue for paying 4.50 Euro for a one-way bus ticket from your street to some street 3 km away.
One problem with the recruitment problem....once you explain to the South Korean guy or the Australian gal...what harsh reality exists in finding an apartment in Bremen or Mainz, and what it'll cost for a 'nice' place....they won't be that eager to attempt this idea.
It'll be curious to watch and see how this unfolds, and if the shortage permanently changes German culture.
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