For the past two hours, I've been pouring over news media commentary from within Germany and social media commentary by private folks. This Merkel 'shutdown-lite' discussion is getting a fair amount of coverage.
The blunt of the idea is that bars, clubs, and restaurants would go back to shutdown mode.....like they were in March, April, and May.
The length of this shutdown? Unknown. No one is openly discussing this. It might be for four weeks....it might be for four months.
Accepted by all sixteen German states? I would go out on the limb, and suggest at least four states saying generally 'NO' to the idea. Basic reason? Maybe for bars and clubs, it might make sense, but no data (no scientific support) suggests that Covid-19 is surging because of restaurant rules/social distancing.
What data is saying....without any doubt....wedding parties (of 100 to 200 guests) are one of the chief ways that the virus is getting passed around. Maybe if the Chancellor declared that all guests of wedding parties had to submit for a virus test within 48 hours after the party.....that might be a major piece of the solution. So far, no one in the Berlin-political scene has wanted to suggest that.
What I generally expect?
Once you go to the shutdown-lite plan, and bars/clubs close.....go expect a huge number of young people to party it up.....in the forests or in older warehouse buildings. Expect older guys to put up a social bar in their basement and bring a dozen friends in to socialize or play darts/pool. You will just chase them from one situation, to another.
Cooperating or respecting the police? No, you are simply dragging the police into another mess where the general public doesn't respect them for the job they are doing.
So I'll suggest this....the trend-line drops slightly, but continues onward....which requires by late November....Shutdown-Extra-Lite. Germans then sit around and start laughing, realizing the 'joke'.
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