Friday, October 23, 2020

Germany and Covid-19: 23 Oct 2020

 1. Lot of chatter going on that at 20,000 new infections per day.....politicians making some threat of a complete shut-down (like in March timeframe). Support and enthusiasm this time around? I would suggest that 20-percent of Germans aren't going to be cooperative and police will be doing a lot of extra arrests/detentions this time around. Timeframe? At the current rate....it's no more than two weeks away. 

2. Biontech (vaccine company from Germany) hints that they will be ready before Christmas to start vaccinations. I should note....it's a regional company out of Mainz. As far as I can see....it's probably the only company that will be implementing this in Germany in 2020. The rest are spring of 2021. 

3. 11,714 new infections reported in a 24-hour period, ending last night (Thursday). 

4. Last night via public news....the journalists laid out this one odd fact......no one from the government can say any factual data exists to point toward hotels, train rides, or bus trips increasing the occurrence of infection. Home connections and school attendance can be pointed at....in terms of a higher degree of infection. 

5. The higher rate of infection translating over to higher death by the virus rates? Yes. 

6. Sealing off high-risk areas? This is now being openly discussed by politicians. It's basically the idea that you'd have a town of 3,000 residents, and maybe 200 infected, and you'd just shut the whole town off (entirely). I could see smaller towns and this working....but doing this in Frankfurt or Mainz? No....it'd be near impossible. 

7. A second speech yesterday by the Chancellor.....stay home unless you have urgent business. General population viewing this.....split. I'd say virtually everyone has cut back on trips outside the home....some by 70-percent...some by 30 percent. To reach the level that she is talking about? Virtually impossible to get that type of public support. 

8. Five worst areas for infection now: Berchtesgaden, middle neighborhoods of Berlin, Berlin-Neukolln, Rottal-Inn, Solingen. 

9. Are masks over-rated? It's a curious question, and the chief of the German Medical Association (Reinhardt) basically said 'yes'. That got a lot of pro-masks folks all hyped up. They felt he should resign from his position. The science behind all of this? Marginally existing, and it's not something that university PhD types ever sat down to pursue as a research project. One of the issues to this discussion is the quality problem....going from very poor (non-effective) to very good (effective). If you pursued this and noted the choices of masks....only the 10-Euro masks (KN-95 types) would be recommended (my gut feeling).

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