1. As of mid-September, Germany was conducting 13 tests for each thousand residents. (BBC data, in comparison, the UK was conducting 27 tests for each thousand)
2. Are daily deaths from Covid-19 at the same level as in April and May? No, the daily mortality rate leveled off in late July (actually stepping down big-time in late June). .1 is now the general average, while the infection rate climbs.
1. The issue of 'clogging-up' the ICU beds has gotten discussed. So there's this idea....dividing Germany into five zones (X-number of ICU beds in each zone), and that helicopters or ambulance vehicles would take new patients and move them from zon3-A to zone-B, to balance out the system.
On paper, it might make sense. But if you were a Trier-resident and got assigned to Dresden....well....that's a heck of a helicopter ride or a all-day ambulance ride. The same for a Covid-guy from Hamburg, who gets assigned to Kassel.
2. Belgium went to max closure (starting Monday)....grocery stores remain open. All other shops are supposed to close.
3. The German federal government made a clear statement that they will not go and audit private apartments. Police will only be used for public locations.
4. Newly infected numbers (over a 24-hour period), 26,986 (continuing an upward trend).
Even in my local town of Wiesbaden (291k residents)....newly infected, 112. 580 folks are in some form of quarantine.
5. Lot of legal chatting going on with restaurants preparing to sue the government and have the shut-down affecting them (starting Monday) to be suspended or thrown out. Odds of this happening by next weekend? Zero, I would suspect....but within 2 weeks? It's possible.
As of this afternoon, both Kassel and Wiesbaden cancelled out their Christmas markets (both were to open in four weeks). Covid-19 cited as the threat to trigger this.
Financial loss?
For some of the stands (candles or Christmas ornaments)....this was their one and only enterprise for the year.....making a sum to clear monthly costs for the next 12 months.
For these food stands...it's probably over 200k Euro on profits lost for each.
The draw card for shoppers to come into the heart of these towns, to spend money? Well, that's another matter. You could be looking at a fair sum of money lost for this season.
Depressing season? Yeah....you get the look and feel of that.
So this is a unique Islamic terror attack (at the Catholic Church in Nice), and it bears out a minute or two of consideration.
Brahim Aoussaoui is the 21-year-old guy who killed three people within the church, with a butcher knife.
Back in September....Aoussaoui had paid some group to get him to a rescue point in the Med....where a European charity-rescue ship came to 'save' him and the others.
So they get carried over to Lampedusa (the isle)....where they do three weeks of Covid-quarantine.
Then....he gets taken over to Bari, an Italian town on the coast.
Remember....he's an asylum guy.
Three weeks pass....somehow he gets over to Nice, France....then it's there that he kills the three folks in the Catholic Church.
Was he this crazy as the charity-rescue ship picked them up? Well....you don't know.
Was he this crazy as he went into Corona-quarantine on Lampedusa? Well....you don't know.
Was he this crazy as he landed at Bari, Italy? Well....you don't know.
Over the next month, this story is going to be told over and over in France, and people will sit there asking stupid questions that neither the French government or EU can answer.
At the end of this....some sharp criticism is going to start up and put heavy demands that the rescue ships just plain halt their operation until someone can assure the general public that they aren't bringing unstable folks into the EU.
Added note: It is rather odd, upon arriving in Italy....the government did a quick review and said 'NO'....you can't declare for asylum or immigration, then gave him a slip of paper that said you need to depart in seven days. Did they go back to see what he did in seven days? No.
You can admire the Italians....there's probably a couple hundred folks a week that they bring in, and hand the slips of paper to.....which have no value. How many folks are walking around Europe with the 7-day papers? No way of telling....maybe thousands...maybe tens of thousands. It opened up a fair amount of hostility toward their method of operation.
The first hint? Today, via a comment by the Saarland Premier-President (Hans, CDU).
It was a simple question by the news folks, and Hans responded that if the numbers don't show a change....then the extension to the shut-down-lite would continue on.
The odds of the public accepting this into December....Christmas season? There would be a lot of grumbling and probably 50-percent of the nation would be extremely negative about this. They generally all assume to some degree...it's a 30-day deal.
The fact that this came from outside of the Berlin 'political-machine'? I think most of the CDU-CSU-SPD folks have been briefed and told not to gossip or talk over the shut-down-lite deal.
The skeptics seizing upon this hint? Someone will come around to Chancellor Merkel by Monday and ask her if an extension is possible, and she'll do one of her 'wait-and-see' comments.
The true problem here....if numbers don't retreat....then you could be looking at a 100-day shut-down-lite 'party' and lots of unhappy campers.
ARD (public TV, Channel One) did a business report this morning....DIW expert economist....Marcel Fratzscher.
He's fairly blunt....come the end of December, the wave ought to start up.
The thing missing from the interview? The size of this wave. Whether intentional or by accident....they didn't want to ask about the size of the bankruptcy wave approaching.
There's no doubt that hotels and tourism business operations are seriously damaged by Covid-19. This November shut-down? It's not going to help in any way....with expectations of the public that travel for the next six months will not return to any normal rate.
But bankruptcy problems will exist for even the smaller coffee shop or pub operations as well. It wouldn't surprise me if a quarter of kinos/theater operations....end up by mid-2021 as closed permanently.
Over the past couple of months, I've essayed a piece or two over the spiral of Wirecard (the German money-card company).
There's probably enough chatter now for a 400-page book to be easily written over the failure of the company, and the illegal behavior that they demonstrated.
This morning....via ARD (public TV, Channel One)....there's this odd new report over Wirecard and their board of directors.
ARD says....that one member of the board (Austrian guy, Malsalek) was probably a undercover agent of some type for the Austrian government.
German federal prosecutor office is the authority suggesting this, and apparently asking a lot of questions. Did the Austrian federal prosecutor office know about this? It's not clear.
It appears that the Austrian federal prosecutor folks knew Malsalek, and had a connection to the guy. Maybe just a 'friend' of the undercover agent crowd? You just don't know.
Comments out of Vienna? Nothing.
Germans talking to the British and Americans over this? Apparently. It wouldn't shock me if both also had undercover agents within Wirecard, and knew exactly what they were, and simply viewed particular cases as 'interesting', and letting Wirecard exist in an illegal way, as part of the 'trap-mechanism'.
So prepare for the Germans to come up by spring of 2021, and admit....various governments (maybe even the French, Chinese, Russian, and Swedes)....all had secret operations existing....while the Germans had nothing and just gazed off in different directions. It'll be embarrassing to admit this....a dozen-odd countries using a German money-transfer company, to spy upon, and the Germans themselves couldn't do the same thing.
Back in 2012, while I worked around Arlington, VA....I started to notice some women (never men) who shopped in pajama-like clothing. I was told at the time....in China, this fashion had started up and was completely acceptable there, and apparently in Arlington as well. Several months would pass, and I stood at the regional airport....waiting on a flight....to find another American woman in pajama-like clothing boarding a plane as well.
Since 2013 (now retired in Germany)....I hadn't seen the pajama routine practiced here.
Frankly, Germans typically have a certain standard. I do agree....German guys don't have a problem in putting on jogging pants and going to the coffee shop or bakery. German women? They would normally NEVER go that casual.
So I opened up N-TV today, and there's this story from up north, at a Edeka grocery.
Store manager (German guy) is standing there, and there is this female customer with pajamas, house slippers, and pink dressing gown....shopping in his store. Her daughter? They don't give the age, but I would assume at age 5 or 6....same attire.
The German manager didn't waste much time.....he went straight to the woman and 'complemented' her on the attire. I'm not talking about the nice complement style....but the harsh one. German gal packed up in a huff, and left quickly.
Manager basically said....he won't put up with this style of behavior or attire.
I'm kinda amazed that such a manager exists in Germany who'd go.....confront in a direct way, and just tell someone they were dressed in a bad way.
1. Best quote of the day, related to the new ban rules for Monday? By Markus Krall: "The only thing that should be locked (down) in this country is the government."
A fair amount of criticism among the general public, and probably will translate over to political chaos for November.
The odds of another shut-down? Virtually zero at this point.
2. New RTL poll says two out of three Germans agree to Merkel's shut-down-lite directive.
It's not a great number but at least half the nation is going along with this.
3. New predictions within Hessen (my state) that the ICU bed situation will reach zero in about three weeks. Alternate plan being pushed up....they'd cancel elective surgery operations and turn those beds into Covid support.
The folks talking about this....say the ban rule change for Monday, does little to nothing to flip their prediction.
I should point out....just because you get Covid....does not mean that you get a slip to check into the hospital. The vast number of people (probably over 90-percent) are given home-rest slips....to quarantine there.
4. Corona-frustration is a phrase being coined now, and used by mental-health experts in Germany.
5. The German Golf Association is demanding an exemption to the sport ban rules. They say....since the whole thing is out of doors....with social distancing 'normal'.....they shouldn't be banned.
6. The 'deal' for German business operations shut down by the November mandate? Basically, you get 75-percent of your income that was reported for November 2019, from the federal pot of money.
A good deal? Well....you'd say what about the 25-percent of income that isn't coming? Yeah, that's the real item of discussion. Some pubs and restaurants are sitting there in a very negative state of mind....there's no fairness to the 'gift'.
7. No matter where you are in Germany on Monday night.....there is a booze-freeze from 11 PM to 6 PM, for public consumption of alcohol. So even if you had a six-pack with a friend on some city park bench at 1 AM....that's illegal and would be fined. That's the deal for the whole month of November. Drinking in your house or on your patio? Still ok (at least for now).
8. You can travel and use hotels, but ONLY for business-related situations. No tourism can exist for the month of November.
9. Shopping on Monday and the rest of November? Well.....the rule is one customer per each ten square meters. I would imagine some guard will be at each grocery store, and monitor the incoming and outcoming customers (again).
10. The absolute minute you are noted as 'positive' on a Corona test, you are to go into quarantine then. No stopping off for beer or groceries....failure to comply is a 500 Euro fine.
11. If you do group travel to work (some unions arrange for a 7-to-10 pax van to transport folks from one town to the industry)....all occupants in the van must wear a mask as of Monday, for the entire trip (each way).
12. The funding 'pot' of money for compensating companies for the loss of profits? Well....if you dig into this story, it amounts to 10-billion Euro. A fair amount of discussion has started up. Majority of business folks don't believe it'll cover the extent of requirements.....in fact.....they suggest it'll exceed 30-billion Euro by early December. Do the Bundestag folks know this? Hard to say.
13. As of Monday, if you are walking in any area where the 1.5 meter distance cannot be ensured.....the mask is MANDATED (period, no exceptions).
14. As of 7 PM last night (Thursday), 16,286 new infections were reported in the previous 24 hours. Deaths in the same period: 92. 83-million residents, for reference.
As for my local area (Wiesbaden), the new infection number for the past 24 hours is 108, with a total of 505 individuals in the community on some form of quarantine. Total of 291k residents, for reference.
15. More German lawyers are standing up and suggesting that the new ban rules can be challenged in court, and possibly overturned.
16. For the fancy color graphic used nightly by the public news folks....it was a color-coded deal. This week, they had to go and invent a new color (for areas with 150 infections or more per 100k people). The new color? Black. Really stands out when you gaze at the map.
17. Among all the ban rules put up and new.....there's this one ban rule which is begging questions. The German authorities invented a rule that says that 'body-hugging services are forbidden....starting Monday'.
I paused over this....wondering what they meant by body-hugging. Hookers and prostitutes would have been spoken in a different way. Maybe there's some type of commercial service in Germany that I'm unaware of....where you pay someone to come up and hug you once or twice a day.
It's best not to ask questions over this....it'd just lead to some conversation that goes on for an hour or two....where a German talks real personal stuff on hugging.
18. Finally, Frankfurt's airport chatted on Terminal Three (under construction).
Normally, the plan was for it to be somewhat operational by the end of 2021 or the beginning of 2022. Yesterday, they said they've slowed down the construction project (a lot). They admit....they don't even have enough operations to run terminal two at this point.
So the new operational date for terminal three? 2025.
I should note here....terminal three was supposed to be discount airlines (the no-thrills folks). It's also being built on the other side of the runway....away from terminal 1/2.
On jobs at the airport? They appear to have enough volunteers to take early retirement....that laying folks off in 2021 won't be required. On contractor workers? Well....different story. They are re-writing the contracts, and fewer folks will be required....so those contractors (probably by spring 2021) will be laid off by their contractor companies.
Chancellor Merkel came up to give a speech on how the extreme measures (set to start on Monday) were calculated, and gave a explanation to the logic involved.
Criticism? A lot. It came from the Green Party, AfD Party, FDP Party and Linke Party.
I would suggest it was the lowest point since becoming Chancellor in 2005.
Some of the criticism was correct. An example....short-work pay-coverage was strongly recommended to go up to the 90-percent level, and even 100-percent for the bottom wage-earners.
The fact that child-care centers are still in operations but restaurants aren't? Another example. There's no science or data to say any of the surge on infections....relate to restaurants.
Another example....aid for cultural circles and small business operations should have been calculated and been part of this shut-down for November.
If you gaze across Twitter today in Germany.....a lot of negative hype directed at CDU and SPD political figures.
The fact that an election is barely 11 months away? Yeah, this is fairly bothersome at this point. Both the CDU and SPD parties may have lost public support.
1. An over-the-counter Covid-anti-bodies test is now up for sale....59 Euro...via the shop 'DM'. You do the sample, mail it into a lab (figure 12 to 36 hours later)....you are told if there are anti-bodies in your system. It might shock some folks to find out that they've had a bout of Covid....without all the symptoms.
2. As of last night, we had 12,945 new infections in a 24-hour period. Nationally, since day one....we are at 10,196 deaths.
Locally, we had our 30th death since day one (city of 291k residents). Guy was 56 years old and had a recent 'other' illness. So you could say he was already in fragile health.
3. Lot of bar/pub owners in the Hessen region are grumbling over the closure (for four weeks, starting Monday). Some admit that with the spring shut-down....their cash-flow was already at a harsh position. Some had to lessen tables/chairs to meet city sanitation rules....so a 100-seat pub was set for 40-to-50 seats max after that shut-down.
Some folks are now suggesting that the state itself needs to step in and put money on the table for the losses of the year. They aren't talking about a one-for-one deal....but there has to be some 'help' in order for them to survive.
4. Looking over the regional rules.....even tattoo studios got on the shut-down list.
5. Finns conducted a test with particular dogs. It seems that not only can dogs detect you having Covid-19 (meaning you are putting off some scent)....but they can even detect it five days before a test can stamp you 'positive'....which means some type of smell is occurring within your body, in that period of time.
More tests to likely occur, but it begs a number of questions.
6. UK test and study seems to suggest that your anti-bodies situation (after you complete a bout with Covid-19)....goes through a rapid downward period. They didn't come out and say directly....but even if some vaccine is approved and everyone gets it....the effective nature of it is questionable. You probably would have to repeat the vaccination within six months (maybe even less).
7. France likely to have shutdown-lite rules as well.
8. A credit agency in Germany is suggesting around 8,300 cafes, bars, and restaurants are at risk for bankruptcy. That's roughly 15-percent of all operations across the entire nation.
Hard to see any state aid package coming to save the bulk of these. Sad thing is that the state taxed these operations under normal operations before Covid-19. In some way, they are 'owed' something for duty.
9. The RKI folks (the national experts on Covid-19)....are suggesting that it'll be probably around spring of 2022 before everyone is Germany is vaccinated for Covid-19. If this was to be a often-repeated exercise? It begs questions.
10. Lot of harsh criticism being dumped via German Twitter over the shutdown-lite rules. Some of the bans might reach legal challenge status, but I doubt that they will be overturned. Some criticism already laid out....expecting this to go to the end of December. Government expectation is that the new infection rate will be reversed....if it stays at same level or continues upward, I would suggest the extension very likely to absorb December as well.
At 6 PM....came a Chancellor live announcement over the terrible 'woes' now facing the nation and the need for more ban rules. Basically, for about a dozen minutes....she 'fell upon the sword'....explaining the need for harsh measures. After she finished....then came the SPD representative (the mayor of Berlin), and the CSU Party representative (Soder). Same deal....each gave a eight-minute explanation for falling upon the sword.
After that....for about five minutes....she answered some questions.
Then came the Hessen state Premier-President, and he gave a 20-minute 'falling upon the sword' presentation as well.
Acceptance of the new harsh rules? I would guess and say that 50-percent will barely notice much difference in their lives. For about 25-percenet of the German public....it's a harsh reality for one month (no bar action, no night-clubs, no movies, no sports activity at the fitness club, etc). This group won't be happy about the month and it's changes.
My general view? I would suggest four things:
1. I don't expect this to easily end on 1 December. I'm a bit skeptical and expect it to continue through December as well.
2. A lot of people will find alternate ways to 'party' and the police will be working hard to prevent that.
3. The harsh ban put on restaurants? There is ZERO evidence to suggest that anyone is getting the virus via restaurants in Germany. So putting them on the shutdown list was stupid.
4. The economy is really set now for a dismal 2020 ending. A lot of people won't see the cash being there for a decent Christmas.
In about two hours, there's supposed to be a big Hessen press conference with the Premier-President (Bouffier), which details out the next batch of state measures.....unrelated to the list that Chancellor intends to talk about tonight.
What's coming?
Kinos (theaters) are to be shut down for a month.
Trade fairs....shut down for a month.
Bars, clubs, discos, and restaurants to be closed. Pick-up of food to be allowed to stay open.
Entertain venues of any type....closure until 1 December.
All amateur sports facilities....shut-down as well.
Pools....closed until 1 December.
Hotels? No guests from 4 November, to 1 December.
Only members of your house, and one 'guest' house....may meet and socialize.
Schools oddly enough....stay open.
Gyms and fitness studios.....closed from 4 November to 1 December.
Shops and stores allowed open but with a couple extra 'new' measures (unknown what these will be....maybe severely limiting the number in each shop).
Gut feeling of public acceptance? The bar and club thing will be the toughest one for folks to accept. My guess is that cops will be on the move every evening and citing dozens of violations will be the norm.
The hotel operations? Serious jolt to their business and profit margin.
The odds of reaching 1 December and this getting extended? Well....that's the thing you really don't know. It would basically collapse Christmas for the entire state if this continued for December as well.
Update: For the Pfalz state (Mainz).....same list....their effort would start on 2 November and run till 1 December.
The EU court stood up today and had a judgement affecting the German trucking toll 'rules'. This was laid out in a decent news report via ARD.
Germany has a particular tax set up for truckers. It's supposed to cover (in their mind)....infrastructure cost and police/security cost.
Well....the EU court said infrastructure cost is not a problem, but you can't hand such a bill (tax) over for police and security.
So, there's tons of money there from years and years....which was illegally collected, from the trucking organizations.
For this one Polish company that started this court case...12,500 Euro of the tax will be refunded.
1. For last night, covering past 24 hours....the new infection number is 14,964 (RIK reporting this).
2. Swiss reporting indicates that the hospital system there will hit max capability in the next ten days. Retired doctors are being 'accredited' and eased back onto duty.
3. Chatter this morning indicates that veterinary services will be approved for Corona lab testing shortly.....to bulk up the testing business (pretty well maxed out now).
4. The discussion to close down restaurants? Well...today, it got brought up that this probably violates the Constitution if they attempt it (already done in March to May period). Opposition party (FDP) is talking over this.
5. Lot of chatter and social media discussion over 'alarmism', which is pointed directly at the Bundestag and news media.
Skepticism is at a all-time level (at least over the past couple of decades).
6. A newspaper out of Bavaria is talking over a serious problem with false positives (the number discussed....58 out of 60 tests). This discussion is triggering folks to now ask for a second 'confirmation' test....which is wasting lab capabilities because of the lack of trust.
7. The draft of the mini-shutdown discussion? Basically, they'd shut down discos, bars, pubs, and night-clubs. Hostility by the dance-hall/disco folks? They were just given a green light in the past three weeks. For most, this will be the bitter end.
If bars aren't open....one might speculate that beer and booze will be bought via beverage shops/groceries, and forest-parties (illegal) will be the trend to occur. Police will just be shaking their head....their job just got a bit more difficult.
More to come over the mini-shutdown tonight via the German news.
This is one of my historical essays, which covers a period rarely discussed, and not something that most Germans are aware of.
So in the early part of 1920...just as winter started to end, a brief civil 'war' (uprising) occurred in the NW end of Germany.....in the Ruhr Valley region.
Trigger? It's safe to say that a coup attempt was made against the new (fresh) Berlin government, and is referred to in German history as the 'Kapp Putsch'. Period of the coup? It's safe to say the coup attempt was on 13 March, but the factors to trigger it were already in play for about six weeks.
The play going on? This leads to a group in the NW of Germany who wanted old-style Prussian-military authority to lead the country....not democratic-leaning Weimar Republic stance.
The military reaction to the coup? Almost non-existent. Some might have been non-supportive but they didn't do much of anything to hinder the coup.
The political 'tent' begin to regroup and what they observed as that 'bolshevism' was the bigger threat....to which the officers of the military readily agreed upon. Once this understanding was concreted into place....the coup in a matter of hours was halted.
As for Kapp, the boss of the coup? Well....about a month after this....he ended up leaving Germany for Sweden.
So starting on 13 March 1920 and running for four weeks....the German military went on the march to the Ruhr Valley region to 'fight' the 'Bolshevik' threat (to be identified as the 'Ruhr Red Army').
Total number of members in the is 'Red Army'? Historians generally suggest 50,000. This ran through various elements (mostly all related to the Communist Party, unions, and the hardcore elements of the SPD Party).
Number killed in this four-week period? It's not an exact list. More or less....a thousand 'Red Army' members were either killed in the brief 'war', or executed after it ended.
From the German government side? Historians say that a minimum of 600 individuals were killed. The police killed in this period? Unknown.
It was a fairly rough period for the four weeks, and both sides practiced a lot of 'executions-on-the-spot', which no real authority exercising common sense.
If the coup in Berlin had not been halted, and the Ruhr Red Army identified as the 'real' threat? That's a curious part of the story.
It's quiet possible that Germany over 1920 would have broken up into several pieces (like it existed prior to the 1870s). The Ruhr region would have been some Communist state, and several other smaller areas would have suffered the same fate.
Permanent state of warfare going on throughout 1920, 1921 and possibly for several years? One could suggest that.
Why isn't this discussed much? The end of WW I (November 1918) just came on suddenly, and this whole next year is not something that Germans are that proud over or grasping in terms of significance.
1. There was a comment on Twitter this morning....discussing the impending shutdown over Covid. The German responded that 'the German economy hadn't been destroyed enough....so another lockdown was urgently necessary to finish up the job....Chancellor Merkel, please take over'.
There are various elements of German commerce which are barely surviving and I would suggest that 20-percent of the public is shaking their head over the direction of things, with no great expectations out of the coalition government.
2. Via social media commentary, some Germans are observing that a vast amount of the summer period with low numbers....was totally wasted. Efforts to protect vulnerable people (the older generation) should have taken place, and the working-class people should have been dealt minimal restrictions at this point in the 'game'.
3. Some social commentary is labeling the current government as not that much different from the old Erich Honecker government of DDR. Probably more sarcastic/cynical in nature....but the DDR were 'control-freaks' at the 9th-degree level.
4. Someone via social commentary pointed out that back in March/April....your basic choice of food was pick-up, and it was limited to burgers, doners, kebabs, and pizza. They fear the return of this type of atmosphere.
5 Another German made the sarcastic commentary....'we are on the right track....getting the death count up, and thus saving the pension program which was in a negative spiral before all of this happened'.
6. Fair amount of commentary on shifting of family budgets to meet absolute needs. Christmas spending? Lot of people chatting over a lesser sum to be spent this year.
7. Another German sarcastically pointed out (via social media) that various schools are officially open with 1,000 students attending, while the CDU Party is unable to conduct the December conference because they are in such fear of the virus.
I think the wisdom on the CDU Party cancellation is that 30-percent are over the age of sixty and you might wipe out a whole segment of the political party.
In 2020, there are around 1,734 movie theaters/kinos left in Germany.
In 1932, there were around 3,800 movie theaters/kinos in Germany (equipped for sound, I should note).
Virtually every sizeable town in Germany in the early 1930s....had a theater operation. I admit....some probably could seat no more than 100 'guests'. Some in cities like Berlin or Hamburg....were historical type structures.
There's a city-run operation in Wiesbaden....Caligari FilmBühne, which I'd strongly recommend if you wanted to get the look and feel of a 1920s/1930s cinema structure.
If you go down the list of German movie productions in the 1920s....a lot of this was escapist-type movies (Pandora's Box for example). Unusual efforts were starting to occur (Berlin: Symphony of a Metropolis (silent movie of a typical day in Berlin)).
Operations in the Covid-19 era? While re-opening has occurred, there's no doubt that the theater industry has been damaged in terms of profits. It wouldn't shock me if over the next twelve months....you might see at least 200 of these theaters go away.
A survey was conducted with Germans.....by the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom (discussed via Focus magazine). The topic....the stress out of Covid-19.
Around 50-percent of Germans were agreeable to say that they were living their lives within the ban rules and stress....it wasn't overwhelming them or seriously affecting them.
However, roughly 30-percent of Germans said their lives were seriously affected and they were quiet fearful of the virus. Near 20-percent said their social lives....cafes, dance-halls, bars.....were curtailed and it was a negative thing.
Long-term affect? I would go and suggest that with winter approaching....darkness coming on early....the holiday season looking marginal, the happy-path for Germans this year will be missing.
Back in the fall of 2018....Chancellor Merkel stepped down as the 'boss' (Party Chief) of the CDU Party. In essence, she held two jobs....Chancellor, and the head of her own political party.
So the idea here was to step down....bring in a new face, and the person would very likely be the Chancellor candidate in the fall of 2021 (national election time).
The person brought in?
Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (often referred to as 'AKK').Late yesterday, the regional court around Heidelberg....stepped into the mandated mask requirement for the mid-town/old-town area. The regional court said 'no', it was not necessary....going against the city council mandate.
A big deal?
Well....the court basically said that your 'duty' to wear the mask out-of-doors....hasn't been proven yet. Basically, they are asking for evidence or science that says otherwise.
Likely that it'll continue upwards in the court system? No doubt.
I would imagine that the various judges around Germany are all sitting there and asking themselves just how far the 'law' can go, and where or how science is supposed to be applied.
On another level of discussion....around Berlin from this past weekend....police came out to halt various bicyclists for wearing no masks. The bikers halted as commanded, then asked the police....to reference the rule.
Well...after the police pulled out the book on virus ban rules....the mask rule applies ONLY to pedestrians (not bicyclists).
I tried to imagine having 10,000 bicyclists riding around, with the mask on....then having shortness of breath.
Why the police went to this measure? My assumption is that some 'boss' ordered it and didn't grasp the whole meaning of the ban rule.
For the past two hours, I've been pouring over news media commentary from within Germany and social media commentary by private folks. This Merkel 'shutdown-lite' discussion is getting a fair amount of coverage.
The blunt of the idea is that bars, clubs, and restaurants would go back to shutdown mode.....like they were in March, April, and May.
The length of this shutdown? Unknown. No one is openly discussing this. It might be for four weeks....it might be for four months.
Accepted by all sixteen German states? I would go out on the limb, and suggest at least four states saying generally 'NO' to the idea. Basic reason? Maybe for bars and clubs, it might make sense, but no data (no scientific support) suggests that Covid-19 is surging because of restaurant rules/social distancing.
What data is saying....without any doubt....wedding parties (of 100 to 200 guests) are one of the chief ways that the virus is getting passed around. Maybe if the Chancellor declared that all guests of wedding parties had to submit for a virus test within 48 hours after the party.....that might be a major piece of the solution. So far, no one in the Berlin-political scene has wanted to suggest that.
What I generally expect?
Once you go to the shutdown-lite plan, and bars/clubs close.....go expect a huge number of young people to party it up.....in the forests or in older warehouse buildings. Expect older guys to put up a social bar in their basement and bring a dozen friends in to socialize or play darts/pool. You will just chase them from one situation, to another.
Cooperating or respecting the police? No, you are simply dragging the police into another mess where the general public doesn't respect them for the job they are doing.
So I'll suggest this....the trend-line drops slightly, but continues onward....which requires by late November....Shutdown-Extra-Lite. Germans then sit around and start laughing, realizing the 'joke'.
1. In my local town (Wiesbaden)....they registered the 29th death since day one (76 year old guy). Nationally, the death count stands at 10,072. Locally, the vast majority of deaths have been individuals over the age of 70 (with secondary conditions or fragile health).
2. This option being discussed by the Chancellor's office.....Shutdown-lite? Schools would basically continue on (open) with some minor restrictions added. Bars, pubs, and restaurants? The suggestion is that they'd close. Events? This was not described in detail, but they'd be shut down entirely. I'm not sure if soccer games fall into this category or not. Businesses? They'd stay open, with minor changes. Odds of this affecting the rate? Unknown.
3. Reactions in Italy to new ban rules? Major riots in the major urbanized areas.
4. The CDU Party conference which had been scheduled for 4 December? Cancelled. No suggestion of the next date. Serious impact? Lot of anger dished out by the pro-Merz group....they suspect that Merkel is arranging things to keep Merz from winning. Real threat? 1,000 members would have been gathered and mass problem with Covid-19.
5. Some study has been done to suggest a third of alcohol-drinkers are consuming more booze since the virus started in Germany.
6. Lufthansa is shifting 125 of their present fleet (operating) to non-op status, because of the Corona virus affect on winter tourism.
7. Frankfurt City has asked for federal police help now....to conduct people-audits in the city over the ban rules. A lot of this audit business involves pubs still being open after the curfew hour.
8. Darmstadt identified a four block by four block area in the middle of town, where masks must be worn on city streets.
I won't go into a lot of details, but Berlin police were called out to a 'party' that was going on, and folks were apparently walking around without masks. Registration of the guests? Zero. Number of people? 600....more or less.
So here's the thing....it was a 'fetish-party'.
For those in the US who are unfamiliar with the type of party....let begin by saying this, in Berlin....just about anything sexually goes. For well over one-hundred years....it's been that way.
Kinky stuff....rough stuff...costume stuff....role-play stuff....just about anything you can imagine, local Berlin folks have attempted.
So this party was organized, and no one really gave a 'damn' over Covid-19 ban rules. Maybe there's some kinky-Covid stuff in the middle of this as well.
Police reaction? They didn't say a lot...other than the guy who organized this.....probably will appear in front of a judge. Fine likely? I'd give it a 90-percent chance.
Another Chancellor-meeting with the 16 Premier-Presidents will occur on Wednesday afternoon (1 PM).
Expectations? No one is saying much other than more ban rules are likely to come, and this discussion of a shutdown (maybe a whole new word with less threatening structure) is to be lightly discussed.
No one....from the Berlin political folks.....down to the German citizen-level....wants a shutdown (my humble belief).
If it were to come now....early November, and run for two months (in the midst of the Christmas season)? It'd destroy any attempt by the major stores to recover in 2020, and lay out the path to various bankruptcy actions in 2021.
The odds that bars, pubs, and restaurants will be harshly affected? I noticed that Italy went to a pub/bar/restaurant shutdown at 6 PM. It'd really screw over the under 25 crowd, and probably create massive illegal drinking parties across the nation (in forests, abandoned buildings, and in basements), if this were applied in Germany.
So Wednesday night....prepare for a big presentation (probably after 10 PM), and probably starting 1 November.
Last night (Sunday), off ZDF (Channel Two, public TV in Germany).....came the short news segment of Berlin Direckt.
Generally, they select highly sensational political stories which are being hyped by political folks around Berlin.
So among the topics for the telecast....was this 'fear' over the culture of debate in Germany.
In simple terms....in the old days (before social media came along).....newspapers, public TV news, intellectuals, and political groups controlled the discussion and informed you (the general public) of the situation. I would include commercial news into this group, except they are more concerned with providing entertainment, and actually making a profit at the end of the day, with the bulk of Germans not that attracted to political chit-chat.
This 'fear' business? Well....it sensationalized it around Twitter commentary and the harsh words being uttered there. People are openly challenging 'facts' and condemning various positions.
Covid-19 alone? No, not exactly....but it is a big chunk of what is openly discussed if you gaze at German Twitter commentary.
This was a brief five-minute discussion and it's kinda obvious that the news journalists and intellectual crowd have a worry on their mind now. People are openly skeptical, and it tends to lead to political instability (at least in their mind).
A lot of Germans using Twitter? No. On social media use....Twitter ranks number seven (even Pinterest ranks ahead of it).
Name recognition among the heavy Twitter-users who are branded 'bad-boys' by the journalists? No....that's another issue. If you brought up ten of the top Twitter folks who are critics of public news or the Berlin political machine....none of the ten names would be readily recognized by the general public of Germany.
So why the worry? One might suspect that the arguments made and criticisms offered....are received now by more Germans, than a year ago. Covid-criticism has increased a good bit. Add to it....the fall national election of 2021 is not that far away now.
More to come? Public forum chatter probably will pick up this topic shortly and devote more forum time to it.
The leadership of the CDU Party (Merkel's right-of-center political party)....was supposed to have a big meeting in five weeks....to determine the party chief (not the Chancellor candidate). There's a discussion underway now....to halt the planning for this, and suspend the party meeting. Chief reason? Covid-19 numbers.
The necessity for the meeting? AKK (Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer), the current chief wants to exit the door, and whoever would be elected as party chief....would generally be slated to be the Chancellor candidate in the fall of 2021.
If you go back two years ago...AKK was brought in and hyped up. She was Merkel's hand-picked person to fill the Chancellor candidate's shoes. What she didn't grasp at the time....Merkel intended to dump a second job upon her.....Defense Minister. So with that job, came a lot of criticism. AKK has done well, but she's learned that this whole Defense Minister job has smeared a lot of negativity upon her. So, the exit makes sense.
Merkel screwing up and dumping two key jobs upon AKK? More or less.
So back to the idea of the party meeting (roughly 1,000 members) and the odds of cancellation. I'd say it's a 95-percent chance that the full meeting will not be held. Maybe they could crank up 10 smaller meetings with video-teleconferencing in the mix....but even that would be a mess for Covid-19 problems.
Waiting until March or April? That really opens up a mess with the election just six months away.
Whoever making the party chief job....not being the Chancellor candidate? This has been whispered around and is a rumor as well.
1. 227 German cities or districts are ID'ed as of today as 'hot-zones'.....meaning a serious amount of ban rules exist.
2. 12,754 new infection cases were reported for Saturday in Germany. The trend line since early September? Upward. Statistically, I would imagine the 20k per day point will be hit by mid-November.
3. If you were looking for data to prove infections upon German bus-travel, railway-travel, or staying at hotels....there just isn't any data to prove that point. On rare bus or train trips I've taken....everyone is masked-up and does a bit of sanitizer after leaving the vehicle.
4. German city with highest infection rate for past seven days? Berlin. Since day one for the city, total number of identified infections listed: mid-7000 range. Total deaths in the city since day one: 249.
5. Using the RKI-data, for each ten German infected....they infect 14 new people.
6. Right now across Germany, 12k ICU beds are in use for the Corona folks requiring serious care. Still empty and ready: 8k. I noticed five days ago....an arrangement was made for a Netherlands border community....some Dutch folks were 'trucked' to a regional German hospital because the Dutch area was so overwhelmed. Earlier in the year....empty ICU beds were offered to Italian folks as well.
German authorities also admitted that they've got a minimum of 10k more ICU beds ready....if they stop all elective-surgery situations (earlier in the year....they were halted entirely).
ARD reported that presently, out of 1,203 ICU patients presently....only 533 are being ventilated (44-percent).
7. Frankfurt Christmas market....fully cancelled. Added ban rules in the city....absolutely no public alcohol consumption in any public place from 11 PM to 6 AM. They aren't just talking about bars and clubs....they mean public parks, around the train station, and on the sidewalks themselves.
The idea that bars, clubs and pubs are having serious economic trouble? There's no doubt that 2020 is a pretty crappy year for the business side of things.
8. 600 protest folks gathered up in Frankfurt Saturday, under the banner of 'lateral thinking' which is a anti-Corona focus group. They hype criticism upon all ban rules.
Across Germany, I would suggest the skeptical crowd has reached some point where 15-to-20 percent of the general public feel that way. If it were nicer weather....more would gather.
9. The odds of a shut-down (as done back in March/April/May? I suspect some new phrase will be created....which equates to a 80-percent shut-down, and probably starts by mid-November for a sixty-day period.
The chief problem here....there is some public expectation of a normal Christmas existing, and if you really screw down the holiday period.....harsh mental issues start to pop up (more suicides), and it's a negative period in very serious ways. The suggestion of work situations triggering more infections? No one has shown any dramatic data to make that point.
Kontrollverlust loosely translates over to mean in English.....'loss of control' or 'fear of losing authority' (depending on which German is asked the question.
Lately, this term has been brought up a good bit.
In general, city governments, state governments, and the German federal government out of Berlin....have x-amount of authority and issue regulations or dictate laws. They tend to expect the general public to 'comply' or observe the law/regulation.
In the past.....especially if you get back to the end of 1919, the 1929 crash period, or the 1932 election period....compliance wasn't a guaranteed thing across Germany.
So we come to the Covid-19 period, and a fair number of Germans (presently, I'd put the number at 20-percent) who aren't really enthusiastic about the ban rules or the economic woes approaching.
In this situation....the politicians and folks with authority are having their little kontrollverlust moment.
The past week? Some public news folks have uttered the observation that health authorities and virus monitor-people are maxed out. The effort to identify carriers, and get potential virus affected folks to get tested? In some areas of Berlin....it absolutely maxed out....even with German Army members helping.
How does this play out in an election year approaching? Not well.
Last night (Friday), if you were viewing the live 9:45 PM news on ARD (public TV, Channel One).....they went to a live musical interview toward the end of the news piece.
On came the 'Artzen' (the Doctors). They were a West Berlin band which started up in 1982. They hit some peak in the late 1980s. Then came back for another effort around 1993. And in the past dozen years....made what you'd call another comeback.
A new album now? Apparently.
With the interview, came a brief song....via the national news.
A bit odd, and something that hasn't been done before for the 9:45 news.
1. 16,000 new infections as of last night reported in Germany (record level). Death numbers since day one....climbed over the 10,000-level as of this morning.
2. In my local town of Wiesbaden, since day one....out of 291,000 residents....the total infected stands at 1,667. New infected in past 24 hours? 63.
3. Lot of hype lately in Germany over sanitizing ultra-violet light devices being sold. Public TV last night did a test of three 'models'. All three proved to be ineffective and worthless. In strong language....they kinda discouraged people from wasting money on this type of 'cure'.
4. Frankfurt is repositioning itself on the Christmas market idea. Very close now to cancellation.
5. Darmstadt political chatter.....discussion is centered on the idea that schools and kindergarten operations can 'kick-out' kids who don't use a mask. Opening up a bigger mess when a kid is kicked out and then authorities step in with jail-time for parents who oppose the mask. Wild situation with implications.
6. Another round of positive test results at the Kassel refugee center....31 individuals came up with the infection. A lot of this is related to tight quarters.
7. Over past two weeks....German police in Frankfurt conducted 11k 'controls' on the general public. They wrote up tickets for 1,600 mask violations.
8. My son noted at his business (furniture)....police entered in the past week and did a walk over the entire store....with a couple of customers noted for having their mask below the nose (getting you a mask violation ticket). Out front of the building....was an imbis stand where the police stopped and asked for the customer listing that the guy is supposed to have. He had no listing of customers.....another ticket, 250 Euro fine on that issue.
1. Numbers now against March/April....a lot higher, and probably will exceed 30k new infections (per day) by Christmas period.
2. Another shut-down coming? They will invent a word which has the look and feel of the spring shut-down (maybe 90-percent of what they did in the spring)....but deny that it's a real shut-down.
3. Statistical data driving this up-swing?
The numbers go to 3 things: (1) Household passing....say kid #1 arrives from school....giving it to Dad, then Mom, and then kid #2. (2) Super-spreader events (weddings, birthday parties, group meetings). (3) Travel situations (not necessarily hotels) but just traveling to another country, or using some mass-group situation.
(Focus brought up this topic today).
Getting it via buses or trains? No data can prove that point now. It's even getting difficult to prove the point that you are threatened by hanging out at restaurants or consuming beer at some pub.
4. Germans tiring of nightly Covid news?
This past week, my wife (German) admitted that she's reached a level where she doesn't want more than 90 seconds of Covid news (so it better be compacted to only essentials).
I won't say the whole German public has gone this way, but I would imagine 50-percent of those over forty are getting tired of the topic.
5. Toilet paper selling out?
Well....yeah. In the past two weeks.....they started bulk-buying of toilet paper (again). It was a big deal in March/April/May. My local grocery (as of this morning) put up a sign....ONE single pack of toilet paper allowed to be purchased....per visit. Half the shelves were empty as of that visit.
To be honest, in the basement.....the wife has a four-to-six-month supply already sitting there, and it's hard to grasp why this one single item is sourced so often. This being Germany, I'd be thinking beer or wine would the item folks went after. Some folks are sitting there with a two-year supply stashed in the basement already.
6. Folks disobeying the mask deal? Since May (directed rule)....I've only seen 3 cases where someone did a shop visit without a mask. On trains and buses....no one skips the rule.
7. The numbers change constantly....but in general....98-to-99 percent of folks on quarantine....do it at home. If you find some German who got the slip to enter the hospital....he or she....is absolutely bad off.
8. New ventilation fans for schools and offices? Lot of development work going on and you'd be shocked at the filtering concepts coming up of university study groups. Some are reasonable....some are ultra-expensive. For 2021....I would imagine a ton of money will be spent by schools around the nation for the new technology.
9. Finally, home-office work is probably going to remain....even after the vaccinations start up.
Last night, I completed season 3 of Babylon Berlin. I highly recommend a viewing....preferably with the English sub-titles if you can find it. It was as good as season one and two. Some factors here:
1. In terms of clothing styles, habits, cars....it's a five-star effort by the production company.
2. In terms of relating the 1929 period (for season 3), building up to the stock market collapse....five-star effort here as well.
3. I probably would not watch Babylon Berlin season 3, without having started and viewed season one and two.
4. Season three dwells a lot on the coming period of the Nazis, along with political intrigue existing in Berlin at maximum levels.
5. Drug usage a high part of the 1920s in Berlin? Yes, and it's pretty well documented with the various drugs being used. Babylon Berlin doesn't skip this topic.
So thumbs up, it's worth watching. Season 3 has around 12 episodes....about 40 minutes each.
1. Lot of chatter going on that at 20,000 new infections per day.....politicians making some threat of a complete shut-down (like in March timeframe). Support and enthusiasm this time around? I would suggest that 20-percent of Germans aren't going to be cooperative and police will be doing a lot of extra arrests/detentions this time around. Timeframe? At the current rate....it's no more than two weeks away.
2. Biontech (vaccine company from Germany) hints that they will be ready before Christmas to start vaccinations. I should note....it's a regional company out of Mainz. As far as I can see....it's probably the only company that will be implementing this in Germany in 2020. The rest are spring of 2021.
3. 11,714 new infections reported in a 24-hour period, ending last night (Thursday).
4. Last night via public news....the journalists laid out this one odd fact......no one from the government can say any factual data exists to point toward hotels, train rides, or bus trips increasing the occurrence of infection. Home connections and school attendance can be pointed at....in terms of a higher degree of infection.
5. The higher rate of infection translating over to higher death by the virus rates? Yes.
6. Sealing off high-risk areas? This is now being openly discussed by politicians. It's basically the idea that you'd have a town of 3,000 residents, and maybe 200 infected, and you'd just shut the whole town off (entirely). I could see smaller towns and this working....but doing this in Frankfurt or Mainz? No....it'd be near impossible.
7. A second speech yesterday by the Chancellor.....stay home unless you have urgent business. General population viewing this.....split. I'd say virtually everyone has cut back on trips outside the home....some by 70-percent...some by 30 percent. To reach the level that she is talking about? Virtually impossible to get that type of public support.
8. Five worst areas for infection now: Berchtesgaden, middle neighborhoods of Berlin, Berlin-Neukolln, Rottal-Inn, Solingen.
9. Are masks over-rated? It's a curious question, and the chief of the German Medical Association (Reinhardt) basically said 'yes'. That got a lot of pro-masks folks all hyped up. They felt he should resign from his position. The science behind all of this? Marginally existing, and it's not something that university PhD types ever sat down to pursue as a research project. One of the issues to this discussion is the quality problem....going from very poor (non-effective) to very good (effective). If you pursued this and noted the choices of masks....only the 10-Euro masks (KN-95 types) would be recommended (my gut feeling).
There in the spring of 2020, as Covid-19 started to take off....various airlines just plain quit hauling passengers.....leaving around 55,000 Germans 'stuck'. The regions? China, Egypt, South Africa, Australia, Thailand, New Zealand, etc.
Several weeks passed, and these Germans 'stuck'....got fairly vocal and it finally occurred to the German government....they needed to do something. So, some deal was worked out with Lufthansa. The government put around 94-million Euro in, and the airline worked with each embassy....to fly x-number of jets into a central airport, and get the people out that way.
At the conclusion of this....to get on the plane, you signed an agreement deal to pay the government for their services.
Right now....around 12,000 invoices have been mailed out, and the bulk of this group have paid. If you didn't have the money.....they were even willing to accept a payment plan situation.
But in the mix....around 30 of this group have gone to court and said it's unfair.
Fairness to this deal? If the government hadn't offered up the 94-million....Lufthansa would NOT have been nice enough to make the trip. Could they have found a cheaper airline? Well....no one has openly discussed this part of the situation. I do agree....the airline had to fly empty to remote locations like Sydney or Auckland, and that empty flight had a cost factor as well. But I could have gone to Turk Air or Ryan Airways, and probably done it for 30-percent less.
If nothing had been done? Well...could you have waited this out for six months for some regular routine to have restarted in July/August?
This going to the Constitutional Court in Germany? Without any doubt.....it'll take another year, but I think it'll hit that level. The problem here.....to get a seat....you had to sign that paper to pay them back. So they had you in a pretty harsh situation.
This was discovered around in the late 1980s, and made into a fairly decent museum. My advice:
1. This was a Celtic settlement....going back to 2,500 years. It's near the Nidder River....but in the midst of a fairly rural area. Don't go up without a GPS.
2. Cost factor? 14 Euro for two to see the museum.
3. The statue on display....from 500 BC? Yeah it's a piece done in honor of the local 'prince' at the time. Yeah, it's a bit odd....big thick legs like you'd expect on a NFL linesman, but thin airs like you'd expect on some NBA guy. The facial expression....stoic in nature.
4. Allocate about 60 minutes to see the museum, 15 minutes for the cafe, and around 30 minutes for the outdoor walk around (the mound).
5. The mound not being the original mound? Well....that's part of the story....over the years, local farmers basically took it down. So it's been reconstructed here in the past 30 years.
6. In terms of Hessen places to go see? I'd rate it in the top 20 locations in the state. I will admit though....it is way out of the way and some towns along the way look like they did in the 1970s.
8. Finally, for whatever reason, there is a serious amount of lady bugs in this area. Sitting at the cafe, I probably had 200 land on me in a 20-minute period.
Around two days ago, crap hit the fan down in Berchtesgaden, Bavaria. With the Covid-19 numbers reaching serious levels....the authorities stepped in and basically said...if you are a visitor to the city, you need to pack and leave (ASAP).
BR (Bavarian public TV) reports the basic facts to the whole story.
No tests....no exceptions, just pack and leave.
Affecting numbers? The hotel folks in town say in the range of 2,500 folks were on vacation in the city.
Pissed off the hotel managers? To a massive degree. There wasn't even a 24-hour warning attached to the ban rule.
How long will this ban rule be in effect? Roughly two weeks. Course, if you think about it....they can repeat the ban rule.....any time.
If you think about the way that hotels run in Germany.....they all provide a standard breakfast, with bulk goods purchased during the week. So the larger operations probably have 1k to 5k Euro of food stashed in the kitchen.....which will spoil in two weeks, as this ban goes into effect. Help from the government? None.
So there on Tuesday afternoon....this curfew business started up. The rest of the ban rules affect the locals....like schools being closed, and you should remain at home unless it's medical appointments or essential work required.
The odds of this repeating? I'd give it a 50-50 odds. Just another reason why skeptical views exist.
Around three weeks ago (the 4th of Oct)....two German tourists showed up in Dresden. The two guys (both in mid-50s) were from North Rhineland Westphalia. No one says much over their tour plan. It might be that they intended to avoid out-of-country hassle/stress and just felt Dresden was a Covid-19-safe place to be in early October.
Somewhere in the walk around the 'Alt-City' (the heart of Dresden)....they encountered this one guy....with a knife.
Both visitors were stabbed in the back by this guy, with a kitchen knife.
One guy died later....the other survived.
So the cops were onto this....doing an investigation, based mostly off DNA left on the knife. They found the guy in the past twenty-four hours (at least reported that way via ARD, public-TV, Channel One).
The accused? Well....he's a 20-year old Syrian guy who came into the country five years ago. Oddly enough, he was already on the Saxony 'watch-list' as a radical Muslim extremist.
He'd been released from a prison sentence the week prior (juvenile jail), and had fulfilled his sentence (by law).
What got him into juvenile jail? Roughly three years ago (figure age 17)....he was noted for bodily harm on some folks, making threats, getting details/information on how to commit serious acts of violence against the state, and finally....he'd been busy trying to recruit folks for the ISIS war in Syria.
On threat 'status'....you'd rate him as a '9' out of ten.
The state of Saxony (odd they admit it at this point) says that he had actually become even more radicalized while in juvenile prison.....than he had been before. To suggest this...means that they monitored the guy, his chats, his communications, and watched all of this take place in the juvenile prison...while doing mostly nothing. You'd basically be admitting how stupid you were as a manager of a public safety program....but that's the layout of this story.
At this point, as of yesterday.....the state prosecutor has taken over the entire case. Public attention focused on this? Yes, in a massive way. You see...after the 2019 state election, as the smoke cleared....the AfD Party (the anti-migration stance group) had taken around 27.5-percent of the vote. It's possible that details of this murder will take a serious amount of attention against the government (run by the CDU Party) and anger people.
After he finished juvenile prison....the topic of deportation probably should have come up, and it should have been a simple pick-up at the prison gate....trip to a regional airport, and transport back to Syria. But that didn't happen. Preventative holding? There's not a lot in German law to handle that unless you really demonstrated a serious mental issue and were identified as a threat....but the managers in the juvenile prison never did that. You can ask dozens of questions over their handling but it doesn't correct the murder caused.
I noticed over social media.....this odd question lingers out there. This guy came by himself and some folks are asking the question....in 2015 when he arrived....was he really 15 years old? It's an unanswerable question. In fact, you really don't want to drag this out because it'd make a lot of people look pretty stupid in just accepting the guy's story....without real proof.
As for what happens now? If I were the defense....I would just claim mental instability and a massive 'crazy-factor'.....thus getting a one-way ticket to a German mental facility. The odds of this playing out? I'd put it higher than 50-percent.
Even if they just put him back in regular jail....for a murder episode, he'd just get a max of twenty years (meaning he's turned loose at age 40). The odds that he'll be even more radicalized after twenty years? Don't even ask that question.
My last observation over this....having been to Dresden, and walked on Schlosstrasse....it's a major part of the city's tourism angle. On a typical summer Saturday....there might be 20k people easily walking the street. The city authorities would have to surge up the police patrols....to reassure people of the safety. So a dozen more police on walking patrols....just because of this act? Yeah.....one might imagine that for the next twelve months.....you'd have to put the manpower there, because of this one crazy nutcase.
It'll be a hot story for about another 24 hours, then move to page six until the court case comes up (probably in nine months after a mental review of the guy). It's possible that an evaluation comes to the conclusion that he was 5-star crazy when he arrived in 2015, and no one ever examined him as part of the process.
1. German Health Minister, Jens Spahn, tested positive for Covid-19. The curious side-story is that in the day prior to the test....he'd met with most members of Merkel's cabinet. So, there is this suggestion that others may test positive in the next couple of days.
Spahn is the first member of the inner circle to have Covid-19. He's a young guy....in great health....he'll probably be out ten days. We'll probably see more of the number two guy in the Health Ministry (a virtual unknown to German society).
2. German health authorities reported 9,379 new infections as of mid-day Wednesday. Sets the record for 2020.
3. If you look over data for active cases of Covid-19....roughly 74k Germans currently in some form of quarantine.
4. Several Bavarian communities have stood up and said 'enough' on masks. Their chief criticism? Bavarian state rules say that if your town has a infection rate of 50 or above....school will only be conducted if all of the kids wear a mask. Part of this parting of ways is the idea that younger kids are not the delivery vehicle for Covid-19 (at least in the belief of locals).
This goes directly against the Premier President of Bavaria (Soder), and he's hyped up on the ban rules presently.
5. Higher rate of older Germans getting Covid-19? Some statistical data saying yes.
6. Locally in my town (Wiesbaden), they reported the 28th death since day one. 83-year old German gal. The locals point out....death surge in past two weeks....6 deaths in 13 days. Presently, there's 255 folks on some form of quarantine out of 291k residents.
7. Here in Hessen, lot of chatter among sport clubs in villages and towns. Cash flow from fests and weekend parties has dwindled over past eight months. Lot of clubs are nearing zero on funds.
8. German airline Condor is deep into bankruptcy, and working with the creditors to find some path toward operations. They'd like to find a trend for Germans in the winter period who want exotic travel.
9. Finally, this odd fraud story. Older gal in Bad Homburg....70 years old. She gets this call....her son is in serious Covid-19 trouble and the doctor wants to use high-cost experimental drugs which the health insurance program doesn't cover.....immediately. Without verifying or talking to the son....she comes up with a 5-digit sum of money, and some courier appears at the door to accept it. Well....she was faked out. The money is gone now.
This morning, the wife had business in Mainz....so I tagged along.
One of my more favorite stores in Germany....Conrad....is shutting down it's Mainz storefront (still doing business via the internet).
Conrad was the nearest thing you'd have to a Radio-Shack in Germany. For this shop, their downfall was the Covid-shutdown period, and they just never came back to the status they had prior to Covid-19.
But along the way, I ended up passing via the Bahnhof (railway station) around 9 AM.
There ought to be X-number of people passing through the place, and I'd suggest that it was more or less one-third (33-percent) of the normal people walking through the station.
Even at the McDonalds there....where I stopped for coffee....virtually no one standing there to buy anything.
I walked to the ramp area where the Wiesbaden train would be pulling in. There ought to be around 75 people there to board at this time of the morning....but at best, there were 15 people to board. Across the five ramps....same story....almost no one there in the waiting pattern for a train to roll in.
Walking out front of the Mainz station.....there's the tram and bus stands....where there ought to be 200 people at 9:30 AM waiting for their bus or tram to roll in. At best....maybe fifty folks there.
It's the first time since March that I've been in Mainz, and it makes one wonder just how bad the financial numbers are for local mass transit and the national railway.
The shops there in the station? There's around twenty different shops, and passing through the station....it's safe to say there's nothing much happening customer-wise. They are all suffering if this is the normal day to day operations landscape.
I spent yesterday at a discount mall (outdoors) about 30 minutes north of Frankfurt. So, there were two curious thing to note from this experience.
First, as you left the parking lot and came to the outdoor zone (roughly 50 shops)....here was the entry point with a mask-guard.
Yes....35-year old German woman in a guard-like uniform....just there to ensure you don't enter the zone without a mask.
Within the zone itself....a second roving mask-guard was to be noticed as well.
The second part of this experience was the attempt to enter various shops....where the sign on the front door of each noted how many people could enter at a time.
So you take a area of 100 square meters (1,075 sq ft) and the limit was two to three customers at a time. The larger shops (300 square meters)? Maybe five to six people.
I stood there watching crowds stand there in front of various shops....waiting for a chance to enter. It wasn't terribly cold (misty rain at the most), but I kept thinking....what happens in December with Christmas shopping? Would people play the waiting game, or just go home to order via on-line?
Are brick-and-mortar shops in serious jeopardy this year because of Covid ban rules?
At the end of this experience (nothing bought from the day visit)....my German wife had a negative perception of the ban rule shopping. I would imagine half the population is looking at the way that things work and shaking their head. In six weeks....Christmas shopping would start up, and it just doesn't look that thrilling.
No.
But in the past week, because of the infection rate climbing on Covid-19....you now start to see toilet paper bought on higher levels.
The state trade association in Hessen said yesterday.....stable supply and no reason to worry about a shortage.
It's bad enough on confidence though, that the Consumer Protection Minister (Hinz, Green Party) made a public statement to halt worry. She said: "There is enough toilet paper for everyone - every day. It won't be tight, it wasn't really tight in the spring either."
Me? In the basement, the wife (German) has around a 4-month supply of toilet paper sitting there. I would imagine that some Germans (based off their spring surge in purchases)....might have near 6 to 12 months of toilet paper sitting there.
No idea where this worry over the paper might come from.
Personally, I'd worry more about beer shortages.
1. City of Wiesbaden announced the update death count...since day one....now at 27. Latest victim was 85 years old. Vast majority of deaths in the city are individuals over 70 years old.
New infections for yesterday reported? 33 (remember Wiesbaden is a town of 291k residents). Number of folks on home or hospital quarantine? 196 presently.
2. Frankfurt city now has 60 German Army members assisting in the Corona paperwork/database efforts.
3. State of Hessen turned on 'sick-leave-by-phone' action again. Had been a big deal in the spring with limited use. Normally, you need to appear in front of a doctor, and he signs the note.
4. Big long mess to clean up at a Kassel (Hessen) refugee center. Massive testing done and around one-third of residents were Corona-positive. Authorities wanted a complete lock-down and quarantine of all folks. This apparently didn't settle well with the non-Corona folks and police had to be called in. Eventually, authorities were forced to allow non-positive folks to be moved out and away from the sick folks.
5. Border controls again? Well, it's openly discussed now in Bavaria....to prevent Covid-sick folks from entering the country. Fed decision? Apparently not, and it's just another demonstration how this is a state by state problem.
6. Country-wide, Germany is saying that they still have 9k empty intensive care beds standing by. Differs region by region.
7. Another complete shut-down looming?
Well...at some point (maybe by early November).....they will drag back up the shut-down business (done for 3 months earlier in the year), and call it something else but it'll be a basic standard shut-down period (my humble belief).
The economy, especially with Christmas holidays looming....probably can't handle a period of a shut-down. Will be a serious amount of frustration and disenchantment over this idea.
I spent the afternoon at Wiesbaden's shopping district, the walking district.
It is a bit noticeable that at least 20 storefronts are empty. Blame....somewhat on Covid shutdown earlier in the year, and simply more sales going on via the internet.
Regionally (here in the state of Hessen).....the basic rules came out over how you can finally reopen your disco or dance-hall operation. Roughly a hundred such operations exist in the state.
Ventilation or air cleansing equipment had to be part of the opening plan.
Added to this....the inspection folks wanted to make sure you had something to prevent folks on the dance floor. The apparent solution used....bring in couches for couples or groups to 'mingle'.
Paperwork drill with names and addresses....as required in bars? Yes.
It's been around eight months since closure started for the disco operations, and a lot of these were fairly close to bankruptcy. They are hoping that the customers come back.
In the past week, the chief of police for Berlin....has come out and said he wants bicycles in the city to have 'tags' (like car-tags).
Chief logic? Well....this goes to two things: (1) a lot more bike traffic around the city if you compared things to two or three decades ago, and (2) a lot more violations of law than noted in the previous decades.
The odds that the general public will agree to this? I'd say pretty near zero acceptance. To get the SPD, Greens and Linke Party (the group running the city presently) to agree to this? Also near zero (particularly if you asked Green Party enthusiasts).
If you haven't been around Germany since the 1980s....this bicycle topic is probably one of the bigger topics in large urban areas now. For every bicyclist I would have noted in 1985....there's probably ten 'bikers' on the street today (my humble opinion).
The violation discussion? If you wander off into any shopping zone/district (doesn't matter on city).....there are various signs up to note it's a non-rider area (you can push your bike through but riding it is forbidden).
Some cities (Mainz is a good example) have added bike lanes and tried to make the urban area more bike-friendly.
With the tag thing? I think you'd see the police mount unmanned cameras and try to use them to get the numbers off the bikes and simply mail a traffic ticket to the rider, and avoid arguments with bicyclists.
Before the war (WW II), under the Weimar Republic, there was this article (#48) which briefly talks over this power that the German President (not the Chancellor or the Bundestag, or states) had.
Under Article 48, the President of Germany could act without permission or authority of the Bundestag. One should note....Article 48 sat there from 1919, until 1933....then got 'lost'.
The beginning of the text:
"If a country does not fulfill the obligations incumbent on it according to the imperial constitution or the imperial laws, the imperial president can urge it to do so with the help of armed force."
Suspension of rights? That's in the next paragraph.
The text goes on to say that you have to notify the Bundestag of what you did. It doesn't give the Bundestag any tool to hinder or stop your action.
Why Article 48 matters? As you get into the fall of 1929 and the collapse of the German economic system.....the Bundestag could find any way to resolve the mess on their own....so the President acted. While probably doing the positive thing, it opened the door to criticism and another election....all bringing the Nazis closer to full control of Germany.
It's one of those things rarely brought up or discussed....unless you get some economic experts talking over 1929 and how the collapse occurred.
With all the hype going on about the US Supreme Court....I figured it was time to lay out the German mechanism....their Constitutional Court (Bundesverfassungsgericht).
The German rules set mandatory retirement for seats on the court at age 68 (period). No discussions, no waivers.
Once appointed, you serve for twelve years. At the conclusion....you leave.
Method of electing them? Your name is put up and the two levels of government (the Bundestag and the Bundesrat) vote you in.
Total number of seats? Sixteen (set by the Constitution). Yes, it actually says the number that can exist.
Location? Karlsruhr. It's been there since the end of the war. No discussions by the judges on moving to Berlin.
Judges identified to their parties? Yes. Current number of CDU-CSU judges of the sixteen? Seven. SPD members? Six. The Greens have two seats. The FDP have one seat.
Serious impact cases? They come and go. If you asked most Germans over the quantity per year....they'd probably suggest three or four cases which get top priority on some evening news piece. The other hundred decisions might make some part of the nightly news but it'd be a marginal discussion.
The ability of the general public to even name one single member of the court (16 members)? One would suggest that if you lined up a thousand Germans on the street and asked them to name one single member....fewer than ten would be able to do it.
From the lawyer profession....you might find 98-percent who can name the current 'President' of the court...Stephen Harbath....or the VP of the court....Doris Konig. Beyond that, the court members could walk into any pub...have a beer, and not be recognized.
The one oddity of the court system? They are divided into two groups....eight and eight. As cases come in....it's based on luck if you get assigned to group A or group B.
Political battles in the Bundestag or Bundesrat....like in the US? No. If they reached the US level....most of these folks would decline to participate in the hearing, and the system would fall apart.
The biggest impact case which led to internal discussions? About fifteen years ago, after 9-11....the German leadership made up a 'rule' that said that German military fighters could shoot-down a passenger plane if it was taken-over and threatened to crash into something. The government was sued over the idea.
The court examined everything and then briefly talked to three observations: (1) the German military, by law, is designed for relief missions....not military actions which are not permitted by the Constitution. (2) There cannot be a trade-off on shooting down a plane with passengers versus people in a building. (3) ONLY the federal government (not the state or city governments) can order the German military to participate in a relief action. So the shoot-down idea collapsed....with a lot of Germans standing there and wondering....why exactly were they paying taxes for the military to exist at that point.
1. From Berlin (reported by public TV RBB)....all this hype on the curfew chatter (shutting down restaurants, pubs and bars at 11 PM) has been picked up by the Green Party.
What the Greens openly say....there's marginal data to prove that these locations are creating more virus infections. The Greens also point out....there's virtually NO data to say in-door partying is more dangerous than out-door partying.
2. RBB also discussed a curious discussion going on. In the extreme far east of Berlin....those neighborhoods/districts....aren't having that big of a deal with new infections. Explanation? None. The data simply doesn't show them progressing like the mid-town area or the western part of Berlin.
3. New word creation: 'Generation Corona'. It involves young Germans who are frustrated with the rules, bans, and limited social contact.
In this group....no one really believes the police are going to do much on illegal parties or illegal contacts.
4. Total number of virus infections since day one, within Germany? 361,974....out of 83-million. A minimum of 290,000 are considered recovered at this point in time.
Well....if possible, just stay home (period). She's talking not only about tourism or weekend travel....she kinda means that you study each trip and limit your exposure.
So if you normally went on a four-hour shopping tour on Saturdays....her advice when surveyed....if possible...trim this back and limit your time in each store/grocery.
This message came out of the weekend podcast that she gives.
How many Germans listen to the podcast? That's more of a speculation thing. Out of 83-million....it might be fewer than half-a-million.
I sat and surveyed my travel behavior since day one. Over the past nine months....I've probably cut 80-percent of my outdoor travels. Those days on German rail and touring the region (I'm retired, so I have the time and resources)? Gone. The half-price Bahn-ticket I have? Worthless. Walks around Mainz or Wiesbaden? Cut to the absolute minimum.
Over a normal week, with the exception of the house occupants, and maybe the Post guy, or Amazon delivery folks....it's a very short list of people.
I suspect most Germans have gone at least half that distance in cutting travel already.
The Chancellor's message having much effect? No....not unless you go to a complete shut-down theme once again.
If you gaze at the Germany map (Focus has a great display and data explanation), with the 401 districts shown....with four Covid-19 color schemes (no real Covid issues, minor infection rate, increasing Covid, and 'bad-off' Covid)....you come to three conclusions.
1. Most all of the red districts ('bad-off') are in western Germany and the suburbs of Berlin. Eighty-three districts now in red.
2. There are around 15 districts showing virtually no real Covid issues). About the only thing you can get out of this data is that they are mostly rural districts....marginal tourism existing...and mostly all in the eastern sector (old DDR) of Germany.
3. Eleven districts are what you'd call bright red, meaning they are reaching a point where logic would dictate a complete shut-down order. The three worst hit districts? Berlin-Neukolln neighborhood, St Wendel, and Berchtsesgaden. Oddly enough, Bitburg follows the three.
This map likely to influence new decisions by the Berlin federal leadership in the next week? I'd virtually guarantee another Chancellor/state premier-president meeting occurring and serious new measures announced by Friday.
